Try the model
FSU

Florida State 13 at Stanford 20

STAN
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Stanford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:04 · Aidan Flintoft punt for 45 yds , Lawayne McCoy returns for 32 yds to the FSU 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialDefense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Pregame prior−10.6Home team on offense+17.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+13.0Garbage-time factor+8.2Score differential+2.3Defense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:13: Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 7 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK) — STAN win probability +5.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:53: Emmet Kenney 26 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +4.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:40: Tommy Castellanos run for 8 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK) — FSU win probability +10.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: Defense has -4 timeouts left).
  4. TD · Q3 3:02: Cole Tabb run for 1 yd for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK) — STAN win probability +15.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 9:21: Jake Weinberg 33 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +17.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7FSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 13:45FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:41STAN 4th & 5 at FSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:25FSU 4th & 12 at STAN 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%
    38% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:34FSU 4th & 6 at STAN 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:00FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:45STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:30FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:53STAN 4th & 8 at FSU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−5.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:48STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:05FSU 4th & 15 at STAN 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    57.9%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:21FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−4.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:04STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:34FSU 4th & 1 at STAN 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−3.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−11.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:21FSU 4th & 8 at STAN 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−7.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:43STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−4.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:21FSU 4th & 2 at STAN 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%−0.9
    84% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−12.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:46STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:26FSU 4th & 8 at STAN 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%−3.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 9:13STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:40FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:02STAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1588% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
12.3%
(14:59) PENALTY FSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from FSU25 to FSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:51
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
12.4%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 7 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
12.6%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Micahi DanzySimilar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
12.6%
Tommy Castellanos run for 1 yd to the FSU 28Similar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
12.9%
Mac Chiumento punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Liam Thorpe at the STAN 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 5:5713% → 16%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
12.9%
Micah Ford run for 5 yds to the STAN 23Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+12
13.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 12 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
13.5%
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the STAN 37Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+17
13.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 17 yds to the FSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
14.3%
Stanford Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 14
50
+18
14.3%
Cole Tabb run for 18 yds to the FSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
14.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Cole TabbSimilar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
15.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 9 yds to the FSU 23Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+4
15.1%
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the FSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
15.6%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the FSU 15Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+1
15.8%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the FSU 14Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
16.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Marcus BrownSimilar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
16.3%
Emmet Kenney 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:1184% → 82%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
16.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 9 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
16.2%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the FSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
16.5%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 8 yds to the FSU 44Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+2
16.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the FSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
16.8%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 18 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
16.8%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
16.8%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+1
17.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 1 yd to the STAN 33Similar
Q1 4:31
4TH & 7
OPP 33
-5
18.0%
(04:30) PENALTY FSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from STAN33 to STAN38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 12
OPP 38
+57
18.3%
Jake Weinberg 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:4419% → 18%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
18.5%
Cole Tabb run for a loss of 3 yards to the STAN 36Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
18.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Caden HighSimilar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
18.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass intercepted Earl Little Jr. return for no gain to the FSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:5481% → 81%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.9%
Tommy Castellanos run for 2 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
19.2%
Ousmane Kromah run for 11 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
18.8%
Ousmane Kromah run for 2 yds to the FSU 40Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-1
18.9%
Ousmane Kromah run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 39Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+20
19.5%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 20 yds to the STAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
18.9%
Ousmane Kromah run for 5 yds to the STAN 36Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+2
19.1%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+9
19.5%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 9 yds to the STAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
19.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for no gain to the STAN 25Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
19.6%
Tommy Castellanos run for 4 yds to the STAN 21Similar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
20.0%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Jayvan BoggsSimilar
Q2 14:34
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
19.3%
Jake Weinberg 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:0921% → 31%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
