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DUKE

Duke 45 at California 21

CAL
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:40 · Michael Kern punt for 60 yds, downed at the DUKE 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense−14.7Pregame prior−3.4Score differential−6.7Garbage-time factor−6.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:17: Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK) — CAL win probability +6.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:47: Anderson Castle run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +6.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:50: Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 26 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +11.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:10: Anderson Castle run for 1 yd for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +10.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:22: Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 10 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +7.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:27DUKE 4th & 19 at DUKE 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  2. Q2 3:39CAL 4th & 22 at CAL 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−3.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:47CAL 4th & 25 at CAL 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−4.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:21DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  5. Q3 8:31DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:52CAL 4th & 16 at CAL 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:56DUKE 4th & 16 at DUKE 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−3.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:40CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:44DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:21CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:07DUKE 4th & 8 at CAL 26, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:11CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:20CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:38DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:17CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:47DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:50DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:10DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:22DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:50DUKE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4438% → 42%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
37.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 24Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
37.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 12 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
38.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 2 yds to the CAL 38Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
38.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 6 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
38.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 3 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+24
38.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 24 yds to the DUKE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
39.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 30Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 11
OPP 30
-5
39.5%
California Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 35Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 16
OPP 35
+19
39.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 19 yds to the DUKE 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
39.8%
Duke Penalty, Defensive Offside (Semaj Turner) to the DUKE 11Similar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 5
OPP 11
+6
40.0%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the DUKE 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
40.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 6Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
42.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 6 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+15
42.1%
Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:3358% → 56%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-7
41.9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 3 yds to the DUKE 27 Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the DUKE 17Similar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 17
OWN 17
0
42.3%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper BarkateSimilar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 17
OWN 17
+5
42.4%
Nate Sheppard run for 5 yds to the DUKE 22Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 12
OWN 22
-7
43.0%
Darian Mensah sacked by Jayden Wayne for a loss of 7 yards to the DUKE 15Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 19
OWN 15
+17
43.7%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 57 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 17 yds to the CAL 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:0044% → 51%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+29
43.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 29 yds to the DUKE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
44.8%
California Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Spasojevic-Moko) to the DUKE 36Similar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 20
OPP 36
0
44.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 20
OPP 36
+29
44.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 22 yds to the DUKE 14 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (Bradley Gompers) to the DUKE 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
45.3%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the DUKE 5Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
50.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:2752% → 56%
Q1 5:05
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+15
48.4%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 15 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
48.7%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 8 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
48.9%
Nate Sheppard run for 8 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
48.6%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Andrel AnthonySimilar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+16
49.0%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jake Taylor for 16 yds to the CAL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
49.4%
Nate Sheppard run for no gain to the CAL 30Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+18
50.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 18 yds to the CAL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
44.2%
Nate Sheppard run for 12 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:1347% → 59%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
46.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
47.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 6 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
47.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jaiven PlummerSimilar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
47.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+10
48.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 10 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
49.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+30
50.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 30 yds to the DUKE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
51.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+11
51.1%
Sagapolutele, Jaron-Keawe pass incomplete to Grizzell, Trond, PENALTY DUKE pass interference (Robinson, Kimari) 11 yards to the DUKE11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CAL.Similar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
51.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 1 yd to the DUKE 10Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+6
51.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the DUKE 4Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
58.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:1845% → 49%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
55.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 40Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+1
56.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Anderson Castle for 1 yd to the DUKE 41Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+15
57.2%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 15 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
55.5%
Anderson Castle run for 8 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+7
55.3%
Anderson Castle run for 7 yds to the CAL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
55.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 15 yds to the CAL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
55.8%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the CAL 13Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+6
56.3%
Mensah, Darian pass incomplete to King, Landen, PENALTY CAL pass interference 6 yards to the CAL7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q2 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
56.4%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the CAL 6Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
57.3%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the CAL 2Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.8%
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7INT
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:3955% → 58%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
54.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 29 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-44
57.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass intercepted Andrew Pellicciotta return for 34 yds to the DUKE 12 Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Landan Callahan) to the DUKE 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:0047% → 61%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+33
53.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Landen King for 33 yds to the CAL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
50.2%
Nate Sheppard run for 3 yds to the CAL 26Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+26
39.2%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 26 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 2:0646% → 45%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
46.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 23Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
46.1%
Duke Penalty, Defensive Offside (Wesley Williams) to the CAL 28Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-8
46.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Elliott Schaper and Wesley Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the CAL 20Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-7
45.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Vincent Anthony Jr. and Elliott Schaper for a loss of 7 yards to the CAL 13Similar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
