2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreVT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:05 · Nick Veltsistas punt for 43 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:52: Kyron Drones run for 32 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +4.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:04: Aidan Birr 30 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +3.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:34: Kyron Drones pass complete to Ja'Ricous Hairston for 33 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +6.6 pts (now 18%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:23: Malachi Hosley run for 15 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +6.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:58: Kyron Drones pass complete to Ja'Ricous Hairston for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — VT win probability +3.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 7:10VT 4th & 26 at VT 25, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snapGo for it16.6%−0.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.0%average punt
- Q1 0:17VT 4th & 14 at midfield, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it16.0%−0.619% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.6%average punt
- Q2 9:01GT 4th & 2 at VT 7, up 15Close callKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snapGo for it87.0%53% to convertField goalTheir call86.6%−0.491% to makePunt84.5%−2.5average punt
- Q2 6:05VT 4th & 9 at GT 44, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snapGo for it10.9%−0.132% to convertField goal10.4%−0.627% to makePuntTheir call11.0%average punt
- Q2 3:29GT 4th & 4 at GT 7, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snapGo for it87.7%−0.645% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.3%average punt
- Q2 0:23GT 4th & 1 at VT 32, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.9%71% to convertField goal85.9%−<0.151% to makePunt84.8%−1.1average punt
- Q3 11:34VT 4th & 9 at GT 33, down 14Close callWent for it · 11.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.1%−0.132% to convertField goal11.3%49% to makePunt10.7%−0.6average punt
- Q3 3:29GT 4th & 9 at VT 34, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snapGo for it92.0%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call92.0%47% to makePunt91.5%−0.5average punt
- Q3 1:41VT 4th & 7 at VT 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snapGo for it8.4%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q4 7:50VT 4th & 8 at GT 45, down 21Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%−<0.134% to convertField goal1.0%−<0.125% to makePunt1.0%average punt
- Q4 4:58VT 4th & 2 at GT 3, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%−0.449% to convertField goal1.1%93% to makePunt0.3%−0.9average punt
- Q4 4:24GT 4th & 28 at GT 34, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.1%−1.07% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%average punt
- Q4 2:20VT 4th & 1 at GT 10, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.4%71% to convertField goal3.3%−0.188% to makePunt1.9%−1.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 10:53GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick82.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call82.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:34GT Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.9%97% to makeGo for two84.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:52VT Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.8%97% to makeGo for two13.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:34VT Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.5%97% to makeGo for two17.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:23GT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.2%97% to makeGo for two90.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:54GT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:58VT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick3.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call3.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1TD12 plays · 80 yds · 3:3086% → 86%
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
85.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 6 yds to the GT 26Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
85.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 8 yds to the GT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
85.3%
(12:29) PENALTY VT Personal Foul (Chambers,Noah) 15 yards from GT47 to VT38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.8%
Haynes King 2 Yd Run (Haynes King Pass to Malik Rutherford for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 3:1015% → 14%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
85.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 17 yds to the VT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 14
OWN 37
-1
85.5%
Kyron Drones sacked by Kyle Efford for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 36Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 15
OWN 36
-5
85.6%
PENALTY VT False Start (Altuner,Kyle) 5 yards from VT36 to VT31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 26
OWN 25
+42
85.7%
Nick Veltsistas punt for 55 yds , Eric Rivers returns for 42 yds to the VT 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3TD6 plays · 38 yds · 1:5286% → 88%
VTDrive 4PUNT12 plays · 25 yds · 3:5213% → 12%
Q1 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.8%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Terion Stewart for 1 yd to the VT 26Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
86.9%
(03:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Drones,Kyron pass incomplete deep right to Greene,Ayden thrown to GT45 PENALTY GT Pass Interference (Tobe,Zachary) 15 yards from VT26 to VT41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-10
87.2%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Stewart,Terion rush left for 2 yards gain to the GT38 (Efford,Kyle) PENALTY VT Holding (Garrett,Johnny) 10 yards from GT40 to GT50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5FG12 plays · 90 yds · 5:5988% → 91%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+36
