YardLine - College football win probability

MIA

Miami 28 at Florida State 22

FSU

2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Doak Campbell Stadium

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Win probability · FSU

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Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump

FSU · Drive 1FG · 13 plays · 70 yds

Q1 15:00

Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

16.8%

0.0

Q1 14:48

Ousmane Kromah run for 7 yds to the FSU 32

18.5%

+1.7

Q1 14:30

Ousmane Kromah run for 1 yd to the FSU 33

18.7%

+0.2

Q1 13:44

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Ousmane Kromah for 28 yds to the MIA 39 for a 1ST down

18.7%

0.0

Q1 13:19

Tommy Castellanos run for 15 yds to the MIA 24 for a 1ST down

20.2%

+1.6

Q1 12:43

Micahi Danzy run for 4 yds to the MIA 20

20.2%

0.0

Q1 12:07

Timeout Florida State, clock 12:07

19.9%

-0.3

Q1 11:48

Gavin Sawchuk run for 5 yds to the MIA 15

19.9%

0.0

Q1 11:34

Gavin Sawchuk run for 6 yds to the MIA 9 for a 1ST down

19.7%

-0.2

Q1 11:12

Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the MIA 6

19.9%

+0.2

Q1 10:48

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce Robinson

19.9%

0.0

Q1 10:35

Tommy Castellanos run for 1 yd to the MIA 5

19.7%

-0.2

Q1 10:02

Jake Weinberg 23 yd FG GOOD

23.0%

+3.3

MIA · Drive 2PUNT · 8 plays · 5 yds

Q1 10:02

Jake Weinberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

22.0%

-1.0

Q1 9:38

Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 3 yds to the MIA 28

20.5%

-1.5

Q1 9:10

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 30

20.6%

+0.1

Q1 8:38

Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 6 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST down

20.2%

-0.4

Q1 8:17

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 38

20.5%

+0.3

Q1 7:37

Carson Beck pass incomplete to Malachi Toney

19.9%

-0.6

Q1 7:32

Carson Beck sacked by Blake Nichelson for a loss of 8 yards to the MIA 30 Miami Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the MIA 30

19.9%

0.0

Q1 7:25

Dylan Joyce punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Squirrel White at the FSU 20

20.5%

+0.6

FSU · Drive 3PUNT · 6 plays · 16 yds

Q1 7:05

Tommy Castellanos run for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 16

22.6%

+2.1

Q1 6:41

Gavin Sawchuk run for 15 yds to the FSU 31 for a 1ST down

22.6%

0.0

Q1 6:24

Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the FSU 32

22.6%

0.0

Q1 6:03

Tommy Castellanos run for 4 yds to the FSU 36

22.6%

0.0

Q1 5:49

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.

22.9%

+0.3

Q1 5:41

Mac Chiumento punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 21

22.5%

-0.5

MIA · Drive 4TD · 9 plays · 79 yds

Q1 5:32

Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 3 yds to the MIA 24

20.5%

-2.0

Q1 4:57

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 10 yds to the MIA 34 for a 1ST down

20.7%

+0.2

Q1 4:40

Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 47 yds to the FSU 19 for a 1ST down

20.7%

0.0

Q1 4:18

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the FSU 14

18.7%

-1.9

Q1 3:19

CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the FSU 10

18.7%

0.0

Q1 2:50

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the FSU 10

18.7%

0.0

Q1 2:06

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the FSU 8 for a 1ST down

19.2%

+0.5

Q1 1:23

Carson Beck pass complete to Alex Bauman for 4 yds to the FSU 4

18.9%

-0.3

Q1 0:50

Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 4 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)

11.0%

-7.9

FSU · Drive 5INT · 14 plays · 34 yds

Q1 0:50

Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

11.8%

+0.8

Q1 0:50

Florida State Penalty, False Start (Luke Petitbon) to the FSU 20

14.9%

+3.2

Q1 0:35

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 2 yds to the FSU 22

15.0%

+0.1

Q1 0:00

Tommy Castellanos run for 2 yds to the FSU 24

15.0%

0.0

Q2 14:46

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 11 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST down

15.0%

0.0

Q2 14:01

Roydell Williams run for no gain to the FSU 35

15.0%

0.0

Q2 13:52

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Jaylin Lucas

15.0%

0.0

Q2 13:52

Miami Penalty, Defensive Offside (Rueben Bain Jr.) to the FSU 40

15.0%

0.0

Q2 13:35

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 17 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST down

