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BC

Boston College 7 at Pittsburgh 48

PITT
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:42 · Shamus Florio punt for 41 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for no gain to the PITT 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Home team on offense+10.6Score differential+3.6Pregame prior+10.5Blowout margin+0.7Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:22: Mason Heintschel pass complete to Justin Holmes for 14 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK) — PITT win probability +2.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 0:39: Trey Butkowski 31 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +0.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:25: Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 12 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK) — PITT win probability +9.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:56: Juelz Goff run for 3 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK) — PITT win probability +5.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:10: Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 6 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK) — PITT win probability +4.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:52BC 4th & 1 at BC 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:04BC 4th & 6 at PITT 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:49PITT 4th & 11 at BC 38, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    70.5%
    38% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:39PITT 4th & 6 at BC 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:24PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:16BC 4th & 22 at BC 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:25PITT 4th & 1 at BC 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.1%−1.5
    86% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−6.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:42BC 4th & 12 at BC 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−2.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:23PITT 4th & 2 at BC 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    83.9%−2.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:11BC 4th & 3 at BC 23, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:59PITT 4th & 21 at PITT 14, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:25BC 4th & 12 at BC 44, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:28PITT 4th & 11 at BC 29, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:14BC 4th & 14 at BC 8, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:58PITT 4th & 4 at BC 44, up 48
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:22PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:25PITT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:56PITT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:10PITT Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:08PITT Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:39PITT Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:57BC Touchdown, down 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5532% → 33%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.7%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 3 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
67.7%
Turbo Richard run for 1 yd to the BC 23Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
67.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 11 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
67.5%
Shamus Florio punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITT 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 5:2568% → 70%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
67.5%
Juelz Goff run for no gain to the PITT 24Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
67.4%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Justin Holmes for 4 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+7
67.2%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 7 yds to the PITT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
67.4%
Juelz Goff run for 3 yds to the PITT 38Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
67.5%
Mason Heintschel run for 3 yds to the PITT 41Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
67.4%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 4 yds to the PITT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
67.6%
Juelz Goff run for 1 yd to the PITT 46Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+15
67.5%
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Heintschel,Mason pass incomplete short right to Hicks,Cataurus thrown to BC40 PENALTY BC Pass Interference (Cunningham,Ashton) 15 yards from Pgh46 to BC39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
67.7%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for no gain to the BC 39Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+13
67.5%
Mason Heintschel run for 13 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
67.7%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 12 yds to the BC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
70.1%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Justin Holmes for 14 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:1431% → 30%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.3%
Turbo Richard run for no gain to the BC 25Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed HarrisSimilar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+24
69.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 24 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
68.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 5 yds to the PITT 46Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-1
68.8%
Turbo Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 47Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
69.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 6
OPP 47
+2
69.6%
Dylan Lonergan run for 2 yds to the PITT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 4:1671% → 71%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
70.6%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 3 yds to the PITT 48Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+15
70.8%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 15 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
71.0%
(04:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Heintschel,Mason pass complete deep left to Hicks,Cataurus caught at BC00, for 37 yards to the BC00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 04:04 PENALTY Pgh Holding (Holmes,Justin) 10 yards from BC37 to BC47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 20
OPP 47
-15
70.6%
Pittsburgh Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the PITT 38Similar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 35
OWN 38
+13
70.5%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Juelz Goff for 13 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 22
OPP 49
+2
70.7%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Jake Overman for 2 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 20
OPP 47
+9
70.4%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 9 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 11
OPP 38
+21
69.8%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 21 yds to the BC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
71.5%
Juelz Goff run for 4 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
71.7%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Zion Fowler-ElSimilar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
71.3%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Deuce SpannSimilar
Q1 0:39
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
71.4%
Trey Butkowski 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 45 yds · 1:3229% → 28%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.2%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Bo MacCormack III for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