88.5%
Malachi Hosley run for 36 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
50
+4
89.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 4 yds to the GT 46Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+13
89.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Luke Harpring for 13 yds to the VT 41Similar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
89.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Rivers for 22 yds to the VT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 2:2010% → 10%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
90.4%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Drones,Kyron pass incomplete deep left to Greene,Donavon thrown to GT36 PENALTY GT Pass Interference (Shelley,Rodney) 15 yards from VT27 to VT42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
89.4%
Kyron Drones sacked by A.J. Hoffler for a loss of 7 yards to the VT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1092% → 91%
Q2 3:29
4TH & 4
OWN 7
+14
91.4%
Marshall Nichols punt for 53 yds , Isaiah Spencer returns for 14 yds to the GT 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8TD2 plays · 46 yds · 0:2810% → 14%
GTDrive 9FG15 plays · 62 yds · 3:0187% → 91%
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
87.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 14 yds to the GT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
88.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Luke Harpring for 20 yds to the VT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
88.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Luke Harpring for 6 yds to the VT 35Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+31
87.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Josh Beetham for 31 yds to the VT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
87.4%
(00:13) Shotgun King,Haynes pass complete short right to Canion,Isiah caught at VT00, for 3 yards to the VT00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:07 PENALTY GT Holding (Rutledge,Keylan) 10 yards from VT03 to VT13. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5811% → 18%
GTDrive 12TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3983% → 92%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
82.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Isiah Canion for 8 yds to the GT 33Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
83.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Rivers for 8 yds to the GT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
85.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Brett Seither for 29 yds to the VT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13INT6 plays · 32 yds · 1:3710% → 11%
GTDrive 14MISSED FG8 plays · 35 yds · 2:0992% → 93%
Q3 4:45
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+27
92.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down Virginia Tech Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Kody Huisman) to the VT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
93.3%
(04:16) Shotgun Haynes,Jamal rush middle for 2 yards gain to the VT33 (Abbey,Jason; Ballance,George) PENALTY GT Holding (Joseph,Peyton) 10 yards from VT35 to VT45. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:489% → 8%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
91.0%
PENALTY VT False Start (Lynch,Aidan) 5 yards from VT34 to VT29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+8
92.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Terion Stewart for 8 yds to the VT 37Similar
Q3 1:41
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
92.0%
Nick Veltsistas punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16TD10 plays · 83 yds · 4:4095% → 99%
VTDrive 17TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:241% → 4%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
98.8%
(10:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Drones,Kyron pass complete deep right to Heath,Takye caught at GT25, for 22 yards to the GT25, out of bounds at GT25 PENALTY VT Holding (Rimac,Tomas) 10 yards from GT47 to VT43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 16
OWN 47
-10
99.0%
(09:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Drones,Kyron rush middle for 10 yards gain to the GT43 (Butler,Tah'j) PENALTY VT Holding (Ghannam,Layth) 10 yards from VT47 to VT37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 8
OPP 45
+23
99.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Takye Heath for 23 yds to the GT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+3
95.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ja'Ricous Hairston for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18PUNT7 plays · -18 yds · 0:2598% → 98%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-14
97.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Dean Patterson for 1 yd to the GT 47 Georgia Tech Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the GT 38Similar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 28
OWN 34
+14
97.6%
Marshall Nichols punt for 55 yds , Isaiah Spencer returns for 14 yds to the VT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19DOWNS6 plays · 62 yds · 1:572% → 3%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
97.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Takye Heath for 20 yds to the VT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+36
97.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 36 yds to the GT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
96.9%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Kyron Drones) to the GT 19Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+6
97.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 6 yds to the GT 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20END OF GAME7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:34
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ja'Ricous Hairston for 33 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
-6.6
TD · Q3 8:23
Malachi Hosley run for 15 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q2 2:52
Kyron Drones run for 32 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
-4.2