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STAN

Stanford 10 at SMU 34

SMU
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:44 · Micah Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Pregame prior+25.5Home team on offense+6.2Score differential+2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:35: Chris Johnson Jr. run for 87 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK) — SMU win probability +7.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:02: Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK) — STAN win probability +4.9 pts (now 15%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:22: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for 42 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK) — SMU win probability +6.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:34: Emmet Kenney 34 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +3.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:05: Ben Gulbranson pass intercepted Justin Medlock return for 96 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK) — SMU win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8STAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:38SMU 4th & 21 at SMU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:30SMU 4th & 10 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:55STAN 4th & 25 at STAN 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:14SMU 4th & 5 at STAN 48, tied
    Close callWent for it · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:39SMU 4th & 3 at STAN 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    85.8%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:36STAN 4th & 12 at STAN 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:30SMU 4th & 2 at STAN 15, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.7%−0.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:10STAN 4th & 1 at SMU 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−1.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:44STAN 4th & 1 at SMU 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−4.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:29STAN 4th & 18 at STAN 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:40STAN 4th & 25 at STAN 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−1.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:05SMU 4th & 17 at SMU 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:34STAN 4th & 9 at SMU 16, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−4.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:52SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:35STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:32SMU 4th & 7 at STAN 31, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:41STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 35, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4STAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:39SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:35SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:02STAN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:22SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:05SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:1690% → 90%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.4%
T.J. Harden run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-13
90.3%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Scotty Edwards for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 14Similar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+36
90.1%
Wade McSparron punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0190% → 90%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
50
0
90.1%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to RJ MarylandSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
50
0
90.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 10
50
0
89.9%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Yamir KnightSimilar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 10
50
0
89.8%
Wade McSparron punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 4:2710% → 11%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
89.8%
Micah Ford run for no gain to the STAN 8Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+13
89.6%
Micah Ford run for 13 yds to the STAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
89.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 12 yds to the STAN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-8
89.0%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Isaiah Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the STAN 25Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 18
OWN 25
+10
88.9%
(09:29) Shotgun Gulbranson,Ben pass incomplete short right to Tabb,Cole thrown to STA20 PENALTY SMU Holding (Robertson,Cameron) 10 yards from STA25 to STA35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
88.8%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Jeffrey M'ba for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 28Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 17
OWN 28
0
88.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Bryce FarrellSimilar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 17
OWN 28
-8
88.7%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Cameron Robertson for a loss of 8 yards to the STAN 20Similar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 25
OWN 20
0
88.6%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 45 yds , Marcellus Barnes Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0488% → 89%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
88.4%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
88.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 11 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
88.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 9 yds to the STAN 44Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-8
88.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 2 yds to the SMU 42 SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marcellus Barnes Jr.) to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+8
87.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 8 yds to the STAN 48Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 5
OPP 48
+12
87.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 12 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
87.9%
T.J. Harden run for 1 yd to the STAN 35Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+9
87.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 9 yds to the STAN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
87.7%
T.J. Harden run for 1 yd to the STAN 25Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+6
87.6%
Kevin Jennings run for 6 yds to the STAN 19Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
87.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+19
88.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Derrick McFall for 19 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:4912% → 12%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
88.4%
Cole Tabb run for 6 yds to the STAN 35 Stanford Penalty, Offensive Holding (Myles Libman) to the STAN 25Similar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 14
OWN 25
-10
88.4%
(02:05) Tabb,Cole rush middle for 15 yards gain to the STA40 (Miyazono,Brandon; Nwokobia,Isaiah) PENALTY STA Holding (Anderson,Fisher) 10 yards from STA25 to STA15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 24
OWN 15
+12
88.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Cole Tabb for 12 yds to the STAN 27Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
88.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to CJ WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:46
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
88.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Bryce FarrellSimilar
Q1 0:36
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
88.5%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6FG
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:0088% → 88%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+37
88.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 37 yds to the STAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
88.8%
Kevin Jennings run for 1 yd to the STAN 42Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+3
88.7%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the STAN 39Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+16
88.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 16 yds to the STAN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
88.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
88.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Derrick McFall for 7 yds to the STAN 16Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+1
88.3%
T.J. Harden run for 1 yd to the STAN 15Similar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
88.3%
Sam Keltner 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7DOWNS
22 plays · 73 yds · 9:3512% → 12%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
88.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 13 yds to the STAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
87.7%
Micah Ford run for 5 yds to the STAN 43Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
87.7%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the STAN 46Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
88.0%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the STAN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
88.0%
Cole Tabb run for 3 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+4
87.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+6
87.8%
Micah Ford run for 6 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
87.8%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+3
87.7%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
87.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+5
88.2%
(06:23) Kenney,Emmet field goal attempt from 52 yards nullified by penaltyGOOD (H: Flintoft,Aidan, LS: Warford,Peyton), clock 06:17 PENALTY SMU Offside (Harmon,Deuce) 5 yards from SMU34 to SMU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+4
87.6%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
86.6%
Micah Ford pass incomplete to Sam RoushSimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
86.9%
Micah Ford run for 9 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+10
86.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 10 yds Sam Roush fumbled, recovered by STAN Sam Roush for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
86.3%
Micah Ford run for no gain to the SMU 6Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
86.4%
Micah Ford run for 5 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Benji BlackburnSimilar
Q2 2:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
87.6%
