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CAL

California 0 at San Diego State 34

SDSU
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Snapdragon Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:46 · Devin Brown sacked by Ryan Henderson for a loss of 12 yards to the SDSU 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Pregame prior−1.1Home team on offense+35.7Score differential+30.3Garbage-time factor+11.0Blowout margin+17.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:42: Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 6 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK) — SDSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 3:40: Lucky Sutton run for 7 yds to the SDSU 33 — CAL win probability +4.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Gabriel Plascencia 41 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:03: Dwayne McDougle 35 Yd Fumble Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick) — SDSU win probability +16.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:59: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass intercepted Chris Johnson return for 97 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK) — SDSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CAL made the numbers' call on 12 of 12
  1. Q1 13:01SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:37CAL 4th & 1 at SDSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.9%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:11CAL 4th & 1 at SDSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    75.6%−0.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:54CAL 4th & 2 at SDSU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    74.5%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:33SDSU 4th & 14 at SDSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:33SDSU 4th & 14 at SDSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:19CAL 4th & 13 at SDSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    71.7%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:04CAL 4th & 17 at CAL 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:04CAL 4th & 17 at CAL 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:20SDSU 4th & 10 at CAL 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:49CAL 4th & 19 at SDSU 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−2.4
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−5.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:04CAL 4th & 20 at CAL 10, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−2.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:41SDSU 4th & 9 at CAL 41, up 13
    Close callPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    66.9%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:03CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 29, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:28SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 36, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:28CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 33, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:22CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 26, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:06SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 32, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:46CAL 4th & 4 at SDSU 31, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 11:42SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:03SDSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:59SDSU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:20SDSU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:3818% → 19%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
18.4%
Lucky Sutton run for 11 yds to the SDSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
18.7%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jacob Bostick for 2 yds to the SDSU 25Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+6
18.9%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 6 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
19.1%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jordan NapierSimilar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
19.1%
Hunter Green punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the CAL 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2DOWNS
21 plays · 75 yds · 9:5781% → 76%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
19.3%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the CAL 26Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+8
19.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 8 yds to the CAL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
19.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mark Hamper for 1 yd to the CAL 35Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+5
19.9%
PENALTY SDSU Offside (Phillips,Bryce) 5 yards from Cal35 to Cal40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+2
19.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 42Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+7
20.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 7 yds to the CAL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
20.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mark HamperSimilar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+19
20.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 19 yds to the SDSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
20.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
20.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for no gain to the SDSU 29Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+6
21.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 6 yds to the SDSU 23Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+3
21.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
21.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the SDSU 18Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+6
21.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 6 yds to the SDSU 12Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+1
22.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the SDSU 11Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
22.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the SDSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
22.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the SDSU 7Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
22.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 6 yds to the SDSU 1Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
23.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSU 2Similar
Q1 2:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
24.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Landon MorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:1225% → 25%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+10
24.9%
Lucky Sutton run for 10 yds to the SDSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
25.3%
Lucky Sutton run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSU 11Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 11
OWN 11
-9
25.7%
Jayden Denegal sacked by Cam Sidney for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSU 2Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 20
OWN 2
+6
25.0%
Lucky Sutton run for 6 yds to the SDSU 8Similar
Q1 0:33
4TH & 14
OWN 8
+15
25.1%
Hunter Green punt for 49 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 15 yds to the SDSU 42Similar
Q1 0:33
4TH & 14
OWN 8
+15
25.1%
Hunter Green punt for 49 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 15 yds to the CAL 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:0375% → 73%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
