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USF

South Florida 12 at Miami 49

MIA
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:08 · Byrum Brown pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 5 yds to the MIA 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Pregame prior+3.3Home team on offense+35.5Score differential+32.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.3Garbage-time factor+11.1Blowout margin+16.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:58: Carson Beck pass complete to Joshua Moore for 39 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK) — MIA win probability +2.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:58: Timeout Miami, clock 02:58 — USF win probability +1.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q1 0:26: Nico Gramatica 45 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +1.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:05: Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 38 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK) — MIA win probability +3.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:33: Carson Beck run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK) — MIA win probability +3.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 7:29USF 4th & 7 at USF 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:26USF 4th & 8 at MIA 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:45MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:16USF 4th & 8 at MIA 10, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:34USF 4th & 14 at USF 21, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:34USF 4th & 14 at USF 21, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:05MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 34, up 15
    Close callPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:59MIA 4th & 1 at USF 16, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%−0.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:42USF 4th & 2 at USF 33, down 22
    Close callPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:52USF 4th & 10 at USF 42, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:44USF 4th & 5 at USF 30, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:35MIA 4th & 6 at USF 49, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:08USF 4th & 3 at MIA 9, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    -0.9%−3.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:08USF 4th & 7 at MIA 48, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:08USF 4th & 7 at MIA 48, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7USF made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 9:34MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:58MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:05MIA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:33MIA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:35MIA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:48USF Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:04MIA Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:48MIA Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1988% → 88%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 15 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
88.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 43Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
88.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 4 yds to the MIA 47Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+6
87.8%
Carson Beck run for 6 yds to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
87.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 20 yds to the USF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
87.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the USF 23Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+13
87.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Tony Johnson for 13 yds to the USF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
87.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the USF 8Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
87.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Joshua Moore for 8 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:5613% → 13%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.5%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
87.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 4 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
87.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 5 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
87.3%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
87.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
87.4%
Chase Leon punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:2587% → 90%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
87.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the MIA 21Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 4
OWN 21
-5
87.4%
(06:49) PENALTY MIA False Start (Mauigoa,Francis) 5 yards from MIA21 to MIA16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
87.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 5 yds to the MIA 21Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+7
87.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 7 yds to the MIA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
87.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 17 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.4%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Keelan MarionSimilar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
87.3%
Keelan Marion run for 13 yds to the USF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
87.3%
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
87.2%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Ray Ray JosephSimilar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+39
89.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Joshua Moore for 39 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:1911% → 13%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 3 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
88.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian NeptuneSimilar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+43
88.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 43 yds to the MIA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
87.5%
Alvon Isaac run for 1 yd to the MIA 28Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-2
87.6%
Byrum Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 30Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+3
88.0%
Alvon Isaac run for 3 yds to the MIA 27Similar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+45
87.0%
Nico Gramatica 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1590% → 90%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.9%
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the MIA 28Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
89.8%
CharMar Brown run for no gain to the MIA 28Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
89.7%
Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
89.5%
Dylan Joyce punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Joshua Porter at the USF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:2412% → 13%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.1%
Sam Franklin run for 2 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
88.0%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
88.0%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the USF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+53
87.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 53 yds to the MIA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
86.7%
Sam Franklin run for 2 yds to the MIA 10Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
86.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
87.0%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+28
87.1%
Nico Gramatica 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0389% → 93%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
89.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 17 yds to the MIA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
89.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 20 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
93.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 38 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:2810% → 10%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.1%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian NeptuneSimilar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.1%
Nykahi Davenport run for 2 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
90.1%
Byrum Brown sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the USF 21Similar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
90.3%
Chase Leon punt for 51 yds , Malachi Toney returns for no gain to the MIA 25Similar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
90.3%
Chase Leon punt for 51 yds , Malachi Toney returns for no gain to the MIA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:2493% → 93%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 25Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 5 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
92.5%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Mauigoa,Francis) 5 yards from MIA30 to MIA25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.5%
Carson Beck run for 9 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
92.9%
Dylan Joyce punt for 47 yds , Joshua Porter returns for no gain to the USF 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:2310% → 10%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
90.1%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 21Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
90.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Keshaun SingletonSimilar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
90.4%
Byrum Brown pass intercepted Bryce Fitzgerald return for no gain to the USF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:5893% → 97%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
93.1%
CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the USF 21Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
92.9%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Alex BaumanSimilar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+5
92.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 5 yds to the USF 16Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+3
92.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the USF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
93.2%
Carson Beck run for 11 yds to the USF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.6%
Carson Beck run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:415% → 4%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 6 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
95.2%
Alvon Isaac run for 1 yd to the USF 32Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
