PITT
Pittsburgh 34 at Florida State 31
FSU2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Doak Campbell Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey play
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PITT · Drive 1TD · 17 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Jake Weinberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
73.8%
0.0
Q1 14:53
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 28
72.5%
-1.4
Q1 14:25
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Justin Holmes for no gain to the PITT 28
71.5%
-1.0
Q1 13:50
Mason Heintschel run for 6 yds to the PITT 34
71.5%
0.0
Q1 13:12
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 8 yds to the PITT 42 for a 1ST down
71.5%
0.0
Q1 12:48
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 9 yds to the FSU 49
70.3%
-1.2
Q1 12:08
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 15 yds to the FSU 34 for a 1ST down
69.4%
-0.9
Q1 11:59
Juelz Goff run for 4 yds to the FSU 30
69.2%
-0.1
Q1 11:10
Mason Heintschel run for 7 yds to the FSU 37 Mason Heintschel fumbled, recovered by PITT Justin Holmes
69.2%
0.0
Q1 10:50
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 12 yds to the FSU 25
69.2%
0.0
Q1 10:07
Mason Heintschel run for 5 yds to the FSU 20 for a 1ST down
69.9%
+0.7
Q1 9:22
Mason Heintschel run for 5 yds to the FSU 15
69.3%
-0.6
Q1 8:48
Mason Heintschel sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 16
69.0%
-0.3
Q1 7:41
Timeout Pittsburgh, clock 07:41
68.8%
-0.2
Q1 7:40
Mason Heintschel run for 5 yds to the FSU 11
68.1%
-0.7
Q1 7:27
Deuce Spann run for 1 yd to the FSU 10 for a 1ST down
68.8%
+0.7
Q1 6:55
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 10 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
52.6%
-16.2
FSU · Drive 2TD · 11 plays · 65 yds
Q1 6:55
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 55 yds
54.4%
+1.8
Q1 6:55
PENALTY FSU Illegal Snap (Petitbon,Luke) 5 yards from FSU35 to FSU30. NO PLAY.
56.3%
+1.9
Q1 6:48
Tommy Castellanos run for 4 yds to the FSU 34
56.3%
0.0
Q1 6:25
Gavin Sawchuk run for 7 yds to the FSU 41
55.3%
-1.0
Q1 5:48
(05:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Castellanos,Tommy pass incomplete deep right to Robinson,Duce thrown to PITT20 PENALTY PITT Pass Interference (Battle,Rashad) 15 yards from FSU41 to PITT44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
55.4%
+0.1
Q1 5:41
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the PITT 43
57.3%
+1.9
Q1 5:15
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the PITT 40
57.6%
+0.4
Q1 4:33
Gavin Sawchuk run for 33 yds to the PITT 7 for a 1ST down
57.6%
0.0
Q1 3:56
Tommy Castellanos run for 6 yds to the PITT 1
57.8%
+0.2
Q1 3:39
Gavin Sawchuk run for no gain to the PITT 1
57.4%
-0.4
Q1 3:17
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
72.5%
+15.1
PITT · Drive 3TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q1 3:17
Jake Weinberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
71.1%
-1.3
Q1 3:00
Cataurus Hicks run for no gain to the PITT 25
69.1%
-2.1
Q1 2:41
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Ja'Kyrian Turner for 17 yds to the PITT 42 for a 1ST down
69.1%
0.0
Q1 2:09
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 41
67.6%
-1.5
Q1 1:43
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Ja'Kyrian Turner
67.0%
-0.6
Q1 1:29
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 15 yds to the FSU 44 for a 1ST down
67.0%
0.0
Q1 1:07
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 4 yds to the FSU 40
66.0%
-1.0
Q1 0:00
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Ja'Kyrian Turner for 4 yds to the FSU 36
65.4%
-0.6
Q2 14:48
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Jake Overman for 12 yds to the FSU 24 for a 1ST down
65.4%
0.0
Q2 14:21
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 24 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
49.0%
-16.4
FSU · Drive 4PUNT · 11 plays · 29 yds
Q2 14:21
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
50.9%
+1.8
Q2 14:09
Ousmane Kromah run for 8 yds to the FSU 33
53.6%
+2.8
Q2 13:53
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for no gain to the FSU 33
53.6%
0.0
Q2 13:15
(13:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Castellanos,Tommy pass incomplete deep right to Robinson,Duce thrown to PITT28 PENALTY PITT Offside declined PITT Pass Interference (Harrison,Shadarian) 15 yards from FSU33 to FSU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
