LOU
Louisville 24 at Miami 21
MIA2025 · Week 8 · Oct 17, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
LOU · Drive 1TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
73.8%
0.0
Q1 14:54
Isaac Brown run for 11 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST down
72.5%
-1.4
Q1 14:18
Caullin Lacy run for 1 yd to the LOU 37
71.3%
-1.2
Q1 13:34
Miller Moss pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 11 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST down
71.3%
0.0
Q1 13:05
Miller Moss pass complete to Isaac Brown for 3 yds to the MIA 49
69.6%
-1.7
Q1 12:29
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 9 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST down
69.4%
-0.2
Q1 11:51
Isaac Brown run for 28 yds to the MIA 12 for a 1ST down
69.2%
-0.1
Q1 11:11
Deuce Adams run for 4 yds to the MIA 8
69.2%
0.0
Q1 10:32
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 4 yds to the MIA 4
69.2%
0.0
Q1 9:56
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Nate Kurisky
69.2%
0.0
Q1 9:41
David Chapeau run for 3 yds to the MIA 1 for a 1ST down
69.9%
+0.7
Q1 8:55
Miller Moss run for 1 yd for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
53.2%
-16.7
Q1 8:55
Timeout Miami, clock 08:55
57.1%
+3.9
MIA · Drive 2PUNT · 5 plays · -7 yds
Q1 8:55
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
54.4%
-2.8
Q1 8:40
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 4 yds to the MIA 29
57.1%
+2.7
Q1 8:28
Miami Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the MIA 15
57.2%
+0.1
Q1 7:56
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 3 yds to the MIA 18
57.2%
0.0
Q1 7:15
Dylan Joyce punt for 44 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 16 yds to the MIA 46
57.2%
0.0
LOU · Drive 3TD · 5 plays · 46 yds
Q1 7:07
Caullin Lacy run for 1 yd to the MIA 45
52.9%
-4.2
Q1 6:30
Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 7 yds to the MIA 38
51.7%
-1.2
Q1 5:47
Deuce Adams run for 3 yds to the MIA 35 for a 1ST down
51.3%
-0.4
Q1 5:09
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 35 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
33.7%
-17.6
Q1 5:09
Timeout Miami, clock 05:09
40.8%
+7.2
MIA · Drive 4TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q1 5:09
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
35.4%
-5.4
Q1 4:57
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 30 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST down
40.8%
+5.4
Q1 4:26
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 39 yds to the LOU 6 for a 1ST down
42.4%
+1.5
Q1 3:45
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the LOU 3
43.4%
+1.0
Q1 2:58
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the LOU 2
43.4%
0.0
Q1 2:19
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
58.0%
+14.7
Q1 2:19
Timeout Miami, clock 02:19
52.9%
-5.1
LOU · Drive 5PUNT · 10 plays · 21 yds
Q1 2:19
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
56.3%
+3.4
Q1 2:09
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 11 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST down
52.9%
-3.4
Q1 1:31
Keyjuan Brown run for 2 yds to the LOU 38
50.6%
-2.2
Q1 0:52
Miller Moss pass complete to Dacari Collins for 7 yds to the LOU 45
49.7%
-0.9
Q1 0:00
Miller Moss run for no gain to the LOU 45
49.2%
-0.5
Q2 15:00
Timeout Miami, clock 15:00
46.0%
-3.2
Q2 14:57
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Dacari Collins
46.0%
0.0
Q2 14:53
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Jaleel Skinner
46.1%
+0.1
Q2 14:47
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Dacari Collins
46.1%
0.0
Q2 14:39
Carter Schwartz punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 7
46.4%
+0.3
MIA · Drive 6INT · 4 plays · 11 yds
Q2 14:34
(14:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Fletcher Jr.,Mark rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MIA13 (Watts,Antonio; Quinn,T.J.) PENALTY MIA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Toney,Malachi) 3 yards from MIA07 to MIA04. NO PLAY.
