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LOU

Louisville 34 at Pittsburgh 27

PITT
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:55 · Nick Keller 56 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Home team on offense+6.6Pregame prior−1.7Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Score differential+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:32: Miller Moss run for 1 yd for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK) — LOU win probability +9.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:42: Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 25 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK) — LOU win probability +18.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:19: Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 38 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK) — PITT win probability +11.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:49: Miller Moss pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 12 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK) — LOU win probability +28.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:03: Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 9 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK) — LOU win probability +27.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 12 of 12LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:34PITT 4th & 6 at LOU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:21LOU 4th & 23 at LOU 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:44LOU 4th & 18 at LOU 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:27PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:03LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−2.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:14PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:03LOU 4th & 7 at PITT 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−5.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:48PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.2%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:48PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:12PITT 4th & 6 at LOU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:42PITT 4th & 6 at LOU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−5.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:51LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.4
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:44LOU 4th & 9 at PITT 39, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:25PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:55LOU 4th & 7 at PITT 38, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%−1.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:47LOU 4th & 15 at LOU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−3.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:23PITT 4th & 7 at LOU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    80.5%−1.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:23PITT 4th & 7 at LOU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    80.5%−1.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−1.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:46PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.6%−4.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:46PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.6%−4.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:18LOU 4th & 16 at PITT 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    90.6%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:53PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:41PITT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:32LOU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:42LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:19PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:49LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:03LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1FG
13 plays · 77 yds · 3:1545% → 47%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
45.3%
Juelz Goff run for 7 yds to the PITT 18Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+12
45.5%
Eli Holstein run for 12 yds to the PITT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
45.6%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Juelz Goff for 7 yds to the PITT 37Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+6
45.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Justin Holmes for 6 yds to the PITT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
46.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 3
50
+34
46.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 34 yds to the LOU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
46.6%
Juelz Goff run for 4 yds to the LOU 12Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
46.7%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
46.6%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Malachi ThomasSimilar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+30
46.8%
Trey Butkowski 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:4353% → 52%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.0%
Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 26Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-12
47.2%
Louisville Penalty, (-12 Yards) to the LOU 12Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 23
OWN 12
0
47.5%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 23
OWN 12
+3
47.8%
Carter Schwartz punt for 44 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for 3 yds to the PITT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:0848% → 49%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
47.9%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 14 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
49.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 39 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
Q1 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
49.4%
PENALTY Pitt False Start (Ray,Tai) 5 yards from UL03 to UL08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 3:5051% → 48%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
49.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 8 yds to the LOU 22Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+4
49.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 4 yds to the LOU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
49.8%
Duke Watson run for 1 yd to the LOU 27Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+12
50.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 12 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
49.9%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+14
50.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 14 yds to the PITT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
49.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Isaac Brown for 2 yds to the PITT 45Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
49.8%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Dacari CollinsSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 8
OPP 45
-10
50.1%
(06:20) Shotgun Moss,Miller pass complete short left to Watson,Duke caught at Pitt42, for 6 yards to the Pitt39 (Harrison,Shadarian; Bryant,Allen) PENALTY UL Holding (Robinson,Lance) 10 yards from Pitt45 to UL45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 18
OWN 45
0
51.2%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 18
OWN 45
0
51.7%
David Chapeau punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0758% → 58%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
57.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 2 yds to the PITT 22Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
58.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 3 yds to the PITT 25Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
58.6%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Cataurus HicksSimilar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+6
58.3%
Caleb Junko punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOU 37 , Caullin Lacy returns for 6 yds to the LOU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6INT TD
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:2649% → 39%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
51.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 6 yds to the LOU 43Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+7
52.0%
Isaac Brown run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
50
+1
52.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 1 yd to the PITT 49Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
