STAN
Stanford 10 at SMU 34
SMU2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey play
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SMU · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · -11 yds
Q1 15:00
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
86.2%
0.0
Q1 14:54
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete
87.7%
+1.5
Q1 14:47
T.J. Harden run for 2 yds to the SMU 27
87.7%
0.0
Q1 14:17
Kevin Jennings sacked by Scotty Edwards for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 14
87.6%
-0.1
Q1 13:38
Wade McSparron punt for 36 yds
87.4%
-0.1
SMU · Drive 2PUNT · 4 plays · 0 yds
Q1 13:31
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to RJ Maryland
88.0%
+0.6
Q1 13:23
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for no gain to the 50 yard line
88.0%
0.0
Q1 12:39
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Yamir Knight
87.9%
-0.1
Q1 12:30
Wade McSparron punt for 42 yds
87.8%
-0.1
STAN · Drive 3PUNT · 9 plays · 12 yds
Q1 12:22
Micah Ford run for no gain to the STAN 8
85.6%
-2.2
Q1 11:50
Micah Ford run for 13 yds to the STAN 21 for a 1ST down
85.5%
-0.2
Q1 11:02
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 12 yds to the STAN 33 for a 1ST down
85.4%
-0.1
Q1 10:03
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Isaiah Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the STAN 25
85.4%
0.0
Q1 9:27
(09:29) Shotgun Gulbranson,Ben pass incomplete short right to Tabb,Cole thrown to STA20 PENALTY SMU Holding (Robertson,Cameron) 10 yards from STA25 to STA35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
85.4%
+0.1
Q1 9:20
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Jeffrey M'ba for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 28
85.4%
0.0
Q1 8:40
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Bryce Farrell
85.1%
-0.3
Q1 8:35
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Cameron Robertson for a loss of 8 yards to the STAN 20
85.1%
0.0
Q1 7:55
Aidan Flintoft punt for 45 yds , Marcellus Barnes Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 25
85.1%
0.0
SMU · Drive 4TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q1 7:43
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 7 yds to the SMU 32
87.1%
+2.0
Q1 7:29
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST down
87.1%
0.0
Q1 7:04
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 11 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST down
87.2%
+0.1
Q1 6:31
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 9 yds to the STAN 44
85.9%
-1.3
Q1 6:10
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 2 yds to the SMU 42 SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marcellus Barnes Jr.) to the SMU 44
86.2%
+0.3
Q1 5:42
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 8 yds to the STAN 48
85.5%
-0.7
Q1 5:14
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 12 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST down
85.8%
+0.3
Q1 4:58
T.J. Harden run for 1 yd to the STAN 35
86.3%
+0.5
Q1 4:26
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 9 yds to the STAN 26 for a 1ST down
86.3%
0.0
Q1 3:58
T.J. Harden run for 1 yd to the STAN 25
86.2%
-0.1
Q1 3:27
Kevin Jennings run for 6 yds to the STAN 19
86.0%
-0.2
Q1 2:46
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Romello Brinson
85.9%
-0.1
Q1 2:39
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Derrick McFall for 19 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
92.2%
+6.4
STAN · Drive 5PUNT · 7 plays · -2 yds
Q1 2:31
Sam Keltner kickoff for 54 yds , Caden High return for 18 yds to the STAN 29
92.1%
-0.1
Q1 2:25
Cole Tabb run for 6 yds to the STAN 35 Stanford Penalty, Offensive Holding (Myles Libman) to the STAN 25
91.2%
-0.9
Q1 2:00
(02:05) Tabb,Cole rush middle for 15 yards gain to the STA40 (Miyazono,Brandon; Nwokobia,Isaiah) PENALTY STA Holding (Anderson,Fisher) 10 yards from STA25 to STA15. NO PLAY.
