ARDLINETry the model
BC

Boston College 7 at Pittsburgh 48

PITT
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey play
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDKEY PLAYFGKEY PLAYKEY PLAYKEY PLAYKEY PLAYTD
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
BC · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · 9 yds
Q1 15:00
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
70.2%
0.0
Q1 14:47
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 3 yds to the BC 22
68.4%
-1.8
Q1 14:10
Turbo Richard run for 1 yd to the BC 23
67.9%
-0.5
Q1 13:27
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 11 yds to the BC 34
67.9%
0.0
Q1 12:52
Shamus Florio punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITT 24
67.9%
0.0
PITT · Drive 2TD · 12 plays · 76 yds
Q1 12:47
Juelz Goff run for no gain to the PITT 24
70.5%
+2.6
Q1 12:01
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Justin Holmes for 4 yds to the PITT 28
70.5%
0.0
Q1 11:29
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 7 yds to the PITT 35 for a 1ST down
70.5%
0.0
Q1 11:03
Juelz Goff run for 3 yds to the PITT 38
70.5%
0.0
Q1 10:28
Mason Heintschel run for 3 yds to the PITT 41
71.0%
+0.5
Q1 9:51
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 4 yds to the PITT 45 for a 1ST down
71.0%
0.0
Q1 9:24
Juelz Goff run for 1 yd to the PITT 46
71.5%
+0.5
Q1 9:01
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Heintschel,Mason pass incomplete short right to Hicks,Cataurus thrown to BC40 PENALTY BC Pass Interference (Cunningham,Ashton) 15 yards from Pgh46 to BC39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
71.5%
0.0
Q1 8:52
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for no gain to the BC 39
72.3%
+0.8
Q1 8:27
Mason Heintschel run for 13 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST down
72.3%
0.0
Q1 7:57
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 12 yds to the BC 14 for a 1ST down
72.3%
0.0
Q1 7:22
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Justin Holmes for 14 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
82.4%
+10.1
BC · Drive 3DOWNS · 8 plays · 30 yds
Q1 7:22
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
81.7%
-0.7
Q1 7:18
Turbo Richard run for no gain to the BC 25
78.9%
-2.7
Q1 6:40
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed Harris
78.9%
0.0
Q1 6:32
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 24 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST down
78.9%
0.0
Q1 6:16
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 5 yds to the PITT 46
78.3%
-0.7
Q1 5:45
Turbo Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 47
77.9%
-0.4
Q1 5:11
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis Bond
77.9%
0.0
Q1 5:04
Dylan Lonergan run for 2 yds to the PITT 45
78.1%
+0.2
PITT · Drive 4FG · 12 plays · 42 yds
Q1 4:55
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 3 yds to the PITT 48
82.3%
+4.2
Q1 4:17
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 15 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST down
82.6%
+0.3
Q1 4:04
(04:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Heintschel,Mason pass complete deep left to Hicks,Cataurus caught at BC00, for 37 yards to the BC00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 04:04 PENALTY Pgh Holding (Holmes,Justin) 10 yards from BC37 to BC47. NO PLAY.
82.6%
+0.1
Q1 4:04
Pittsburgh Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the PITT 38
82.6%
-0.1
Q1 3:46
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Juelz Goff for 13 yds to the BC 49
82.3%
-0.3
Q1 3:19
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Jake Overman for 2 yds to the BC 47
82.5%
+0.3
Q1 2:40
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 9 yds to the BC 38
82.4%
-0.1
Q1 1:49
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 21 yds to the BC 17 for a 1ST down
81.7%
-0.7
Q1 1:26
Juelz Goff run for 4 yds to the BC 13
82.3%
+0.6
Q1 0:47
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Zion Fowler-El
82.3%
0.0
Q1 0:42
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Deuce Spann
82.0%
-0.3
Q1 0:39
Trey Butkowski 31 yd FG GOOD
85.6%
+3.6
BC · Drive 5FUMBLE · 8 plays · 45 yds
Q1 0:39
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
85.5%
-0.1
Q1 0:35
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis Bond
81.8%
-3.7
Q1 0:00
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Bo MacCormack III for 2 yds to the BC 27
81.8%
-0.1
Q2 15:00
PENALTY Pgh Offside (Neal,Isaiah) 5 yards from BC27 to BC32. NO PLAY.
81.8%
0.0
Q2 15:00
PENALTY Pgh Offside (Biles,Rasheem) 5 yards from BC32 to BC37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
81.8%
0.0
Q2 14:48
Bo MacCormack III run for 1 yd to the BC 38
81.8%
0.0
Q2 14:19
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed Harris
81.4%
-0.4
Q2 14:03
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 32 yds Jeremiah Franklin fumbled, recovered by BC Kyle Louis
81.4%
0.0
PITT · Drive 6PUNT · 6 plays · 15 yds
Q2 13:35
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 15 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST down
85.5%
+4.1
Q2 13:08
Mason Heintschel run for no gain to the PITT 46
85.7%
+0.2
Q2 12:45
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 5 yds to the BC 49
85.7%
0.0
Q2 12:11
Mason Heintschel run for no gain to the BC 49
85.7%
0.0
Q2 11:31
(11:50) PENALTY Pgh False Start (Guerrier,Josh) 5 yards from BC49 to Pgh46. NO PLAY.
