2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreWAKE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:42 · Cal Joseph punt for 36 yds , Isaiah Spencer returns for 7 yds to the VT 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:40: Ty Clark III run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK) — WAKE win probability +9.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:10: Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK) — WAKE win probability +10.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:07: John Love 38 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +5.4 pts (now 52%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:41: Connor Calvert 29 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +6.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- FG · Q4 2:14: Connor Calvert 27 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +6.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:15WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 43, tiedClose callPunted · 35.8% before the snapGo for it35.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:40WAKE 4th & 13 at VT 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.0% before the snapGo for it35.7%−0.318% to convertField goalTheir call36.0%81% to makePunt35.0%−0.9average punt
- Q1 7:11VT 4th & 14 at VT 38, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snapGo for it62.5%−0.318% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.8%average punt
- Q1 6:24WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 20, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snapGo for it36.2%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.3%average punt
- Q2 6:42WAKE 4th & 25 at WAKE 44, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snapGo for it31.7%−2.07% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.7%average punt
- Q2 4:47VT 4th & 19 at VT 16, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snapGo for it62.4%−2.410% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.8%average punt
- Q2 1:39VT 4th & 14 at VT 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snapGo for it51.4%−3.017% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.3%average punt
- Q2 0:34WAKE 4th & 3 at VT 37, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.3%53% to convertField goal47.1%−0.240% to makePunt45.5%−1.8average punt
- Q3 10:24VT 4th & 6 at WAKE 15, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snapGo for it37.0%−0.537% to convertField goalTheir call37.5%83% to makePunt30.4%−7.1average punt
- Q3 9:32WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snapGo for it56.9%−1.039% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.9%average punt
- Q3 7:07VT 4th & 2 at WAKE 21, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snapGo for it43.6%57% to convertField goalTheir call42.1%−1.674% to makePunt31.5%−12.2average punt
- Q3 4:41WAKE 4th & 7 at VT 12, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snapGo for it52.5%−1.033% to convertField goalTheir call53.5%86% to makePunt40.6%−12.9average punt
- Q3 2:42VT 4th & 11 at VT 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snapGo for it36.0%−2.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.3%average punt
- Q3 0:34VT 4th & 17 at WAKE 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snapGo for it29.2%−4.413% to convertField goalTheir call33.6%80% to makePunt21.8%−11.8average punt
- Q4 12:42WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 41, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snapGo for it56.6%−5.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.5%average punt
- Q4 8:44VT 4th & 15 at WAKE 31, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snapGo for it35.0%−4.217% to convertField goalTheir call39.2%54% to makePunt34.7%−4.5average punt
- Q4 2:14WAKE 4th & 5 at VT 10, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snapGo for it80.2%37% to convertField goalTheir call80.0%−0.188% to makePunt65.8%−14.3average punt
- Q4 1:43VT 4th & 6 at VT 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.9%39% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.0%−1.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 2:30VT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.3%97% to makeGo for two65.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:01WAKE Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.1%97% to makeGo for two39.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:46VT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.5%97% to makeGo for two65.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:40WAKE Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.1%97% to makeGo for two44.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q2 0:10WAKE Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.2%97% to makeGo for two57.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 3:3835% → 35%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 7 yds to the WAKE 32Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
65.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 2 yds to the WAKE 34Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
64.7%
Cal Joseph punt for 38 yds, fair catch by P.J. Prioleau at the VT 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2INT3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3665% → 65%
WAKEDrive 3FG7 plays · -3 yds · 1:4736% → 36%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
64.1%
PENALTY Deacs False Start 5 yards from Hokies13 to Hokies18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+2
64.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 2 yds to the VT 16Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 13
OPP 16
-5
64.3%
PENALTY Deacs False Start (Steih,George) 5 yards from Hokies16 to Hokies21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 18
OPP 21
+5
64.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 5 yds to the VT 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1864% → 63%
WAKEDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4736% → 36%
VTDrive 6TD8 plays · 43 yds · 3:3764% → 66%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
64.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 14 yds to the WAKE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2335% → 41%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
64.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 2 yds to the WAKE 47Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+15
64.7%