91.2%
0.0
Q1 1:28
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Cole Tabb for 12 yds to the STAN 27
91.1%
-0.1
Q1 0:50
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to CJ Williams
91.1%
0.0
Q1 0:46
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Bryce Farrell
91.1%
0.0
Q1 0:36
Aidan Flintoft punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 20
91.0%
-0.1
SMU · Drive 6FG · 8 plays · 65 yds
Q1 0:30
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 37 yds to the STAN 43 for a 1ST down
91.8%
+0.8
Q1 0:00
Kevin Jennings run for 1 yd to the STAN 42
92.1%
+0.3
Q2 14:53
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the STAN 39
92.1%
0.0
Q2 14:14
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 16 yds to the STAN 23 for a 1ST down
91.5%
-0.5
Q2 13:50
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Romello Brinson
91.6%
+0.1
Q2 13:42
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Derrick McFall for 7 yds to the STAN 16
91.6%
0.0
Q2 13:08
T.J. Harden run for 1 yd to the STAN 15
91.6%
-0.1
Q2 12:30
Sam Keltner 32 yd FG GOOD
95.9%
0.0
STAN · Drive 7DOWNS · 22 plays · 73 yds
Q2 12:30
Sam Keltner kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
95.9%
+4.3
Q2 12:19
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 13 yds to the STAN 38 for a 1ST down
92.4%
-3.5
Q2 11:44
Micah Ford run for 5 yds to the STAN 43
92.2%
-0.2
Q2 11:07
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the STAN 46
92.2%
0.0
Q2 10:24
Timeout Stanford, clock 10:24
90.0%
-2.2
Q2 10:17
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the STAN 49 for a 1ST down
90.0%
0.0
Q2 9:42
Cole Tabb run for 3 yds to the SMU 48
90.8%
+0.9
Q2 8:58
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 4 yds to the SMU 44
90.8%
-0.1
Q2 8:29
Micah Ford run for 6 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST down
91.8%
+1.1
Q2 7:45
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the SMU 37
91.8%
0.0
Q2 7:02
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the SMU 34
91.8%
0.0
Q2 6:21
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete
91.5%
-0.4
Q2 6:17
(06:23) Kenney,Emmet field goal attempt from 52 yards nullified by penaltyGOOD (H: Flintoft,Aidan, LS: Warford,Peyton), clock 06:17 PENALTY SMU Offside (Harmon,Deuce) 5 yards from SMU34 to SMU29. NO PLAY.
91.8%
+0.3
Q2 6:17
Timeout SMU, clock 06:17
92.0%
+0.2
Q2 6:10
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST down
92.0%
0.0
Q2 5:47
Micah Ford pass incomplete to Sam Roush
91.7%
-0.3
Q2 5:41
Micah Ford run for 9 yds to the SMU 16
91.7%
0.0
Q2 4:28
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 10 yds Sam Roush fumbled, recovered by STAN Sam Roush for a 1ST down
91.7%
0.0
Q2 4:16
Micah Ford run for no gain to the SMU 6
91.3%
-0.4
Q2 3:27
Micah Ford run for 5 yds to the SMU 1
91.8%
+0.5
Q2 2:48
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Benji Blackburn
91.4%
-0.4
Q2 2:44
Micah Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 2
91.7%
+0.3
SMU · Drive 8TD · 7 plays · 98 yds
Q2 2:40
T.J. Harden run for 4 yds to the SMU 6
96.1%
+4.4
Q2 2:00
Timeout SMU, clock 02:00
96.1%
0.0
Q2 1:57
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jordan Hudson
96.1%
0.0
Q2 1:40
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 15 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST down
96.1%
0.0
Q2 1:35
SMU Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the SMU 11
96.1%
0.0
Q2 1:23
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 13
96.1%
0.0
Q2 0:35
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 87 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
98.9%
+2.8
STAN · Drive 9TD · 6 plays · 75 yds
Q2 0:35
Sam Keltner kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.9%
0.0
Q2 0:30
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 12 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST down
97.6%
-1.3
Q2 0:13
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 18 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST down
97.4%
-0.2
Q2 0:06
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 31 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST down
97.2%
-0.1
Q2 0:06
Timeout SMU, clock 00:06
97.3%
+0.1
Q2 0:02
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
91.9%
-5.4
SMU · Drive 10END OF HALF · 2 plays · -1 yds
Q2 0:01
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 63 yds
92.4%
+0.6
Q2 0:00
K. Jennings takes a knee
96.3%
+3.9
STAN · Drive 11PUNT · 9 plays · 3 yds
Q3 15:00
Sam Keltner kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
96.5%
+0.1
Q3 15:00
Shotgun Tabb,Cole rush middle for 4 yards gain to the STA29 (Nettles,William), out of bounds PENALTY STA Holding (Blackburn,Benji) 10 yards from STA25 to STA15. NO PLAY.