15.2%

+0.2

Q2 13:19

Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the MIA 42

16.5%

+1.3

Q2 12:51

Micahi Danzy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 43

16.5%

0.0

Q2 12:18

Tommy Castellanos run for 2 yds to the MIA 41

16.4%

-0.1

Q2 11:45

Timeout Florida State, clock 11:45

16.2%

-0.2

Q2 11:33

Tommy Castellanos pass intercepted Bryce Fitzgerald return for 43 yds to the FSU 44

16.2%

0.0

MIA · Drive 6TD · 1 play · 44 yds

Q2 11:25

Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 44 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)

6.2%

-9.9

FSU · Drive 7PUNT · 11 plays · 31 yds

Q2 11:25

Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

6.6%

+0.4

Q2 11:11

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Ousmane Kromah for 9 yds to the FSU 34

9.0%

+2.4

Q2 10:47

Ousmane Kromah run for 4 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST down

9.1%

+0.1

Q2 10:34

Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (Rueben Bain Jr.) to the MIA 47 for a 1ST down

9.2%

+0.1

Q2 10:15

Ousmane Kromah run for 4 yds to the MIA 43

9.8%

+0.6

Q2 9:44

Tommy Castellanos run for 6 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST down

10.2%

+0.4

Q2 9:31

Florida State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Rizy) to the FSU 48

10.2%

0.0

Q2 9:20

Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

9.4%

-0.8

Q2 8:46

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 2 yds to the MIA 48

9.4%

0.0

Q2 8:04

Tommy Castellanos run for 4 yds to the MIA 44

8.2%

-1.2

Q2 7:37

Mac Chiumento punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Malachi Toney at the MIA 14

8.4%

+0.1

MIA · Drive 8PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds

Q2 7:26

Jordan Lyle run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 13

6.3%

-2.0

Q2 6:42

Carson Beck pass complete to Jordan Lyle for 9 yds to the MIA 22

6.3%

0.0

Q2 6:13

Miami Penalty, False Start (Anez Cooper) to the MIA 17

6.4%

+0.1

Q2 5:44

Carson Beck run for 4 yds to the MIA 21

6.4%

0.0

Q2 5:10

Dylan Joyce punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line

6.4%

-0.1

FSU · Drive 9FUMBLE · 1 play · 4 yds

Q2 4:59

Ousmane Kromah run for 4 yds to the MIA 46 Ousmane Kromah fumbled, forced by Zechariah Poyser, recovered by MIA Keionte Scott

7.8%

+1.4

MIA · Drive 10PUNT · 5 plays · 2 yds

Q2 4:45

Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the MIA 48

6.1%

-1.7

Q2 4:08

Miami Penalty, Illegal Motion (Keelan Marion) to the MIA 43

6.3%

+0.2

Q2 3:43

Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 5 yds to the MIA 48

6.3%

0.0

Q2 3:15

Carson Beck pass incomplete to Tony Johnson

6.3%

0.0

Q2 3:06

Dylan Joyce punt for 42 yds, downed at the FSU 10

6.3%

+0.1

FSU · Drive 11PUNT · 8 plays · 26 yds

Q2 3:00

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 7 yds Duce Robinson fumbled, forced by Jakobe Thomas, recovered by FSU Randy Pittman Jr.

6.9%

+0.6

Q2 2:50

Gavin Sawchuk run for 4 yds to the FSU 21 for a 1ST down

6.9%

0.0

Q2 1:57

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.

6.9%

0.0

Q2 1:53

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 10 yds to the FSU 31 for a 1ST down

6.9%

0.0

Q2 1:35

Tommy Castellanos sacked by Akheem Mesidor for a loss of 8 yards to the FSU 23

6.9%

0.0

Q2 1:09

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 13 yds to the FSU 36

7.0%

+0.1

Q2 0:57

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce Robinson

7.0%

0.0

Q2 0:45

Mac Chiumento punt for 56 yds, downed at the MIA 8

7.0%

0.0

MIA · Drive 12END OF HALF · 1 play · 3 yds

Q2 0:30

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 11

6.4%

-0.5

MIA · Drive 13TD · 12 plays · 75 yds

Q3 15:00

Jake Weinberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

6.9%

+0.5

Q3 14:42

CharMar Brown run for 5 yds to the MIA 30

6.7%

-0.2

Q3 14:20

Carson Beck run for 3 yds to the MIA 33

6.7%

0.0

Q3 13:44

Carson Beck pass complete to Alex Bauman for 8 yds to the MIA 41 for a 1ST down

6.7%

0.0

Q3 13:21

Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 5 yds to the MIA 46

6.5%

-0.2

Q3 12:41

CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

6.5%

0.0

Q3 11:58

CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the FSU 48 for a 1ST down

5.9%

-0.6

Q3 11:31

Miami Penalty, False Start (Markel Bell) to the MIA 47

5.9%

0.0

Q3 11:06

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 46

5.9%

0.0

Q3 10:26

Carson Beck pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 8 yds to the FSU 46