44.6%
Michael Kern punt for 25 yds, downed at the CAL 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:2060% → 72%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
40.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 11 yds to the CAL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
39.4%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper BarkateSimilar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
39.8%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the CAL 26Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+23
40.2%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 23 yds to the CAL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
38.5%
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the CAL 1Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.8%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:1933% → 32%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason MiniSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
32.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Kendrick RaphaelSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-15
31.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Elliott Schaper for a loss of 15 yards to the CAL 10Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
31.5%
Michael Kern punt for 51 yds, downed at the DUKE 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12END OF HALF
10 plays · 53 yds · 0:4070% → 75%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
30.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Nate Sheppard for 6 yds to the DUKE 45Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+15
29.4%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 15 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
28.5%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 22 yds to the CAL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
27.5%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper BarkateSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
27.4%
Nate Sheppard run for 5 yds to the CAL 13Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+5
28.6%
California Penalty, Defensive Offside (Brent Austin) to the CAL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
25.0%
Todd Pelino 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2971% → 70%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
29.0%
Nate Sheppard run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 34Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+3
29.2%
Nate Sheppard run for 3 yds to the DUKE 37Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
28.7%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Que'Sean BrownSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 8
OWN 37
-2
29.9%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 46 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 35 California Penalty, False Start (7 Yards) to the CAL 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14INT
7 plays · 38 yds · 3:0928% → 28%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
27.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the CAL 12Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+8
27.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 8 yds to the CAL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
27.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 19Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
27.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+28
26.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 28 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
29.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 46Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
28.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass intercepted Chandler Rivers return for no gain to the DUKE 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3174% → 72%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
26.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for no gain to the DUKE 41Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
26.3%
Nate Sheppard run for 2 yds to the DUKE 43Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
26.2%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
27.6%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the CAL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:3326% → 24%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
26.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 17Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 8
OWN 17
-5
26.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Aaron Hall for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 12Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 13
OWN 12
-3
24.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Wesley Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 9Similar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 16
OWN 9
+3
23.9%
Michael Kern punt for 44 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:5176% → 75%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
50
+1
24.5%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the CAL 49Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
23.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 4 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-11
23.4%
Darian Mensah sacked by Luke Ferrelli for a loss of 11 yards to the DUKE 44Similar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
24.7%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:1024% → 22%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
23.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the CAL 25Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
24.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
23.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 4 yds to the CAL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
23.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the CAL 32Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-10
23.1%
Sagapolutele, Jaron-Keawe pass complete to Raphael, Kendrick for 7 yards to the CAL39, PENALTY CAL holding (Bell, Leon) 10 yards to the CAL22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 19
OWN 22
0
22.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to LJ Johnson Jr.Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 19
OWN 22
+14
21.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 14 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
21.5%
Michael Kern punt for 60 yds, downed at the DUKE 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:5177% → 77%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
23.2%
Nate Sheppard run for 3 yds to the DUKE 7Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+8
23.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 8 yds to the DUKE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
22.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 11 yds to the DUKE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
22.0%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 15 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
20.8%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Jake TaylorSimilar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
21.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 3 yds to the DUKE 44Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
20.6%
Darian Mensah pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+7
22.6%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 47 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 7 yds to the CAL 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1721% → 18%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
20.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for no gain to the CAL 16Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
20.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+6
18.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 6 yds to the CAL 22Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 4
OWN 22
+4
17.6%
Michael Kern punt for 37 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 4 yds to the DUKE 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 3:5383% → 95%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
17.4%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the DUKE 46Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+8
17.1%
Jaquez Moore run for 8 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
15.3%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the CAL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+32
13.3%
Jaquez Moore run for 32 yds to the CAL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
12.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the CAL 10Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
4.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 10 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:305% → 6%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
5.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Vincent Anthony Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 22Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+13
5.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 13 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
5.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 13 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
5.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass intercepted Elliott Schaper return for 5 yds to the DUKE 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
2 plays · 51 yds · 0:5096% → 99%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
4.3%
Nate Sheppard run for 5 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+46
1.0%
Nate Sheppard run for 46 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:011% → 1%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
1.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the CAL 25Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-4
1.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 21Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
1.0%
Devin Brown pass intercepted Moussa Kane return for no gain to the CAL 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25END OF GAME
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:5899% → 100%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
0.9%
Travis Bates run for 1 yd to the CAL 37Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+9
0.8%
Travis Bates run for 9 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
0.7%
Travis Bates run for 1 yd to the CAL 27Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+2
0.5%
Travis Bates run for 2 yds to the CAL 25Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-1
0.5%
Henry Belin IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 26Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+11
0.6%
Henry Belin IV run for 11 yds to the CAL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:50
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 26 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-11
TD · Q2 1:10
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q4 8:22
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 10 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com