WAKE
Wake Forest 30 at Virginia Tech 23
VT2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey play
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WAKE · Drive 1PUNT · 8 plays · 18 yds
Q1 15:00
Kyle Lowe kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
74.8%
0.0
Q1 14:53
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 7 yds to the WAKE 32
73.2%
-1.6
Q1 14:07
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 2 yds to the WAKE 34
72.7%
-0.5
Q1 13:35
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the WAKE 36 for a 1ST down
72.7%
0.0
Q1 13:07
Demond Claiborne run for 5 yds to the WAKE 41
72.5%
-0.2
Q1 12:32
Ty Clark III run for 2 yds to the WAKE 43
71.5%
-1.0
Q1 11:56
Demond Claiborne run for no gain to the WAKE 43
71.5%
0.0
Q1 11:15
Cal Joseph punt for 38 yds, fair catch by P.J. Prioleau at the VT 19
71.8%
+0.3
VT · Drive 2INT · 3 plays · 5 yds
Q1 11:03
Terion Stewart run for 5 yds to the VT 24
75.0%
+3.2
Q1 10:34
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Ayden Greene
75.0%
0.0
Q1 10:27
Kyron Drones pass intercepted Dallas Afalava return for 3 yds to the VT 13
75.0%
0.0
WAKE · Drive 3FG · 7 plays · -3 yds
Q1 10:27
PENALTY Deacs False Start 5 yards from Hokies13 to Hokies18. NO PLAY.
70.5%
-4.5
Q1 10:23
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Micah Mays Jr.
70.5%
0.0
Q1 10:13
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 2 yds to the VT 16
70.5%
0.0
Q1 9:38
PENALTY Deacs False Start (Steih,George) 5 yards from Hokies16 to Hokies21. NO PLAY.
70.5%
0.0
Q1 9:09
Robby Ashford pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 5 yds to the VT 16
70.6%
+0.1
Q1 8:40
Connor Calvert 33 yd FG GOOD
66.9%
-3.7
Q1 8:34
Caleb Carlson kickoff for 64 yds , P.J. Prioleau return for 26 yds to the VT 39 Wake Forest Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the VT 42
72.4%
+5.5
VT · Drive 4PUNT · 5 plays · -4 yds
Q1 8:29
Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the VT 43
73.0%
+0.6
Q1 7:56
Terion Stewart run for no gain to the VT 43
73.0%
0.0
Q1 7:20
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Marcellous Hawkins
72.8%
-0.2
Q1 7:20
PENALTY Hokies Delay Of Game 5 yards from Hokies43 to Hokies38. NO PLAY.
72.8%
0.0
Q1 7:11
Nick Veltsistas punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WAKE 15
72.6%
-0.2
WAKE · Drive 5PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q1 7:11
PENALTY Deacs False Start (Johnson,Kamrean) 5 yards from Deacs15 to Deacs10. NO PLAY.
68.2%
-4.5
Q1 7:03
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 10 yds to the WAKE 20
68.2%
0.0
Q1 6:41
Robby Ashford pass incomplete
68.2%
0.0
Q1 6:32
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Sterling Berkhalter
68.2%
0.0
Q1 6:24
Cal Joseph punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WAKE 43
67.9%
-0.3
VT · Drive 6TD · 8 plays · 43 yds
Q1 6:07
Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 14 yds to the WAKE 29 for a 1ST down
74.5%
+6.7
Q1 5:45
Marcellous Hawkins run for 12 yds to the WAKE 17 for a 1ST down
72.7%
-1.8
Q1 5:10
Cameron Seldon run for 7 yds to the WAKE 10
72.7%
0.0
Q1 4:44
Marcellous Hawkins run for 2 yds to the WAKE 8
72.7%
0.0
Q1 4:24
Kyron Drones run for 2 yds to the WAKE 6 for a 1ST down
72.5%
-0.2
Q1 3:44
Kyron Drones run for 4 yds to the WAKE 2
72.6%
+0.1
Q1 3:08
Kyron Drones run for a loss of 1 yard to the WAKE 3
72.6%
0.0
Q1 2:30
Marcellous Hawkins run for 3 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
80.8%
+8.2
WAKE · Drive 7TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q1 2:30
Kyle Lowe kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
79.8%
-1.0
Q1 2:24
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the WAKE 28
77.3%
-2.5
Q1 1:48
Demond Claiborne run for 4 yds to the WAKE 32
77.0%
-0.3
Q1 1:09
Ty Clark III run for 13 yds to the WAKE 45 for a 1ST down
77.0%
0.0
Q1 0:30
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Micah Mays Jr.