85.3%
-0.4
Q2 11:24
Caleb Junko punt for 41 yds , Cameron Martinez returns for 9 yds to the BC 22
85.2%
-0.1
BC · Drive 7PUNT · 4 plays · -12 yds
Q2 11:18
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis Bond
81.7%
-3.5
Q2 11:09
Dylan Lonergan sacked by Jahsear Whittington for a loss of 12 yards to the BC 10
81.7%
0.0
Q2 10:24
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Dawson Pough
81.7%
0.0
Q2 10:16
Shamus Florio punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITT 34
81.7%
0.0
PITT · Drive 8TD · 12 plays · 66 yds
Q2 10:06
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 19 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST down
85.4%
+3.7
Q2 9:43
Pittsburgh Penalty, (-10 Yards) to the PITT 48
85.7%
+0.3
Q2 9:09
Boston College Penalty, (15 Yards) to the BC 34 for a 1ST down
85.7%
0.0
Q2 8:55
Juelz Goff run for 1 yd to the BC 33
85.8%
+0.1
Q2 8:17
(08:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Heintschel,Mason pass incomplete deep right to Johnson,Kenny thrown to BC00 PENALTY Pgh Holding (Baer,Ryan) 10 yards from BC33 to BC43. NO PLAY.
85.8%
0.0
Q2 8:17
Timeout Pittsburgh, clock 08:17
85.4%
-0.4
Q2 8:11
Juelz Goff run for 7 yds to the BC 36
85.9%
+0.5
Q2 7:29
(07:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Heintschel,Mason pass incomplete deep left to Hicks,Cataurus thrown to BC00 PENALTY BC Pass Interference (Farris,Isaiah) 15 yards from BC36 to BC21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
85.8%
-0.1
Q2 7:23
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.
85.9%
+0.1
Q2 7:19
Juelz Goff run for no gain to the BC 21
85.9%
0.0
Q2 6:46
Mason Heintschel run for 9 yds to the BC 12
85.8%
-0.1
Q2 6:25
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 12 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
93.8%
+8.0
BC · Drive 9PUNT · 6 plays · -2 yds
Q2 6:25
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
93.7%
-0.1
Q2 6:14
Bo MacCormack III run for 3 yds to the BC 28
92.6%
-1.1
Q2 5:57
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jeremiah Franklin
92.6%
0.0
Q2 5:57
PENALTY BC False Start (Bowry,Jude) 5 yards from BC28 to BC23. NO PLAY.
92.6%
0.0
Q2 5:50
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Semaj Fleming
92.6%
0.0
Q2 5:42
Shamus Florio punt for 41 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for no gain to the PITT 35
92.6%
0.0
PITT · Drive 10TD · 13 plays · 65 yds
Q2 5:35
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 7 yds to the PITT 42
93.7%
+1.1
Q2 5:04
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 1 yd to the PITT 43
93.8%
+0.1
Q2 4:27
Juelz Goff run for 5 yds to the PITT 48 for a 1ST down
94.0%
+0.2
Q2 4:01
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 8 yds to the BC 44
94.0%
0.0
Q2 3:40
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Kenny Johnson
94.0%
0.0
Q2 3:32
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.
94.0%
0.0
Q2 3:23
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 7 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST down
94.0%
0.0
Q2 2:57
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Cataurus Hicks
93.9%
-0.1
Q2 2:48
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 9 yds to the BC 28
93.8%
-0.1
Q2 2:48
Timeout Boston College, clock 02:48
94.3%
+0.5
Q2 2:43
Juelz Goff run for 3 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST down
94.3%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Justin Holmes for 22 yds Justin Holmes fumbled, recovered by PITT for a 1ST down
94.3%
-0.1
Q2 1:56
Juelz Goff run for 3 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
97.5%
+3.2
BC · Drive 11PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q2 1:51
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 65 yds , TJ Green return for 16 yds to the BC 16
97.4%
-0.1
Q2 1:47
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 3 yds to the BC 19
97.2%
-0.2
Q2 1:32
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Dawson Pough for 4 yds to the BC 23
97.2%
0.0
Q2 1:18
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed Harris
97.2%
0.0
Q2 1:11
Shamus Florio punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 38
97.2%
0.0
PITT · Drive 12TD · 7 plays · 62 yds
Q2 1:06
Mason Heintschel run for 4 yds to the PITT 42
97.5%
+0.2
Q2 0:49
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 11 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST down
97.5%
0.0
Q2 0:37
Juelz Goff run for 16 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST down
97.5%
0.0
Q2 0:32
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Deuce Spann
97.5%
0.0
Q2 0:22
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Ja'Kyrian Turner for 25 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST down
97.5%
-0.1
Q2 0:19
Timeout Pittsburgh, clock 00:19
97.5%
0.0
Q2 0:10
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 6 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
98.5%
+1.0
BC · Drive 13END OF HALF · 2 plays · -3 yds
Q2 0:10
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.5%
0.0
Q2 0:00
D. Lonergan takes a knee
98.1%
-0.4
PITT · Drive 14PUNT · 5 plays · -11 yds
Q3 15:00
Andy Quinn kickoff for 61 yds fair catch by Makai Byerson at the PITT 25
98.2%
+0.1
Q3 14:54
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Kenny Johnson
98.3%
+0.2
Q3 14:50
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.
