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FSU

Florida State 38 at Virginia 46

UVA
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 26, 2025 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:15 · Tommy Castellanos run for 6 yds to the UVA 31 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 166Pregame prior−1.7Home team on offense+10.5Garbage-time factor+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Score differential+4.6Time remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:18: Randy Pittman Jr. pass complete to Duce Robinson for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK) — FSU win probability +22.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:20: Chandler Morris pass complete to Xavier Brown for 15 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +33.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:36: Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK) — FSU win probability +34.9 pts (now 51%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: W.Bettridge 39 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-B.Robinson, Holder-D.Sparks. — UVA win probability +36.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: C.Morris scrambles for 4 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — UVA win probability +26.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:21UVA 4th & 10 at FSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:57FSU 4th & 16 at FSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:00UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:54FSU 4th & 4 at UVA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    58.1%−1.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:58FSU 4th & 6 at UVA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−8.2
    average punt
  6. Q4 13:27UVA 4th & 3 at FSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.8%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:53UVA 4th & 1 at FSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.8%−6.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−23.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 5:15FSU 4th & 2 at UVA 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%−3.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:43FSU 4th & 1 at UVA 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−4.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−10.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:43FSU 4th & 1 at UVA 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−4.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−10.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:18UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 29, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:36FSU 4th & 11 at UVA 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−4.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−8.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:05UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:43UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:52FSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:29FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:32FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:48UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:45UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:18FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:20UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−1.7
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:36FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−5.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:3331% → 32%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.7%
J'Mari Taylor run for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
30.9%
J'Mari Taylor run for 9 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
31.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 14 yds to the FSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
31.4%
J'Mari Taylor run for 2 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-2
31.8%
Chandler Morris sacked by Ashlynd Barker for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 48Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
31.9%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Jayden ThomasSimilar
Q1 12:21
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
31.8%
Elijah Slibeck punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Squirrel White at the FSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:1568% → 67%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
31.8%
Tommy Castellanos run for 3 yds to the FSU 23Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+13
32.0%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 13 yds to the FSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
32.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
32.2%
Tommy Castellanos run for 5 yds to the FSU 41Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-15
32.2%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Castellanos,Tommy pass complete short right to Robinson,Duce caught at FSU50, for 12 yards to the UVA47 (Platt,Donavon) PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (Little Jr.,Earl) 15 yards from FSU41 to FSU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+4
32.8%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 4 yds to the FSU 30Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
33.2%
Mac Chiumento punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cam Ross at the UVA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4733% → 33%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
33.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 6 yds to the UVA 35Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+3
33.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 3 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+4
33.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 4 yds to the UVA 36Similar
Q1 8:00
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+23
33.4%
Elijah Slibeck punt for 44 yds , Squirrel White returns for 23 yds to the FSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:2267% → 66%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
33.2%
(07:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Castellanos,Tommy pass complete short left to Danzy,Micahi caught at FSU42, for 6 yards to the FSU49 (Osborne,Hunter) PENALTY FSU Illegal Block in Back (Petitbon,Luke) 10 yards from FSU43 to FSU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+5
34.0%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 5 yds to the FSU 38 Gavin Sawchuk fumbled, recovered by UVA Fisher CamacSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5TD
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:2135% → 40%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
34.7%
J'Mari Taylor run for 3 yds to the FSU 35Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+15
35.2%
Florida State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the FSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
35.4%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Trell HarrisSimilar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
35.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 5 yds to the FSU 14Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+6
35.4%
J'Mari Taylor run for 6 yds to the FSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
35.9%
J'Mari Taylor run for 2 yds to the FSU 6Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Sage Ennis for 6 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6INT
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:1061% → 62%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
38.6%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 18 yds to the FSU 43Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
38.8%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 10 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
38.8%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 4 yds to the FSU 39Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
38.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
50
+1
38.0%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the UVA 49Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
38.4%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Lawayne McCoySimilar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+12
38.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 12 yds to the UVA 37 for a 1ST down Virginia Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
38.8%
Caziah Holmes run for 16 yds to the UVA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
38.0%
Caziah Holmes run for 16 yds to the UVA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-9
38.4%
Tommy Castellanos pass intercepted Ja'son Prevard return for 9 yds to the UVA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7TD
17 plays · 81 yds · 6:4845% → 61%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
44.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 10 yds to the UVA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