71.8%
PENALTY Pgh Offside (Neal,Isaiah) 5 yards from BC27 to BC32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
71.3%
PENALTY Pgh Offside (Biles,Rasheem) 5 yards from BC32 to BC37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
71.0%
Bo MacCormack III run for 1 yd to the BC 38Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
71.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed HarrisSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+32
71.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 32 yds Jeremiah Franklin fumbled, recovered by BC Kyle LouisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1172% → 72%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
72.1%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 15 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
72.9%
Mason Heintschel run for no gain to the PITT 46Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
72.8%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 5 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
72.6%
Mason Heintschel run for no gain to the BC 49Similar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 5
OPP 49
-5
72.1%
(11:50) PENALTY Pgh False Start (Guerrier,Josh) 5 yards from BC49 to Pgh46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:24
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+9
71.5%
Caleb Junko punt for 41 yds , Cameron Martinez returns for 9 yds to the BC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:0228% → 26%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
72.2%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-12
72.4%
Dylan Lonergan sacked by Jahsear Whittington for a loss of 12 yards to the BC 10Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 22
OWN 10
0
73.7%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Dawson PoughSimilar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 22
OWN 10
0
74.1%
Shamus Florio punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITT 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:4173% → 83%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
73.2%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 19 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
74.2%
Pittsburgh Penalty, (-10 Yards) to the PITT 48Similar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+15
73.7%
Boston College Penalty, (15 Yards) to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
74.6%
Juelz Goff run for 1 yd to the BC 33Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-10
74.7%
(08:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Heintschel,Mason pass incomplete deep right to Johnson,Kenny thrown to BC00 PENALTY Pgh Holding (Baer,Ryan) 10 yards from BC33 to BC43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 19
OPP 43
+7
73.2%
Juelz Goff run for 7 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+15
73.0%
(07:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Heintschel,Mason pass incomplete deep left to Hicks,Cataurus thrown to BC00 PENALTY BC Pass Interference (Farris,Isaiah) 15 yards from BC36 to BC21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
74.3%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
74.4%
Juelz Goff run for no gain to the BC 21Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+9
73.8%
Mason Heintschel run for 9 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+12
83.3%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 12 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:3218% → 17%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.0%
Bo MacCormack III run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
81.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jeremiah FranklinSimilar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
82.3%
PENALTY BC False Start (Bowry,Jude) 5 yards from BC28 to BC23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
82.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Semaj FlemingSimilar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
82.8%
Shamus Florio punt for 41 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for no gain to the PITT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 3:3984% → 94%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
84.1%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 7 yds to the PITT 42Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
84.8%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 1 yd to the PITT 43Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
84.7%
Juelz Goff run for 5 yds to the PITT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
85.6%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 8 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
85.8%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
85.3%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+7
84.8%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 7 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
86.1%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Cataurus HicksSimilar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
85.9%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 9 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
86.8%
Juelz Goff run for 3 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+22
87.9%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Justin Holmes for 22 yds Justin Holmes fumbled, recovered by PITT for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.5%
Juelz Goff run for 3 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:369% → 8%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
91.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 3 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+4
91.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Dawson Pough for 4 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 3
OWN 23
0
91.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed HarrisSimilar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
91.7%
Shamus Florio punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 0:5694% → 98%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
94.0%
Mason Heintschel run for 4 yds to the PITT 42Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+11
94.1%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 11 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
94.3%
Juelz Goff run for 16 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
94.4%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Deuce SpannSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+25
94.3%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Ja'Kyrian Turner for 25 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.7%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 6 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
98.2%
D. Lonergan takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:5598% → 98%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q3 14:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-11
98.0%
Mason Heintschel sacked by Favor Bate for a loss of 11 yards to the PITT 14Similar
Q3 13:59
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
98.1%
Caleb Junko punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:242% → 1%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
98.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jordan McDonald for 11 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
98.6%
Jordan McDonald run for 9 yds to the PITT 49Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+1
98.6%
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd to the PITT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
98.7%
Dylan Lonergan sacked by Rasheem Biles for a loss of 10 yards to the BC 39 Dylan Lonergan fumbled, recovered by BC Jimmy Scott , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 3:0699% → 99%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
98.7%
Juelz Goff run for 2 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+8
