2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:24 · Jordan McDonald run for 7 yds to the BC 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialDefense timeoutsOffense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:05: Adam Randall 8 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick) — BC win probability +1.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- FG · Q1 1:37: Luca Lombardo 45 Yd Field Goal — BC win probability +0.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 9:10: Turbo Richard 2 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick) — CLEM win probability +1.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 5:31: Cade Klubnik 6 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick) — BC win probability +0.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:23: Bryant Wesco Jr. 38 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Nolan Hauser Kick) — CLEM win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 9CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 11:08CLEM 4th & 1 at BC 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call78.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt78.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:24CLEM 4th & 4 at BC 28, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snapGo for it77.3%48% to convertField goalTheir call77.3%−0.160% to makePunt76.7%−0.6average punt
- Q1 7:15BC 4th & 8 at BC 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snapGo for it22.4%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.6%average punt
- Q1 1:37BC 4th & 8 at CLEM 27, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.1% before the snapGo for it20.9%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call21.1%62% to makePunt19.7%−1.4average punt
- Q2 0:10BC 4th & 6 at BC 43, down 24Close callWent for it · 9.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.1%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.4%average punt
- Q3 13:18BC 4th & 20 at BC 15, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it1.1%−2.09% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q3 10:57CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 49, up 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt96.8%−0.7average punt
- Q3 9:05CLEM 4th & 3 at BC 43, up 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.0%52% to convertField goal97.5%−0.528% to makePunt97.7%−0.3average punt
- Q3 5:59BC 4th & 18 at BC 13, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.912% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q3 0:36CLEM 4th & 5 at BC 5, up 27Close callWent for it · 98.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.3%−<0.133% to convertField goal98.3%92% to makePunt97.0%−1.3average punt
- Q4 14:56BC 4th & 2 at BC 28, down 27Close callPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 13:34BC 4th & 2 at CLEM 9, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.2%54% to convertField goal1.9%−0.289% to makePunt0.3%−1.8average punt
- Q4 9:38CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 41, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q4 7:44BC 4th & 3 at BC 44, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:32BC 4th & 10 at CLEM 35, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−0.230% to convertField goal0.4%45% to makePunt0.2%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 4:05CLEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.8%97% to makeGo for two77.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:31CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.6%97% to makeGo for two81.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:23CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.8%97% to makeGo for two88.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1FG14 plays · 42 yds · 5:4684% → 85%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
16.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 4 yds to the CLEM 34Similar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
15.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 5 yds to the CLEM 48Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 3
50
+2
15.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Christian Bentancur for 2 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+12
15.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 12 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+10
14.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 10 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 1
OPP 25
-3
14.8%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Quintayvious Hutchins for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0414% → 14%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD6 plays · 67 yds · 3:0486% → 85%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+25
14.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 25 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+22
13.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 22 yds to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
13.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 4 yds to the BC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4FG9 plays · 48 yds · 2:2812% → 12%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
12.2%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
11.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Dawson Pough, broken up by Avieon Terrell for a 1ST down Clemson Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Avieon Terrell) to the CLEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3188% → 89%
Q1 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+21
11.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 21 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
11.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Olsen Patt-Henry for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 38Similar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
11.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 4 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+8
11.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 8 yds to the BC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5312% → 11%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
11.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 17 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+17
12.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 17 yds to the CLEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
13.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jordan McDonald for 16 yds to the CLEM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+6
12.7%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis Bond for a 1ST down Clemson Penalty, roughing passer (Wade Woodaz) to the CLEM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7TD11 plays · 68 yds · 3:3292% → 92%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
8.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 11 yds to the CLEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
7.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 11 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+25
7.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 25 yds to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8Uncategorized10 plays · 53 yds · 3:316% → 4%
Q2 5:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
5.7%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Dylan Lonergan for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 26Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
5.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 10 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
5.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Kaelan Chudzinski for 20 yds to the CLEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
6.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Kaelan Chudzinski for 4 yds to the CLEM 40Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+15
6.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 15 yds to the CLEM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-8
4.2%
Dylan Lonergan sacked by Sammy Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the CLEM 30 Dylan Lonergan fumbled, recovered by CLEM T.J. Parker , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9TD3 plays · 70 yds · 0:3196% → 98%
BCDrive 10Uncategorized6 plays · 14 yds · 1:134% → 4%
BCDrive 11PUNT6 plays · -10 yds · 1:422% → 1%
Q3 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
1.4%
Turbo Richard run for 3 yds to the BC 28 Boston College Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the BC 18Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+5
1.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Kaelan Chudzinski for 5 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-8
1.2%
Dylan Lonergan sacked by Jahiem Lawson for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 15Similar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+3
1.2%
Shamus Florio punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CLEM 40 , Bryant Wesco Jr. returns for 3 yds to the CLEM 18 Clemson Penalty, Offensive holding (T.J. Parker) to the CLEM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12INT10 plays · 38 yds · 4:3598% → 97%
Q3 9:05
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+15
3.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 15 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:181% → 1%
CLEMDrive 14INT10 plays · 52 yds · 5:1998% → 97%
BCDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:331% → 1%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.5%
Shaker Reisig pass incomplete to Jeremiah Franklin, broken up by Jahiem LawsonSimilar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
0.5%
Shaker Reisig pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 8 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+55
0.5%
Shamus Florio punt for 43 yds , David Eziomume returns for no gain to the CLEM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16INT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:071% → 1%
Q4 13:34
4TH & 2
OPP 9
0
0.6%
Shaker Reisig pass intercepted Ricardo Jones return for no gain to the CLEM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 3:4899% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18DOWNS12 plays · 36 yds · 4:030% → 0%
Q4 7:44
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+7
0.1%
Shaker Reisig pass complete to Lewis Bond for 7 yds to the CLEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 2
OPP 27
-8
0.1%
Shaker Reisig sacked by Jahiem Lawson for a loss of 8 yards to the CLEM 35Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
0.1%
Shaker Reisig pass incomplete to Dawson Pough, broken up by Branden StrozierSimilar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 10
OPP 35
-5
0.1%
Shaker Reisig sacked by Champ Thompson for a loss of 5 yards to the CLEM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19TD10 plays · 60 yds · 5:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.4%
Christopher Vizzina pass incomplete to Cole Turner, broken up by Max TuckerSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
0.3%
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Tristan Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 49Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+12
0.3%
Keith Adams Jr. run for 12 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, off-side (Favor Bate) to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20Uncategorized2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:23
Bryant Wesco Jr. 38 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Nolan Hauser Kick)
-2.1
TD · Q2 9:10
Turbo Richard 2 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)
-1.8
TD · Q1 4:05
Adam Randall 8 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)
+1.7