53.5%
+7.1
Q2 14:04
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 5
53.5%
0.0
Q2 13:25
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 13 yds to the MIA 18 for a 1ST down
53.5%
0.0
Q2 13:04
Carson Beck pass intercepted Antonio Watts return for no gain to the LOU 32
53.5%
0.0
LOU · Drive 7PUNT · 8 plays · 22 yds
Q2 13:04
Timeout Miami, clock 13:04
47.5%
-6.0
Q2 12:57
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 35
47.5%
0.0
Q2 12:17
Isaac Brown run for 7 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST down
47.5%
0.0
Q2 11:38
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 11 yds to the MIA 47 for a 1ST down
46.1%
-1.4
Q2 10:59
Keyjuan Brown run for no gain to the MIA 47
46.1%
0.0
Q2 10:21
Miller Moss sacked by Keionte Scott for a loss of 11 yards to the LOU 42
44.9%
-1.2
Q2 9:35
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds to the MIA 46
44.9%
0.0
Q2 9:01
David Chapeau punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 11
45.3%
+0.3
MIA · Drive 8INT · 6 plays · 21 yds
Q2 9:01
Timeout Miami, clock 09:01
57.0%
+11.7
Q2 9:01
PENALTY MIA False Start (Bell,Markel) 5 yards from MIA11 to MIA06. NO PLAY.
57.0%
0.0
Q2 8:48
Carson Beck pass complete to Alex Bauman for 14 yds to the MIA 20
57.0%
0.0
Q2 8:30
Jordan Lyle run for 12 yds to the MIA 32 for a 1ST down
57.0%
0.0
Q2 7:59
Jordan Lyle run for no gain to the MIA 32
54.1%
-2.9
Q2 7:15
Carson Beck pass intercepted Jabari Mack return for no gain to the LOU 32
54.1%
0.0
LOU · Drive 9PUNT · 6 plays · -2 yds
Q2 7:09
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 30
44.1%
-10.0
Q2 6:39
Isaac Brown run for 10 yds to the LOU 40 Louisville Penalty, Personal Foul (Chris Bell) to the LOU 25
44.1%
0.0
Q2 6:16
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Caullin Lacy
44.1%
0.0
Q2 6:07
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 5 yds to the LOU 30
44.1%
0.0
Q2 5:30
David Chapeau punt for 35 yds
44.1%
0.0
Q2 5:30
David Chapeau punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 30
44.1%
0.0
MIA · Drive 10FG · 9 plays · 61 yds
Q2 5:30
Timeout Miami, clock 05:30
51.7%
+7.6
Q2 5:21
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 5 yds to the MIA 35
51.7%
0.0
Q2 4:51
Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIA 30
51.7%
0.0
Q2 4:16
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 61 yds to the LOU 9 for a 1ST down
51.7%
0.0
Q2 3:28
Jordan Lyle run for no gain to the LOU 9
54.7%
+3.0
Q2 2:49
Carson Beck pass incomplete to CJ Daniels
54.4%
-0.3
Q2 2:35
Carson Beck run for no gain to the LOU 9
54.1%
-0.2
Q2 2:00
Timeout Miami, clock 02:00
53.6%
-0.5
Q2 1:56
Carter Davis 27 yd FG GOOD
65.2%
+11.6
LOU · Drive 11PUNT · 10 plays · 30 yds
Q2 1:56
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
63.1%
-2.1
Q2 1:50
Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 11 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST down
57.4%
-5.7
Q2 1:33
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the LOU 39
56.9%
-0.5
Q2 1:26
Miller Moss pass complete to Isaac Brown for 3 yds to the LOU 42
56.2%
-0.6
Q2 1:21
Miller Moss pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 5 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST down
55.9%
-0.3
Q2 1:02
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris Bell
55.7%
-0.3
Q2 0:58
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Dacari Collins
55.7%
0.0
Q2 0:50
Isaac Brown run for 8 yds to the MIA 45
55.7%
0.0
Q2 0:12
Timeout Louisville, clock 00:12
53.4%
-2.3
Q2 0:04
David Chapeau punt for 45 yds for a touchback
53.4%
0.0
MIA · Drive 12END OF HALF · 2 plays · -1 yds
Q2 0:00
(00:03) Kneel down by #2/#2 Miami (FL) at MIA19 for loss of 1 yard.
