USF
South Florida 12 at Miami 49
MIA2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey play
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MIA · Drive 1TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Adam Zouagui kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
84.8%
0.0
Q1 14:53
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 15 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST down
86.9%
+2.1
Q1 14:25
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 43
86.6%
-0.2
Q1 13:41
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 4 yds to the MIA 47
86.6%
0.0
Q1 13:03
Carson Beck run for 6 yds to the USF 47 for a 1ST down
86.6%
0.0
Q1 12:21
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 20 yds to the USF 27 for a 1ST down
87.1%
+0.4
Q1 11:42
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the USF 23
87.3%
+0.2
Q1 11:00
Carson Beck pass complete to Tony Johnson for 13 yds to the USF 10 for a 1ST down
86.5%
-0.7
Q1 10:19
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the USF 8
86.5%
0.0
Q1 9:34
Carson Beck pass complete to Joshua Moore for 8 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
93.2%
+6.6
Q1 9:34
Timeout Miami, clock 09:34
82.8%
-10.4
USF · Drive 2PUNT · 8 plays · 14 yds
Q1 9:34
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
92.8%
+10.0
Q1 9:25
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 27
92.4%
-0.3
Q1 9:05
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 4 yds to the USF 31
92.4%
0.0
Q1 8:32
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 5 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST down
92.4%
-0.1
Q1 8:12
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas Nimrod
92.4%
0.0
Q1 8:03
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the USF 39
92.4%
0.0
Q1 7:37
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas Nimrod
92.2%
-0.2
Q1 7:29
Chase Leon punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIA 15
92.3%
+0.1
MIA · Drive 3TD · 12 plays · 85 yds
Q1 7:29
Timeout Miami, clock 07:29
93.8%
+1.5
Q1 7:23
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the MIA 21
93.8%
0.0
Q1 6:49
(06:49) PENALTY MIA False Start (Mauigoa,Francis) 5 yards from MIA21 to MIA16. NO PLAY.
93.8%
0.0
Q1 6:19
Carson Beck pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 5 yds to the MIA 21
93.3%
-0.4
Q1 5:34
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 7 yds to the MIA 28 for a 1ST down
93.2%
-0.1
Q1 5:00
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 17 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST down
93.2%
0.0
Q1 4:14
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Keelan Marion
93.5%
+0.3
Q1 4:04
Keelan Marion run for 13 yds to the USF 42 for a 1ST down
93.5%
0.0
Q1 3:28
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 39
93.5%
0.0
Q1 3:06
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Ray Ray Joseph
93.5%
0.0
Q1 2:58
Carson Beck pass complete to Joshua Moore for 39 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
98.2%
+4.7
Q1 2:58
Timeout Miami, clock 02:58
91.7%
-6.5
USF · Drive 4FG · 9 plays · 48 yds
Q1 2:58
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.9%
+7.2
Q1 2:45
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 3 yds to the USF 28
96.6%
-2.3
Q1 2:36
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian Neptune
96.5%
-0.1
Q1 2:24
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 43 yds to the MIA 29 for a 1ST down
96.5%
0.0
Q1 2:03
Alvon Isaac run for 1 yd to the MIA 28
96.3%
-0.2
Q1 1:29
Byrum Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 30
96.3%
0.0
Q1 1:01
Alvon Isaac run for 3 yds to the MIA 27
96.3%
0.0
Q1 0:31
Timeout Miami, clock 00:31
96.5%
+0.2
Q1 0:26
Nico Gramatica 45 yd FG GOOD
92.5%
-4.0
MIA · Drive 5PUNT · 5 plays · -1 yds
Q1 0:26
Adam Zouagui kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
92.7%
+0.3
Q1 0:00
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the MIA 28
97.8%
+5.0
Q2 14:53
CharMar Brown run for no gain to the MIA 28
97.7%
0.0
Q2 14:04
Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined
97.5%
-0.2
Q2 13:45
Dylan Joyce punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Joshua Porter at the USF 25
97.6%
0.0
USF · Drive 6FG · 9 plays · 65 yds
Q2 13:45
Timeout Miami, clock 13:45
92.5%
-5.1
Q2 13:40
Sam Franklin run for 2 yds to the USF 27