98.3%
0.0
Q3 14:43
Mason Heintschel sacked by Favor Bate for a loss of 11 yards to the PITT 14
98.3%
0.0
Q3 13:59
Caleb Junko punt for 55 yds
98.3%
0.0
BC · Drive 15FUMBLE · 4 plays · 11 yds
Q3 13:45
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jordan McDonald for 11 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST down
98.2%
-0.2
Q3 13:30
Jordan McDonald run for 9 yds to the PITT 49
98.2%
0.0
Q3 12:59
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd to the PITT 48 for a 1ST down
98.1%
0.0
Q3 12:21
Dylan Lonergan sacked by Rasheem Biles for a loss of 10 yards to the BC 39 Dylan Lonergan fumbled, recovered by BC Jimmy Scott , return for 0 yards
98.1%
0.0
PITT · Drive 16TD · 7 plays · 39 yds
Q3 12:14
Juelz Goff run for 2 yds to the BC 37
98.4%
+0.3
Q3 11:34
Mason Heintschel run for 8 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST down
98.4%
0.0
Q3 11:12
Juelz Goff run for 1 yd to the BC 28
98.4%
0.0
Q3 10:36
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 3 yds to the BC 25
98.4%
0.0
Q3 9:59
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 15 yds to the BC 10 for a 1ST down
98.4%
0.0
Q3 9:15
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Juelz Goff
98.3%
0.0
Q3 9:08
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Deuce Spann for 10 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
98.9%
+0.6
BC · Drive 17INT · 7 plays · 34 yds
Q3 9:04
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 61 yds , TJ Green return for 19 yds to the BC 23
98.9%
0.0
Q3 8:57
Grayson James pass incomplete to Luke McLaughlin
99.0%
+0.1
Q3 8:53
Grayson James pass incomplete to Luke McLaughlin
99.0%
0.0
Q3 8:39
Grayson James pass complete to Luke McLaughlin for 21 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST down
99.0%
0.0
Q3 8:12
Jordan McDonald run for 10 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST down
99.0%
0.0
Q3 7:52
Jordan McDonald run for 3 yds to the PITT 43
99.0%
0.0
Q3 7:11
Grayson James pass intercepted Shadarian Harrison return for no gain to the PITT 39
98.9%
0.0
PITT · Drive 18TD · 10 plays · 61 yds
Q3 7:04
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 2 yds to the PITT 41
98.9%
0.0
Q3 6:29
Mason Heintschel run for 5 yds to the PITT 46
98.9%
0.0
Q3 5:46
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Juelz Goff for 15 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST down
98.9%
0.0
Q3 5:09
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Jake Overman for 9 yds to the BC 30
99.0%
+0.1
Q3 4:48
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 3 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST down
99.0%
0.0
Q3 4:03
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Zion Fowler-El for 2 yds to the BC 25
99.0%
0.0
Q3 3:15
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Ja'Kyrian Turner for 7 yds to the BC 18
99.0%
0.0
Q3 2:55
Juelz Goff run for 3 yds to the BC 15 for a 1ST down
99.0%
0.0
Q3 2:14
Mason Heintschel sacked by Sedarius McConnell for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 18
99.0%
0.0
Q3 1:39
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Zion Fowler-El for 18 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
99.0%
0.0
BC · Drive 19PUNT · 9 plays · 19 yds
Q3 1:39
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.0%
0.0
Q3 1:33
Jordan McDonald run for 8 yds to the BC 33
98.8%
-0.2
Q3 0:56
Turbo Richard run for 3 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST down
98.8%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 9 yds to the BC 45
98.8%
0.0
Q4 14:54
Turbo Richard run for 1 yd to the BC 46 for a 1ST down
98.8%
0.0
Q4 14:17
Turbo Richard run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 44
98.8%
0.0
Q4 13:41
Grayson James pass incomplete to Reed Harris
98.8%
0.0
Q4 13:34
Grayson James pass incomplete to Sedarius McConnell
98.8%
0.0
Q4 13:25
Shamus Florio punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITT 24
98.8%
0.0
PITT · Drive 20FG · 11 plays · 47 yds
Q4 13:18
Juelz Goff run for 2 yds to the PITT 26
99.0%
+0.2
Q4 12:36
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Bryce Yates for 16 yds to the PITT 42 for a 1ST down
99.0%
0.0
Q4 12:10
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Bryce Yates for 6 yds to the PITT 48
99.0%
0.0
Q4 11:41
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Deuce Spann for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
99.0%
0.0
Q4 11:19
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Josh Altsman for 3 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST down
98.9%
0.0
Q4 10:50
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 19 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST down
98.9%
0.0
Q4 10:24
(10:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Heintschel,Mason pass complete short right to Spann,Deuce caught at BC30, for 11 yards to the BC17 (Davis,Carter), out of bounds PENALTY Pgh Holding (Yates,Bryce) 10 yards from BC28 to BC38. NO PLAY.