75.7%
-1.3
Q1 0:00
Robby Ashford pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 2 yds to the WAKE 47
75.7%
-0.1
Q2 14:55
(15:00) Shotgun Ashford,Robby pass incomplete deep right to Barnes,Chris thrown to Hokies32 PENALTY Hokies Roughing The Passer (Bell,Ben) 15 yards from Deacs47 to Hokies38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
75.5%
-0.2
Q2 14:41
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 19 yds to the VT 19 for a 1ST down
74.8%
-0.7
Q2 14:05
Robby Ashford run for 4 yds to the VT 15
74.8%
0.0
Q2 13:23
Robby Ashford pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 4 yds to the VT 11
74.8%
0.0
Q2 13:01
Demond Claiborne run for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
63.8%
-11.0
VT · Drive 8TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q2 13:01
Caleb Carlson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
65.7%
+1.9
Q2 12:49
Terion Stewart run for 43 yds to the WAKE 32 for a 1ST down
70.1%
+4.4
Q2 12:14
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 5 yds to the WAKE 27
72.4%
+2.4
Q2 11:39
Kyron Drones run for 14 yds to the WAKE 13 for a 1ST down
72.4%
-0.1
Q2 11:09
Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the WAKE 12
72.4%
0.0
Q2 10:30
Terion Stewart run for 3 yds to the WAKE 9
72.4%
0.0
Q2 9:46
Kyron Drones pass complete to Takye Heath for 9 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
82.2%
+9.8
WAKE · Drive 9PUNT · 8 plays · 19 yds
Q2 9:46
Kyle Lowe kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
81.3%
-0.9
Q2 9:41
Demond Claiborne run for 4 yds to the WAKE 29
76.9%
-4.5
Q2 8:46
Robby Ashford pass complete to Sawyer Racanelli for 19 yds to the WAKE 48 for a 1ST down
76.9%
0.0
Q2 8:09
Chris Barnes run for 11 yds to the VT 41 for a 1ST down
76.0%
-0.9
Q2 7:31
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the VT 39
75.6%
-0.5
Q2 6:55
Wake Forest Penalty, (Yards) to the WAKE 44
75.4%
-0.2
Q2 6:51
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Chris Barnes
76.2%
+0.9
Q2 6:42
Cal Joseph punt for 37 yds , Isaiah Spencer returns for 6 yds to the VT 25
76.5%
+0.3
VT · Drive 10PUNT · 4 plays · -9 yds
Q2 6:32
Kyron Drones pass complete to Takye Heath for 2 yds to the VT 23
82.0%
+5.5
Q2 6:03
Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 4 yds to the VT 27
82.0%
0.0
Q2 5:31
Kyron Drones sacked by Langston Hardy for a loss of 11 yards to the VT 16
82.0%
+0.1
Q2 4:47
Nick Veltsistas punt for 39 yds
81.6%
-0.4
WAKE · Drive 11TD · 8 plays · 55 yds
Q2 4:37
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 26 yds to the VT 29 for a 1ST down
77.5%
-4.1
Q2 4:19
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 5 yds to the VT 24
76.7%
-0.8
Q2 4:00
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Eni Falayi
76.7%
0.0
Q2 3:55
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Ashford,Robby pass complete short right to Claiborne,Demond caught at Hokies27, for 2 yards to the Hokies22 (Bass,Jordan) PENALTY Deacs Illegal Block in Back (Berkhalter,Sterling) 10 yards from Hokies24 to Hokies34. NO PLAY.