58.0%
+4.6
Q3 14:55
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds , Keelan Marion return for 19 yds to the MIA 46 Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (9 Yards) to the MIA 10
54.6%
-3.4
MIA · Drive 13PUNT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q3 14:48
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 12
59.7%
+5.1
Q3 14:16
Carson Beck pass incomplete to CJ Daniels
59.7%
0.0
Q3 14:05
Carson Beck run for 5 yds to the MIA 17
59.7%
0.0
Q3 13:20
Dylan Joyce punt for 55 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 8 yds to the LOU 36
59.2%
-0.5
LOU · Drive 14FG · 7 plays · 34 yds
Q3 13:06
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 13 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST down
53.2%
-6.0
Q3 12:24
Miller Moss pass complete to Dacari Collins for 14 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST down
52.0%
-1.2
Q3 12:05
Isaac Brown run for 6 yds to the MIA 31
51.9%
-0.1
Q3 11:31
Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the MIA 30
51.6%
-0.3
Q3 11:03
Miller Moss pass intercepted Jakobe Thomas return for 18 yds to the MIA 41
49.9%
-1.7
Q3 10:58
Cooper Ranvier 48 yd FG GOOD
39.4%
-10.5
Q3 10:58
Timeout Miami, clock 10:58
58.4%
+18.9
MIA · Drive 15PUNT · 9 plays · 15 yds
Q3 10:58
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
39.2%
-19.2
Q3 10:48
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 4 yds to the MIA 29
47.7%
+8.4
Q3 10:22
CharMar Brown run for 5 yds to the MIA 34
47.7%
0.0
Q3 9:45
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST down
47.5%
-0.2
Q3 9:07
Carson Beck pass incomplete to CJ Daniels
47.5%
0.0
Q3 9:07
Timeout Miami, clock 09:07
47.5%
0.0
Q3 8:58
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 5 yds to the MIA 41
47.5%
0.0
Q3 8:12
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 40
47.8%
+0.3
Q3 7:30
Dylan Joyce punt for 52 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for no gain to the LOU 8
47.8%
0.0
LOU · Drive 16PUNT · 8 plays · 14 yds
Q3 7:30
PENALTY LOU Illegal Substitution 4 yards from LOU08 to LOU04. NO PLAY.
39.1%
-8.7
Q3 7:22
Isaac Brown run for 8 yds to the LOU 12
39.1%
0.0
Q3 6:44
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 8 yds to the LOU 20 for a 1ST down
39.1%
0.0
Q3 6:08
(06:10) Shotgun Brown,Isaac rush middle for 0 yards to the LOU20 (Moten,Ahmad) PENALTY LOU Holding (Moussa,Mahamane) 10 yards from LOU20 to LOU10. NO PLAY.
38.6%
-0.6
Q3 5:37
Miller Moss pass incomplete
38.6%
0.0
Q3 5:33
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Caullin Lacy
38.6%
0.0
Q3 5:21
Miller Moss pass complete to Keyjuan Brown for 12 yds to the LOU 22
38.7%
+0.1
Q3 4:43
Carter Schwartz punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 45
37.9%
-0.8
MIA · Drive 17FG · 8 plays · 32 yds
Q3 4:43
Timeout Miami, clock 04:43
46.5%
+8.7
Q3 4:33
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 44
46.5%
0.0
Q3 4:13
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 15 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST down Louisville Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Wesley Bailey) to the LOU 26 for a 1ST down
46.2%
-0.3
Q3 3:38
Malachi Toney run for 2 yds to the LOU 24
45.7%
-0.5
Q3 3:03
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the LOU 18
45.7%
0.0
Q3 2:21
PENALTY MIA False Start (Okunlola,Samson) 5 yards from LOU18 to LOU23. NO PLAY.
45.7%
0.0
Q3 1:56
Carson Beck pass incomplete to CJ Daniels
45.7%
0.0
Q3 1:51
Carter Davis 41 yd FG GOOD
54.0%
+8.3
LOU · Drive 18TD · 12 plays · 75 yds
Q3 1:51
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
51.4%
-2.6
Q3 1:45
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris Bell
45.3%
-6.1
Q3 1:41
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Nate Kurisky
45.3%
0.0
Q3 1:30
Isaac Brown run for 20 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST down
45.3%
0.0
Q3 0:56
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 42
43.9%
-1.5
Q3 0:00
Isaac Brown run for 15 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST down
43.4%
-0.5
Q4 15:00
Timeout Miami, clock 15:00
43.1%
-0.3
Q4 15:00
(14:59) PENALTY LOU Illegal Snap (Nygra,Pete) 5 yards from MIA43 to MIA48. NO PLAY.
43.0%
-0.1
Q4 14:52
Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the MIA 44
43.1%
+0.1
Q4 14:12
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the MIA 36
42.4%
-0.8
Q4 13:35
Timeout Miami, clock 13:35
41.8%
-0.6
Q4 13:27
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 36 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
17.3%
-24.5
MIA · Drive 19INT · 13 plays · 31 yds
Q4 13:27
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
18.3%
+0.9
Q4 13:16
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 6 yds to the MIA 31
23.4%
+5.2
Q4 13:01
Jordan Lyle run for 1 yd to the MIA 32
23.4%
0.0
Q4 12:19
Carson Beck run for 2 yds to the MIA 34
22.8%
-0.6
Q4 11:34
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST down
22.4%
-0.4
Q4 10:53
Carson Beck run for no gain to the MIA 36
22.4%
0.0
Q4 10:31
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 9 yds to the MIA 45
20.7%
-1.7
Q4 9:47
(09:51) Shotgun Brown,CharMar rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA48 (Perry,Kalib) PENALTY MIA Holding (Fletcher Jr.,Mark) 10 yards from MIA45 to MIA35. NO PLAY.