(15:00) Shotgun Ashford,Robby pass incomplete deep right to Barnes,Chris thrown to Hokies32 PENALTY Hokies Roughing The Passer (Bell,Ben) 15 yards from Deacs47 to Hokies38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
64.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 19 yds to the VT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
63.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 4 yds to the VT 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0361% → 67%
WAKEDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:5935% → 33%
VTDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 1:4567% → 65%
WAKEDrive 11TD8 plays · 55 yds · 1:5736% → 48%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
63.9%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 26 yds to the VT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
62.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 5 yds to the VT 24Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 5
OPP 24
-10
63.2%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Ashford,Robby pass complete short right to Claiborne,Demond caught at Hokies27, for 2 yards to the Hokies22 (Bass,Jordan) PENALTY Deacs Illegal Block in Back (Berkhalter,Sterling) 10 yards from Hokies24 to Hokies34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+20
65.1%
Robby Ashford run for 6 yds to the VT 28 for a 1ST down Virginia Tech Penalty, (14 Yards) to the VT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+11
62.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 11 yds to the VT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12PUNT7 plays · -4 yds · 0:5457% → 53%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
56.7%
(02:35) Shotgun Drones,Kyron rush middle for 17 yards gain to the Hokies42 (Turpin,Myles) PENALTY Hokies Holding (Rimac,Tomas) 10 yards from Hokies25 to Hokies15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+5
53.4%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 5 yds to the VT 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13TD8 plays · 44 yds · 1:2349% → 62%
Q2 1:04
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+2
49.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ty Clark III for 2 yds to the VT 37Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+6
52.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 6 yds to the VT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
49.3%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 17 yds to the VT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
38.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15FG13 plays · 60 yds · 4:1942% → 46%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Terion Stewart for 4 yds to the VT 29Similar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
41.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 15 yds to the WAKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
42.8%
Marcellous Hawkins run for 16 yds to the WAKE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4558% → 56%
Q3 9:32
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
43.6%
Cal Joseph punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Spencer at the VT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17FG5 plays · 32 yds · 2:1347% → 52%
WAKEDrive 18FG9 plays · 63 yds · 2:1152% → 64%
VTDrive 19PUNT10 plays · 21 yds · 1:5341% → 36%
Q3 3:51
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+11
37.5%
Kyron Drones run for 11 yds to the VT 47 for a 1ST down Wake Forest Penalty, (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20INT2 plays · 1 yds · 0:4265% → 65%
VTDrive 21FG4 plays · -13 yds · 1:1044% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22PUNT10 plays · 16 yds · 2:1861% → 58%
Q4 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+17
39.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 17 yds to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+7
36.6%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Sawyer Racanelli for 7 yds to the VT 49Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 2
OPP 49
-5
37.6%
(12:54) Joseph,Cal punt 33 yards to the Hokies16 fair catch by Spencer,Isaiah at Hokies16 PENALTY Deacs Illegal Formation 5 yards from Hokies49 to Deacs46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 7
OWN 46
-5
39.3%
PENALTY Deacs Illegal Snap 5 yards from Deacs46 to Deacs41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 12
OWN 41
+7
41.7%
Cal Joseph punt for 36 yds , Isaiah Spencer returns for 7 yds to the VT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23MISSED FG9 plays · 39 yds · 3:5146% → 42%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
46.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 10 yds to the VT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+16
45.8%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Takye Heath for 16 yds to the WAKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
50.5%
(10:52) Shotgun Drones,Kyron pass incomplete deep left to Greene,Donavon thrown to Deacs05 PENALTY Deacs Pass Interference (Prunty,Karon) 15 yards from Deacs41 to Deacs26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
53.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for no gain to the WAKE 26Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 7
OPP 23
-8
49.8%
Kyron Drones sacked by Nuer Gatkuoth for a loss of 8 yards to the WAKE 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24FG17 plays · 59 yds · 6:2067% → 90%
Q4 7:58
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+4
29.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 4 yds to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
28.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ty Clark III for 9 yds to the VT 48Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+15
22.7%
(05:20) Shotgun Ashford,Robby pass incomplete short left to Falayi,Eni thrown to Hokies24 PENALTY Hokies Pass Interference (Bass,Jordan) 15 yards from Hokies41 to Hokies26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
21.6%
(05:15) PENALTY Deacs False Start (Falayi,Eni) 5 yards from Hokies26 to Hokies31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
19.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 4 yds to the VT 22Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+7
19.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ty Clark III for 7 yds to the VT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25DOWNS6 plays · 4 yds · 0:2315% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:10
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 2:40
Ty Clark III run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
-9.5
FG · Q3 4:41
Connor Calvert 29 yd FG GOOD
-6.8