76.7%
0.0
Q2 3:31
Robby Ashford run for 6 yds to the VT 28 for a 1ST down Virginia Tech Penalty, (14 Yards) to the VT 14 for a 1ST down
76.7%
0.0
Q2 3:11
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Carlos Hernandez
76.7%
0.0
Q2 3:04
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 11 yds to the VT 3 for a 1ST down
76.7%
0.0
Q2 2:40
Ty Clark III run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
61.3%
-15.3
VT · Drive 12PUNT · 7 plays · -4 yds
Q2 2:40
Caleb Carlson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
63.3%
+2.0
Q2 2:33
(02:35) Shotgun Drones,Kyron rush middle for 17 yards gain to the Hokies42 (Turpin,Myles) PENALTY Hokies Holding (Rimac,Tomas) 10 yards from Hokies25 to Hokies15. NO PLAY.
66.2%
+2.9
Q2 2:19
Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the VT 16
66.2%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Virginia Tech, clock 02:00
65.6%
-0.6
Q2 1:53
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Terion Stewart
65.6%
0.0
Q2 1:50
Kyron Drones pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 5 yds to the VT 21
65.6%
0.0
Q2 1:39
Nick Veltsistas punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VT 44
65.6%
0.0
WAKE · Drive 13TD · 8 plays · 44 yds
Q2 1:33
Chris Barnes run for 5 yds to the VT 39
57.3%
-8.3
Q2 1:04
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ty Clark III for 2 yds to the VT 37
57.2%
-0.1
Q2 0:39
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Chris Barnes
56.9%
-0.3
Q2 0:39
Timeout Wake Forest, clock 00:39
57.5%
+0.5
Q2 0:34
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 6 yds to the VT 31 for a 1ST down
57.5%
0.0
Q2 0:22
Robby Ashford pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 17 yds to the VT 14 for a 1ST down
57.3%
-0.2
Q2 0:15
Robby Ashford run for 3 yds to the VT 11
57.3%
0.0
Q2 0:10
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
42.0%
-15.4
VT · Drive 14END OF HALF · 2 plays · -1 yds
Q2 0:04
Caleb Carlson kickoff for 50 yds , Isaiah Spencer return for 17 yds to the VT 32
43.8%
+1.9
Q2 0:00
K. Drones takes a knee
43.5%
-0.3
VT · Drive 15FG · 13 plays · 60 yds
Q3 15:00
Caleb Carlson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
46.0%
+2.5
Q3 14:43
Kyron Drones pass complete to Terion Stewart for 4 yds to the VT 29
44.9%
-1.1
Q3 14:19
Terion Stewart run for 5 yds to the VT 34
44.9%
0.0
Q3 13:57
Terion Stewart run for 3 yds to the VT 37 for a 1ST down
44.9%
0.0
Q3 13:26
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 15 yds to the WAKE 48 for a 1ST down
43.9%
-1.0
Q3 13:03
Marcellous Hawkins run for 16 yds to the WAKE 32 for a 1ST down
47.0%
+3.1
Q3 12:33
Marcellous Hawkins run for 1 yd to the WAKE 31
48.5%
+1.5
Q3 11:59
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Ayden Greene
46.4%
-2.0
Q3 11:49
Kyron Drones run for 12 yds to the WAKE 19 for a 1ST down
46.4%
0.0
Q3 11:16
Kyron Drones run for no gain to the WAKE 19
46.4%
0.0
Q3 10:47
Kyron Drones pass incomplete
46.4%
0.0
Q3 10:42
Virginia Tech Penalty, (Yards) declined
46.4%
0.0
Q3 10:24
John Love 32 yd FG GOOD
60.0%
+13.5
WAKE · Drive 16PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q3 10:24
Kyle Lowe kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
57.7%
-2.3
Q3 10:17
Ty Clark III run for 4 yds to the WAKE 29
49.9%
-7.8
Q3 9:44
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Sterling Berkhalter
49.9%
0.0
Q3 9:40
Robby Ashford pass incomplete
49.9%
0.0
Q3 9:32
Cal Joseph punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Spencer at the VT 47
49.9%
0.0
VT · Drive 17FG · 5 plays · 32 yds
Q3 9:20
Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 24 yds to the WAKE 29 for a 1ST down
58.7%
+8.8
Q3 9:01
Marcellous Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the WAKE 30
60.6%
+1.9
Q3 8:32
Kyron Drones run for 6 yds to the WAKE 24
60.6%
0.0
Q3 7:49
Kyron Drones pass complete to P.J. Prioleau for 3 yds to the WAKE 21
60.4%
-0.2
Q3 7:07
John Love 38 yd FG GOOD
67.5%
+7.1
WAKE · Drive 18FG · 9 plays · 63 yds
Q3 7:07
Kyle Lowe kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
65.2%
-2.3
Q3 6:52
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 2 yds to the WAKE 23
58.0%
-7.2
Q3 6:23
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Micah Mays Jr.