5.9%

0.0

Q3 9:42

Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 6 yds to the FSU 40

5.9%

+0.1

Q3 9:09

Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 40 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)

2.6%

-3.3

FSU · Drive 14INT · 5 plays · 38 yds

Q3 9:09

Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

2.8%

+0.1

Q3 9:09

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Squirrel White

2.9%

+0.2

Q3 8:40

Tommy Castellanos run for 18 yds to the FSU 43 for a 1ST down

2.9%

0.0

Q3 8:22

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 20 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST down

3.0%

+0.1

Q3 7:56

Tommy Castellanos pass intercepted, touchback. Jakobe Thomas return for no gain

3.2%

+0.2

MIA · Drive 15TD · 8 plays · 80 yds

Q3 7:43

Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 5 yds to the MIA 25

2.8%

-0.4

Q3 7:16

Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 11 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST down

2.8%

0.0

Q3 6:18

Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 5 yds to the MIA 41

2.4%

-0.3

Q3 6:00

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

2.4%

-0.1

Q3 5:09

Keelan Marion run for 22 yds to the FSU 28 for a 1ST down

2.4%

0.0

Q3 4:35

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the FSU 24

2.3%

0.0

Q3 4:00

Carson Beck pass incomplete to Tony Johnson

2.4%

0.0

Q3 3:53

Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 24 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)

1.2%

-1.1

FSU · Drive 16PUNT · 6 plays · 12 yds

Q3 3:53

Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

1.2%

0.0

Q3 3:40

Ousmane Kromah run for 3 yds to the FSU 28 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (Wesley Bissainthe) to the FSU 43 for a 1ST down

1.7%

+0.4

Q3 3:20

Jaylin Lucas run for 3 yds to the FSU 46

1.7%

0.0

Q3 2:55

Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the FSU 48

1.7%

0.0

Q3 2:09

Tommy Castellanos sacked by Jakobe Thomas for a loss of 11 yards to the FSU 37

1.6%

0.0

Q3 1:47

Mac Chiumento punt for 48 yds, downed at the MIA 15

1.6%

0.0

MIA · Drive 17PUNT · 8 plays · 5 yds

Q3 1:38

Jordan Lyle run for 6 yds to the MIA 21

1.2%

-0.4

Q3 1:00

Jordan Lyle run for 3 yds to the MIA 24

1.2%

0.0

Q3 0:14

CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the MIA 26 for a 1ST down

1.2%

0.0

Q4 14:54

Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the MIA 28 Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (Elija Lofton) to the MIA 18

1.2%

0.0

Q4 14:10

Jordan Lyle run for 4 yds to the MIA 22

1.1%

-0.1

Q4 13:44

Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 20

1.1%

0.0

Q4 13:07

Carson Beck pass incomplete to Keelan Marion

1.1%

0.0

Q4 13:00

Dylan Joyce punt for 44 yds , Squirrel White returns for no gain to the MIA 20 Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (Dylan Day) to the MIA 47

1.1%

0.0

FSU · Drive 18TD · 12 plays · 47 yds

Q4 12:41

Samuel Singleton Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 48

1.3%

+0.2

Q4 12:10

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Jayvan Boggs for 14 yds to the MIA 34 for a 1ST down

1.3%

0.0

Q4 12:06

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Jayvan Boggs

1.3%

0.0

Q4 12:01

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Jaylin Lucas

1.3%

0.0

Q4 11:45

Tommy Castellanos run for 10 yds to the MIA 24 for a 1ST down

1.3%

0.0

Q4 11:10

Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the MIA 23

1.4%

0.0

Q4 10:51

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 12 yds to the MIA 11 for a 1ST down

1.4%

0.0

Q4 10:41

Timeout Miami, clock 10:41

1.4%

+0.1

Q4 10:30

Tommy Castellanos run for 3 yds to the MIA 8

1.4%

0.0

Q4 10:11

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce Robinson

1.4%

0.0

Q4 10:04

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 8 yds for a TD (M. Danzy Run For Two-point Conversion)

2.1%

+0.7

Q4 10:04

Miami Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jakobe Thomas) to the MIA 2

1.4%

-0.7

MIA · Drive 19PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds

Q4 10:04

Jake Weinberg on-side kick recovered by Miami at the FSU 43

2.0%

+0.6

Q4 9:34

Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the FSU 41

2.2%

+0.2

Q4 9:05

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the FSU 40

2.2%

0.0

Q4 8:38

Carson Beck pass incomplete to Keelan Marion

2.2%

0.0

Q4 8:32

Dylan Joyce punt for 36 yds, fair catch by BJ Gibson at the FSU 4

2.2%

0.0

FSU · Drive 20TD · 22 plays · 96 yds

Q4 8:28

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.