52.6%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Dacari CollinsSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+14
53.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 14 yds to the PITT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
52.0%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to TreyShun HurrySimilar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
52.1%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-5
52.9%
PENALTY UL Delay Of Game 5 yards from Pitt35 to Pitt40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 15
OPP 40
-75
61.2%
Miller Moss pass intercepted Rasheem Biles return for 75 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:3239% → 34%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
61.4%
Duke Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 24Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+18
62.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 18 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
62.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
50
-1
62.9%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 49Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-11
63.3%
Miller Moss sacked by Blaine Spires for a loss of 11 yards to the LOU 38Similar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 14
OWN 38
+59
66.0%
Carter Schwartz punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2637% → 43%
Q2 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
62.7%
Duke Watson run for 1 yd to the PITT 2Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.7%
Duke Watson run for 1 yd to the PITT 1Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.3%
Miller Moss run for 1 yd for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)Similar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
56.9%
PENALTY UL UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Moussa,Mahamane) 15 yards from UL35 to UL20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5964% → 64%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
63.6%
Eli Holstein run for 4 yds to the PITT 27Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
63.9%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 1 yd to the PITT 28Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
63.7%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
63.5%
Caleb Junko punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 6:1142% → 40%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
58.0%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 17Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+9
59.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 9 yds to the LOU 26Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+10
59.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 10 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
59.2%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to TreyShun HurrySimilar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
59.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Isaac Brown for 3 yds to the LOU 39Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+13
60.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Antonio Meeks for 13 yds to the PITT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
58.9%
Duke Watson run for 8 yds to the PITT 40Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+1
59.0%
Duke Watson run for 1 yd to the PITT 39Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
59.4%
Miller Moss run for 4 yds to the PITT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
59.2%
(06:28) Shotgun Moss,Miller pass incomplete short left to Panariello,Jaxon thrown to Pitt31 PENALTY Pitt Pass Interference (Lovelace,Braylan) 3 yards from Pitt35 to Pitt32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
59.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds to the PITT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
59.1%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to TreyShun HurrySimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
59.6%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+3
60.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Isaac Brown for 3 yds to the PITT 17Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
59.7%
Cooper Ranvier 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:5963% → 62%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.9%
Eli Holstein run for 5 yds to the PITT 30Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
63.2%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
62.4%
Eli Holstein run for 3 yds to the PITT 33Similar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-6
62.2%
Caleb Junko run for a loss of 6 yards to the PITT 25 Caleb Junko fumbled, recovered by LOU Denzel LowrySimilar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-6
62.2%
Caleb Junko run for a loss of 6 yards to the PITT 25 Caleb Junko fumbled, recovered by LOU Denzel LowrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
43.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 25 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 1:4051% → 59%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
51.0%
PENALTY UL UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Hutchinson,D'Angelo) 15 yards from Pitt25 to Pitt40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
53.1%
Louisville Penalty, (15 Yards) to the LOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
54.2%
Juelz Goff run for 4 yds to the LOU 33Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
54.8%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
53.6%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+10
51.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 10 yds to the LOU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
55.5%
Juelz Goff run for 9 yds to the LOU 14Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 1
OPP 14
0
55.4%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 1
OPP 14
0
56.2%
Jalynn Williams run for no gain to the LOU 14Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 1
OPP 14
-5
54.9%
PENALTY Pitt False Start (Persi,Jeffrey) 5 yards from UL14 to UL19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
59.4%
Trey Butkowski 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4344% → 39%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
56.4%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Isaac BrownSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
56.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 8 yds to the LOU 29Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 2
OWN 29
0
59.5%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
60.9%
Carter Schwartz punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 0:2359% → 67%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
58.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 12 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
61.5%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Juelz Goff for 5 yds to the LOU 49Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+11
62.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Justin Holmes for 11 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
74.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 38 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
67.0%
PENALTY Pitt False Start (Persi,Jeffrey) 5 yards from UL03 to UL08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.1%
Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the LOU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:0833% → 33%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.5%
Caullin Lacy run for 2 yds to the LOU 27Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
67.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 13 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
68.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 20 yds to the PITT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
67.7%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Isaac rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Pitt37 (Biles,Rasheem) PENALTY UL Holding (Robinson,Lance) 10 yards from Pitt40 to Pitt50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 20
50
+6
69.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 6 yds to the PITT 44Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 14
OPP 44
0
69.4%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+5
70.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 5 yds to the PITT 39Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 9
OPP 39
+57
66.9%
Nick Keller 57 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0968% → 67%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.2%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 2 yds to the PITT 27Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
