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PITT

Pittsburgh 34 at Florida State 31

FSU
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:51 · Mac Chiumento punt blocked by Josh Guerrier blocked by Josh Guerrier
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior+13.6Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:20: Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 33 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK) — FSU win probability +13.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:15: Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 16 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK) — PITT win probability +12.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 11:38: Trey Butkowski 28 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +11.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:15: Trey Butkowski 34 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +15.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:45: Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 58 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK) — FSU win probability +24.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:12PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:07PITT 4th & 1 at FSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.0%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:27PITT 4th & 1 at FSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−0.3
    87% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:50FSU 4th & 14 at PITT 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:55PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−1.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:51FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:20FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−2.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:41FSU 4th & 6 at PITT 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−9.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:19PITT 4th & 20 at FSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−2.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:38PITT 4th & 6 at FSU 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−1.7
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−13.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:13FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−2.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:15PITT 4th & 4 at FSU 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.2%−0.9
    81% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−21.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:18FSU 4th & 13 at FSU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−4.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:55PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:17FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:21PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:20FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:06FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:15PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:28PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:45FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.8%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:5825% → 30%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.0%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
74.9%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Justin Holmes for no gain to the PITT 28Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
74.8%
Mason Heintschel run for 6 yds to the PITT 34Similar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+8
74.7%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 8 yds to the PITT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
74.4%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 9 yds to the FSU 49Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+15
74.2%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 15 yds to the FSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
74.1%
Juelz Goff run for 4 yds to the FSU 30Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+7
73.7%
Mason Heintschel run for 7 yds to the FSU 37 Mason Heintschel fumbled, recovered by PITT Justin HolmesSimilar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 13
OPP 37
+12
74.0%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 12 yds to the FSU 25Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+5
73.8%
Mason Heintschel run for 5 yds to the FSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
73.2%
Mason Heintschel run for 5 yds to the FSU 15Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-1
72.8%
Mason Heintschel sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 16Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+5
72.8%
Mason Heintschel run for 5 yds to the FSU 11Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+1
73.0%
Deuce Spann run for 1 yd to the FSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
69.8%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 10 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:3871% → 74%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
71.0%
PENALTY FSU Illegal Snap (Petitbon,Luke) 5 yards from FSU35 to FSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+4
70.8%
Tommy Castellanos run for 4 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+7
70.7%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 7 yds to the FSU 41Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+15
70.6%
(05:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Castellanos,Tommy pass incomplete deep right to Robinson,Duce thrown to PITT20 PENALTY PITT Pass Interference (Battle,Rashad) 15 yards from FSU41 to PITT44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
71.1%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the PITT 43Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+3
70.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the PITT 40Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+33
70.5%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 33 yds to the PITT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
70.8%
Tommy Castellanos run for 6 yds to the PITT 1Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
70.7%
Gavin Sawchuk run for no gain to the PITT 1Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.6%
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3928% → 36%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.3%
Cataurus Hicks run for no gain to the PITT 25Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
72.2%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Ja'Kyrian Turner for 17 yds to the PITT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
70.9%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 41Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
71.1%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Ja'Kyrian TurnerSimilar
Q1 1:29
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+15
71.4%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 15 yds to the FSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
70.2%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 4 yds to the FSU 40Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
69.7%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Ja'Kyrian Turner for 4 yds to the FSU 36Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+12
69.8%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Jake Overman for 12 yds to the FSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
64.1%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 24 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:1966% → 63%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.0%
Ousmane Kromah run for 8 yds to the FSU 33Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
66.8%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for no gain to the FSU 33Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
65.8%
(13:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Castellanos,Tommy pass incomplete deep right to Robinson,Duce thrown to PITT28 PENALTY PITT Offside declined PITT Pass Interference (Harrison,Shadarian) 15 yards from FSU33 to FSU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
66.8%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 8
50
+6
66.7%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 6 yds to the PITT 44Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+2
66.6%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the PITT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
66.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
66.0%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the PITT 38Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 6
OPP 38
-8
65.7%
Micahi Danzy run for a loss of 8 yards to the PITT 46Similar
Q2 9:50
4TH & 14
OPP 46
0
62.5%
Mac Chiumento punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4737% → 39%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
63.3%
Mason Heintschel run for 4 yds to the PITT 6Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 6
OWN 6
0
63.1%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Desmond ReidSimilar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+16
63.4%
Mason Heintschel run for 16 yds to the PITT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
62.0%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 25Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+6
61.3%
Desmond Reid run for 6 yds to the PITT 31Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-11
59.0%
Mason Heintschel sacked by Mandrell Desir for a loss of 11 yards to the PITT 20Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
60.8%
Caleb Junko punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:2761% → 73%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
60.7%
Ousmane Kromah run for no gain to the FSU 38Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
60.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 13 yds to the PITT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
61.7%
Tommy Castellanos sacked by Jimmy Scott for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 47 Tommy Castellanos fumbled, recovered by FSU Jacob Rizy , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 14
OWN 47
+4
59.4%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the PITT 49Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+16
59.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 16 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
72.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 33 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1033% → 34%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.6%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 7 yds to the PITT 32Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
65.2%
Desmond Reid run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 30Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
66.4%
Mason Heintschel pass intercepted Earl Little Jr. return for no gain to the FSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0069% → 66%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
69.2%
Florida State Penalty, Personal Foul (-9 Yards) to the FSU 10Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 18
OWN 10
+1
68.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd to the FSU 11Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 17
OWN 11
+5
67.8%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 5 yds to the FSU 16Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 12
OWN 16
+10
65.8%
Mac Chiumento punt blocked by Josh Guerrier blocked by Josh GuerrierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9INT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:1641% → 40%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
59.3%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 1 yd to the FSU 25Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+7
59.6%
