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UVA

Virginia 30 at Louisville 27

LOU
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:57 · Carter Schwartz punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cam Ross at the UVA 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 109Pregame prior+6.0Home team on offense−8.2Garbage-time factor−4.2Score differential−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:25: Miller Moss pass intercepted Kam Robinson return for 47 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +20.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:41: Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 13 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK) — LOU win probability +28.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q4 1:08: Cooper Ranvier 50 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +23.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: C.Ranvier 24 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-S.Kochav, Holder-D.Chapeau. — LOU win probability +21.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: J.Taylor rushed for 2 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — UVA win probability +60.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:48UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:12LOU 4th & 1 at UVA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00LOU 4th & 1 at UVA 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    59.7%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−6.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:09UVA 4th & 1 at LOU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%−1.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:10UVA 4th & 11 at LOU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:02LOU 4th & 7 at UVA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    58.5%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:51LOU 4th & 24 at LOU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−5.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:31UVA 4th & 10 at LOU 35, tied
    Close callWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:57LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−1.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:42UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−3.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:43LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−4.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:30UVA 4th & 12 at LOU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−7.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:30LOU 4th & 13 at LOU 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−2.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:29UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−1.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:22UVA 4th & 1 at LOU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−11.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−7.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:31UVA 4th & 20 at UVA 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−8.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:08LOU 4th & 2 at UVA 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−2.6
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−17.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:00LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:56UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:26LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:25UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:41LOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:5732% → 32%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.0%
J'Mari Taylor run for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
67.9%
J'Mari Taylor run for 11 yds to the UVA 40 Virginia Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UVA 30Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
67.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 13 yds to the UVA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
67.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 41Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+6
67.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 6 yds to the UVA 47Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
67.4%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+1
67.6%
Elijah Slibeck punt for 40 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 1 yd to the LOU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2FUMBLE TD
14 plays · 47 yds · 5:2168% → 64%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
67.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 12 yds to the LOU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
67.6%
Isaac Brown run for 6 yds to the LOU 32Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-10
67.6%
Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LOU 22Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+8
67.4%
Virginia Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the LOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
67.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 12 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
67.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 16 yds to the UVA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-15
68.0%
Louisville Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the LOU 43Similar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
67.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for no gain to the LOU 43Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
67.5%
Caullin Lacy run for 9 yds to the UVA 48Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
67.7%
Miller Moss run for 2 yds to the UVA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
67.7%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
67.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 6 yds to the UVA 40Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+3
67.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kris Hughes for 3 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+61
64.2%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 2 yards Isaac Brown fumbled, recovered by UVA Donavon Platt , return for 61 yds (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:5764% → 67%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
63.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for a loss of 7 yards to the LOU 18Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+6
63.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duke Watson for 6 yds to the LOU 24Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+14
62.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 14 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
63.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+14
62.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 14 yds to the UVA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
62.9%
Duke Watson run for 2 yds to the UVA 46 Duke Watson fumbled, recovered by LOU Mahamane MoussaSimilar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+10
62.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 10 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+27
62.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 27 yds to the UVA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
62.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 4 yds to the UVA 5Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
62.3%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
61.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 4 yds to the UVA 1Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.6%
Miller Moss 1 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 7:5935% → 47%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
64.8%
Chandler Morris run for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 23 Chandler Morris fumbled, recovered by UVA Chandler MorrisSimilar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+13
64.8%
J'Mari Taylor run for 13 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
64.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 4 yds to the UVA 40Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
63.1%
J'Mari Taylor run for 1 yd to the UVA 41Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+7
63.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 7 yds to the UVA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
62.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
63.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 6 yds to the LOU 46Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+14
62.5%
Xavier Brown run for 14 yds to the LOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
61.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-5
61.2%
Harrison Waylee run for a loss of 5 yards to the LOU 37Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 15
OPP 37
-5
63.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 5 yds to the LOU 32 Virginia Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LOU 42Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 20
OPP 42
+19
63.0%
J'Mari Taylor run for 19 yds to the LOU 23Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+5
61.8%
J'Mari Taylor run for 5 yds to the LOU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
59.7%
Xavier Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 19Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
58.4%
Xavier Brown run for no gain to the LOU 19Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+19
49.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 19 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+15
52.9%
Louisville Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:0054% → 68%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
54.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 27 yds to the UVA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
56.5%
Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
56.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 4 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+5
55.9%
Miller Moss run for 5 yds to the UVA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
56.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 10 yds to the UVA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
56.7%
Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the UVA 15Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
68.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 15 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:5338% → 38%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.6%
J'Mari Taylor run for 1 yd to the UVA 26Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+26
61.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to John Rogers for 26 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
57.9%
J'Mari Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 12
50
+6
58.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to J'Mari Taylor for 6 yds to the LOU 44Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-5
57.4%
Virginia Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LOU 49Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
59.4%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 11
OPP 49
+17
61.6%
Elijah Slibeck punt for 32 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 17 yds to the LOU 32 Virginia Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (-15 Yards) to the LOU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7MISSED FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:5666% → 66%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
66.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Antonio Meeks for 11 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
66.7%
Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the UVA 36Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+8