20.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 16 yds to the STAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
21.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for 29 yds to the FSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
22.9%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the FSU 26Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
23.4%
Micah Ford run for 5 yds to the FSU 21Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+3
23.1%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the FSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
24.2%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the FSU 17Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+5
24.4%
Bryce Farrell run for 5 yds to the FSU 12Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
24.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Cole TabbSimilar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+5
23.5%
(10:39) Kenney,Emmet field goal attempt from 30 yards NO GOOD (H: Flintoft,Aidan, LS: Warford,Peyton), clock 10:35 PENALTY FSU Offside (Joseph,Edwin) 5 yards from FSU12 to FSU07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
25.0%
Cole Tabb run for 2 yds to the FSU 5Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
25.6%
Cole Tabb run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 7Similar
Q2 9:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
30.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 7 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0770% → 68%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.8%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 4 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
30.0%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
31.0%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
31.9%
Mac Chiumento punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Liam Thorpe at the STAN 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0737% → 38%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
37.0%
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
38.2%
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the STAN 38Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
38.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Jordan OnovugheSimilar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
37.6%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Squirrel White at the FSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0366% → 63%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
34.0%
Jaylin Lucas run for no gain to the FSU 13Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
34.8%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the FSU 18Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
35.8%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 5
OWN 18
-5
36.6%
(05:43) PENALTY FSU False Start (Suarez,Willy) 5 yards from FSU18 to FSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 10
OWN 13
+26
36.9%
Mac Chiumento punt for 45 yds , Liam Thorpe returns for 26 yds to the FSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:3143% → 48%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
42.7%
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+3
43.3%
Cole Tabb run for 3 yds to the FSU 25Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+15
42.9%
(04:17) Shotgun Gulbranson,Ben pass incomplete deep middle to Doyle,Brendan thrown to FSU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (Arnoux,Shamar) 15 yards from FSU25 to FSU10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
44.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sam RoushSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-12
44.3%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by K.J. Kirkland for a loss of 12 yards to the FSU 22Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
+14
43.1%
Cole Tabb run for 14 yds to the FSU 8Similar
Q2 2:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
47.6%
Emmet Kenney 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 2:0758% → 66%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.6%
Tommy Castellanos run for 5 yds to the FSU 30Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
41.2%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 4 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
42.2%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 6 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
44.7%
Tommy Castellanos run for 5 yds to the FSU 45Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
44.5%
Tommy Castellanos run for 3 yds to the FSU 48Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+2
45.1%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
50
+37
43.8%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 37 yds to the STAN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
42.0%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 5 yds to the STAN 8Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
44.9%
(01:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Castellanos,Tommy rush left for 3 yards gain to the STAN05, out of bounds at STAN05 PENALTY FSU Holding offsetting STAN Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
45.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Lawayne McCoySimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
34.4%
Tommy Castellanos run for 8 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
36.9%
E. Brown takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0734% → 36%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
34.4%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Sam Roush for 11 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
36.9%
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the STAN 40Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-10
38.6%
(14:01) Tabb,Cole rush middle for 7 yards gain to the STAN47 (Barker,Ashlynd) PENALTY STAN Holding (Anderson,Fisher) 10 yards from STAN40 to STAN30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 16
OWN 30
0
36.7%
Elijah Brown pass incomplete to Bryce FarrellSimilar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+8
35.5%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Marcus Brown for 8 yds to the STAN 38Similar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+16
36.0%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 57 yds , Squirrel White returns for 16 yds to the FSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:3463% → 60%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
37.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+12
37.7%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 12 yds to the FSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
37.2%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 8 yds to the FSU 23Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+1
36.6%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the FSU 24Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
37.8%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the FSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+38
38.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 38 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
35.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Jayvan BoggsSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-5
35.4%
Florida State Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the STAN 41Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 15
OPP 41
0
38.4%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Lawayne McCoySimilar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 15
OPP 41
0
40.4%
Mac Chiumento punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15TD
17 plays · 94 yds · 6:4939% → 69%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
39.4%
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the STAN 10Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+5
40.3%
Cole Tabb run for 5 yds to the STAN 15Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+1
40.0%
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the STAN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
42.3%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Sam Roush for 8 yds to the STAN 24Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+3
43.8%
Cole Tabb run for 3 yds to the STAN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
44.2%
Elijah Brown pass incomplete to Sam RoushSimilar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
43.6%
Sedrick Irvin run for 1 yd to the STAN 28Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+28
42.9%
Elijah Brown pass complete to CJ Williams for 28 yds to the FSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
50.1%
(05:18) Shotgun Brown,Elijah pass incomplete deep left to Roush,Sam thrown to FSU23 PENALTY FSU Roughing The Passer (Williams,James) 15 yards from FSU44 to FSU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