Micah Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 98 yds · 2:0588% → 95%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
87.5%
T.J. Harden run for 4 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 6
OWN 6
0
86.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+15
86.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 15 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
87.5%
SMU Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the SMU 11Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+2
87.4%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 18
OWN 13
+87
94.6%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 87 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:288% → 15%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
92.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 12 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
91.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 18 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+31
90.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 31 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
85.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
88.6%
K. Jennings takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 4:3113% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
87.5%
Shotgun Tabb,Cole rush middle for 4 yards gain to the STA29 (Nettles,William), out of bounds PENALTY STA Holding (Blackburn,Benji) 10 yards from STA25 to STA15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+10
87.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 10 yds to the STAN 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jordan Onovughe for 5 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
87.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 6 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
87.0%
Ben Gulbranson sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the STAN 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+12
87.6%
Ben Gulbranson run for 12 yds to the STAN 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-14
86.8%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Brandon Miyazono for a loss of 14 yards to the STAN 28Similar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
88.9%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 18 , Yamir Knight returns for no gain to the SMU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 2:0788% → 96%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
88.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 13 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
88.5%
Jordan Hudson run for 6 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+6
88.8%
T.J. Harden run for 6 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
89.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 15 yds to the STAN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
95.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for 42 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:356% → 5%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
93.9%
Micah Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 24Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
94.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Caden HighSimilar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-9
94.7%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Terry Webb for a loss of 9 yards to the STAN 15Similar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 20
OWN 15
-5
94.8%
PENALTY STA False Start (Neely III,Sam) 5 yards from STA15 to STA10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 25
OWN 10
+4
94.8%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 62 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 4 yds to the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:2996% → 95%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
95.5%
T.J. Harden run for 6 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
95.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-13
95.6%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Omar Staples for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 17
OWN 25
0
95.0%
Wade McSparron punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Liam Thorpe at the STAN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:165% → 8%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
95.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Benji Blackburn for 5 yds to the STAN 39Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
95.0%
Cole Tabb run for 6 yds to the STAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
95.1%
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the STAN 46Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+21
95.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 21 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
94.5%
Cole Tabb run for 5 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
94.5%
Ben Gulbranson run for no gain to the SMU 28 Ben Gulbranson fumbled, recovered by STAN CJ WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+11
94.9%
Cole Tabb run for 11 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
94.5%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the SMU 16Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
94.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Caden HighSimilar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
95.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Brendan DoyleSimilar
Q3 0:34
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
92.3%
Emmet Kenney 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:0895% → 96%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 8 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
95.5%
T.J. Harden run for 4 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
95.4%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
95.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 3 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
96.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to RJ MarylandSimilar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
95.8%
Wade McSparron punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the STAN 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17INT TD
18 plays · 90 yds · 6:395% → 1%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+17
95.1%
Cole Tabb run for 17 yds to the STAN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
95.3%
Cole Tabb run for 9 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+36
95.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 36 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
94.9%
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-5
94.8%
PENALTY STA Illegal Substitution 5 yards from SMU29 to SMU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-5
95.0%
(09:51) PENALTY STA False Start (Anderson,Fisher) 5 yards from SMU34 to SMU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 16
OPP 39
+6
95.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 6 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+4
95.7%
(08:44) Shotgun Gulbranson,Ben pass incomplete short left to High,Caden thrown to SMU28 PENALTY SMU Pass Interference (Chambers,Kyron) 4 yards from SMU33 to SMU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
95.1%
(08:45) PENALTY STA False Start (High,Caden) 5 yards from SMU29 to SMU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+10
95.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 10 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+15
95.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Myles Libman for 15 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
95.1%
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
95.5%
(06:54) Shotgun Gulbranson,Ben pass complete short left to High,Caden caught at SMU00, for 7 yards to the SMU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:55 PENALTY STA Personal Foul (Brown,Ziron) 15 yards from SMU07 to SMU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+13
95.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 13 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
95.9%
SMU Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kyron Chambers) to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-96
99.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass intercepted Justin Medlock return for 96 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)Similar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.5%
PENALTY STA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Onovughe,Jordan) 15 yards from SMU35 to SMU50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:261% → 1%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:57100% → 100%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
99.6%
T.J. Harden run for 1 yd to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+25
99.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Link Rhodes for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST down Stanford Penalty, Personal Foul (Matt Rose) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
50
+1
99.7%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 1 yd to the STAN 49Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+8
99.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 8 yds to the STAN 41Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+7
99.7%
T.J. Harden run for 7 yds to the STAN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the STAN 34Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
99.8%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
99.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for no gain to the STAN 31Similar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+48
99.8%
Sam Keltner 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20END OF GAME
9 plays · 25 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
99.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 14 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Myles LibmanSimilar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sedrick IrvinSimilar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+11
99.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 11 yds to the STAN 46 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sam RoushSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
99.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
99.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for no gain to the STAN 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:35
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 87 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
+7.1
TD · Q3 8:22
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for 42 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
+6.5
TD · Q2 0:02
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
-4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com