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MIA

Miami 28 at Florida State 22

FSU
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:11 · Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 15 yds to the MIA 11 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Home team on offense−36.3Score differential−19.0Garbage-time factor−15.3Pregame prior−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:25: Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 44 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK) — MIA win probability +8.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:09: Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 40 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK) — MIA win probability +12.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:53: Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 24 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK) — MIA win probability +6.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:22: Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 6 yds for a TD (Tommy Castellanos pass to Lawayne McCoy for Two-Point Conversion) — FSU win probability +14.0 pts (now 18%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:20: Jake Weinberg 35 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +14.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:02FSU 4th & 5 at MIA 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:41FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:06MIA 4th & 1 at FSU 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.8%−1.0
    88% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:33FSU 4th & 8 at MIA 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:37FSU 4th & 17 at MIA 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    32.9%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:10MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:06MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 48, up 11
    Close callPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:45FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:09MIA 4th & 2 at FSU 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−2.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:47FSU 4th & 16 at FSU 37, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:00MIA 4th & 16 at MIA 20, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:32MIA 4th & 7 at FSU 40, up 17
    Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:18FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 34, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:24FSU 4th & 5 at MIA 35, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%−0.1
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:11FSU 4th & 8 at MIA 26, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:12MIA 4th & 8 at FSU 23, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 0:50MIA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:25MIA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:09MIA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:53MIA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:04FSU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.9%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:22FSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:4642% → 44%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.9%
Ousmane Kromah run for 7 yds to the FSU 32Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
42.0%
Ousmane Kromah run for 1 yd to the FSU 33Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+28
42.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Ousmane Kromah for 28 yds to the MIA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
42.6%
Tommy Castellanos run for 15 yds to the MIA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
42.9%
Micahi Danzy run for 4 yds to the MIA 20Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
43.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 5 yds to the MIA 15Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+6
43.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 6 yds to the MIA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
43.5%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the MIA 6Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
43.7%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q1 10:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
43.7%
Tommy Castellanos run for 1 yd to the MIA 5Similar
Q1 10:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
44.0%
Jake Weinberg 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:1356% → 55%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 3 yds to the MIA 28Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
44.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
44.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 6 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
44.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 38Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
44.5%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Malachi ToneySimilar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-8
44.7%
Carson Beck sacked by Blake Nichelson for a loss of 8 yards to the MIA 30 Miami Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the MIA 30Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 16
OWN 30
0
45.4%
Dylan Joyce punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Squirrel White at the FSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2445% → 45%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
44.8%
Tommy Castellanos run for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 16Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+15
44.8%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 15 yds to the FSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
45.2%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the FSU 32Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
45.2%
Tommy Castellanos run for 4 yds to the FSU 36Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
45.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.Similar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
45.0%
Mac Chiumento punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 4:4254% → 59%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
45.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 3 yds to the MIA 24Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+10
46.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 10 yds to the MIA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+47
45.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 47 yds to the FSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
44.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the FSU 14Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
44.7%
CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the FSU 10Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
45.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the FSU 10Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
45.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the FSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
44.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Alex Bauman for 4 yds to the FSU 4Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
40.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 4 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5INT
14 plays · 34 yds · 4:1743% → 43%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
43.0%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (Luke Petitbon) to the FSU 20Similar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
42.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 2 yds to the FSU 22Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
42.8%
Tommy Castellanos run for 2 yds to the FSU 24Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+11
42.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 11 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
43.4%
Roydell Williams run for no gain to the FSU 35Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
43.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Jaylin LucasSimilar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+5
42.5%
Miami Penalty, Defensive Offside (Rueben Bain Jr.) to the FSU 40Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+17
44.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 17 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
45.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the MIA 42Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-1
45.4%
Micahi Danzy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 43Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+2
44.8%
Tommy Castellanos run for 2 yds to the MIA 41Similar
Q2 11:33
4TH & 8
OPP 41
-43
42.5%
Tommy Castellanos pass intercepted Bryce Fitzgerald return for 43 yds to the FSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD
1 play · 44 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
33.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 44 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:3435% → 32%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
34.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Ousmane Kromah for 9 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
35.3%
Ousmane Kromah run for 4 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
35.5%
Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (Rueben Bain Jr.) to the MIA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
36.2%
Ousmane Kromah run for 4 yds to the MIA 43Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+6
35.7%
Tommy Castellanos run for 6 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-15
35.7%
Florida State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Rizy) to the FSU 48Similar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 25
OWN 48
+2
34.8%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 23
50
+2
34.5%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 2 yds to the MIA 48Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 21
OPP 48
+4
33.1%
Tommy Castellanos run for 4 yds to the MIA 44Similar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 17
OPP 44
0
32.2%
Mac Chiumento punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1667% → 67%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
33.2%
Jordan Lyle run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 13Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+9
33.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Jordan Lyle for 9 yds to the MIA 22Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 2
OWN 22
-5
32.9%
Miami Penalty, False Start (Anez Cooper) to the MIA 17Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+4
33.1%
Carson Beck run for 4 yds to the MIA 21Similar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
33.3%
Dylan Joyce punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
50
+4
33.0%
Ousmane Kromah run for 4 yds to the MIA 46 Ousmane Kromah fumbled, forced by Zechariah Poyser, recovered by MIA Keionte ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3969% → 69%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
30.8%
Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the MIA 48Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-5
30.6%
Miami Penalty, Illegal Motion (Keelan Marion) to the MIA 43Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+5
30.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 5 yds to the MIA 48Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
30.1%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Tony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
30.9%
Dylan Joyce punt for 42 yds, downed at the FSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:1530% → 29%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
30.0%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 7 yds Duce Robinson fumbled, forced by Jakobe Thomas, recovered by FSU Randy Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+4
29.7%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 4 yds to the FSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
