CLEM
Clemson 38 at North Carolina 10
UNC2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Kenan Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey play
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CLEM · Drive 1TD · 2 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Rece Verhoff kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
10.7%
0.0
Q1 14:49
Antonio Williams pass complete to T.J. Moore for 75 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
5.4%
-5.2
UNC · Drive 2FG · 12 plays · 58 yds
Q1 14:41
Robert Gunn III kickoff for 64 yds , Shanard Clower return for 25 yds to the UNC 26
5.1%
-0.3
Q1 14:41
PENALTY CU Disconcerting Signals (Brown,Sammy) 5 yards from UNC26 to UNC31. NO PLAY.
5.9%
+0.8
Q1 14:37
Max Johnson pass complete to Demon June for 4 yds Demon June fumbled, recovered by UNC
5.9%
0.0
Q1 14:16
Demon June run for 1 yd to the UNC 36 for a 1ST down
5.9%
0.0
Q1 13:27
Max Johnson pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 7 yds to the UNC 43
5.9%
0.0
Q1 12:49
Max Johnson pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 21 yds to the CLEM 36 for a 1ST down
5.8%
-0.1
Q1 12:01
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the CLEM 33
6.3%
+0.5
Q1 11:19
Max Johnson pass complete to Shanard Clower for 8 yds to the CLEM 25 for a 1ST down
6.3%
0.0
Q1 10:43
Benjamin Hall run for 9 yds to the CLEM 16
6.3%
0.0
Q1 10:08
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jordan Shipp
6.3%
0.0
Q1 10:04
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Kobe Paysour
6.2%
-0.1
Q1 10:02
Rece Verhoff 35 yd FG GOOD
8.9%
+2.7
CLEM · Drive 3TD · 4 plays · 75 yds
Q1 10:02
Rece Verhoff kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
8.2%
-0.7
Q1 9:55
Adam Randall run for 4 yds to the CLEM 29
7.0%
-1.2
Q1 9:20
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 36 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST down
7.1%
0.0
Q1 8:54
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 35 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
3.5%
-3.5
UNC · Drive 4PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q1 8:54
Robert Gunn III kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
3.8%
+0.3
Q1 8:44
Max Johnson pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 7 yds to the UNC 32
4.6%
+0.8
Q1 8:14
Demon June run for no gain to the UNC 32
4.8%
+0.2
Q1 7:32
North Carolina Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declined
4.8%
0.0
Q1 7:03
Tom Maginness punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CLEM 43
4.8%
0.0
CLEM · Drive 5TD · 6 plays · 57 yds
Q1 6:51
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Gideon Davidson for 4 yds to the CLEM 39
3.7%
-1.1
Q1 6:15
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tristan Smith for 4 yds to the CLEM 35
3.8%
+0.1
Q1 5:30
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 14 yds to the CLEM 49
4.1%
+0.3
Q1 4:53
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 6 yds to the UNC 45 for a 1ST down
4.0%
-0.1
Q1 4:15
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Christian Bentancur for 45 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
1.2%
-2.8
Q1 4:09
Robert Gunn III kickoff for 65 yds , Shanard Clower return for 14 yds to the UNC 49 North Carolina Penalty, Illegal Block (7 Yards) to the UNC 7
4.2%
+3.0
UNC · Drive 6PUNT · 6 plays · -4 yds
Q1 3:42
Benjamin Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 6
2.0%
-2.2
Q1 3:21
Timeout North Carolina, clock 03:21
2.0%
0.0
Q1 3:19
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Benjamin Hall
2.0%
0.0
Q1 3:17
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Benjamin Hall
2.0%
0.0
Q1 3:08
(03:15) Maginness,Tom punt 57 yards to the CU 37 Wesco Jr.,Bryant return 4 yards to the CU 41 (Smith III,Gregory) PENALTY UNC Illegal Formation 3 yards from UNC06 to UNC03. NO PLAY.