92.5%
0.0
Q2 13:13
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 29
92.6%
+0.1
Q2 12:33
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the USF 35 for a 1ST down
92.6%
0.0
Q2 11:56
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 53 yds to the MIA 12 for a 1ST down
92.5%
-0.1
Q2 11:46
Sam Franklin run for 2 yds to the MIA 10
92.1%
-0.4
Q2 11:24
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas Nimrod
92.0%
-0.1
Q2 11:20
Byrum Brown pass incomplete
92.0%
0.0
Q2 11:16
Nico Gramatica 28 yd FG GOOD
91.9%
0.0
MIA · Drive 7TD · 4 plays · 75 yds
Q2 11:16
Adam Zouagui kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
92.3%
+0.3
Q2 11:08
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 17 yds to the MIA 42 for a 1ST down
95.4%
+3.1
Q2 10:27
Carson Beck pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 20 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST down
95.4%
0.0
Q2 10:05
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 38 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
98.9%
+3.5
USF · Drive 8PUNT · 6 plays · -4 yds
Q2 10:05
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.9%
0.0
Q2 10:02
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian Neptune
96.7%
-2.2
Q2 9:55
Nykahi Davenport run for 2 yds to the USF 27
96.6%
0.0
Q2 9:26
Byrum Brown sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the USF 21
96.6%
0.0
Q2 8:34
Chase Leon punt for 51 yds , Malachi Toney returns for no gain to the MIA 25
96.6%
0.0
Q2 8:34
Chase Leon punt for 51 yds , Malachi Toney returns for no gain to the MIA 25
96.6%
0.0
MIA · Drive 9PUNT · 5 plays · 9 yds
Q2 8:29
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 25
98.9%
+2.3
Q2 7:50
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 5 yds to the MIA 30
98.9%
-0.1
Q2 7:18
PENALTY MIA False Start (Mauigoa,Francis) 5 yards from MIA30 to MIA25. NO PLAY.
98.9%
0.0
Q2 6:48
Carson Beck run for 9 yds to the MIA 34
98.9%
0.0
Q2 6:05
Dylan Joyce punt for 47 yds , Joshua Porter returns for no gain to the USF 19
98.9%
0.0
USF · Drive 10INT · 3 plays · 2 yds
Q2 5:59
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 21
96.6%
-2.3
Q2 5:40
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Keshaun Singleton
96.6%
0.0
Q2 5:36
Byrum Brown pass intercepted Bryce Fitzgerald return for no gain to the USF 25
96.6%
0.0
MIA · Drive 11TD · 6 plays · 25 yds
Q2 5:31
CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the USF 21
98.8%
+2.2
Q2 4:52
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Alex Bauman
98.8%
0.0
Q2 4:43
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 5 yds to the USF 16
98.9%
0.0
Q2 3:59
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the USF 13 for a 1ST down
98.9%
+0.1
Q2 3:18
Carson Beck run for 11 yds to the USF 2 for a 1ST down
99.0%
+0.1
Q2 2:33
Carson Beck run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
99.6%
+0.6
USF · Drive 12PUNT · 7 plays · 8 yds
Q2 2:33
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.6%
0.0
Q2 2:23
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 6 yds to the USF 31
99.1%
-0.5
Q2 2:09
Alvon Isaac run for 1 yd to the USF 32
99.1%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Miami, clock 02:00
99.1%
0.0
Q2 1:55
Byrum Brown pass complete to Alvon Isaac for 1 yd to the USF 33
99.1%
0.0
Q2 1:55
Timeout Miami, clock 01:55
99.1%
0.0
Q2 1:42
Chase Leon punt for 46 yds , Malachi Toney returns for 21 yds to the MIA 42
99.1%
0.0
MIA · Drive 13INT · 2 plays · 27 yds
Q2 1:36
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 27 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST down South Florida Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jarvis Lee) declined for a 1ST down
99.6%
+0.5
Q2 1:16
Carson Beck pass intercepted Jarvis Lee return for 27 yds to the USF 42
99.6%
0.0
USF · Drive 14PUNT · 4 plays · 0 yds
Q2 1:13
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Mudia Reuben
99.2%
-0.5
Q2 1:07
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas Nimrod
99.1%
0.0
Q2 1:01
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas Nimrod
99.1%
0.0
Q2 0:52
Chase Leon punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIA 6
99.1%
0.0
MIA · Drive 15END OF HALF · 4 plays · 11 yds
Q2 0:46
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the MIA 8
99.6%
+0.5
Q2 0:07