45.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Eli Wood for 8 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+6
45.3%
Xavier Brown run for 6 yds to the UVA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
46.0%
Xavier Brown run for 3 yds to the UVA 46Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
46.7%
Xavier Brown run for 8 yds to the FSU 46 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Earl Little Jr.) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
47.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to J'Mari Taylor for 6 yds to the FSU 40Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+7
47.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to J'Mari Taylor for 7 yds to the FSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-8
47.9%
Chandler Morris sacked by Ashlynd Barker for a loss of 8 yards to the FSU 41Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 18
OPP 41
+21
48.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 21 yds to the FSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
49.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the FSU 16Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-5
49.8%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Wigenton,Kevin) 5 yards from FSU16 to FSU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+10
50.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 10 yds to the FSU 11Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+4
50.1%
J'Mari Taylor run for 4 yds to the FSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
51.7%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Dakota TwittySimilar
Q2 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
51.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 4 yds to the FSU 11Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
61.4%
Chandler Morris run for 11 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4546% → 52%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
54.5%
Tommy Castellanos run for 7 yds to the FSU 32Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
54.1%
Ousmane Kromah run for 8 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
54.4%
Ousmane Kromah run for 4 yds to the FSU 44Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+47
54.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 47 yds to the UVA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
53.0%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 6 yds to the UVA 3Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
53.7%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the UVA 2Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
47.6%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-16
55.9%
Chandler Morris pass intercepted Edwin Joseph return for 16 yds to the UVA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:0251% → 64%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
48.6%
Ousmane Kromah run for no gain to the UVA 27Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
49.6%
Jaylin Lucas run for 9 yds to the UVA 18Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+16
52.2%
Tommy Castellanos run for 16 yds to the UVA 2 Tommy Castellanos fumbled, recovered by FSU for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
35.7%
Randy Pittman Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:4742% → 44%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
42.2%
J'Mari Taylor run for 2 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
42.4%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Dakota TwittySimilar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
41.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 9 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
43.5%
Chandler Morris pass intercepted Elijah Herring return for 15 yds to the UVA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:5263% → 69%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
37.5%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 6 yds to the UVA 39Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+3
37.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Squirrel White for 3 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+3
38.2%
Tommy Castellanos run for 3 yds to the UVA 39Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+6
39.4%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 6 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+29
36.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 24 yds to the UVA 9 for a 1ST down Virginia Penalty, Targeting (Antonio Clary) to the UVA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
30.7%
Tommy Castellanos run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:3435% → 49%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 8 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
38.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to J'Mari Taylor for 3 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
37.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 5 yds to the UVA 41Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
38.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 5 yds to the UVA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
38.8%
J'Mari Taylor run for no gain to the UVA 46Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+28
37.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 28 yds to the FSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
48.6%
J'Mari Taylor run for 26 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:4257% → 59%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
42.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 7 yds to the FSU 32Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
41.6%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
43.6%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 4 yds to the FSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
42.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the FSU 41Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
40.4%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+4
40.8%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 4 yds to the FSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15MISSED FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:5259% → 58%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
41.0%
Gavin Sawchuk run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 24Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
41.5%
Tommy Castellanos run for 3 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
42.5%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 10 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
40.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the FSU 38Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
40.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Squirrel White for 8 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
39.5%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the FSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
39.5%
Ousmane Kromah run for 23 yds to the UVA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
38.1%
Ousmane Kromah run for 5 yds to the UVA 25Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
38.0%
Tommy Castellanos run for no gain to the UVA 25Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-1
39.5%
Tommy Castellanos run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 26Similar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+45
42.3%
Jake Weinberg 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:0646% → 72%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
46.2%
J'Mari Taylor run for 4 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+2
46.6%
J'Mari Taylor run for 2 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+8
45.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 8 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
49.5%
J'Mari Taylor run for 6 yds to the UVA 46Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
50.9%
Xavier Brown run for 9 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
52.1%
Xavier Brown run for 5 yds to the FSU 40Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+13
52.3%
Xavier Brown run for 13 yds to the FSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
53.6%
Xavier Brown run for 5 yds to the FSU 22Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+9
53.9%
J'Mari Taylor run for 9 yds to the FSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
53.9%
J'Mari Taylor run for 2 yds to the FSU 11Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+4
54.3%
J'Mari Taylor run for 4 yds to the FSU 7Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
71.7%
Chandler Morris run for 7 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2036% → 62%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.1%
Ousmane Kromah run for 6 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
62.8%
Ousmane Kromah run for 6 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+30
