2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:50 · Aidan Birr 32 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:38: Haynes King pass complete to Isiah Canion for 37 yds for a TD — GT win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:29: Jay Ducker run for 2 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK) — TEM win probability +2.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:53: Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 28 yds for a TD — TEM win probability +5.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:47: Malachi Hosley run for 34 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +3.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:56: Malachi Hosley run for 2 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +4.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TEM made the numbers' call on 14 of 16
- Q1 13:56TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.7%average punt
- Q1 9:26TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q1 9:26TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q1 5:01TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q2 12:29TEM 4th & 2 at GT 2, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.7%48% to convertField goal4.3%−0.494% to makePunt2.9%−1.8average punt
- Q2 11:09GT 4th & 5 at GT 30, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snapGo for it92.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.9%average punt
- Q2 11:09GT 4th & 5 at GT 30, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snapGo for it92.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.9%average punt
- Q2 6:54TEM 4th & 14 at TEM 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.518% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q2 6:54TEM 4th & 14 at TEM 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.518% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q2 4:37GT 4th & 7 at GT 35, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snapGo for it92.1%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.5%average punt
- Q2 3:08TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it7.4%−0.339% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.7%average punt
- Q2 1:52GT 4th & 19 at GT 18, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snapGo for it91.5%−1.110% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.7%average punt
- Q2 1:52GT 4th & 19 at GT 18, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snapGo for it91.5%−1.110% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.7%average punt
- Q2 0:27TEM 4th & 1 at GT 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.8%70% to convertField goal7.6%−0.225% to makePunt7.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 0:00TEM 4th & 10 at GT 43, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call6.9%−0.428% to makePunt7.3%average punt
- Q2 0:00TEM 4th & 10 at GT 43, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call6.9%−0.428% to makePunt7.3%average punt
- Q3 10:33TEM 4th & 21 at TEM 14, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it5.8%−1.48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q3 9:08GT 4th & 13 at GT 44, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snapGo for it92.6%−1.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.7%average punt
- Q3 5:37TEM 4th & 16 at TEM 16, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it5.9%−1.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q3 5:37TEM 4th & 16 at TEM 16, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it5.9%−1.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q4 13:06TEM 4th & 1 at GT 39, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%70% to convertField goal0.5%−0.636% to makePunt0.5%−0.6average punt
- Q4 13:06TEM 4th & 1 at GT 39, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%70% to convertField goal0.5%−0.636% to makePunt0.5%−0.6average punt
- Q4 8:50GT 4th & 4 at TEM 15, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%46% to convertField goalTheir call99.0%−<0.183% to makePunt98.2%−0.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:37GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.1%97% to makeGo for two93.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:37GT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:38GT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:29TEM Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.0%97% to makeGo for two6.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:53TEM Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.8%97% to makeGo for two10.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:47GT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:56GT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:504% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2TD5 plays · 71 yds · 2:0596% → 96%
TEMDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 2:065% → 5%
Q1 10:53
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
95.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 4 yds to the TEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
95.2%
Dante Atton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 37Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
95.2%
Dante Atton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4TD5 plays · 63 yds · 1:4195% → 96%
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
95.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 9 yds to the GT 46Similar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
95.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Rivers for 14 yds to the TEM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
95.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 24 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 2:225% → 5%
Q1 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
95.4%
PENALTY TU False Start (King,Eric) 5 yards from TU28 to TU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+10
95.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 10 yds to the TEM 30Similar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
95.3%
Dante Atton punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:1796% → 97%
Q1 3:02
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+11
95.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 11 yds to the TEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:044% → 5%
Q1 1:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+18
96.5%
Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 18 yds to the TEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 1:0595% → 95%
Q2 11:35
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+7
95.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Isiah Canion for 7 yds to the GT 30Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+37
95.0%
Marshall Nichols punt for 64 yds , JoJo Bermudez returns for 37 yds to the TEM 5Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+37
95.0%
Marshall Nichols punt for 64 yds , JoJo Bermudez returns for 37 yds to the TEM 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 25 yds · 4:015% → 5%
Q2 10:13
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+15
94.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Jay Ducker for 15 yds to the TEM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
94.8%
Dante Atton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 32Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
94.8%
Dante Atton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0395% → 95%
Q2 6:19
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-5
95.1%
(06:11) PENALTY GT Illegal Snap (Moore,Harrison) 5 yards from GT38 to GT33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-5
94.9%
(05:50) No Huddle-Shotgun King,Haynes pass complete short right to Hosley,Malachi caught at GT34, for 5 yards to the GT38 (Greene,Conlan) PENALTY GT Illegal Formation 5 yards from GT33 to GT28. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:266% → 6%
GTDrive 12PUNT6 plays · -9 yds · 1:0495% → 95%
Q2 1:54
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-9
94.8%
Haynes King sacked by Cam'Ron Stewart for a loss of 9 yards to the GT 18Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 19
OWN 18
0
94.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 48 yds, fair catch by JoJo Bermudez at the TEM 34Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 19
OWN 18
0
94.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 48 yds, fair catch by JoJo Bermudez at the TEM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13MISSED FG15 plays · 23 yds · 1:466% → 6%
Q2 1:01
3RD & 3
OWN 41
-10
93.9%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Worthy,Terrez rush right for 15 yards gain to the GT44 (Gilmore,Jy) PENALTY TU Holding (Clarke,Peter) 10 yards from TU41 to TU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 13
OWN 31
+15
94.5%
PENALTY GT UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Gilmore,Jy) 15 yards from TU31 to TU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14FUMBLE3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0495% → 95%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
94.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Brett Seither for 4 yds to the GT 34Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-3
94.7%
Haynes King run for a loss of 3 yards to the GT 31 Haynes King fumbled, recovered by TEM Eric StuartSimilar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-3
94.7%
Haynes King run for a loss of 3 yards to the GT 31 Haynes King fumbled, recovered by TEM Eric StuartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15TD2 plays · 31 yds · 0:277% → 12%
GTDrive 16TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5090% → 95%
Q3 12:11
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+15
91.0%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun King,Haynes rush right for 5 yards loss to the GT46 (Beckwith,Aaron) PENALTY TU Face Mask (Haye, Jr.,Allan) 15 yards from TU49 to TU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17PUNT6 plays · -11 yds · 1:116% → 6%
Q3 10:33
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
94.4%
Dante Atton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1795% → 94%
TEMDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 3:266% → 6%
Q3 8:12
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+20
94.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 20 yds to the TEM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 12
OWN 20
-4
94.1%
Evan Simon sacked by Ronald Triplette for a loss of 4 yards to the TEM 16Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 16
OWN 16
+14
94.1%
Dante Atton punt for 42 yds , Eric Rivers returns for 14 yds to the GT 32Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 16
OWN 16
+14
94.1%
Dante Atton punt for 42 yds , Eric Rivers returns for 14 yds to the GT 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20TD6 plays · 68 yds · 2:2595% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21DOWNS12 plays · 36 yds · 4:312% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22FG9 plays · 46 yds · 4:0099% → 100%
Q4 12:33
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+5
99.3%
PENALTY TU Offside (Powell,Zyil) 5 yards from GT36 to GT41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+9
99.4%
Malik Rutherford run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+28
99.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 13 yds to the TEM 36 for a 1ST down Temple Penalty, (15 Yards) to the TEM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:53
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 28 yds for a TD
-5.4
TD · Q3 2:56
Malachi Hosley run for 2 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
+4
TD · Q3 11:47
Malachi Hosley run for 34 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
+3.9