2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Reser Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreWAKE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:48 · Deshawn Purdie pass incomplete to Kamrean Johnson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 13:32: Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Chris Barnes for 36 yds for a TD (T. Clark III Run For Two-point Conversion) — WAKE win probability +0.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:49: Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 52 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK) — WAKE win probability +4.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:56: Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Chris Barnes for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK) — WAKE win probability +11.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Connor Calvert 43 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +5.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:58: Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 29 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK) — ORST win probability +0.4 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 9 of 11WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 12:11ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 31, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snapGo for it46.7%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.8%average punt
- Q1 8:48WAKE 4th & 1 at ORST 19, up 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.4%71% to convertField goal54.0%−0.577% to makePunt52.5%−2.0average punt
- Q1 4:38ORST 4th & 12 at WAKE 29, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.6% before the snapGo for it44.1%−0.423% to convertField goalTheir call44.5%58% to makePunt43.0%−1.5average punt
- Q1 2:17ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 37, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snapGo for it37.9%−0.829% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.8%average punt
- Q2 14:09WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 49, up 15Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 63.9% before the snapGo for it64.4%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.3%−1.2average punt
- Q2 13:43ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 23, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snapGo for it34.9%−1.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.3%average punt
- Q2 12:52WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 26, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snapGo for it64.1%−1.036% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.0%average punt
- Q2 7:39ORST 4th & 9 at WAKE 34, down 22Close callWent for it · 26.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.2%−0.132% to convertField goal26.3%47% to makePunt24.9%−1.4average punt
- Q2 6:48WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 24, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snapGo for it78.9%−0.247% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.1%average punt
- Q2 5:43ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 34, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snapGo for it19.5%−4.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.2%average punt
- Q2 2:49WAKE 4th & 15 at ORST 37, up 22Close callPunted · 82.3% before the snapGo for it81.3%−0.917% to convertField goal82.2%40% to makePuntTheir call81.4%−0.8average punt
- Q2 0:44ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 21, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snapGo for it14.0%−4.427% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.4%average punt
- Q2 0:00WAKE 4th & 4 at ORST 26, up 22Close callKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snapGo for it86.7%48% to convertField goalTheir call86.2%−0.564% to makePunt81.0%−5.7average punt
- Q3 11:58ORST 4th & 17 at ORST 36, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it1.4%−3.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q3 9:03WAKE 4th & 2 at ORST 40, up 25Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.6%57% to convertField goal95.4%−1.234% to makePuntTheir call95.6%−1.0average punt
- Q3 6:41ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 27, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q3 1:12ORST 4th & 5 at WAKE 17, down 32Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%−<0.140% to convertField goal1.4%80% to makePunt0.9%−0.5average punt
- Q4 14:51WAKE 4th & 16 at WAKE 11, up 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.9%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.1%average punt
- Q4 13:17ORST 4th & 1 at WAKE 34, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%71% to convertField goal0.4%−0.147% to makePunt0.3%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 0 of 2WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 13:32WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick52.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call52.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:49WAKE Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.2%97% to makeGo for two60.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:56WAKE Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.5%97% to makeGo for two74.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:33WAKE Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:58ORST Touchdown, down 26 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.1%−0.197% to makeGo for two1.2%45% to convert
- Q4 11:42WAKE Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:10ORST Touchdown, down 26 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%−0.297% to makeGo for two0.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1TD5 plays · 60 yds · 1:1553% → 54%
Q1 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+15
46.9%
(14:20) Shotgun Purdie,Deshawn pass incomplete short left to Falayi,Eni thrown to WFU45 QB hurried by Schuster,Jacob PENALTY OSU Roughing The Passer (Schuster,Jacob) 15 yards from WFU44 to OSU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+36
46.3%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Chris Barnes for 36 yds for a TD (T. Clark III Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1646% → 46%
Q1 12:11
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+1
45.9%
AJ Winsor punt for 39 yds , Carlos Hernandez returns for 1 yd to the WAKE 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3DOWNS7 plays · 50 yds · 3:1654% → 55%
ORSTDrive 4MISSED FG12 plays · 52 yds · 4:0345% → 44%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
45.0%
Gabarri Johnson sacked by Langston Hardy for a loss of 5 yards to the ORST 14Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+15
44.9%
Wake Forest Penalty, Roughing The Passer (15 Yards) to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
44.8%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Trent Walker for 9 yds to the ORST 45Similar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+26
45.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 26 yds to the WAKE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
45.8%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Voltin,Tyler) 5 yards from WFU27 to WFU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+3
44.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Kourdey Glass for 3 yds to the WAKE 29Similar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+85
44.3%
Caleb Ojeda 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by BJ Williams (04:52) Ojeda,Caleb field goal attempt from 47 yards NO GOOD blocked by Williams,BJ (H: Winsor,AJ, LS: Haverland,Will), clock 04:38 recovered by WFU Stevenson,Zamari at WFU25 Stevenson,Zamari return 75 yards to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 04:38 PENALTY WFU Holding (Andersen,Nick) 10 yards from OSU42 to WFU48. , Zamari Stevenson return for 75 yds Wake Forest Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nick Andersen) to the WAKE 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5TD2 plays · 52 yds · 0:4357% → 61%
ORSTDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:2340% → 38%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
39.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 7 yds to the ORST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 39 yds · 3:0062% → 64%
ORSTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2137% → 36%
WAKEDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4465% → 65%
Q2 12:52
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
35.4%
Cal Joseph punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10FUMBLE2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0536% → 35%
WAKEDrive 11TD6 plays · 29 yds · 1:4566% → 79%
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-10
33.7%
(12:38) Shotgun Claiborne,Demond rush left for 9 yards gain to the OSU20 fumbled by Claiborne,Demond at OSU24 forced by Tucker,Jalil, out of bounds at OSU20 PENALTY WFU Holding (Hines,Jack) 10 yards from OSU29 to OSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 20
OPP 39
+2
33.5%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 2 yds to the ORST 37Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 18
OPP 37
+15
33.3%
(11:35) Shotgun Purdie,Deshawn pass incomplete deep left to Mays Jr.,Micah thrown to OSU06 PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Singleton,Kobe) 15 yards from OSU37 to OSU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
21.1%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Chris Barnes for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12INT9 plays · 41 yds · 3:0726% → 27%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
26.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 18 yds to the ORST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
26.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 8 yds to the WAKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
26.5%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted Nuer Gatkuoth return for no gain to the WAKE 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4680% → 81%
ORSTDrive 14PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 0:5725% → 23%
WAKEDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 2:4782% → 84%
ORSTDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 1:5820% → 20%
Q2 1:53
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+19
18.8%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 19 yds to the ORST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-3
18.8%
Gabarri Johnson sacked by Mateen Ibirogba for a loss of 3 yards to the ORST 21Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+33
20.1%
AJ Winsor punt for 44 yds , Carlos Hernandez returns for 33 yds to the ORST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17FG6 plays · 6 yds · 0:4188% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 11 yds · 2:576% → 4%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
5.7%
(13:46) Shotgun Hankerson,Anthony rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OSU47 (Patterson,Davaughn; Hall,Aiden) PENALTY OSU Holding (Elu,Nathan) 10 yards from OSU43 to OSU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 20
OWN 33
-5
4.8%
(13:34) PENALTY OSU False Start (Timoteo,Josiah) 5 yards from OSU33 to OSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 25
OWN 28
+4
4.5%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 4 yds to the ORST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 36 yds · 2:4795% → 97%
Q3 11:08
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+21
4.5%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 21 yds to the ORST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
3.8%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 9 yds to the ORST 39Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-5
3.4%
PENALTY WFU False Start (Siani,Melvin) 5 yards from OSU39 to OSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+4
3.4%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Ty Clark III for 4 yds to the ORST 40Similar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
3.4%
Cal Joseph punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:173% → 2%
Q3 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+14
2.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 14 yds to the ORST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+5
2.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 5 yds to the ORST 27Similar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+15
2.3%
AJ Winsor punt for 43 yds , Carlos Hernandez returns for 15 yds to the WAKE 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21TD1 play · 55 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
2.0%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Chris Barnes for 55 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22DOWNS11 plays · 58 yds · 5:112% → 2%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
2.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 14 yds to the ORST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
1.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
1.7%
Wake Forest Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Dylan Hazen) to the WAKE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-10
1.6%
Maalik Murphy sacked by Nuer Gatkuoth for a loss of 10 yards to the WAKE 29Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 17
OPP 29
+12
1.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 12 yds to the WAKE 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1399% → 99%
ORSTDrive 24TD7 plays · 43 yds · 2:471% → 1%
WAKEDrive 25TD2 plays · 66 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 26TD21 plays · 75 yds · 7:260% → 0%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.4%
(11:42) Shotgun Johnson,Gabarri pass incomplete deep left to Walker,Trent thrown to OSU47 broken up by Patterson,Davaughn PENALTY WFU Pass Interference (Patterson,Davaughn) 15 yards from OSU25 to OSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
0.3%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Berger,Ryan) 5 yards from WFU45 to WFU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 15
50
+15
0.3%
(09:51) Shotgun Johnson,Gabarri pass incomplete short middle to Freauff,Eddie thrown to WFU48 QB hurried by Lohavichan,Zach PENALTY WFU Roughing The Passer (Lohavichan,Zach) 15 yards from WFU50 to WFU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.2%
(05:39) Hatcher Jr.,Cornell rush left for 0 yards to the WFU01 (Hardy,Langston; Patterson,Davaughn) PENALTY WFU Offside (West,Travon). NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.2%
PENALTY WFU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bryant,Quincy), 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
0.2%
Gabarri Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the WAKE 6 Gabarri Johnson fumbled, recovered by ORST Gabarri JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
0.2%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 2 yds to the WAKE 4Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.4%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 27END OF GAME10 plays · 35 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
0.1%
(01:25) Shotgun Pizzella,Steele rush right for 35 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:18 PENALTY WFU Holding (Kennedy,Ja'Marion) 10 yards from OSU35 to OSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:56
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Chris Barnes for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
-11.7
FG · Q2 0:00
Connor Calvert 43 yd FG GOOD
-5.2
TD · Q1 3:49
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 52 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
-4