58.0%
0.0
Q3 6:11
Robby Ashford pass complete to Sawyer Racanelli for 62 yds to the VT 15 for a 1ST down
58.0%
0.0
Q3 5:28
Timeout Wake Forest, clock 05:28
55.9%
-2.2
Q3 5:23
Robby Ashford run for 3 yds to the VT 12
55.9%
0.0
Q3 4:54
Deshawn Purdie pass incomplete to Eni Falayi
55.8%
0.0
Q3 4:50
Wake Forest Penalty, (Yards) declined
55.8%
0.0
Q3 4:41
Connor Calvert 29 yd FG GOOD
47.9%
-8.0
VT · Drive 19PUNT · 10 plays · 21 yds
Q3 4:41
Caleb Carlson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
49.2%
+1.3
Q3 4:35
Marcellous Hawkins run for 11 yds to the VT 36 for a 1ST down
54.6%
+5.5
Q3 4:03
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Ayden Greene
54.4%
-0.3
Q3 3:59
Kyron Drones pass incomplete
54.4%
0.0
Q3 3:59
Timeout Virginia Tech, clock 03:59
54.1%
-0.2
Q3 3:51
Kyron Drones run for 11 yds to the VT 47 for a 1ST down Wake Forest Penalty, (Yards) declined for a 1ST down
50.9%
-3.2
Q3 3:34
Marcellous Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 46
51.8%
+0.8
Q3 2:59
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Isaiah Spencer
51.4%
-0.4
Q3 2:52
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Ayden Greene
51.4%
0.0
Q3 2:42
Nick Veltsistas punt for 52 yds
51.4%
0.0
WAKE · Drive 20INT · 2 plays · 1 yds
Q3 2:35
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the WAKE 3
46.6%
-4.8
Q3 1:53
Robby Ashford pass intercepted Isaiah Brown-Murray return for 11 yds to the WAKE 4
46.6%
0.0
VT · Drive 21FG · 4 plays · -13 yds
Q3 1:44
Marcellous Hawkins run for 3 yds to the WAKE 1
54.3%
+7.7
Q3 1:21
Kyron Drones run for no gain to the WAKE 1
54.0%
-0.3
Q3 0:49
Virginia Tech Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the WAKE 17
54.0%
0.0
Q3 0:34
John Love 34 yd FG GOOD Wake Forest Penalty, (Yards) declined
63.4%
+9.3
WAKE · Drive 22PUNT · 10 plays · 16 yds
Q3 0:34
Kyle Lowe kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
61.2%
-2.2
Q3 0:00
JaMario Clements run for 1 yd to the WAKE 26
54.9%
-6.3
Q4 14:50
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 17 yds to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST down
54.9%
0.0
Q4 14:16
JaMario Clements run for 1 yd to the WAKE 44
52.9%
-2.0
Q4 13:49
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Carlos Hernandez
52.9%
0.0
Q4 13:33
Robby Ashford pass complete to Sawyer Racanelli for 7 yds to the VT 49
52.9%
0.0
Q4 12:58
Timeout Wake Forest, clock 12:58
51.2%
-1.7
Q4 12:51
(12:54) Joseph,Cal punt 33 yards to the Hokies16 fair catch by Spencer,Isaiah at Hokies16 PENALTY Deacs Illegal Formation 5 yards from Hokies49 to Deacs46. NO PLAY.
51.2%
0.0
Q4 12:51
PENALTY Deacs Illegal Snap 5 yards from Deacs46 to Deacs41. NO PLAY.