2.0%

-0.2

Q4 8:23

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.

2.0%

0.0

Q4 8:17

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 14 yds to the FSU 18 for a 1ST down

2.0%

0.0

Q4 7:50

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 11 yds to the FSU 29 for a 1ST down

2.0%

0.0

Q4 7:30

Gavin Sawchuk run for 7 yds to the FSU 36

2.0%

0.0

Q4 7:27

Florida State Penalty, False Start (Gunnar Hansen) to the FSU 31

2.0%

0.0

Q4 7:11

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Lawayne McCoy

2.0%

0.0

Q4 6:54

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 3 yds to the FSU 34

2.0%

0.0

Q4 6:18

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 9 yds to the FSU 43 for a 1ST down

2.0%

0.0

Q4 6:00

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 17 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST down

2.0%

0.0

Q4 5:41

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce Robinson

2.1%

0.0

Q4 5:41

Miami Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the MIA 35

2.1%

0.0

Q4 5:34

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Micahi Danzy

2.1%

0.0

Q4 5:29

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.

2.1%

0.0

Q4 5:24

Tommy Castellanos run for 7 yds to the MIA 28 for a 1ST down

2.1%

0.0

Q4 5:07

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Micahi Danzy

2.1%

+0.1

Q4 5:00

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Jaylin Lucas

2.1%

0.0

Q4 4:34

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 2 yds to the MIA 26

2.1%

0.0

Q4 4:11

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 15 yds to the MIA 11 for a 1ST down

2.0%

-0.1

Q4 4:01

Timeout Miami, clock 04:01

2.0%

0.0

Q4 3:53

Tommy Castellanos run for 5 yds to the MIA 6

2.0%

0.0

Q4 3:22

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 6 yds for a TD (Tommy Castellanos pass to Lawayne McCoy for Two-Point Conversion)

3.4%

+1.3

MIA · Drive 21DOWNS · 12 plays · 16 yds

Q4 3:22

Brunno Reus on-side kick recovered by Miami at the FSU 39

3.2%

-0.2

Q4 3:13

CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the FSU 35

3.9%

+0.8

Q4 3:13

Timeout Florida State, clock 03:13

3.5%

-0.5

Q4 3:10

Carson Beck pass incomplete to Keelan Marion

3.5%

0.0

Q4 3:05

Carson Beck pass complete to Alex Bauman for 5 yds to the FSU 30

3.5%

0.0

Q4 3:04

Timeout Florida State, clock 03:04

3.5%

0.0

Q4 3:02

Florida State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kevin Wynn) to the FSU 25 for a 1ST down

3.5%

0.0

Q4 2:33

CharMar Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 27

3.5%

0.0

Q4 2:33

Timeout Florida State, clock 02:33

3.5%

0.0

Q4 2:12

CharMar Brown run for no gain to the FSU 27

3.5%

0.0

Q4 1:47

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the FSU 23

3.3%

-0.1

Q4 1:12

Carson Beck pass incomplete to Malachi Toney

3.3%

0.0

FSU · Drive 22FG · 7 plays · 60 yds

Q4 1:07

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for no gain to the FSU 23

3.1%

-0.3

Q4 1:00

Tommy Castellanos run for 3 yds to the FSU 26 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (Armondo Blount) to the FSU 41 for a 1ST down

3.1%

0.0

Q4 0:53

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 4 yds to the FSU 45

3.1%

0.0

Q4 0:46

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 8 yds to the MIA 47 for a 1ST down

3.1%

0.0

Q4 0:35

Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce Robinson

3.1%

0.0

Q4 0:25

Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 30 yds to the MIA 17 for a 1ST down

3.1%

0.0

Q4 0:20

Jake Weinberg 35 yd FG GOOD

7.5%

+4.4

MIA · Drive 23END OF GAME · 2 plays · -1 yds

Q4 0:20

Brunno Reus on-side kick recovered by Miami at the FSU 42

6.2%

-1.3

Q4 0:01

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 43

3.7%

-2.5

Biggest swings

TD · Q2 11:25

Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 44 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)

-9.9

TD · Q1 0:50

Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 4 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)

-7.9

FG · Q4 0:20

Jake Weinberg 35 yd FG GOOD

+4.4