2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:22 · Connor Calvert 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:53: Demond Claiborne run for 27 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK) — WAKE win probability +17.4 pts (now 52%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:17: Haynes King run for 5 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +24.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- FG · Q4 0:02: Aidan Birr 33 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +22.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: H.King rushed for 2 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — GT win probability +27.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: D.Claiborne rushed for 25 yards. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane and the play was upheld. — WAKE win probability +34.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 10GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 11:23GT 4th & 8 at GT 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snapGo for it76.6%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.6%average punt
- Q1 10:43WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snapGo for it23.4%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.5%average punt
- Q1 8:09GT 4th & 15 at WAKE 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.9% before the snapGo for it74.6%−0.315% to convertField goalTheir call74.9%79% to makePunt74.1%−0.8average punt
- Q1 4:03WAKE 4th & 9 at GT 47, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snapGo for it25.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.0%average punt
- Q1 0:47GT 4th & 11 at GT 45, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snapGo for it71.9%−0.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.4%average punt
- Q2 14:14WAKE 4th & 11 at WAKE 9, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snapGo for it26.4%−0.624% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.1%average punt
- Q2 13:11GT 4th & 6 at WAKE 39, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.4%40% to convertField goal71.9%−0.536% to makePunt72.0%−0.4average punt
- Q2 7:21GT 4th & 1 at WAKE 30, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call64.6%71% to convertField goal62.9%−1.756% to makePunt61.9%−2.7average punt
- Q2 3:11GT 4th & 3 at GT 43, down 11Close callPunted · 46.6% before the snapGo for it46.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.3%−0.5average punt
- Q2 0:22WAKE 4th & 7 at GT 7, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.9% before the snapGo for it57.8%−1.128% to convertField goalTheir call58.8%91% to makePunt53.0%−5.9average punt
- Q3 10:33WAKE 4th & 5 at GT 7, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snapGo for it70.5%−0.234% to convertField goalTheir call70.7%91% to makePunt59.6%−11.1average punt
- Q3 4:15WAKE 4th & 13 at WAKE 22, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snapGo for it66.6%−4.919% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.4%average punt
- Q4 13:43WAKE 4th & 13 at WAKE 22, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snapGo for it54.5%−6.819% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.4%average punt
- Q4 9:45GT 4th & 2 at WAKE 2, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snapGo for it45.6%48% to convertField goalTheir call41.9%−3.794% to makePunt25.2%−20.3average punt
- Q4 6:54WAKE 4th & 5 at GT 10, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snapGo for it52.7%37% to convertField goalTheir call52.6%−0.188% to makePunt30.4%−22.3average punt
- Q4 5:08WAKE 4th & 12 at GT 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.8% before the snapGo for it45.4%−5.819% to convertField goalTheir call51.2%86% to makePunt27.2%−24.0average punt
- Q4 3:55GT 4th & 10 at WAKE 46, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 33.1% before the snapGo for it27.3%30% to convertField goal26.4%−0.823% to makePuntTheir call25.6%−1.7average punt
- Q4 1:41WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 32, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snapGo for it82.0%−3.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.5%average punt
- Q4 0:02GT 4th & 3 at WAKE 16, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.8% before the snapGo for it20.0%−16.051% to convertField goalTheir call35.9%81% to makePunt7.9%−28.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 10:46WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.7%97% to makeGo for two34.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:53WAKE Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.3%97% to makeGo for two48.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:39GT Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.5%97% to makeGo for two28.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:17GT Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.6%97% to makeGo for two42.3%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT11 plays · 26 yds · 3:2684% → 82%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
15.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Isiah Canion for 4 yds to the GT 24Similar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
16.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for no gain to the GT 44Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
17.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 2 yds to the GT 46Similar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 8
OWN 46
+16
17.6%
(11:39) Nichols,Marshall punt 44 yards to the Wake10 Hernandez,Carlos return 16 yards to the Wake26 (Gordon,Daylon) PENALTY Wake Illegal Block in Back offsetting Ga Tch Face Mask offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3418% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3FG10 plays · 22 yds · 2:2682% → 81%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
17.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 6 yds to the WAKE 34Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+13
18.5%
(09:22) No Huddle-Shotgun King,Haynes pass incomplete short middle to Canion,Isiah thrown to Wake09 PENALTY Wake Personal Foul (Johnson,Braylon) 13 yards from Wake26 to Wake13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-5
18.6%
PENALTY Ga Tch False Start (Moore,Harrison) 5 yards from Wake13 to Wake18. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT11 plays · 28 yds · 4:0019% → 20%