98.8%
Mason Heintschel run for 8 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
98.9%
Juelz Goff run for 1 yd to the BC 28Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+3
98.9%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 3 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+15
99.2%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 15 yds to the BC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.2%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Juelz GoffSimilar
Q3 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.3%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Deuce Spann for 10 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17INT
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:461% → 1%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.3%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Luke McLaughlinSimilar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
99.3%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Luke McLaughlinSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+21
99.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Luke McLaughlin for 21 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
99.3%
Jordan McDonald run for 10 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
99.2%
Jordan McDonald run for 3 yds to the PITT 43Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
99.5%
Grayson James pass intercepted Shadarian Harrison return for no gain to the PITT 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 5:2599% → 100%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.4%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 2 yds to the PITT 41Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
99.5%
Mason Heintschel run for 5 yds to the PITT 46Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+15
99.5%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Juelz Goff for 15 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
99.5%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Jake Overman for 9 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+3
99.6%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 3 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
99.6%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Zion Fowler-El for 2 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+7
99.6%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Ja'Kyrian Turner for 7 yds to the BC 18Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+3
99.6%
Juelz Goff run for 3 yds to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
99.7%
Mason Heintschel sacked by Sedarius McConnell for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 18Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+18
99.7%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Zion Fowler-El for 18 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:080% → 0%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.8%
Jordan McDonald run for 8 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
99.8%
Turbo Richard run for 3 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
99.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 9 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+1
99.8%
Turbo Richard run for 1 yd to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
99.8%
Turbo Richard run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 44Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Reed HarrisSimilar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Sedarius McConnellSimilar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Shamus Florio punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITT 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:50100% → 100%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.8%
Juelz Goff run for 2 yds to the PITT 26Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+16
99.8%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Bryce Yates for 16 yds to the PITT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
99.8%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Bryce Yates for 6 yds to the PITT 48Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
99.8%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Deuce Spann for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 2
50
+3
99.9%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Josh Altsman for 3 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
99.9%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 19 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
99.9%
(10:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Heintschel,Mason pass complete short right to Spann,Deuce caught at BC30, for 11 yards to the BC17 (Davis,Carter), out of bounds PENALTY Pgh Holding (Yates,Bryce) 10 yards from BC28 to BC38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 20
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Mason Heintschel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 20
OPP 38
+5
99.9%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 5 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 15
OPP 33
+4
99.9%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+47
99.9%
Trey Butkowski 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
99.9%
Bo MacCormack III run for 3 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Bo MacCormack IIISimilar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Kaelan ChudzinskiSimilar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 7
OWN 15
-7
99.9%
(07:29) Quinn,Andy punt 41 yards to the Pgh44 muffed by Williams Jr.,Raphael at Pgh44 recovered by BC Pemberton,Vaughn at Pgh42, End Of Play PENALTY BC Targeting (McLaughlin,Luke) 7 yards from BC15 to BC08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 14
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Andy Quinn punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
50
+2
99.9%
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Josh Altsman for 4 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Zion Fowler-ElSimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Caleb Junko punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:560% → 0%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.9%
Bo MacCormack III run for 7 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Bo MacCormack III run for 2 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
99.9%
Bo MacCormack III run for 1 yd to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+45
100.0%
Shaker Reisig pass complete to Kaelan Chudzinski for 45 yds to the PITT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
99.9%
Bo MacCormack III run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 27Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+22
100.0%
Shaker Reisig pass complete to Kaelan Chudzinski for 22 yds to the PITT 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.9%
Bo MacCormack III run for 3 yds to the PITT 2Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
99.9%
Bo MacCormack III run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 3Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Shaker Reisig pass complete to Kaelan Chudzinski for 3 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
100.0%
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
100.0%
Eli Holstein run for 6 yds to the PITT 34Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+4
100.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Tony Kinsler for 4 yds to the PITT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Cam SappSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
100.0%
Eli Holstein run for 8 yds to the PITT 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:25
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 12 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
+9.5
TD · Q2 1:56
Juelz Goff run for 3 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q2 0:10
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 6 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com