53.6%
0.0
Q2 13:11
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
55.3%
+1.7
Q2 12:33
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 6 yds to the PITT 44
55.3%
0.0
Q2 12:09
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the PITT 42 for a 1ST down
55.6%
+0.4
Q2 11:20
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce Robinson
56.3%
+0.7
Q2 11:11
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the PITT 38
56.3%
0.0
Q2 10:34
Micahi Danzy run for a loss of 8 yards to the PITT 46
56.4%
+0.1
Q2 9:50
Mac Chiumento punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 2
55.7%
-0.7
PITT · Drive 5PUNT · 7 plays · 18 yds
Q2 9:42
Mason Heintschel run for 4 yds to the PITT 6
49.7%
-6.1
Q2 9:10
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Desmond Reid
49.7%
0.0
Q2 8:59
Mason Heintschel run for 16 yds to the PITT 22 for a 1ST down
49.7%
0.0
Q2 8:42
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 25
49.7%
0.0
Q2 8:16
Desmond Reid run for 6 yds to the PITT 31
49.7%
0.0
Q2 7:38
Mason Heintschel sacked by Mandrell Desir for a loss of 11 yards to the PITT 20
47.3%
-2.4
Q2 6:55
Caleb Junko punt for 42 yds
47.3%
0.0
FSU · Drive 6TD · 6 plays · 62 yds
Q2 6:47
Ousmane Kromah run for no gain to the FSU 38
51.9%
+4.6
Q2 6:16
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 13 yds to the PITT 49 for a 1ST down
51.0%
-0.9
Q2 5:44
Tommy Castellanos sacked by Jimmy Scott for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 47 Tommy Castellanos fumbled, recovered by FSU Jacob Rizy , return for 0 yards
52.9%
+1.9
Q2 5:12
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the PITT 49
52.0%
-0.9
Q2 4:33
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 16 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST down
52.6%
+0.7
Q2 4:20
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 33 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
72.7%
+20.0
PITT · Drive 7INT · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q2 4:20
Jake Weinberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
70.8%
-1.8
Q2 4:09
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 7 yds to the PITT 32
65.7%
-5.2
Q2 3:42
Desmond Reid run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 30
65.7%
0.0
Q2 2:59
Mason Heintschel pass intercepted Earl Little Jr. return for no gain to the FSU 18
65.7%
0.0
FSU · Drive 8PUNT · 5 plays · -2 yds
Q2 2:51
Florida State Penalty, Personal Foul (-9 Yards) to the FSU 10
70.5%
+4.8
Q2 2:39
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd to the FSU 11
70.5%
0.0
Q2 2:03
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 5 yds to the FSU 16
70.4%
-0.1
Q2 2:00
Timeout Florida State, clock 02:00
69.6%
-0.7
Q2 1:51
Mac Chiumento punt blocked by Josh Guerrier blocked by Josh Guerrier
69.6%
0.0
PITT · Drive 9INT · 5 plays · 8 yds
Q2 1:43
Timeout Florida State, clock 01:43
61.2%
-8.4
Q2 1:42
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 1 yd to the FSU 25
61.2%
0.0
Q2 1:34
Timeout Florida State, clock 01:34
61.2%
0.0
Q2 1:33
Mason Heintschel run for 7 yds to the FSU 18
61.2%
0.0
Q2 1:26
Mason Heintschel pass intercepted Edwin Joseph return for 12 yds to the FSU 12
61.2%
0.0
FSU · Drive 10TD · 9 plays · 88 yds
Q2 1:15
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 23 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST down
69.8%
+8.5
Q2 1:04
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 4 yds to the FSU 39
69.8%
0.0
Q2 0:35
Tommy Castellanos run for 6 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST down
70.2%
+0.5
Q2 0:28
Gavin Sawchuk run for 11 yds to the PITT 44 for a 1ST down
69.4%
-0.8
Q2 0:18
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Elijah Moore for 19 yds to the PITT 25 for a 1ST down
70.2%
+0.8
Q2 0:17
Timeout Pittsburgh, clock 00:17
70.5%
+0.3
Q2 0:12
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Elijah Moore
69.9%
-0.6
Q2 0:06
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Landen Thomas for 25 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
82.1%
+12.1
Q2 0:06
Timeout Florida State, clock 00:06
62.0%
-20.1
PITT · Drive 11END OF HALF · 5 plays · 26 yds
Q2 0:06
Jake Weinberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
81.3%
+19.3
Q2 0:00
(00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Reid,Desmond rush right for 1 yard gain to the PITT26, out of bounds at PITT26 PENALTY PITT Holding (Overman,Jake) 10 yards from PITT25 to PITT15. NO PLAY.