2.0%
0.0
Q1 2:55
Tom Maginness punt for 60 yds , Bryant Wesco Jr. returns for 17 yds to the UNC 46
2.0%
0.0
CLEM · Drive 7TD · 7 plays · 46 yds
Q1 2:45
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 7 yds to the UNC 39
1.1%
-0.9
Q1 2:14
Cade Klubnik run for 4 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST down
1.1%
0.0
Q1 1:37
Cade Klubnik pass incomplete to Bryant Wesco Jr.
1.1%
0.0
Q1 1:30
Adam Randall run for 6 yds to the UNC 29
1.1%
0.0
Q1 1:06
Adam Randall run for 3 yds to the UNC 26
1.1%
0.0
Q1 0:20
Peter Woods run for 3 yds to the UNC 23 for a 1ST down
1.1%
0.0
Q1 0:01
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 23 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
0.8%
-0.3
UNC · Drive 8PUNT · 5 plays · -3 yds
Q1 0:00
Robert Gunn III kickoff for 65 yds , Shanard Clower return for 24 yds to the UNC 24
0.8%
0.0
Q2 14:48
Max Johnson pass complete to Demon June for no gain to the UNC 24
0.8%
0.0
Q2 14:09
Max Johnson pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 2 yds to the UNC 22
0.8%
0.0
Q2 13:26
Max Johnson pass complete to Demon June for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 21
0.8%
0.0
Q2 12:50
Tom Maginness punt for 38 yds
0.8%
0.0
CLEM · Drive 9PUNT · 12 plays · 23 yds
Q2 12:37
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tristan Smith for 19 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST down
0.8%
0.0
Q2 12:05
Gideon Davidson run for 4 yds to the UNC 36
0.8%
0.0
Q2 11:29
Gideon Davidson run for 3 yds to the UNC 33
0.7%
-0.1
Q2 10:46
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 7 yds to the UNC 26 for a 1ST down
0.6%
-0.1
Q2 10:08
(10:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Klubnik,Cade pass complete deep left to Wesco Jr.,Bryant caught at UNC00, for 26 yards to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 10:08 PENALTY CU Ineligible Downfield on Pass declined CU Holding declined CU Pass Interference (Wesco Jr.,Bryant) 15 yards from UNC26 to UNC41. NO PLAY.
0.6%
0.0
Q2 10:02
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 3 yds to the UNC 38 Clemson Penalty, Offensive Holding (Christian Bentancur) to the UNC 48
0.6%
0.0
Q2 9:37
Clemson Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CLEM 44
0.6%
0.0
Q2 9:09
Gideon Davidson run for 1 yd to the CLEM 45
0.6%
0.0
Q2 8:23
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 9 yds to the UNC 46
0.6%
0.0
Q2 7:37
Gideon Davidson run for 10 yds to the UNC 36
0.6%
0.0
Q2 7:07
Timeout North Carolina, clock 07:07
0.6%
0.0
Q2 6:59
Nolan Hauser punt for 27 yds
0.6%
0.0
UNC · Drive 10PUNT · 4 plays · -3 yds
Q2 6:50
Max Johnson sacked by Stephiylan Green for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 2
0.8%
+0.2
Q2 6:08
Max Johnson run for 4 yds to the UNC 6
0.9%
+0.2
Q2 5:25
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Benjamin Hall
0.9%
0.0
Q2 5:18
Tom Maginness punt for 31 yds
0.9%
0.0
CLEM · Drive 11TD · 6 plays · 37 yds
Q2 5:05
Cade Klubnik pass complete to David Eziomume for 4 yds to the UNC 33
0.5%
-0.4
Q2 4:41
Cade Klubnik run for 7 yds to the UNC 26 for a 1ST down
0.5%
0.0
Q2 3:56
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Ian Schieffelin for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 27