51.0%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Sam Roush for 10 yds to the FSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
51.6%
Cole Tabb run for 15 yds to the FSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
52.0%
(04:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Elijah pass incomplete short right to High,Caden thrown to FSU00 PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (Wilson,Jerry) 2 yards from FSU04 to FSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
52.2%
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the FSU 1Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.0%
Cole Tabb run for no gain to the FSU 1Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.0%
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:2136% → 29%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
64.0%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
65.6%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the FSU 29Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-5
67.6%
Tommy Castellanos sacked by Scotty Edwards for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 24Similar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
70.9%
Mac Chiumento punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Liam Thorpe at the STAN 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:0976% → 81%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
75.9%
Cole Tabb run for 3 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
79.1%
Cole Tabb run for 5 yds to the STAN 36Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+1
78.0%
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the STAN 37Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+5
77.7%
PENALTY FSU Offside (Lyons,Daniel) 5 yards from STAN37 to STAN42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
82.0%
Cole Tabb run for 3 yds to the STAN 45Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
82.3%
Elijah Brown pass incomplete to CJ WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
81.3%
Elijah Brown pass incomplete to CJ WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+32
80.8%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 45 yds , Lawayne McCoy returns for 32 yds to the FSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:2228% → 28%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+31
71.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Ousmane Kromah for 31 yds to the STAN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
67.8%
Tommy Castellanos run for 6 yds to the STAN 21Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 4
OPP 21
0
68.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Lawayne McCoySimilar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+3
70.1%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the STAN 18Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+2
73.4%
Tommy Castellanos run for 2 yds to the STAN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
69.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 18Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+1
71.0%
Tommy Castellanos run for 1 yd to the STAN 17Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+3
77.2%
Tommy Castellanos run for 3 yds to the STAN 14Similar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+33
72.5%
Jake Weinberg 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3381% → 86%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
80.6%
Elijah Brown sacked by Jayson Jenkins for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 18Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
81.0%
Elijah Brown pass incomplete to Myles LibmanSimilar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+6
80.4%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Sam Roush for 6 yds to the STAN 24Similar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+3
85.7%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 54 yds , Squirrel White returns for 3 yds to the FSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:0620% → 20%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 5 yds to the FSU 30Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+48
79.4%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 48 yds to the STAN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
74.6%
Jaylin Lucas run for 3 yds to the STAN 19Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+5
75.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 5 yds to the STAN 14Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
78.5%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+1
80.3%
Tommy Castellanos run for 1 yd to the STAN 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2092% → 93%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
91.5%
Elijah Brown run for 4 yds to the STAN 17Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+1
91.4%
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the STAN 18Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
93.8%
Elijah Brown pass incomplete to Marcus BrownSimilar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
93.0%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Squirrel White at the FSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 22 yds · 2:0417% → 14%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
83.5%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 3 yds to the FSU 42Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
83.5%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Micahi DanzySimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+12
84.6%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 12 yds to the STAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
82.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Lawayne McCoySimilar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-10
81.1%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Castellanos,Tommy rush middle for 35 yards gain to the STAN11 (Leigber,Mitch) PENALTY FSU Holding (Pettus,Micah) 10 yards from STAN46 to FSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
81.9%
Kevin Sperry run for 2 yds to the STAN 39Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
81.3%
Kevin Sperry pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for no gain to the STAN 39Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
84.4%
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Sperry,Kevin pass incomplete short left thrown to STAN25 QB hurried by Patterson,Clay PENALTY FSU Intentional Grounding (Sperry,Kevin). NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
86.2%
Kevin Sperry pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:1598% → 97%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
98.0%
Cole Tabb run for 12 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
98.1%
Cole Tabb run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 11
50
+6
98.0%
Cole Tabb run for 6 yds to the FSU 44Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-5
97.0%
PENALTY STAN Delay Of Game 5 yards from FSU44 to FSU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+16
97.0%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FSU 20 , Squirrel White returns for 16 yds to the FSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24END OF GAME
10 plays · 79 yds · 0:5911% → 23%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.7%
Kevin Sperry pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
89.3%
Kevin Sperry run for 15 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
88.2%
Kevin Sperry pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
50
-5
85.9%
PENALTY FSU False Start (Pettus,Micah) 5 yards from STAN50 to FSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 15
OWN 45
-7
88.1%
Kevin Sperry sacked by Zach Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the FSU 38Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 22
OWN 38
0
89.0%
Kevin Sperry pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 22
OWN 38
+53
89.5%
Kevin Sperry pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 53 yds to the STAN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
79.3%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Sperry,Kevin pass incomplete short right to Robinson,Duce thrown to STAN00 PENALTY STAN Pass Interference (Ojarikre,Che) 7 yards from STAN09 to STAN02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
76.8%
Kevin Sperry pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 1 yd to the STAN 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+23.2
FG · Q4 9:21
Jake Weinberg 33 yd FG GOOD
-17.8
TD · Q3 3:02
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
+15.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com