93.1%
-3.4
Q3 15:00
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 10 yds to the STAN 25
93.1%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jordan Onovughe for 5 yds to the STAN 30
93.1%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 6 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST down
93.1%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Ben Gulbranson sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the STAN 30
93.1%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Ben Gulbranson run for 12 yds to the STAN 42
93.1%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Brandon Miyazono for a loss of 14 yards to the STAN 28
93.1%
0.0
Q3 10:29
Aidan Flintoft punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 18 , Yamir Knight returns for no gain to the SMU 18
93.9%
+0.8
SMU · Drive 12TD · 5 plays · 82 yds
Q3 10:29
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 13 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST down
96.8%
+2.9
Q3 10:29
Jordan Hudson run for 6 yds to the SMU 37
96.8%
0.0
Q3 10:29
T.J. Harden run for 6 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST down
96.8%
0.0
Q3 10:29
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 15 yds to the STAN 42 for a 1ST down
96.8%
0.0
Q3 8:22
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for 42 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
99.1%
+2.2
STAN · Drive 13PUNT · 6 plays · -15 yds
Q3 8:22
Sam Keltner kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.1%
0.0
Q3 8:15
Micah Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 24
98.1%
-0.9
Q3 7:32
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Caden High
98.5%
+0.3
Q3 7:26
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Terry Webb for a loss of 9 yards to the STAN 15
98.5%
0.0
Q3 6:58
PENALTY STA False Start (Neely III,Sam) 5 yards from STA15 to STA10. NO PLAY.
98.5%
0.0
Q3 6:40
Aidan Flintoft punt for 62 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 4 yds to the SMU 32
98.4%
-0.1
SMU · Drive 14PUNT · 4 plays · -7 yds
Q3 6:34
T.J. Harden run for 6 yds to the SMU 38
99.1%
+0.7
Q3 6:04
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jordan Hudson
99.1%
0.0
Q3 5:49
Kevin Jennings sacked by Omar Staples for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 25
99.1%
0.0
Q3 5:05
Wade McSparron punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Liam Thorpe at the STAN 34
99.2%
+0.1
STAN · Drive 15FG · 11 plays · 50 yds
Q3 4:50
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Benji Blackburn for 5 yds to the STAN 39
98.5%
-0.7
Q3 4:24
Cole Tabb run for 6 yds to the STAN 45 for a 1ST down
98.6%
+0.1
Q3 3:45
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the STAN 46
98.6%
0.0
Q3 3:05
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 21 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST down
98.6%
0.0
Q3 2:41
Cole Tabb run for 5 yds to the SMU 28
98.6%
0.0
Q3 1:55
Ben Gulbranson run for no gain to the SMU 28 Ben Gulbranson fumbled, recovered by STAN CJ Williams
98.6%
0.0
Q3 1:45
Cole Tabb run for 11 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST down
98.6%
0.0
Q3 1:15
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the SMU 16
98.6%
0.0
Q3 0:43
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Caden High
98.6%
0.0
Q3 0:39
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Brendan Doyle
98.6%
0.0
Q3 0:34
Emmet Kenney 34 yd FG GOOD
96.4%
-2.2
SMU · Drive 16PUNT · 8 plays · 18 yds
Q3 0:34
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
96.5%
+0.2
Q3 0:00
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 8 yds to the SMU 33
98.9%
+2.3
Q4 14:53
T.J. Harden run for 4 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST down
98.9%
0.0
Q4 14:17
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the SMU 40
98.8%
0.0
Q4 13:37
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 3 yds to the SMU 43
98.8%
-0.1
Q4 13:08
Timeout Stanford, clock 13:08
98.8%
+0.1
Q4 13:04
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to RJ Maryland
98.8%
0.0
Q4 12:52
Wade McSparron punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the STAN 5
98.8%
0.0
STAN · Drive 17INT TD · 18 plays · 90 yds
Q4 12:44
Cole Tabb run for 17 yds to the STAN 22 for a 1ST down
97.1%
-1.7
Q4 11:59
Cole Tabb run for 9 yds to the STAN 31
97.1%
+0.1
Q4 11:09
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 36 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST down
97.1%
0.0
Q4 10:36
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the SMU 29
97.1%
-0.1
Q4 10:14
PENALTY STA Illegal Substitution 5 yards from SMU29 to SMU34. NO PLAY.
