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LOU

Louisville 24 at Miami 21

MIA
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 17, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:05 · David Chapeau punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Pregame prior+1.9Home team on offense−16.8Garbage-time factor−3.9Score differential−4.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:19: Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK) — MIA win probability +3.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 10:58: Cooper Ranvier 48 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +6.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 1:51: Carter Davis 41 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +4.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:27: Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 36 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK) — LOU win probability +31.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:37: M. Toney run for 12 yds for a TD (M. Toney pass to C. Daniels for Two-Point Conversion) — MIA win probability +46.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Offense has -3 timeouts left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:41LOU 4th & 2 at MIA 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    24.7%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:15MIA 4th & 17 at MIA 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:39LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:01LOU 4th & 9 at MIA 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:30LOU 4th & 12 at LOU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:30LOU 4th & 12 at LOU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:56MIA 4th & 9 at LOU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−6.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:04LOU 4th & 2 at MIA 45, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−3.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:20MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 17, down 4
    Close callPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:58LOU 4th & 3 at MIA 30, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.8%−1.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:30MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:43LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−3.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:51MIA 4th & 7 at LOU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−11.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:34MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.9%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:50MIA 4th & 4 at LOU 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−2.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:05LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:55LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:09LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:19MIA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:27LOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:37MIA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    32.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5923% → 27%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
76.8%
Isaac Brown run for 11 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
76.7%
Caullin Lacy run for 1 yd to the LOU 37Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+11
76.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 11 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
76.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Isaac Brown for 3 yds to the MIA 49Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+9
76.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 9 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
75.8%
Isaac Brown run for 28 yds to the MIA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
75.5%
Deuce Adams run for 4 yds to the MIA 8Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
75.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 4 yds to the MIA 4Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
75.2%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Nate KuriskySimilar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+3
75.4%
David Chapeau run for 3 yds to the MIA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.9%
Miller Moss run for 1 yd for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2573% → 72%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 4 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-15
73.2%
Miami Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the MIA 15Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+3
72.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 3 yds to the MIA 18Similar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+16
71.9%
Dylan Joyce punt for 44 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 16 yds to the MIA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:5829% → 33%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
71.4%
Caullin Lacy run for 1 yd to the MIA 45Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+7
71.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 7 yds to the MIA 38Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
70.5%
Deuce Adams run for 3 yds to the MIA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
66.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 35 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3868% → 70%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
67.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 30 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+39
68.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 39 yds to the LOU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
68.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the LOU 3Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
66.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the LOU 2Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:3032% → 33%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
68.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 11 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
67.3%
Keyjuan Brown run for 2 yds to the LOU 38Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
66.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Dacari Collins for 7 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
65.8%
Miller Moss run for no gain to the LOU 45Similar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
65.6%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Dacari CollinsSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
65.7%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Jaleel SkinnerSimilar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
65.9%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Dacari CollinsSimilar
Q2 14:39
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
66.8%
Carter Schwartz punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:3067% → 66%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
67.1%
(14:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Fletcher Jr.,Mark rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MIA13 (Watts,Antonio; Quinn,T.J.) PENALTY MIA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Toney,Malachi) 3 yards from MIA07 to MIA04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+1
66.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 5Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+13
66.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 13 yds to the MIA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
65.8%
Carson Beck pass intercepted Antonio Watts return for no gain to the LOU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:5637% → 34%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
62.9%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 35Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+7
62.2%
Isaac Brown run for 7 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
60.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 11 yds to the MIA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
63.2%
Keyjuan Brown run for no gain to the MIA 47Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-11
62.8%
Miller Moss sacked by Keionte Scott for a loss of 11 yards to the LOU 42Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 21
OWN 42
+12
64.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds to the MIA 46Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
65.8%
David Chapeau punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8INT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4668% → 66%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
67.8%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Bell,Markel) 5 yards from MIA11 to MIA06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+14
68.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Alex Bauman for 14 yds to the MIA 20Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+12
67.9%
Jordan Lyle run for 12 yds to the MIA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
66.6%
Jordan Lyle run for no gain to the MIA 32Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
66.0%
Carson Beck pass intercepted Jabari Mack return for no gain to the LOU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3937% → 35%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
63.1%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 30Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 12
OWN 30
-5
63.7%
Isaac Brown run for 10 yds to the LOU 40 Louisville Penalty, Personal Foul (Chris Bell) to the LOU 25Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 17
OWN 25
0
63.7%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 17
OWN 25
+5
64.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 5 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
65.0%
David Chapeau punt for 35 ydsSimilar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
65.0%
David Chapeau punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:2565% → 68%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
65.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 5 yds to the MIA 35Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-10
65.7%
Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIA 30Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+61
64.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 61 yds to the LOU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
66.0%
Jordan Lyle run for no gain to the LOU 9Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
65.4%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
64.2%
Carson Beck run for no gain to the LOU 9Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
68.2%
Carter Davis 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 1:4631% → 30%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
69.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 11 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