51.2%
0.0
Q4 12:42
Cal Joseph punt for 36 yds , Isaiah Spencer returns for 7 yds to the VT 30
51.4%
+0.3
VT · Drive 23MISSED FG · 9 plays · 39 yds
Q4 12:35
Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 10 yds to the VT 40 for a 1ST down
61.2%
+9.7
Q4 12:06
Marcellous Hawkins run for 3 yds to the VT 43
61.8%
+0.6
Q4 11:32
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Benji Gosnell
60.8%
-1.0
Q4 11:19
Kyron Drones pass complete to Takye Heath for 16 yds to the WAKE 41 for a 1ST down
60.5%
-0.2
Q4 10:47
(10:52) Shotgun Drones,Kyron pass incomplete deep left to Greene,Donavon thrown to Deacs05 PENALTY Deacs Pass Interference (Prunty,Karon) 15 yards from Deacs41 to Deacs26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
62.7%
+2.1
Q4 10:40
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for no gain to the WAKE 26
63.0%
+0.3
Q4 10:05
Kyron Drones run for 3 yds to the WAKE 23
63.0%
0.0
Q4 9:26
Kyron Drones sacked by Nuer Gatkuoth for a loss of 8 yards to the WAKE 31
64.2%
+1.2
Q4 8:44
John Love 49 yd FG MISSED
63.8%
-0.4
WAKE · Drive 24FG · 17 plays · 59 yds
Q4 8:34
Robby Ashford run for 8 yds to the WAKE 39
49.9%
-13.9
Q4 7:58
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 4 yds to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST down
48.7%
-1.2
Q4 7:33
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Carlos Hernandez
48.4%
-0.3
Q4 7:24
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ty Clark III for 9 yds to the VT 48
48.4%
0.0
Q4 6:49
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the VT 46 for a 1ST down
48.2%
-0.3
Q4 6:01
Robby Ashford run for 5 yds to the VT 41
48.7%
+0.5
Q4 5:15
(05:20) Shotgun Ashford,Robby pass incomplete short left to Falayi,Eni thrown to Hokies24 PENALTY Hokies Pass Interference (Bass,Jordan) 15 yards from Hokies41 to Hokies26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
46.4%
-2.3
Q4 5:15
(05:15) PENALTY Deacs False Start (Falayi,Eni) 5 yards from Hokies26 to Hokies31. NO PLAY.
46.4%
0.0
Q4 5:10
Chris Barnes run for 5 yds to the VT 26
46.4%
0.0
Q4 4:26
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 4 yds to the VT 22
45.4%
-1.0
Q4 3:48
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ty Clark III for 7 yds to the VT 15 for a 1ST down
44.5%
-0.9
Q4 3:04
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the VT 14
39.8%
-4.7
Q4 2:23
Robby Ashford run for 3 yds to the VT 11
38.5%
-1.3
Q4 2:23
Timeout Virginia Tech, clock 02:23
38.5%
0.0
Q4 2:18
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the VT 10
38.5%
0.0
Q4 2:18
Timeout Virginia Tech, clock 02:18
39.2%
+0.8
Q4 2:14
Connor Calvert 27 yd FG GOOD
29.1%
-10.1
VT · Drive 25DOWNS · 6 plays · 4 yds
Q4 2:14
Caleb Carlson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
29.3%
+0.2
Q4 2:06
Kyron Drones run for 4 yds to the VT 29
34.2%
+4.9
Q4 2:00
Timeout Virginia Tech, clock 02:00
27.4%
-6.8
Q4 1:55
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to P.J. Prioleau
26.9%
-0.6
Q4 1:48
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Benji Gosnell
26.9%
0.0
Q4 1:43
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Takye Heath
26.9%
0.0
WAKE · Drive 26END OF GAME · 3 plays · -5 yds
Q4 1:33
D. Purdie takes a knee
23.8%
-3.0
Q4 0:53
D. Purdie takes a knee
23.8%
0.0
Q4 0:00
D. Purdie takes a knee
25.8%
+1.9
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:10
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
-15.4
TD · Q2 2:40
Ty Clark III run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
-15.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:34
Robby Ashford run for 8 yds to the WAKE 39
-13.9