0.5%
0.0
Q2 3:25
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 16 yds to the UNC 11 for a 1ST down
0.5%
0.0
Q2 2:40
David Eziomume run for 3 yds to the UNC 8
0.5%
0.0
Q2 2:02
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Christian Bentancur for 8 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
0.3%
-0.2
UNC · Drive 12PUNT · 9 plays · 13 yds
Q2 2:02
Robert Gunn III kickoff for 48 yds
0.3%
0.0
Q2 1:56
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 8 yds to the UNC 33
0.7%
+0.3
Q2 1:52
Max Johnson run for 4 yds to the UNC 37 for a 1ST down
0.7%
0.0
Q2 1:52
Timeout Clemson, clock 01:52
0.7%
0.0
Q2 1:47
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Kobe Paysour
0.7%
0.0
Q2 1:41
Max Johnson run for 1 yd to the UNC 38
0.7%
0.0
Q2 1:41
Timeout Clemson, clock 01:41
0.7%
0.0
Q2 1:35
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Javarius Green
0.7%
0.0
Q2 1:28
Tom Maginness punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Bryant Wesco Jr. at the CLEM 20
0.7%
0.0
CLEM · Drive 13PUNT · 6 plays · 19 yds
Q2 1:15
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Josh Sapp for 9 yds to the CLEM 29
0.3%
-0.4
Q2 1:03
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 3 yds to the CLEM 32 for a 1ST down
0.3%
0.0
Q2 0:47
Cade Klubnik sacked by CJ Mims for a loss of 7 yards to the CLEM 25
0.3%
0.0
Q2 0:47
Timeout Clemson, clock 00:47
0.3%
0.0
Q2 0:36
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tristan Smith for 14 yds to the CLEM 39
0.3%
0.0
Q2 0:31
Jack Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 18
0.3%
0.0
UNC · Drive 14END OF HALF · 2 plays · 14 yds
Q2 0:24
Max Johnson pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 8 yds to the UNC 26
0.6%
+0.3
Q2 0:00
Max Johnson pass complete to Davion Gause for 6 yds to the UNC 32 for a 1ST down
0.6%
0.0
UNC · Drive 15MISSED FG · 17 plays · 43 yds
Q3 15:00
Robert Gunn III kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.3%
-0.3
Q3 14:47
Max Johnson pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 10 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST down
0.6%
+0.3
Q3 14:09
Max Johnson pass complete to Javarius Green for 6 yds to the UNC 41
0.6%
0.0
Q3 13:30
(13:36) Shotgun June,Demon rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNC44 (Brown,Sammy) PENALTY UNC Holding (Moore,Jakai) 10 yards from UNC41 to UNC31. NO PLAY.
0.6%
0.0
Q3 12:59
Max Johnson pass complete to Javarius Green for 16 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST down
0.6%
0.0
Q3 12:26
Demon June run for 1 yd to the UNC 48
0.6%
0.0
Q3 11:48
Max Johnson pass complete to Shanard Clower for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
0.6%
0.0
Q3 11:10
Max Johnson run for 8 yds to the CLEM 42 for a 1ST down
0.6%
0.0
Q3 10:32
Clemson Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the 50 yard line
0.6%
0.0
Q3 10:04
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jake Johnson
0.6%
0.0
Q3 9:51
Max Johnson pass complete to Benjamin Hall for 14 yds to the CLEM 36
0.6%
0.0
Q3 9:12
(09:20) Shotgun Johnson,Max pass complete short left to Shipp,Jordan caught at CU 41, for 2 yards to the CU 34 (Strozier,Branden) PENALTY UNC Holding (Green,Javarius) 10 yards from CU 36 to CU 46. NO PLAY.