24.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mark HamperSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
25.3%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the CAL 39Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+22
25.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 7 yds to the SDSU 46 for a 1ST down San Diego State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the SDSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
24.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
24.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the SDSU 34Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-8
24.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Trey White for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSU 42Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
26.9%
Michael Kern punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:2828% → 36%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
27.5%
(13:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Denegal,Jayden rush middle for 14 yards gain to the SDSU34 (Manutai,Aiden) PENALTY SDSU Holding (Borjon,Joseph) 10 yards from SDSU20 to SDSU10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+80
27.8%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 80 yds to the CAL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
30.2%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jacob Bostick for 4 yds to the CAL 6Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
35.6%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 6 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · -7 yds · 1:3166% → 61%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.0%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
36.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
36.9%
(10:52) PENALTY Cal False Start (Vatikani,Sioape) 5 yards from Cal27 to Cal22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-4
37.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by August Salvati for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 18Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+22
38.7%
Michael Kern punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CAL 41 , Eric Butler returns for 22 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+22
38.7%
Michael Kern punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CAL 41 , Eric Butler returns for 22 yds to the CAL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:2438% → 43%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
38.2%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Christian Washington for 11 yds to the CAL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
39.0%
Christian Washington run for 8 yds to the CAL 22Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+6
39.5%
Christian Washington run for 6 yds to the CAL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
40.0%
Christian Washington run for 4 yds to the CAL 12Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 6
OPP 12
-15
41.1%
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Denegal,Jayden pass complete short right to Bostick,Jacob caught at Cal06, for 6 yards to the Cal06 (Crosby,Isaiah) PENALTY SDSU Pass Interference (Acevedo,Nathan) 15 yards from Cal12 to Cal27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 21
OPP 27
+7
40.8%
Christian Washington run for 7 yds to the CAL 20Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 14
OPP 20
+4
40.6%
Christian Washington run for 4 yds to the CAL 16Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
42.9%
Gabriel Plascencia 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8MISSED FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 2:1554% → 49%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 4 yds to the CAL 29Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+21
47.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mark Hamper for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
50
0
45.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to LJ Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 10
50
+33
46.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 33 yds to the SDSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
44.0%
Brandon High Jr. run for 1 yd to the SDSU 16Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
45.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-5
46.9%
(04:01) PENALTY Cal False Start (Vatikani,Sioape) 5 yards from SDSU16 to SDSU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 14
OPP 21
-5
48.8%
(03:59) PENALTY Cal False Start (King,Jordan) 5 yards from SDSU21 to SDSU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 19
OPP 26
0
49.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 19
OPP 26
+44
51.0%
Chase Meyer 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 3:4047% → 64%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
47.0%
Lucky Sutton run for 7 yds to the SDSU 33Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
48.7%
Lucky Sutton run for 2 yds to the SDSU 35Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+5
49.3%
Lucky Sutton run for 5 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
51.5%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jacob Bostick for 19 yds to the CAL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
52.0%
Jayden Denegal run for 16 yds to the CAL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
53.0%
Jayden Denegal pass intercepted Isaiah Crosby return for no gain to the CAL 0Similar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
53.0%
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Denegal,Jayden pass intercepted by Crosby,Isaiah at Cal00, End Of Play PENALTY Cal Offside 5 yards from Cal25 to Cal20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 5
OPP 20
+3
54.8%
Jordan Napier run for 3 yds to the CAL 17Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+5
55.4%
Lucky Sutton run for 5 yds to the CAL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
55.7%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Acevedo,Nathan rush right for 1 yard gain to the Cal11 (Uluave,Cade) PENALTY SDSU Holding 10 yards from Cal12 to Cal22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 20
OPP 22
-1
55.5%
Jayden Denegal run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 23Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 21
OPP 23
+41
63.7%
Gabriel Plascencia 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:4541% → 38%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
59.2%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Sagapolutele,Jaron-Keawe pass complete short middle to Grizzell,Trond caught at Cal23, for 3 yards to the Cal23 (Buxton,Isaiah) PENALTY Cal Holding (Bell,Leon) 10 yards from Cal20 to Cal10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
59.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 20
OWN 10
0
60.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 20
OWN 10
0
61.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q3 14:04
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
61.8%
Michael Kern punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jordan Napier at the CAL 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:1665% → 67%
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
65.3%
(14:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Sutton,Lucky rush left for 3 yards gain to the Cal39 (Crosby,Isaiah; Bollers,T.J.) PENALTY SDSU Holding (Adams,Seth) 10 yards from Cal42 to SDSU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+9
65.4%
Lucky Sutton run for 9 yds to the CAL 43Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-1
67.3%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jackson Ford for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 44Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+3