63.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 30 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
58.5%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 6 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+22
60.0%
Tommy Castellanos run for 22 yds to the UVA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
60.4%
Ousmane Kromah run for 1 yd to the UVA 4Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
37.7%
Randy Pittman Jr. pass complete to Duce Robinson for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 7:5147% → 91%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.4%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Trell HarrisSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
47.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Eli Wood for 21 yds to the UVA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
52.8%
Suderian Harrison pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
51.0%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 6
50
+3
51.9%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the FSU 47Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+14
48.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 14 yds to the FSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
54.7%
J'Mari Taylor run for 2 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-2
55.1%
J'Mari Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 33Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+9
52.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 9 yds to the FSU 24Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+3
50.9%
J'Mari Taylor run for 3 yds to the FSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
56.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the FSU 17Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-5
56.7%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Witmer,Jack) 5 yards from FSU17 to FSU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+8
56.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 8 yds to the FSU 14Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+3
54.7%
J'Mari Taylor run for 3 yds to the FSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
57.5%
J'Mari Taylor run for 3 yds to the FSU 8Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-7
57.8%
Chandler Morris run for 3 yds Virginia Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cam Ross) to the FSU 15Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 14
OPP 15
+15
91.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Xavier Brown for 15 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19DOWNS
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:2818% → 17%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
82.5%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 30 yds to the UVA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
78.4%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
78.8%
Ousmane Kromah run for 2 yds to the UVA 43Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+6
80.7%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 6 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+6
82.8%
Tommy Castellanos run for 6 yds to the UVA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
79.0%
Tommy Castellanos sacked by Kam Robinson for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 33Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+10
80.5%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 10 yds to the UVA 23Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+1
81.8%
Ousmane Kromah run for 1 yd to the UVA 22Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
83.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Landen ThomasSimilar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
83.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Landen ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:1897% → 96%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
96.5%
J'Mari Taylor run for 1 yd to the UVA 23Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+6
96.4%
Chandler Morris run for 6 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
96.8%
J'Mari Taylor run for no gain to the UVA 29Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
96.4%
Elijah Slibeck punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 1:3214% → 51%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
85.6%
Tommy Castellanos run for 16 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+34
84.7%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 34 yds to the UVA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
78.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 4 yds to the UVA 13Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+6
78.7%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 6 yds to the UVA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
78.8%
Tommy Castellanos sacked by Daniel Rickert for a loss of 4 yards to the UVA 11Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
80.4%
Tommy Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
84.4%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q4 0:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
49.5%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:1431% → 34%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.5%
J'Mari Taylor run for no gain to the UVA 25Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
29.6%
Chandler Morris run for 16 yds to the UVA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
34.3%
Chandler Morris pass intercepted Ja'Bril Rawls return for no gain to the FSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
44.0%
(00:09) Kneel down by Florida St. at FSU28 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0060% → 73%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
39.9%
O.Kromah rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by F.Camac at UVA 23.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
39.9%
O.Kromah rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by K.Robinson; J.Robinson at UVA 18.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
42.4%
T.Castellanos steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for G.Sawchuk.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 18
0
26.6%
J.Weinberg 36 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-M.Arnold, Holder-M.Chiumento.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0038% → 61%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
37.8%
J.Taylor rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Williams; D.McCray at FSU 22.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
37.8%
J.Taylor rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by S.Brown; D.McCray at FSU 22.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
31.8%
C.Morris steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for D.Twitty.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 22
0
61.3%
W.Bettridge 39 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-B.Robinson, Holder-D.Sparks.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0068% → 94%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
67.5%
C.Morris pass complete. Catch made by C.Ross for 6 yards. Tackled by J.Wilson at FSU 19.Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+10
67.5%
X.Brown rushed for 10 yards. Tackled by E.Little at FSU 9.Similar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
67.5%
X.Brown rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by E.Herring; D.McCray at FSU 8.Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
67.5%
J.Taylor rushed for yards. Tackled by at FSU 5. PENALTY on FSU-FSU, Defensive Offside, 4 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.9%
C.Morris scrambles for 4 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27INT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0011% → 6%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
89.5%
T.Castellanos pass complete. Catch made by D.Robinson for 3 yards. Tackled by M.Melton; J.Robinson at UVA 22.Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
89.5%
T.Castellanos steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for R.Pittman.Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
91.4%
T.Castellanos pass complete. Catch made by D.Robinson for 22 yards. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion and the play was overturned. T.Castellanos steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for D.Robinson.Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 22
0
94.0%
PENALTY on FSU-G.Sawchuk, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 27
0
94.5%
T.Castellanos pass INTERCEPTED at UVA End Zone. Intercepted by J.Prevard at UVA End Zone. Touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · OT 0:00
W.Bettridge 39 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-B.Robinson, Holder-D.Sparks.
+36.1
TD · Q4 0:36
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
-34.9
TD · Q4 7:20
Chandler Morris pass complete to Xavier Brown for 15 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
+33.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com