GTDrive 5PUNT10 plays · 30 yds · 3:1180% → 78%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
21.0%
Wake Forest Penalty, unnecessary roughness (15 Yards) to the GT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
20.3%
PENALTY Ga Tch False Start (Riggs,Jameson) 5 yards from Ga Tch46 to Ga Tch41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+4
21.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Malachi Hosley for 4 yds to the GT 45Similar
Q1 0:47
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
22.2%
Marshall Nichols punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Carlos Hernandez at the WAKE 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2720% → 20%
GTDrive 7DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5879% → 78%
WAKEDrive 8TD8 plays · 66 yds · 2:2022% → 32%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+35
23.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 35 yds to the GT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9DOWNS8 plays · 44 yds · 3:2069% → 67%
WAKEDrive 10TD5 plays · 69 yds · 1:2334% → 52%
GTDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3555% → 48%
WAKEDrive 12FG11 plays · 83 yds · 2:4158% → 62%
Q2 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+4
60.5%
Demond Claiborne run for 4 yds to the WAKE 40 Demond Claiborne fumbled, recovered by GT Eni FalayiSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+37
61.3%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 37 yds to the GT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
62.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 14 yds to the GT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · 3 yds · 0:1135% → 34%
WAKEDrive 14FG15 plays · 68 yds · 4:1662% → 76%
GTDrive 15TD16 plays · 78 yds · 4:4527% → 37%
Q3 10:01
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+17
74.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Rivers for 17 yds to the GT 40 for a 1ST down Wake Forest Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
72.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Rivers for 13 yds to the WAKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
70.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Rivers for 4 yds to the WAKE 43Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
71.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 7 yds to the WAKE 16Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+14
63.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Rivers for 14 yds for a TD Wake Forest Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2170% → 69%
Q3 4:15
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
68.7%
Cal Joseph punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17TD9 plays · 65 yds · 3:5032% → 53%
WAKEDrive 18PUNT7 plays · -6 yds · 1:1755% → 57%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
54.6%
Wake Forest Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WAKE 20Similar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
54.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Demond Claiborne for a loss of 1 yard to the WAKE 19Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-5
52.7%
Wake Forest Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the WAKE 17Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+5
51.4%
PENALTY Ga Tch Offside (Gordon,Daylon) 5 yards from Wake17 to Wake22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+15
56.7%
Cal Joseph punt for 48 yds , Bailey Stockton returns for 15 yds to the GT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19FG7 plays · 53 yds · 3:5848% → 60%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+37
51.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Isiah Canion for 37 yds to the WAKE 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20MISSED FG10 plays · 65 yds · 2:5149% → 54%
Q4 9:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
48.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 11 yds to the WAKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
53.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 15 yds to the GT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
55.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 28 yds to the GT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21FUMBLE1 play · 3 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
44.8%
Jamal Haynes run for 3 yds to the GT 23 Jamal Haynes fumbled, recovered by GT Karon PruntySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22FG7 plays · 11 yds · 1:2660% → 71%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 1:0235% → 33%
WAKEDrive 24PUNT10 plays · 25 yds · 2:0980% → 86%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
80.3%
(03:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Claiborne,Demond rush right for 6 yards gain to the Wake13, End Of Play PENALTY Wake Holding (Fa'amoe,Fa'alili) 3 yards from Wake07 to Wake04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+16
83.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Sawyer Racanelli for 16 yds to the WAKE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
86.3%
Cal Joseph punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 25FG10 plays · 54 yds · 1:3223% → 53%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
77.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Isiah Canion for 22 yds to the WAKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+15
74.3%
(01:21) Shotgun King,Haynes pass incomplete deep left to Rivers,Eric thrown to Wake25 PENALTY Wake Pass Interference (Prunty,Karon) 15 yards from Wake48 to Wake33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+8
72.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Rivers for 8 yds to the WAKE 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26END OF GAME2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 27TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 89%
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+17
39.8%
H.King pass complete. Catch made by J.Beetham for 17 yards. Tackled by D.Patterson at WAKE 3.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
46.3%
D.Claiborne rushed for 25 yards. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane and the play was upheld.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-46.3
TD · OT 0:00
D.Claiborne rushed for 25 yards. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane and the play was upheld.
+34.8
TD · OT 0:00
H.King rushed for 2 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
-27.9