Mason Heintschel run for 7 yds to the FSU 18Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 2
OPP 18
-12
60.3%
Mason Heintschel pass intercepted Edwin Joseph return for 12 yds to the FSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 1:0967% → 80%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+23
67.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 23 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
67.7%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 4 yds to the FSU 39Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+6
69.2%
Tommy Castellanos run for 6 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
69.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 11 yds to the PITT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
70.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Elijah Moore for 19 yds to the PITT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
71.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
80.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Landen Thomas for 25 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0021% → 24%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
79.0%
(00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Reid,Desmond rush right for 1 yard gain to the PITT26, out of bounds at PITT26 PENALTY PITT Holding (Overman,Jake) 10 yards from PITT25 to PITT15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
78.3%
Desmond Reid run for 14 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+15
79.2%
Florida State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ja'Bril Rawls) to the PITT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
76.2%
PENALTY PITT UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Cooper,Lyndon) 15 yards from PITT35 to PITT20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2579% → 76%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
79.2%
Ousmane Kromah run for 1 yd to the FSU 44Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
79.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Micahi DanzySimilar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-5
77.8%
Tommy Castellanos sacked by Nick James for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 39Similar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
76.1%
Mac Chiumento punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:5923% → 39%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
77.0%
Desmond Reid run for 7 yds to the PITT 22Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 3
OWN 22
-3
76.4%
Desmond Reid run for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 19Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+50
78.1%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 50 yds to the FSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
73.2%
Florida State Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (13 Yards) to the FSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
72.7%
Mason Heintschel sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 16Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 14
OPP 16
0
74.1%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 14
OPP 16
+16
61.5%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 16 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:2766% → 72%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
66.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 9 yds to the FSU 44Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
68.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 5 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
68.7%
Ousmane Kromah run for 22 yds to the PITT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
70.1%
Ousmane Kromah run for 7 yds to the PITT 22Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+3
70.0%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 3 yds to the PITT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
70.0%
Ousmane Kromah run for 2 yds to the PITT 17Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 8
OPP 17
-10
69.9%
Florida State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PITT 25Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 16
OPP 25
+11
68.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 11 yds to the PITT 14Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-1
68.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 15Similar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+34
71.7%
Jake Weinberg 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:1631% → 29%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.5%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 1 yd to the PITT 26Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
69.1%
Mason Heintschel run for 20 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
66.4%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 21 yds to the FSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
64.4%
Mason Heintschel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-18
64.5%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Mason Heintschel) to the PITT 49Similar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 28
OWN 49
+8
69.2%
Mason Heintschel run for 8 yds to the FSU 43Similar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 20
OPP 43
0
70.7%
Caleb Junko punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Lawayne McCoy at the FSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16FUMBLE
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:4569% → 74%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+12
69.4%
Caziah Holmes run for 12 yds to the FSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
70.0%
Caziah Holmes run for 6 yds to the FSU 24Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+4
70.2%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the FSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
70.1%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the FSU 32Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
70.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 5 yds to the FSU 37Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
71.0%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the FSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
71.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the FSU 42Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+15
75.7%
Ousmane Kromah run for 15 yds to the PITT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
76.7%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Kromah,Ousmane rush left for 3 yards gain to the PITT40 (Battle,Rashad), out of bounds PENALTY FSU Holding (Leonard IV,Richie) 10 yards from PITT43 to FSU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+2
74.4%
Caziah Holmes run for 2 yds to the FSU 49 Caziah Holmes fumbled, recovered by PITT Jahsear WhittingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17FG
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:3534% → 44%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+35
65.9%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 35 yds to the FSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
65.5%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 5 yds to the FSU 9Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-1
65.3%
Mason Heintschel sacked by Justin Cryer for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 10Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
67.1%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
56.1%
Trey Butkowski 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1863% → 60%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
63.0%
Tommy Castellanos run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 24Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
62.5%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Micahi DanzySimilar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+4
60.4%
Tommy Castellanos run for 4 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
59.7%
Mac Chiumento punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19FG
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:5143% → 64%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
56.8%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 6 yds to the PITT 36Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+42
54.1%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 42 yds to the FSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
49.3%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Ja'Kyrian Turner for 2 yds to the FSU 20Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
49.0%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Cataurus HicksSimilar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+4
51.5%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 4 yds to the FSU 16Similar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+34
35.6%
Trey Butkowski 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:4645% → 39%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
44.7%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
44.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Landen ThomasSimilar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
41.0%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Micahi DanzySimilar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 8
OWN 29
-5
39.4%
PENALTY FSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from FSU29 to FSU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 13
OWN 24
0
39.0%
Mac Chiumento punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:4266% → 95%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
34.0%
Desmond Reid run for no gain to the PITT 27Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+16
32.2%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 16 yds to the PITT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
27.2%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 46Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+30
25.1%
Mason Heintschel run for 30 yds to the FSU 24 Mason Heintschel fumbled, recovered by PITT Ja'Kyrian Turner for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
20.7%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 6 yds to the FSU 18Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+11
18.1%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Ja'Kyrian Turner for 11 yds to the FSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
16.8%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 4 yds to the FSU 3Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
5.1%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 3 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:385% → 28%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
5.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 15 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
4.1%
Tommy Castellanos run for 2 yds to the FSU 42Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
4.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Markeston DouglasSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+58
28.0%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 58 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3990% → 95%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
10.0%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the FSU 41Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+4
10.0%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the FSU 37Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+5
7.4%
PENALTY FSU Offside (Jackson Jr.,Darrell) 5 yards from FSU37 to FSU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
4.9%
M. Heintschel takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:45
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 58 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
+24
FG · Q4 7:15
Trey Butkowski 34 yd FG GOOD
-15.9
TD · Q2 4:20
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 33 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
+13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com