98.9%
0.0
Q4 9:56
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete
99.0%
0.0
Q4 9:50
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 5 yds to the BC 33
99.0%
0.0
Q4 9:08
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 4 yds to the BC 29
99.0%
0.0
Q4 8:28
Trey Butkowski 47 yd FG GOOD
99.0%
0.0
BC · Drive 21PUNT · 6 plays · -4 yds
Q4 8:24
Sam Carpenter kickoff for 63 yds , Bo MacCormack III return for 10 yds to the BC 12
99.0%
0.0
Q4 8:18
Bo MacCormack III run for 3 yds to the BC 15
98.7%
-0.3
Q4 7:40
Grayson James pass incomplete to Bo MacCormack III
98.7%
0.0
Q4 7:32
Grayson James pass incomplete to Kaelan Chudzinski
98.7%
0.0
Q4 7:21
(07:29) Quinn,Andy punt 41 yards to the Pgh44 muffed by Williams Jr.,Raphael at Pgh44 recovered by BC Pemberton,Vaughn at Pgh42, End Of Play PENALTY BC Targeting (McLaughlin,Luke) 7 yards from BC15 to BC08. NO PLAY.
98.7%
0.0
Q4 7:14
Andy Quinn punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line
98.7%
0.0
PITT · Drive 22PUNT · 4 plays · 6 yds
Q4 7:05
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds to the BC 48
99.0%
+0.3
Q4 6:28
Eli Holstein pass complete to Josh Altsman for 4 yds to the BC 44
99.0%
0.0
Q4 6:07
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Zion Fowler-El
99.0%
0.0
Q4 5:58
Caleb Junko punt for 44 yds for a touchback
99.0%
0.0
BC · Drive 23TD · 9 plays · 80 yds
Q4 5:53
Bo MacCormack III run for 7 yds to the BC 27
98.7%
-0.4
Q4 5:21
Bo MacCormack III run for 2 yds to the BC 29
98.7%
0.0
Q4 4:56
Bo MacCormack III run for 1 yd to the BC 30 for a 1ST down
98.7%
+0.1
Q4 4:18
Shaker Reisig pass complete to Kaelan Chudzinski for 45 yds to the PITT 25 for a 1ST down
98.7%
0.0
Q4 3:56
Bo MacCormack III run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 27
98.7%
0.0
Q4 3:15
Shaker Reisig pass complete to Kaelan Chudzinski for 22 yds to the PITT 5 for a 1ST down
98.7%
0.0
Q4 3:02
Bo MacCormack III run for 3 yds to the PITT 2
98.7%
0.0
Q4 2:34
Bo MacCormack III run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 3
98.7%
0.0
Q4 1:57
Shaker Reisig pass complete to Kaelan Chudzinski for 3 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
98.7%
0.0
PITT · Drive 24END OF GAME · 7 plays · 20 yds
Q4 1:52
Andy Quinn kickoff for 65 yds , Deuce Spann return for 26 yds to the PITT 26
98.7%
0.0
Q4 1:46
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds to the PITT 28
98.9%
+0.2
Q4 1:03
Eli Holstein run for 6 yds to the PITT 34
98.9%
0.0
Q4 0:52
Timeout Boston College, clock 00:52
99.0%
+0.1
Q4 0:46
Eli Holstein pass complete to Tony Kinsler for 4 yds to the PITT 38 for a 1ST down
99.0%
0.0
Q4 0:23
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Cam Sapp
99.0%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Eli Holstein run for 8 yds to the PITT 46
99.1%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 7:22
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Justin Holmes for 14 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
+10.1
TD · Q2 6:25
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 12 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
+8
KEY PLAY · Q1 4:55
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 3 yds to the PITT 48
+4.2
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com