66.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 8 yds to the UVA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
67.7%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
67.6%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+3
66.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Isaac Brown for 3 yds to the UVA 25Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
65.7%
Cooper Ranvier 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
61.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 3:5464% → 60%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
63.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 5 yds to the LOU 18Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+3
63.5%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 21Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+6
62.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 6 yds to the LOU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
63.5%
Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the LOU 32Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-5
64.5%
Louisville Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LOU 27Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-4
62.6%
Miller Moss sacked by Daniel Rickert for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 23Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 14
OWN 23
-10
60.9%
Miller Moss sacked by Mitchell Melton for a loss of 10 yards to the LOU 13Similar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 24
OWN 13
0
60.2%
Carter Schwartz punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cam Ross at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:0944% → 40%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
50
+8
56.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 8 yds to the LOU 42Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+1
55.6%
J'Mari Taylor run for 1 yd to the LOU 41Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+6
55.6%
J'Mari Taylor run for 6 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
54.4%
Xavier Brown run for 4 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+1
53.8%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 30Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 5
OPP 30
-5
55.2%
Virginia Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the LOU 35Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
56.1%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
59.8%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11INT TD
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:4664% → 44%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
63.8%
Keyjuan Brown run for 11 yds to the LOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
66.3%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
65.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-47
44.2%
Miller Moss pass intercepted Kam Robinson return for 47 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1944% → 42%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.7%
Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the LOU 27Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
43.9%
Keyjuan Brown run for 4 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
42.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Keyjuan Brown for no gain to the LOU 31Similar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
41.6%
Carter Schwartz punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cam Ross at the UVA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:0262% → 61%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
37.7%
Chandler Morris run for 1 yd to the UVA 32Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-1
37.4%
Harrison Waylee run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 31Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-3
37.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to J'Mari Taylor for a loss of 3 yards to the UVA 28Similar
Q3 2:42
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
38.9%
Elijah Slibeck punt for 71 yds, downed at the LOU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5140% → 38%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
40.4%
Keyjuan Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 2Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
39.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
38.4%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+3
37.5%
David Chapeau punt for 41 yds , Cam Ross returns for 3 yds to the LOU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15FG
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:5368% → 70%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
31.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Ja'Maric Morris for 13 yds to the LOU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
30.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to J'Mari Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 29Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 12
OPP 29
0
30.8%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 12
OPP 29
0
31.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+46
28.6%
Will Bettridge 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+15
29.6%
Louisville Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:1130% → 25%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
29.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 14 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
30.5%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-12
30.0%
Miller Moss sacked by Mitchell Melton for a loss of 12 yards to the LOU 29 Miller Moss fumbled, recovered by LOU Miller Moss , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 22
OWN 29
+9
25.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 9 yds to the LOU 38Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
25.2%
David Chapeau punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cam Ross at the UVA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5673% → 76%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.9%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
26.9%
Chandler Morris run for 4 yds to the UVA 24Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
23.8%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+29
24.5%
Elijah Slibeck punt for 60 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 29 yds to the LOU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:3727% → 52%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
26.8%
Isaac Brown run for 22 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
29.2%
Isaac Brown run for 9 yds to the UVA 24Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+5
29.2%
Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the UVA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
28.9%
Caullin Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 20Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+7
23.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 7 yds to the UVA 13Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
51.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 13 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 4:5861% → 67%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.8%
J'Mari Taylor run for 9 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
36.3%
J'Mari Taylor run for 11 yds to the UVA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
33.9%
J'Mari Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 43Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+7
35.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to J'Mari Taylor for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 5
50
+4
31.3%
J'Mari Taylor run for 4 yds to the LOU 46Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
33.0%
J'Mari Taylor run for 2 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
26.8%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
26.7%
Xavier Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 41Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-13
26.3%
Chandler Morris sacked by Antonio Watts for a loss of 13 yards to the UVA 46Similar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 20
OWN 46
+8
32.6%
Elijah Slibeck punt for 34 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 8 yds to the LOU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 2:5641% → 60%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
40.6%
Miller Moss sacked by Hunter Osborne for a loss of 5 yards to the LOU 23Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+5
37.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 5 yds to the LOU 28Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+14
36.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 14 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
38.6%
Isaac Brown run for no gain to the LOU 42Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-15
35.9%
Miller Moss sacked by Jason Hammond for a loss of 15 yards to the LOU 27Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 25
OWN 27
+33
29.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kris Hughes for 33 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
38.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Isaac Brown for 3 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+5
38.9%
Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 2
OPP 32
0
36.6%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+50
60.3%
Cooper Ranvier 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21END OF GAME
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:4550% → 48%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 1 yd to the UVA 26Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
50.2%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+17
52.1%
Chandler Morris run for 17 yds to the UVA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
44.6%
Chandler Morris sacked by Wesley Bailey for a loss of 7 yards to the UVA 36Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+2
52.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to J'Mari Taylor for 2 yds to the UVA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0068% → 87%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
67.5%
M.Moss pass complete. Catch made by J.Skinner for 11 yards. Tackled by E.Minter at UVA 14.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
67.5%
M.Moss steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Bell.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+8
67.5%
M.Moss pass complete. Catch made by J.Skinner for 8 yards. Tackled by E.Minter at UVA 6.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
65.1%
M.Moss pass complete. Catch made by I.Brown for 5 yards. Tackled by UVA at UVA 1. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion and the play was overturned. M.Moss steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for I.Brown.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+24
86.6%
C.Ranvier 24 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-S.Kochav, Holder-D.Chapeau.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0016% → 89%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
84.3%
C.Morris pass complete. Catch made by J.Rogers for 14 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Evans at LOU 11.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
71.2%
J.Taylor rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by R.Konga; C.Lubin at LOU 9.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+7
71.2%
C.Morris scrambles for 7 yards. Tackled by J.Mack; D.Hutchinson at LOU 2.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
11.3%
J.Taylor rushed for 2 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
J.Taylor rushed for 2 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
-60
TD · Q4 9:41
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 13 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
+28.3
FG · Q4 1:08
Cooper Ranvier 50 yd FG GOOD
+23.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com