29.6%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+10
29.5%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 10 yds to the FSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-8
29.8%
Tommy Castellanos sacked by Akheem Mesidor for a loss of 8 yards to the FSU 23Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 18
OWN 23
+13
28.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 13 yds to the FSU 36Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
29.7%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
29.1%
Mac Chiumento punt for 56 yds, downed at the MIA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
29.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:3370% → 86%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.9%
CharMar Brown run for 5 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
29.4%
Carson Beck run for 3 yds to the MIA 33Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
29.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Alex Bauman for 8 yds to the MIA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
28.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 5 yds to the MIA 46Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
27.5%
CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 1
50
+2
27.3%
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the FSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
26.8%
Miami Penalty, False Start (Markel Bell) to the MIA 47Similar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 15
OWN 47
-1
27.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 46Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+8
26.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 8 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+6
25.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 6 yds to the FSU 40Similar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+40
13.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 40 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14INT
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:1315% → 17%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.4%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
15.0%
Tommy Castellanos run for 18 yds to the FSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
16.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 20 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
16.6%
Tommy Castellanos pass intercepted, touchback. Jakobe Thomas return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:5088% → 98%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
12.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 5 yds to the MIA 25Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+11
11.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 11 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
10.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 5 yds to the MIA 41Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+9
10.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
50
+22
9.5%
Keelan Marion run for 22 yds to the FSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
8.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the FSU 24Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
8.2%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Tony JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+24
1.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 24 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:532% → 1%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
1.7%
Ousmane Kromah run for 3 yds to the FSU 28 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (Wesley Bissainthe) to the FSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
1.7%
Jaylin Lucas run for 3 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+2
1.7%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the FSU 48Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-11
1.4%
Tommy Castellanos sacked by Jakobe Thomas for a loss of 11 yards to the FSU 37Similar
Q3 1:47
4TH & 16
OWN 37
0
0.9%
Mac Chiumento punt for 48 yds, downed at the MIA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:3899% → 99%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
1.4%
Jordan Lyle run for 6 yds to the MIA 21Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+3
1.4%
Jordan Lyle run for 3 yds to the MIA 24Similar
Q3 0:14
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
1.2%
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the MIA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-8
1.2%
Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the MIA 28 Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (Elija Lofton) to the MIA 18Similar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 18
OWN 18
+4
1.1%
Jordan Lyle run for 4 yds to the MIA 22Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 14
OWN 22
-2
1.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 20Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 16
OWN 20
0
1.0%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Keelan MarionSimilar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 16
OWN 20
0
1.0%
Dylan Joyce punt for 44 yds , Squirrel White returns for no gain to the MIA 20 Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (Dylan Day) to the MIA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 47 yds · 2:371% → 8%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
0.9%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 48Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+14
0.8%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Jayvan Boggs for 14 yds to the MIA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
0.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Jayvan BoggsSimilar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
0.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Jaylin LucasSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+10
0.8%
Tommy Castellanos run for 10 yds to the MIA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
0.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the MIA 23Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+12
0.8%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 12 yds to the MIA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
0.7%
Tommy Castellanos run for 3 yds to the MIA 8Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
0.7%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
7.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 8 yds for a TD (M. Danzy Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+1
8.1%
Miami Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jakobe Thomas) to the MIA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0296% → 96%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
4.0%
Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the FSU 41Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+1
3.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the FSU 40Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
3.8%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Keelan MarionSimilar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
3.9%
Dylan Joyce punt for 36 yds, fair catch by BJ Gibson at the FSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
22 plays · 96 yds · 5:065% → 18%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
5.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
5.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+14
5.0%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 14 yds to the FSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
5.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 11 yds to the FSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
5.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 7 yds to the FSU 36Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-5
5.5%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (Gunnar Hansen) to the FSU 31Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
5.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Lawayne McCoySimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+3
5.0%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 3 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 5
OWN 34
+9
4.6%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 9 yds to the FSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
4.8%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 17 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
4.6%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
4.5%
Miami Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the MIA 35Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
5.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Micahi DanzySimilar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
4.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+7
3.5%
Tommy Castellanos run for 7 yds to the MIA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
4.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Micahi DanzySimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
3.7%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Jaylin LucasSimilar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+2
3.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 2 yds to the MIA 26Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+15
3.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 15 yds to the MIA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
3.7%
Tommy Castellanos run for 5 yds to the MIA 6Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
17.7%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 6 yds for a TD (Tommy Castellanos pass to Lawayne McCoy for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 16 yds · 2:0194% → 97%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
6.4%
CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the FSU 35Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
5.2%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Keelan MarionSimilar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+5
5.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Alex Bauman for 5 yds to the FSU 30Similar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+5
5.8%
Florida State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kevin Wynn) to the FSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
5.0%
CharMar Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 27Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 12
OPP 27
0
4.1%
CharMar Brown run for no gain to the FSU 27Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+4
3.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the FSU 23Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 8
OPP 23
0
3.4%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Malachi ToneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22FG
7 plays · 60 yds · 0:473% → 18%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
3.4%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for no gain to the FSU 23Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+18
3.3%
Tommy Castellanos run for 3 yds to the FSU 26 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (Armondo Blount) to the FSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
3.8%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 4 yds to the FSU 45Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+8
3.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 8 yds to the MIA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
4.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+30
4.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 30 yds to the MIA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+35
18.3%
Jake Weinberg 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
4.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:20
Jake Weinberg 35 yd FG GOOD
+14.1
TD · Q4 3:22
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 6 yds for a TD (Tommy Castellanos pass to Lawayne McCoy for Two-Point Conversion)
+14
TD · Q3 9:09
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 40 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
-12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com