97.1%
0.0
Q4 9:43
(09:51) PENALTY STA False Start (Anderson,Fisher) 5 yards from SMU34 to SMU39. NO PLAY.
96.9%
-0.2
Q4 9:18
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 6 yds to the SMU 33
96.9%
0.0
Q4 8:45
(08:44) Shotgun Gulbranson,Ben pass incomplete short left to High,Caden thrown to SMU28 PENALTY SMU Pass Interference (Chambers,Kyron) 4 yards from SMU33 to SMU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
97.1%
+0.1
Q4 8:41
(08:45) PENALTY STA False Start (High,Caden) 5 yards from SMU29 to SMU34. NO PLAY.
97.1%
0.0
Q4 8:35
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 10 yds to the SMU 24
97.0%
0.0
Q4 7:39
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Myles Libman for 15 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST down
96.8%
-0.3
Q4 7:24
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the SMU 7
96.6%
-0.2
Q4 6:55
(06:54) Shotgun Gulbranson,Ben pass complete short left to High,Caden caught at SMU00, for 7 yards to the SMU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:55 PENALTY STA Personal Foul (Brown,Ziron) 15 yards from SMU07 to SMU22. NO PLAY.
96.8%
+0.2
Q4 6:55
Timeout SMU, clock 06:55
96.1%
-0.7
Q4 6:49
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 13 yds to the SMU 9
96.1%
0.0
Q4 6:23
SMU Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kyron Chambers) to the SMU 5 for a 1ST down
95.8%
-0.3
Q4 6:05
Ben Gulbranson pass intercepted Justin Medlock return for 96 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
98.9%
+3.1
Q4 6:05
PENALTY STA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Onovughe,Jordan) 15 yards from SMU35 to SMU50. NO PLAY.
98.7%
-0.2
STAN · Drive 18PUNT · 5 plays · 0 yds
Q4 6:05
Sam Keltner kickoff for 50 yds for a touchback
99.5%
+0.8
Q4 6:01
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete
99.0%
-0.6
Q4 5:54
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete
98.9%
0.0
Q4 5:47
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete
98.9%
0.0
Q4 5:35
Aidan Flintoft punt for 51 yds
98.9%
0.0
SMU · Drive 19FG · 12 plays · 45 yds
Q4 5:29
T.J. Harden run for 1 yd to the SMU 25
99.5%
+0.6
Q4 4:44
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Link Rhodes for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST down Stanford Penalty, Personal Foul (Matt Rose) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
99.5%
0.0
Q4 4:12
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 1 yd to the STAN 49
99.5%
0.0
Q4 3:28
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 8 yds to the STAN 41
99.5%
0.0
Q4 2:44
T.J. Harden run for 7 yds to the STAN 34 for a 1ST down
99.5%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout SMU, clock 02:00
99.5%
0.0
Q4 1:53
Chris Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the STAN 34
99.5%
0.0
Q4 1:48
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the STAN 31
99.5%
0.0
Q4 1:48
Timeout Stanford, clock 01:48
99.5%
0.0
Q4 1:38
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for no gain to the STAN 31
99.5%
0.0
Q4 1:38
Timeout SMU, clock 01:38
99.4%
-0.1
Q4 1:32
Sam Keltner 48 yd FG GOOD
99.6%
+0.2
STAN · Drive 20END OF GAME · 9 plays · 25 yds
Q4 1:27
Sam Keltner kickoff for 65 yds , Caden High return for 21 yds to the STAN 21
99.6%
0.0
Q4 1:20
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 14 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST down
98.9%
-0.7
Q4 1:00
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete
98.9%
0.0
Q4 0:56
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Myles Libman
98.9%
0.0
Q4 0:48
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sedrick Irvin
98.9%
0.0
Q4 0:41
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 11 yds to the STAN 46 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST down
98.9%
0.0
Q4 0:39
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sam Roush
98.9%
0.0
Q4 0:33
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete
98.9%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for no gain to the STAN 46
98.9%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:39
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Derrick McFall for 19 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q2 0:02
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
-5.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 2:40
T.J. Harden run for 4 yds to the SMU 6
+4.4