68.6%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
67.4%
Eli Holstein run for no gain to the PITT 27Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
66.8%
Caleb Junko punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:2633% → 31%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.0%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
67.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Isaac Brown for 8 yds to the LOU 43Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
65.9%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
65.9%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
66.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Antonio Meeks for 13 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
65.4%
Duke Watson run for 1 yd to the PITT 40Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+2
65.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 2 yds to the PITT 38Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
66.6%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Antonio MeeksSimilar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+56
68.9%
Nick Keller 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20INT
3 plays · 58 yds · 1:1276% → 78%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
75.7%
Eli Holstein run for 2 yds to the PITT 40Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+56
76.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 56 yds to the LOU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
78.3%
Eli Holstein pass intercepted Antonio Watts return for no gain to the LOU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 4:2928% → 22%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
71.9%
Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the LOU 6Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 6
OWN 6
-1
72.8%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 5Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+15
74.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 15 yds to the LOU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
72.3%
Duke Watson run for 15 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
71.7%
Duke Watson run for 2 yds to the LOU 37Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-9
71.8%
Miller Moss sacked by Rasheem Biles for a loss of 9 yards to the LOU 28Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 17
OWN 28
-5
74.7%
PENALTY UL False Start (Robinson,Lance) 5 yards from UL28 to UL23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 22
OWN 23
+7
76.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 7 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q3 0:47
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
77.7%
Carter Schwartz punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1683% → 82%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
82.7%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 14 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
84.5%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 3 yds to the LOU 39Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+2
84.7%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 2 yds to the LOU 37Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+2
84.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Deuce Spann for 2 yds to the LOU 39Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
81.7%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Ja'Kyrian TurnerSimilar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
81.7%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Ja'Kyrian TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:1723% → 55%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
76.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duke Watson for 3 yds to the LOU 42Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
76.4%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+37
78.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 37 yds to the PITT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
73.2%
Duke Watson run for 2 yds to the PITT 19Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+7
73.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 7 yds to the PITT 12Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+12
44.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 12 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24INT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:4055% → 55%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
55.4%
Eli Holstein sacked by Rene Konga for a loss of 7 yards to the PITT 18Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
55.0%
Eli Holstein pass intercepted TJ Quinn return for no gain to the PITT 30Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
55.0%
Eli Holstein pass intercepted TJ Quinn return for no gain to the PITT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:5457% → 85%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
43.3%
Isaac Brown run for 9 yds to the PITT 21Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+3
42.7%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the PITT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
42.7%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 20Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+12
43.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 12 yds to the PITT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
42.6%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 9Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
15.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 9 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 20 yds · 4:0123% → 20%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
22.9%
(06:51) Shotgun Goff,Juelz rush middle for 19 yards gain to the Pitt47 (Hutchinson,D'Angelo; Gordon,Corey) PENALTY Pitt Holding (Persi,Jeffrey) 10 yards from Pitt28 to Pitt18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+11
21.8%
Cole Gonzales pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 11 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+2
21.0%
Juelz Goff run for 2 yds to the PITT 31Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+14
20.3%
Cole Gonzales pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 14 yds to the PITT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
23.6%
Cole Gonzales pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 6 yds to the LOU 49Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-2
26.4%
Juelz Goff run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 49Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-1
22.9%
Cole Gonzales sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 48Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
20.3%
Cole Gonzales pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
20.3%
Cole Gonzales pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:2292% → 94%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
7.8%
Duke Watson run for 5 yds to the PITT 43Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+9
6.0%
Duke Watson run for 9 yds to the PITT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
4.7%
Duke Watson run for 2 yds to the PITT 32Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
4.5%
Duke Watson run for no gain to the PITT 32Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 8
OPP 32
-3
4.5%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 35Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 11
OPP 35
-5
5.6%
PENALTY UL Delay Of Game 5 yards from Pitt35 to Pitt40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 16
OPP 40
0
5.7%
Carter Schwartz punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITT 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 28INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0710% → 10%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
10.3%
Cole Gonzales pass incomplete to Cataurus HicksSimilar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
10.1%
Cole Gonzales pass intercepted TJ Quinn return for no gain to the PITT 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
4.0%
M. Moss takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:49
Miller Moss pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 12 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
-28.8
TD · Q4 7:03
Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 9 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
-27.6
TD · Q2 3:42
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 25 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
-18.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com