95.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Alvon Isaac for 1 yd to the USF 33Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+21
95.9%
Chase Leon punt for 46 yds , Malachi Toney returns for 21 yds to the MIA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13INT
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:2097% → 97%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+27
96.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 27 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST down South Florida Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jarvis Lee) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-27
97.0%
Carson Beck pass intercepted Jarvis Lee return for 27 yds to the USF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:214% → 4%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
95.7%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Mudia ReubenSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
95.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
95.9%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
96.0%
Chase Leon punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:4697% → 97%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
97.2%
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the MIA 8Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+1
97.0%
CharMar Brown run for 1 yd to the MIA 9Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+8
97.0%
CharMar Brown run for 8 yds to the MIA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:084% → 4%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 5 yds to the USF 20Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
96.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 10 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
95.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian NeptuneSimilar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
96.0%
Chase Leon punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17INT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:1696% → 97%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
96.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 4 yds to the MIA 28Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+10
96.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 10 yds to the MIA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
96.7%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Marion,Keelan) 5 yards from MIA38 to MIA33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+15
96.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 15 yds to the MIA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
96.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 48Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
96.9%
Carson Beck pass intercepted James Chenault return for no gain to the USF 31Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
96.9%
Carson Beck pass intercepted James Chenault return for no gain to the USF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:144% → 4%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
95.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 15 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
96.3%
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the USF 46Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-4
96.3%
Nykahi Davenport run for a loss of 4 yards to the USF 42Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+6
96.4%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the MIA 47 Byrum Brown fumbled, recovered by MIA Chase SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1598% → 98%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
97.7%
CharMar Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 45Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+8
97.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 8 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+3
97.8%
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-5
97.6%
(07:51) PENALTY MIA False Start (Okunlola,Samson) 5 yards from USF44 to USF49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
97.6%
Dylan Joyce punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USF 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 82 yds · 3:203% → 2%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+28
96.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 13 yds to the USF 23 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Damari Brown) to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
96.5%
Alvon Isaac run for 5 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+30
96.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 30 yds to the MIA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
96.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Alvon Isaac for 9 yds to the MIA 18Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 1
OPP 18
0
96.5%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian NeptuneSimilar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+2
96.8%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the MIA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
96.6%
Byrum Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 19Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+9
96.9%
Alvon Isaac run for 9 yds to the MIA 10Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+1
97.0%
Alvon Isaac run for 1 yd to the MIA 9Similar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+1
97.6%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the MIA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 3:2699% → 100%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
99.0%
Girard Pringle Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 10Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+24
99.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 24 yds to the MIA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+36
99.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 36 yds to the USF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 4 yds to the USF 26Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+13
99.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 13 yds to the USF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 13 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:400% → 1%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
99.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sam Franklin for 7 yds to the USF 32 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (Armondo Blount) to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+26
99.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 26 yds to the MIA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
99.8%
Sam Franklin run for 1 yd to the MIA 26Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+7
99.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 7 yds to the MIA 19Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+5
99.8%
Sam Franklin run for 5 yds to the MIA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.8%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the MIA 12Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
99.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Jonathan EcholsSimilar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+12
99.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:35100% → 100%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
99.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 2 yds to the MIA 32Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+51
99.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Tony Johnson for 51 yds to the USF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
99.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the USF 14Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+4
99.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the USF 10Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+6
99.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the USF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
99.8%
PENALTY MIA False Start (McCoy,Matthew) 4 yards from USF01 to USF05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
99.8%
Carson Beck run for 4 yds to the USF 1Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
(07:22) Beck,Carson rush middle for 0 yards to the USF01 fumbled by Beck,Carson at USF03 recovered by MIA Fletcher Jr.,Mark at USF01, End Of Play PENALTY USF Delay Of Game. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to CharMar Brown for 1 yd for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:500% → 0%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Cartevious Norton run for 7 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+17
99.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 17 yds to the USF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian NeptuneSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-10
99.9%
Byrum Brown sacked by Booker Pickett for a loss of 10 yards to the USF 39Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 20
OWN 39
+13
100.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 13 yds to the MIA 48Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 7
OPP 48
+5
100.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 5 yds to the MIA 43Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 7
OPP 48
+5
100.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 5 yds to the MIA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
100.0%
Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIA 35Similar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 18
OWN 35
+15
100.0%
South Florida Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Cedrick Hawkins Jr.) to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
100.0%
Girard Pringle Jr. run for no gain to the USF 36Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+17
100.0%
Emory Williams pass complete to Luka Gilbert for 17 yds to the USF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
100.0%
Girard Pringle Jr. run for 4 yds to the USF 15Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+10
100.0%
Emory Williams run for 10 yds to the USF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Girard Pringle Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Gaston Moore pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 7 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
100.0%
Gaston Moore pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 4 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
100.0%
Gaston Moore pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 4 yds to the USF 40Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Gaston Moore pass incomplete to Kory PettigrewSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+3
100.0%
Gaston Moore pass complete to Joshua Porter for 3 yds to the USF 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:05
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 38 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q2 2:33
Carson Beck run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q1 2:58
Carson Beck pass complete to Joshua Moore for 39 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com