67.3%
Jayden Denegal run for 3 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
66.9%
Hunter Green punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 31 yds · 0:1933% → 16%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+24
67.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 24 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+35
83.6%
Dwayne McDougle 35 Yd Fumble Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5516% → 13%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to LJ Johnson Jr.Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
84.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mark Hamper for 4 yds to the CAL 29Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
86.9%
Michael Kern punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2988% → 89%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
88.3%
Lucky Sutton run for 2 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
89.1%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jacob Bostick for 4 yds to the SDSU 36Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
89.3%
Jayden Denegal pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+8
88.9%
Hunter Green punt for 45 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 8 yds to the CAL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15INT TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:0511% → 2%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
89.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 16 yds to the CAL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
88.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jaiven PlummerSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
89.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+26
89.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 26 yds to the SDSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
88.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+9
88.8%
Brandon High Jr. run for 9 yds to the SDSU 22Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
89.5%
Brandon High Jr. run for 2 yds to the SDSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-97
98.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass intercepted Chris Johnson return for 97 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:491% → 1%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
98.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 6 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
98.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass intercepted Dalesean Staley return for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:4099% → 99%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
98.9%
Christian Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSU 42Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-10
99.0%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Washington,Christian rush left for 11 yards gain to the Cal47 (Polidore Jr.,Dru) PENALTY SDSU Holding 10 yards from SDSU42 to SDSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 19
OWN 32
+12
99.1%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 12 yds to the SDSU 44Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
99.3%
Hunter Green punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the CAL 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:551% → 0%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
99.4%
Brandon High Jr. run for 3 yds to the CAL 9Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+2
99.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mark Hamper for 2 yds to the CAL 11Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+22
99.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 22 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason MiniSimilar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
99.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:31
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
99.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Hezekiah MassesSimilar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
99.7%
Michael Kern punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Napier at the SDSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 5:40100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
99.5%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 8 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+10
99.5%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 10 yds to the SDSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
99.6%
Christian Washington run for 10 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
99.6%
Christian Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSU 49Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+4
99.6%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 4 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+11
99.7%
Christian Washington run for 11 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.7%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Christian WashingtonSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
99.7%
Jordan Napier run for 3 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+8
99.7%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 8 yds to the CAL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
99.7%
Lucky Sutton run for 2 yds to the CAL 23Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+20
99.8%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 20 yds to the CAL 3 for a 1ST down California Penalty, Defensive Offside (Cade Uluave) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
99.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the CAL 28Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-2
99.9%
Devin Brown sacked by August Salvati for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 26Similar
Q4 7:22
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Michael Kern punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Mikey Welsh at the SDSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for no gain to the SDSU 26Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 5 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 1 yd to the SDSU 32Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Hunter Green punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the CAL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:140% → 0%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Devin Brown pass incomplete to Kyion GrayesSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+16
99.9%
Devin Brown pass complete to QuaRon Adams for 16 yds to the SDSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
99.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the SDSU 33Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+2
99.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Devin Brown pass incomplete to Kyion GrayesSimilar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 4
OPP 31
-12
99.9%
Devin Brown sacked by Ryan Henderson for a loss of 12 yards to the SDSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.9%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 4 yds to the SDSU 47Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-1
100.0%
B. Emanuel Jr. takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-1
100.0%
B. Emanuel Jr. takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:03
Dwayne McDougle 35 Yd Fumble Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)
+16.2
TD · Q3 5:59
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass intercepted Chris Johnson return for 97 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
+8.9
FG · Q2 0:00
Gabriel Plascencia 41 yd FG GOOD
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com