0.6%
0.0
Q3 8:47
PENALTY CU Personal Foul (Strozier,Branden) 15 yards from CU 46 to CU 31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.6%
0.0
Q3 8:47
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Benjamin Hall
0.6%
0.0
Q3 8:41
Demon June run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLEM 32
0.6%
0.0
Q3 8:01
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Kobe Paysour
0.6%
0.0
Q3 7:57
Rece Verhoff 50 yd FG MISSED
0.6%
0.0
CLEM · Drive 16PUNT · 4 plays · -3 yds
Q3 7:50
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 3 yds to the CLEM 35
0.3%
-0.3
Q3 7:19
Adam Randall run for 2 yds to the CLEM 37
0.3%
0.0
Q3 6:43
Cade Klubnik sacked by Andrew Simpson for a loss of 8 yards to the CLEM 29
0.3%
0.0
Q3 6:01
Jack Smith punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 23
0.3%
0.0
UNC · Drive 17DOWNS · 8 plays · 40 yds
Q3 5:51
Max Johnson pass complete to Demon June for 4 yds to the UNC 28
0.5%
+0.3
Q3 5:16
(05:19) Shotgun Johnson,Max pass incomplete short left thrown to UNC31 QB hurried by Green,Stephiylan and McCloud,Kobe PENALTY CU Roughing The Passer (Green,Stephiylan) 15 yards from UNC28 to UNC43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.5%
0.0
Q3 5:10
Demon June run for 15 yds to the CLEM 42 for a 1ST down
0.5%
0.0
Q3 4:29
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Benjamin Hall
0.4%
-0.1
Q3 4:21
Nathan Leacock run for 6 yds to the CLEM 36
0.4%
0.0
Q3 3:46
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Chris Culliver
0.4%
0.0
Q3 3:40
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Kobe Paysour
0.4%
0.0
Q3 3:40
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Kobe Paysour
0.4%
0.0
CLEM · Drive 18FG · 17 plays · 55 yds
Q3 3:36
Adam Randall run for 1 yd to the CLEM 37
0.3%
-0.2
Q3 2:56
Christopher Vizzina run for 2 yds to the CLEM 39
0.3%
0.0
Q3 2:21
Timeout Clemson, clock 02:21
0.3%
0.0
Q3 2:10
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Vizzina,Christopher pass intercepted by Gibson,Gavin at UNC33 QB hurried by Simpson,Andrew Gibson,Gavin return 18 yards to the CU 49 (Sadler,Collin) PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Allen,Marcus) 15 yards from CU 39 to UNC46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.3%
0.0
Q3 1:56
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Antonio Williams for no gain to the UNC 46
0.3%
0.0
Q3 1:21
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Antonio Williams for 15 yds to the UNC 31 for a 1ST down
0.3%
0.0
Q3 1:02
Adam Randall run for 9 yds to the UNC 22
0.3%
0.0
Q3 0:45
Christopher Vizzina pass incomplete to Josh Sapp
0.3%
0.0
Q3 0:40
Adam Randall run for 2 yds to the UNC 20 for a 1ST down
0.3%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Adam Randall for 8 yds to the UNC 12
0.3%
0.0
Q4 14:55
Christopher Vizzina pass incomplete to Tristan Smith
0.3%
0.0
Q4 14:55
Timeout Clemson, clock 14:55
0.3%
0.0
Q4 14:49
Adam Randall run for 3 yds to the UNC 9 for a 1ST down
0.2%
0.0
Q4 14:09
Christopher Vizzina pass incomplete to Ian Schieffelin
0.2%
0.0
Q4 14:03
Christopher Vizzina run for no gain to the UNC 9
0.2%
0.0
Q4 13:21
Christopher Vizzina pass incomplete to Antonio Williams
0.2%
0.0
Q4 13:20
Nolan Hauser 27 yd FG GOOD
0.2%
0.0
UNC · Drive 19TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q4 13:20
Robert Gunn III kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.2%
0.0
Q4 13:13
Max Johnson pass complete to Shanard Clower for 11 yds to the UNC 36 for a 1ST down
0.3%
+0.1
Q4 12:48
(12:52) Shotgun Johnson,Max pass incomplete deep left to Green,Javarius thrown to CU 35 PENALTY CU Pass Interference (Lukus,Jeadyn) 15 yards from UNC36 to CU 49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.3%
0.0
Q4 12:35
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 6 yds to the CLEM 43
0.3%
0.0
Q4 12:05
Max Johnson pass complete to Nathan Leacock for 18 yds to the CLEM 25 for a 1ST down
0.3%
0.0
Q4 11:34
PENALTY UNC False Start (Leacock,Nathan) 5 yards from CU 25 to CU 30. NO PLAY.