79.6%
-1.7
Q2 0:00
Desmond Reid run for 14 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST down
79.6%
0.0
Q2 0:00
Florida State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ja'Bril Rawls) to the PITT 37 for a 1ST down
79.6%
0.0
Q3 15:00
PENALTY PITT UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Cooper,Lyndon) 15 yards from PITT35 to PITT20. NO PLAY.
79.2%
-0.5
FSU · Drive 12PUNT · 5 plays · -4 yds
Q3 14:53
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 58 yds , Jaylin Lucas return for 21 yds to the FSU 43
79.2%
0.0
Q3 14:45
Ousmane Kromah run for 1 yd to the FSU 44
83.1%
+4.0
Q3 14:11
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Micahi Danzy
83.1%
0.0
Q3 13:59
Tommy Castellanos sacked by Nick James for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 39
83.0%
-0.1
Q3 13:20
Mac Chiumento punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 15
83.0%
0.0
PITT · Drive 13TD · 7 plays · 85 yds
Q3 13:14
Desmond Reid run for 7 yds to the PITT 22
78.7%
-4.2
Q3 12:41
Desmond Reid run for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 19
78.7%
0.0
Q3 11:57
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 50 yds to the FSU 31 for a 1ST down
78.7%
0.0
Q3 11:25
Florida State Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (13 Yards) to the FSU 12 for a 1ST down
76.7%
-2.0
Q3 11:02
Mason Heintschel sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 16
76.5%
-0.2
Q3 10:22
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Kenny Johnson
76.5%
0.0
Q3 10:15
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 16 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
60.0%
-16.5
FSU · Drive 14FG · 12 plays · 50 yds
Q3 10:15
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 63 yds Pittsburgh Penalty, Defensive Offside (Braylan Lovelace) declined
62.6%
+2.5
Q3 10:15
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 63 yds Pittsburgh Penalty, Defensive Offside (Braylan Lovelace) declined
62.6%
0.0
Q3 10:08
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 9 yds to the FSU 44
68.1%
+5.6
Q3 9:48
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 5 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST down
69.0%
+0.8
Q3 9:13
Ousmane Kromah run for 22 yds to the PITT 29 for a 1ST down
69.0%
0.0
Q3 8:36
Ousmane Kromah run for 7 yds to the PITT 22
70.1%
+1.1
Q3 8:11
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 3 yds to the PITT 19 for a 1ST down
70.0%
-0.1
Q3 7:50
Ousmane Kromah run for 2 yds to the PITT 17
70.0%
0.0
Q3 7:15
Florida State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PITT 25
70.0%
0.0
Q3 6:57
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 11 yds to the PITT 14
70.0%
0.0
Q3 6:21
Gavin Sawchuk run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 15
69.8%
-0.2
Q3 5:41
Jake Weinberg 34 yd FG GOOD
76.6%
+6.8
PITT · Drive 15PUNT · 8 plays · 32 yds
Q3 5:41
Jake Weinberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
76.1%
-0.5
Q3 5:35
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 1 yd to the PITT 26
72.4%
-3.7
Q3 4:57
Mason Heintschel run for 20 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST down
71.8%
-0.6
Q3 4:24
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 21 yds to the FSU 33 for a 1ST down
69.5%
-2.3
Q3 4:08
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete
68.8%
-0.8
Q3 3:59
Pittsburgh Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Mason Heintschel) to the PITT 49
68.8%
0.0
Q3 3:51
Mason Heintschel run for 8 yds to the FSU 43
69.5%
+0.8
Q3 3:19
Caleb Junko punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Lawayne McCoy at the FSU 6
69.6%
+0.1
FSU · Drive 16FUMBLE · 10 plays · 43 yds
Q3 3:10
Caziah Holmes run for 12 yds to the FSU 18 for a 1ST down
75.3%
+5.6
Q3 2:40
Caziah Holmes run for 6 yds to the FSU 24
75.3%
0.0
Q3 2:01
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the FSU 28 for a 1ST down
75.3%
0.0
Q3 1:25
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the FSU 32
75.3%
0.0
Q3 0:45
Gavin Sawchuk run for 5 yds to the FSU 37
75.3%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the FSU 39 for a 1ST down
75.6%
+0.4
Q4 14:53
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the FSU 42
75.7%
+0.1
Q4 14:14
Ousmane Kromah run for 15 yds to the PITT 43 for a 1ST down
76.5%
+0.7
Q4 13:51
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Kromah,Ousmane rush left for 3 yards gain to the PITT40 (Battle,Rashad), out of bounds PENALTY FSU Holding (Leonard IV,Richie) 10 yards from PITT43 to FSU47. NO PLAY.
