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CAL

California 28 at Boston College 24

BC
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-36.1BC 2.1%Mason Mini 51 Yd pass from Jaron-KeaweSagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)AWAY 28 - HOME 24 · Q4 1:30
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:30 · Mason Mini 51 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Offense timeoutsDefense timeoutsPregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingTwo-minute warning
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Offense timeouts−21.2Defense timeouts−19.2Pregame prior+0.6Home team on offense−28.7Time remaining+10.0Two-minute warning−14.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:47: Turbo Richard 27 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick) — BC win probability +6.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q1 1:05: LJ Johnson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick) — CAL win probability +7.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · Q2 3:46: Jacob De Jesus 5 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick) — CAL win probability +10.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · Q4 13:47: Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK) — CAL win probability +7.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · Q4 1:30: Mason Mini 51 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick) — CAL win probability +36.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 1:05CAL 4th & 1 at BC 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    24.4%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−5.6
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:51BC 4th & 16 at BC 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:12BC 4th & 3 at CAL 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    63.4%−0.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:37BC 4th & 10 at CAL 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:11CAL 4th & 3 at BC 42, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−2.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:23BC 4th & 7 at CAL 37, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−0.8
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:00CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:28BC 4th & 4 at BC 16, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:56CAL 4th & 1 at BC 3, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.5%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%−4.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−18.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:15CAL 4th & 1 at BC 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%−3.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−14.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:48BC 4th & 3 at BC 48, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:52CAL 4th & 11 at CAL 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.2%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:47BC 4th & 8 at BC 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.2%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:56BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:47BC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:05CAL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:46CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:30CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.4 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 2:1467% → 66%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
67.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
67.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 9 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+3
66.1%
Turbo Richard run for 3 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
66.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 7 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+5
65.6%
Turbo Richard run for 5 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
65.4%
Turbo Richard run for 4 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+16
65.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 16 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
65.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed HarrisSimilar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
65.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 4 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+21
65.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 21 yds to the CAL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
65.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 8 yds to the CAL 7Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+7
66.4%
Dylan Lonergan run for 7 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2INT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:4933% → 34%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
67.0%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the CAL 25 California Penalty, Offensive holding (Jordan Spasojevic-Moko) to the CAL 15Similar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+6
66.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the CAL 21Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
66.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass intercepted Omar Thornton return for no gain to the CAL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:1366% → 72%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
65.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
71.8%
Turbo Richard 27 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:3830% → 42%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
69.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 8 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+29
69.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 29 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
68.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
67.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
68.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-9
67.5%
Jacob De Jesus run for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 36Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 19
OPP 36
+12
67.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 12 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+15
67.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason Mini, broken up by Omar Thornton for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, Defensive pass interference (KP Price) to the BC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
67.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the BC 3 for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, face mask (0 yards) (Quintayvious Hutchins) to the BC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
66.9%
California Penalty, false start (Jordan Spasojevic-Moko) to the BC 6Similar
Q1 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
66.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the BC 1Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
65.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 2Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
65.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the BC 1Similar
Q1 1:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.1%
LJ Johnson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 3:0554% → 49%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
53.7%
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd to the BC 36Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
52.8%
Dylan Lonergan run for 1 yd to the BC 37Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+11
52.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 11 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
53.2%
Dylan Lonergan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
52.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Luke McLaughlin for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 8
50
-8
51.3%
Dylan Lonergan sacked by Cade Uluave for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 42Similar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
48.9%
Shamus Florio punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
16 plays · 84 yds · 9:0246% → 63%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
54.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 18Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+8
54.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 8 yds to the CAL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
53.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 9 yds to the CAL 35Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+5
51.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
51.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 3 yds to the CAL 43Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-5
50.9%
California Penalty, false start (Mason Mini) to the CAL 38Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+18
51.7%
Brandon High Jr. run for 3 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Onye Nwosisi) to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
50.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 9 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+12
48.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 12 yds to the BC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
50.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the BC 23Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+8
49.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 8 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+3
49.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
48.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the BC 12 Boston College Penalty, off-side (Edwin Kolenge) to the BC 7Similar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 5
OPP 7
-1
48.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 8Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+3
47.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the BC 5Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
36.6%
Jacob De Jesus 5 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7FG
14 plays · 36 yds · 3:0440% → 33%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
40.4%
Boston College Penalty, false start (Eryx Daugherty) to the BC 25Similar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+5
39.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
39.2%
Turbo Richard run for 13 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
42.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 1 yd to the BC 44Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+10
30.5%
Turbo Richard run for 10 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
31.2%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Dawson Pough, broken up by Ja'ir SmithSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
30.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 7 yds to the CAL 39Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
30.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+5
29.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 5 yds to the CAL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
32.2%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jeremiah Franklin, broken up by Aiden ManutaiSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
32.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Turbo Richard, broken up by Derek WilkinsSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
30.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
32.5%
L. Lombardo 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the BC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:4951% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