0.3%
0.0
Q4 10:58
Max Johnson pass complete to Jordan Owens for 19 yds to the CLEM 11 for a 1ST down
0.3%
0.0
Q4 10:25
Benjamin Hall run for 11 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
0.3%
0.0
CLEM · Drive 20DOWNS · 11 plays · 38 yds
Q4 10:19
Rece Verhoff kickoff for 55 yds , Tyler Brown return for 22 yds to the CLEM 32
0.3%
0.0
Q4 10:12
Gideon Davidson run for 4 yds to the CLEM 36
0.2%
-0.1
Q4 9:40
Gideon Davidson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLEM 35
0.2%
0.0
Q4 9:00
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Vizzina,Christopher pass incomplete deep left to Brown,Tyler thrown to UNC39 PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Miller,Tre) 15 yards from CU 35 to CU 50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.2%
0.0
Q4 8:48
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Tyler Brown for 5 yds to the UNC 45
0.2%
0.0
Q4 8:10
Gideon Davidson run for 4 yds to the UNC 41
0.2%
0.0
Q4 7:31
David Eziomume run for 2 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST down
0.2%
0.0
Q4 6:57
Cole Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 41
0.2%
0.0
Q4 6:19
Christopher Vizzina pass incomplete to Cole Turner
0.3%
0.0
Q4 6:10
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Cole Turner for 7 yds to the UNC 34
0.3%
0.0
Q4 5:35
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Tyler Brown for 4 yds to the UNC 30
0.3%
0.0
UNC · Drive 21PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q4 5:30
Max Johnson pass complete to Shanard Clower for 3 yds to the UNC 33
0.3%
+0.1
Q4 4:52
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Shanard Clower
0.3%
0.0
Q4 4:47
North Carolina Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declined
0.3%
0.0
Q4 4:37
Tom Maginness punt for 44 yds , Chase Byrd returns for 10 yds to the CLEM 33
0.3%
0.0
Q4 4:37
Tom Maginness punt for 44 yds , Chase Byrd returns for 10 yds to the CLEM 33
0.3%
0.0
CLEM · Drive 22FUMBLE · 9 plays · 61 yds
Q4 4:29
Keith Adams Jr. run for 9 yds to the CLEM 42
0.2%
-0.1
Q4 4:04
Keith Adams Jr. run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
0.2%
0.0
Q4 3:22
Trent Pearman run for 4 yds to the UNC 46
0.2%
0.0
Q4 2:52
David Eziomume run for 9 yds to the UNC 37 for a 1ST down
0.2%
0.0
Q4 2:08
Trent Pearman pass incomplete
0.2%
0.0
Q4 2:02
Keith Adams Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNC 34
0.2%
0.0
Q4 1:53
Trent Pearman pass incomplete to Chase Byrd
0.2%
0.0
Q4 1:47
Trent Pearman pass complete to Clark Sanderson for 31 yds to the UNC 3 for a 1ST down
0.2%
0.0
Q4 1:23
Trent Pearman run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNC 6 Trent Pearman fumbled, recovered by UNC Nicco Maggio
0.2%
0.0
UNC · Drive 23END OF GAME · 8 plays · 41 yds
Q4 1:14
Jaylen McGill run for 3 yds to the UNC 9
0.3%
+0.1
Q4 0:34
Max Johnson pass complete to Connor Cox for 7 yds to the UNC 16 for a 1ST down
0.3%
0.0
Q4 0:15
Max Johnson pass complete to Connor Cox for 4 yds to the UNC 20
0.3%
0.0
Q4 0:15
Timeout North Carolina, clock 00:15
0.3%
0.0
Q4 0:10
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Shanard Clower
0.3%
0.0
Q4 0:01
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaylen McGill for 11 yds to the UNC 31 for a 1ST down
0.3%
0.0
Q4 0:01
Timeout North Carolina, clock 00:01
0.3%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 16 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST down
0.3%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 14:49
Antonio Williams pass complete to T.J. Moore for 75 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q1 8:54
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 35 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
-3.5
KEY PLAY · Q1 4:09
Robert Gunn III kickoff for 65 yds , Shanard Clower return for 14 yds to the UNC 49 North Carolina Penalty, Illegal Block (7 Yards) to the UNC 7
+3