68.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the LOU 39Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
67.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Isaac Brown for 3 yds to the LOU 42Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
67.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 5 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
66.7%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
66.9%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Dacari CollinsSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+8
67.8%
Isaac Brown run for 8 yds to the MIA 45Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
69.6%
David Chapeau punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
65.2%
(00:03) Kneel down by #2/#2 Miami (FL) at MIA19 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2861% → 58%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
61.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 12Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
60.6%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+5
59.3%
Carson Beck run for 5 yds to the MIA 17Similar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 3
OWN 17
+8
58.3%
Dylan Joyce punt for 55 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 8 yds to the LOU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:0842% → 52%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
57.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 13 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
55.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Dacari Collins for 14 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
55.7%
Isaac Brown run for 6 yds to the MIA 31Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+1
53.5%
Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the MIA 30Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 3
OPP 30
-18
54.6%
Miller Moss pass intercepted Jakobe Thomas return for 18 yds to the MIA 41Similar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
47.7%
Cooper Ranvier 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:1849% → 46%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
48.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 4 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
49.0%
CharMar Brown run for 5 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
49.0%
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
48.6%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
48.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 5 yds to the MIA 41Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-1
48.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 40Similar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
45.6%
Dylan Joyce punt for 52 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for no gain to the LOU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:4756% → 57%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
43.8%
PENALTY LOU Illegal Substitution 4 yards from LOU08 to LOU04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+8
43.7%
Isaac Brown run for 8 yds to the LOU 12Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+8
43.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 8 yds to the LOU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
41.7%
(06:10) Shotgun Brown,Isaac rush middle for 0 yards to the LOU20 (Moten,Ahmad) PENALTY LOU Holding (Moussa,Mahamane) 10 yards from LOU20 to LOU10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
41.4%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 20
OWN 10
0
41.8%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+12
42.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Keyjuan Brown for 12 yds to the LOU 22Similar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
42.6%
Carter Schwartz punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:4241% → 45%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
41.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 44Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+30
39.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 15 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST down Louisville Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Wesley Bailey) to the LOU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
43.6%
Malachi Toney run for 2 yds to the LOU 24Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+6
43.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the LOU 18Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 2
OPP 18
-5
40.4%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Okunlola,Samson) 5 yards from LOU18 to LOU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
40.5%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q3 1:51
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+41
45.2%
Carter Davis 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1857% → 85%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.4%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
43.9%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Nate KuriskySimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
45.1%
Isaac Brown run for 20 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
39.4%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 42Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+15
40.6%
Isaac Brown run for 15 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
38.0%
(14:59) PENALTY LOU Illegal Snap (Nygra,Pete) 5 yards from MIA43 to MIA48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+4
39.3%
Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the MIA 44Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+8
37.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the MIA 36Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+36
15.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 36 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19INT
13 plays · 31 yds · 5:2619% → 13%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
18.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 6 yds to the MIA 31Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
19.3%
Jordan Lyle run for 1 yd to the MIA 32Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
16.9%
Carson Beck run for 2 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
15.8%
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
17.2%
Carson Beck run for no gain to the MIA 36Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
14.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 9 yds to the MIA 45Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-10
14.5%
(09:51) Shotgun Brown,CharMar rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA48 (Perry,Kalib) PENALTY MIA Holding (Fletcher Jr.,Mark) 10 yards from MIA45 to MIA35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+15
12.8%
(09:22) Shotgun Beck,Carson pass intercepted by Evans Jr.,JoJo at MIA47 PENALTY LOU Roughing The Passer (Lubin,Clev) 15 yards from MIA35 to MIA50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
50
+2
14.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
15.0%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Mark Fletcher Jr.Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+4
14.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 4 yds to the LOU 44Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 4
OPP 44
-5
13.1%
Carson Beck pass intercepted JoJo Evans Jr. return for 5 yds to the LOU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
10.0%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 12 Isaac Brown fumbled, recovered by MIA Zechariah PoyserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
56.7%
M. Toney run for 12 yds for a TD (M. Toney pass to C. Daniels for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:2160% → 68%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
40.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 8 yds to the LOU 33Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
36.3%
Keyjuan Brown run for 2 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
35.6%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Nate KuriskySimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
35.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 12 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
31.3%
Keyjuan Brown run for 6 yds to the MIA 47Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-4
27.6%
Keyjuan Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 49Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
29.0%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
32.3%
David Chapeau punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23INT
15 plays · 54 yds · 3:2336% → 25%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
35.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 2 yds to the MIA 17Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
34.8%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Malachi ToneySimilar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-5
33.0%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Lofton,Elija) 5 yards from MIA17 to MIA12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+17
32.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 17 yds to the MIA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
36.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 3 yds to the MIA 32Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+11
32.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 11 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
24.1%
Carson Beck run for 1 yd to the MIA 44Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+6
23.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 3
50
+8
22.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 8 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
23.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 3 yds to the LOU 39Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
21.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Jordan Lyle for 6 yds to the LOU 33Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
24.4%
Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the LOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
25.2%
Carson Beck pass intercepted T.J. Capers return for no gain to the LOU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:2994% → 94%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
5.8%
(00:28) Kneel down by Louisville at LOU29 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 11
OWN 29
-1
6.2%
(00:28) Kneel down by Louisville at LOU28 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 28
-1
5.6%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:37
M. Toney run for 12 yds for a TD (M. Toney pass to C. Daniels for Two-Point Conversion)
+46.7
TD · Q4 13:27
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 36 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
-31.5
FG · Q3 10:58
Cooper Ranvier 48 yd FG GOOD
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com