20.8%
0.0
Q4 9:16
(09:22) Shotgun Beck,Carson pass intercepted by Evans Jr.,JoJo at MIA47 PENALTY LOU Roughing The Passer (Lubin,Clev) 15 yards from MIA35 to MIA50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
20.2%
-0.6
Q4 8:54
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the LOU 48
20.5%
+0.3
Q4 8:37
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Mark Fletcher Jr.
21.4%
+0.9
Q4 8:27
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 4 yds to the LOU 44
21.4%
0.0
Q4 7:50
Carson Beck pass intercepted JoJo Evans Jr. return for 5 yds to the LOU 28
21.6%
+0.2
LOU · Drive 20FUMBLE · 2 plays · -3 yds
Q4 7:50
Timeout Miami, clock 07:50
20.8%
-0.8
Q4 7:42
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 12 Isaac Brown fumbled, recovered by MIA Zechariah Poyser
12.8%
-8.0
MIA · Drive 21TD · 1 play · 12 yds
Q4 7:37
M. Toney run for 12 yds for a TD (M. Toney pass to C. Daniels for Two-Point Conversion)
56.4%
+43.5
LOU · Drive 22PUNT · 10 plays · 24 yds
Q4 7:37
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
53.1%
-3.3
Q4 7:26
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 8 yds to the LOU 33
40.0%
-13.1
Q4 6:53
Keyjuan Brown run for 2 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST down
40.0%
0.0
Q4 6:12
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Nate Kurisky
39.7%
-0.3
Q4 6:12
Timeout Miami, clock 06:12
42.5%
+2.8
Q4 6:00
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 12 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST down
39.7%
-2.8
Q4 5:32
Keyjuan Brown run for 6 yds to the MIA 47
38.1%
-1.7
Q4 4:44
Keyjuan Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 49
36.7%
-1.4
Q4 4:13
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris Bell
36.9%
+0.2
Q4 4:05
David Chapeau punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 15
37.2%
+0.3
MIA · Drive 23INT · 15 plays · 54 yds
Q4 3:55
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 2 yds to the MIA 17
48.2%
+11.0
Q4 3:36
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Malachi Toney
48.2%
0.0
Q4 3:36
PENALTY MIA False Start (Lofton,Elija) 5 yards from MIA17 to MIA12. NO PLAY.
48.2%
0.0
Q4 3:20
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 17 yds to the MIA 29 for a 1ST down
45.0%
-3.2
Q4 3:06
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 3 yds to the MIA 32
45.0%
0.0
Q4 2:38
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 11 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST down
39.7%
-5.3
Q4 2:03
Carson Beck run for 1 yd to the MIA 44
36.9%
-2.8
Q4 2:00
Timeout Miami, clock 02:00
36.9%
0.0
Q4 1:50
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 6 yds to the 50 yard line
35.8%
-1.1
Q4 1:26
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 8 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST down
34.6%
-1.2
Q4 0:59
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 3 yds to the LOU 39
38.0%
+3.3
Q4 0:42
Carson Beck pass complete to Jordan Lyle for 6 yds to the LOU 33
35.7%
-2.3
Q4 0:36
Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the LOU 31 for a 1ST down
36.1%
+0.4
Q4 0:36
Timeout Miami, clock 00:36
36.1%
0.0
Q4 0:32
Carson Beck pass intercepted T.J. Capers return for no gain to the LOU 30
36.3%
+0.2
LOU · Drive 24END OF GAME · 5 plays · -3 yds
Q4 0:29
Timeout Miami, clock 00:29
20.0%
-16.3
Q4 0:29
(00:28) Kneel down by Louisville at LOU29 for loss of 1 yard.
17.4%
-2.5
Q4 0:27
(00:28) Kneel down by Louisville at LOU28 for loss of 1 yard.
19.6%
+2.2
Q4 0:27
Timeout Miami, clock 00:27
16.1%
-3.4
Q4 0:00
run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 27
18.5%
+2.3
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:37
M. Toney run for 12 yds for a TD (M. Toney pass to C. Daniels for Two-Point Conversion)
+43.5
TD · Q4 13:27
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 36 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
-24.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 10:58
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-19.2