49.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 26 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
45.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
44.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
47.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De Jesus, broken up by Quintayvious HutchinsSimilar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
48.1%
Michael Kern punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 43 yds · 4:4048% → 43%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
47.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed Harris California Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Brent Austin) to the BC 35Similar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
49.2%
Turbo Richard run for 4 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
50.8%
Turbo Richard run for 7 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
50.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 14 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
50.2%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for no gain to the CAL 40Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
49.4%
Dylan Lonergan run for 3 yds to the CAL 37Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-15
49.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for no gain to the BC 37 Boston College Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Reed Harris) to the BC 48Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 22
OWN 48
+15
47.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Dawson Pough for 15 yds to the CAL 37Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
43.0%
Shamus Florio punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:1950% → 50%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
50.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 3 yds to the CAL 12Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+20
49.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 20 yds to the CAL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
48.0%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the CAL 38Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+4
45.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 4 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
45.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De Jesus for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Charleston Coldon) to the CAL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
44.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
45.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the CAL 49Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
46.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason MiniSimilar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
50.3%
Michael Kern punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2843% → 40%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
42.9%
Boston College Penalty, personal foul (-5 Yards) to the BC 5Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+9
42.6%
Turbo Richard run for 9 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+2
43.5%
Turbo Richard run for 2 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
41.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jeremiah FranklinSimilar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
40.1%
Shamus Florio punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:2954% → 54%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
46.0%
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
45.0%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
44.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 4 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
43.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 21 yds to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
42.0%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
40.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason MiniSimilar
Q3 0:08
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+5
43.8%
Boston College Penalty, off-side (Quintayvious Hutchins) to the BC 5Similar
Q3 0:06
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+2
43.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the BC 3Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 1
OPP 3
0
46.3%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the BC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0845% → 45%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
44.9%
Turbo Richard run for no gain to the BC 3 Boston College Penalty, Offensive holding (Logan Taylor) to the BC 2Similar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+4
44.8%
Turbo Richard run for 4 yds to the BC 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q4 13:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
45.9%
Turbo Richard 71 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17DOWNS
14 plays · 49 yds · 5:1249% → 50%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
50.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De Jesus, broken up by Favor BateSimilar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
51.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for no gain to the CAL 22 California Penalty, illegal formation (Cade Uluave) to the CAL 17Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+10
51.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 10 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+7
51.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De Jesus, broken up by Cameron Martinez for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cameron Martinez) to the CAL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
48.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+18
49.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for 18 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
44.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
45.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 9 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+1
44.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
46.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jordan KingSimilar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
46.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 8 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
48.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 1 yd to the BC 29Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
49.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for no gain to the BC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:2252% → 62%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
52.3%
Turbo Richard run for 5 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
52.0%
Turbo Richard run for 3 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+4
58.9%
Turbo Richard run for 4 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
63.7%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jordan McDonald for 4 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
63.9%
Jordan McDonald run for 3 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
63.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Turbo RichardSimilar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
61.5%
Shamus Florio punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 3:1331% → 98%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
68.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 10 yds to the CAL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
68.3%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 24Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
67.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 3 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+8
69.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 8 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
70.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the CAL 35 California Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyson Ruffins) to the CAL 25Similar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 20
OWN 25
0
73.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to LJ Johnson Jr., broken up by Owen McGowanSimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+9
73.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 9 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
46.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond Grizzell, broken up by Isaiah FarrisSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+15
47.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond Grizzell, broken up by Isaiah Farris for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Isaiah Farris) to the CAL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
38.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jordan King, broken up by Ashton CunninghamSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+51
2.1%
Mason Mini 51 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20INT
12 plays · 70 yds · 1:066% → 10%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
6.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 16 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+3
5.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Kaelan Chudzinski for 3 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
6.8%
Boston College Penalty, false start (Turbo Richard) to the BC 36Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+9
5.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Kaelan Chudzinski for 9 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-5
6.4%
Boston College Penalty, false start (Kevin Cline) to the BC 43Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
5.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+14
4.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 14 yds to the CAL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
6.2%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed Harris for a 1ST down California Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Hezekiah Masses) to the CAL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+26
9.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 26 yds to the CAL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
11.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed Harris, broken up by Cam SidneySimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
10.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass intercepted Luke Ferrelli return for no gain to the CAL 5 California Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Luke Ferrelli) to the CAL 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21END OF GAME
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0698% → 98%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
1.6%
California Penalty, false start (Leon Bell) to the CAL 1Similar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
1.6%
California Penalty, false start (Frederick Williams III) to the CAL 1Similar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+5
1.6%
Boston College Penalty, off-side (Sedarius McConnell) to the CAL 6Similar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
1.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for no gain to the CAL 1Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 5
OWN 6
-3
1.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:30
Mason Mini 51 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)
-36.1
TD · Q2 3:46
Jacob De Jesus 5 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)
-10.9
TD · Q1 1:05
LJ Johnson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)
-7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com