77.1%
+0.6
Q4 13:25
Caziah Holmes run for 2 yds to the FSU 49 Caziah Holmes fumbled, recovered by PITT Jahsear Whittington
76.8%
-0.3
PITT · Drive 17FG · 6 plays · 39 yds
Q4 13:13
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 35 yds to the FSU 14 for a 1ST down
70.7%
-6.2
Q4 13:03
Timeout Pittsburgh, clock 13:03
70.0%
-0.7
Q4 12:56
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 5 yds to the FSU 9
70.0%
0.0
Q4 12:20
Mason Heintschel sacked by Justin Cryer for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 10
70.0%
0.0
Q4 11:41
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Kenny Johnson
70.0%
0.0
Q4 11:38
Trey Butkowski 28 yd FG GOOD
58.5%
-11.4
FSU · Drive 18PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q4 11:38
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
60.3%
+1.8
Q4 11:31
Tommy Castellanos run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 24
65.5%
+5.1
Q4 11:03
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Micahi Danzy
65.5%
0.0
Q4 10:54
Tommy Castellanos run for 4 yds to the FSU 28
65.5%
0.0
Q4 10:13
Mac Chiumento punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 30
65.2%
-0.3
PITT · Drive 19FG · 6 plays · 54 yds
Q4 10:06
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 6 yds to the PITT 36
60.3%
-4.8
Q4 9:23
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 42 yds to the FSU 22 for a 1ST down
58.7%
-1.6
Q4 8:34
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Ja'Kyrian Turner for 2 yds to the FSU 20
56.3%
-2.4
Q4 8:00
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Cataurus Hicks
55.8%
-0.5
Q4 7:52
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 4 yds to the FSU 16
55.8%
0.0
Q4 7:15
Trey Butkowski 34 yd FG GOOD
39.6%
-16.2
FSU · Drive 20PUNT · 6 plays · -3 yds
Q4 7:10
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 65 yds , Jaylin Lucas return for 27 yds to the FSU 27
41.1%
+1.5
Q4 7:04
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the FSU 29
49.4%
+8.3
Q4 6:31
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Landen Thomas
48.5%
-0.9
Q4 6:25
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Micahi Danzy
48.2%
-0.3
Q4 6:25
PENALTY FSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from FSU29 to FSU24. NO PLAY.
48.2%
0.0
Q4 6:18
Mac Chiumento punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 27
48.2%
0.0
PITT · Drive 21TD · 10 plays · 73 yds
Q4 6:10
Desmond Reid run for no gain to the PITT 27
40.9%
-7.3
Q4 5:25
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 16 yds to the PITT 43 for a 1ST down
38.1%
-2.8
Q4 4:52
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 46
36.1%
-2.0
Q4 3:46
Mason Heintschel run for 30 yds to the FSU 24 Mason Heintschel fumbled, recovered by PITT Ja'Kyrian Turner for a 1ST down
36.0%
-0.1
Q4 3:26
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 6 yds to the FSU 18
35.6%
-0.4
Q4 2:36
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Ja'Kyrian Turner for 11 yds to the FSU 7 for a 1ST down
33.9%
-1.7
Q4 2:36
Timeout Florida State, clock 02:36
31.1%
-2.7
Q4 2:31
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 4 yds to the FSU 3
31.1%
0.0
Q4 2:31
Timeout Florida State, clock 02:31
31.1%
0.0
Q4 2:28
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 3 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
14.3%
-16.8
FSU · Drive 22TD · 6 plays · 75 yds
Q4 2:28
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
14.4%
+0.1
Q4 2:23
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 15 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST down
16.3%
+1.9
Q4 2:00
Timeout Florida State, clock 02:00
16.1%
-0.3
Q4 1:59
Tommy Castellanos run for 2 yds to the FSU 42
15.7%
-0.4
Q4 1:54
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Markeston Douglas
15.7%
0.0
Q4 1:45
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 58 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
39.0%
+23.3
PITT · Drive 23END OF GAME · 6 plays · 9 yds
Q4 1:44
Jake Weinberg kickoff for 9 yds
38.3%
-0.7
Q4 1:40
Timeout Florida State, clock 01:40
25.6%
-12.7
Q4 1:39
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the FSU 41
25.9%
+0.3
Q4 1:33
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the FSU 37
25.6%
-0.3
Q4 0:56
PENALTY FSU Offside (Jackson Jr.,Darrell) 5 yards from FSU37 to FSU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
22.9%
-2.7
Q4 0:00
M. Heintschel takes a knee
18.9%
-4.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:45
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 58 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
+23.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:06
Timeout Florida State, clock 00:06
-20.1
TD · Q2 4:20
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 33 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
+20