CharMar Brown run for 1 yd to the MIA 9
99.6%
-0.1
Q2 0:06
Timeout Miami, clock 00:06
99.6%
0.0
Q2 0:00
CharMar Brown run for 8 yds to the MIA 17 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
USF · Drive 16PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q3 15:00
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.4%
-0.2
Q3 14:52
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 5 yds to the USF 20
98.9%
-0.4
Q3 14:13
Byrum Brown pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 10 yds to the USF 30
99.0%
0.0
Q3 13:53
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian Neptune
99.0%
0.0
Q3 13:44
Chase Leon punt for 46 yds
99.0%
0.0
MIA · Drive 17INT · 9 plays · 24 yds
Q3 13:44
Timeout Miami, clock 13:44
99.4%
+0.4
Q3 13:37
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 4 yds to the MIA 28
99.4%
0.0
Q3 12:52
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 10 yds to the MIA 38 for a 1ST down
99.4%
+0.1
Q3 12:52
Timeout Miami, clock 12:52
99.6%
+0.1
Q3 12:42
PENALTY MIA False Start (Marion,Keelan) 5 yards from MIA38 to MIA33. NO PLAY.
99.6%
0.0
Q3 12:21
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 15 yds to the MIA 48 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 12:01
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 48
99.6%
0.0
Q3 11:21
Carson Beck pass intercepted James Chenault return for no gain to the USF 31
99.5%
0.0
Q3 11:21
Carson Beck pass intercepted James Chenault return for no gain to the USF 31
99.5%
0.0
USF · Drive 18FUMBLE · 4 plays · 22 yds
Q3 11:11
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 15 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST down
99.0%
-0.5
Q3 10:45
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the USF 46
99.1%
+0.1
Q3 10:20
Nykahi Davenport run for a loss of 4 yards to the USF 42
99.1%
0.0
Q3 9:57
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the MIA 47 Byrum Brown fumbled, recovered by MIA Chase Smith
99.1%
0.0
MIA · Drive 19PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q3 9:50
CharMar Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 45
99.7%
+0.6
Q3 9:10
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 8 yds to the USF 47
99.7%
0.0
Q3 8:32
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 44
99.7%
0.0
Q3 7:51
(07:51) PENALTY MIA False Start (Okunlola,Samson) 5 yards from USF44 to USF49. NO PLAY.
99.7%
0.0
Q3 7:35
Dylan Joyce punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USF 10
99.7%
0.0
USF · Drive 20DOWNS · 12 plays · 82 yds
Q3 7:35
Timeout Miami, clock 07:35
99.2%
-0.5
Q3 7:28
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 13 yds to the USF 23 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Damari Brown) to the USF 38 for a 1ST down
99.2%
0.0
Q3 7:13
Alvon Isaac run for 5 yds to the USF 43
99.2%
0.0
Q3 6:53
Byrum Brown pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 30 yds to the MIA 27 for a 1ST down
99.2%
0.0
Q3 6:26
Byrum Brown pass complete to Alvon Isaac for 9 yds to the MIA 18
99.2%
0.0
Q3 5:58
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian Neptune
99.2%
0.0
Q3 5:53
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the MIA 16 for a 1ST down
99.2%
0.0
Q3 5:20
Byrum Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 19
99.2%
0.0
Q3 4:46
Alvon Isaac run for 9 yds to the MIA 10
99.3%
+0.1
Q3 4:29
Alvon Isaac run for 1 yd to the MIA 9
99.3%
0.0
Q3 4:12
Timeout Miami, clock 04:12
99.4%
+0.1
Q3 4:08
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the MIA 8
99.4%
0.0
MIA · Drive 21TD · 6 plays · 91 yds
Q3 4:01
Girard Pringle Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 10
99.8%
+0.4
Q3 3:17
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 24 yds to the MIA 34 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q3 2:41
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 36 yds to the USF 30 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q3 2:02
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 4 yds to the USF 26
99.8%
0.0
Q3 1:21
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 13 yds to the USF 13 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q3 0:35
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 13 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
99.8%
0.0
USF · Drive 22TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q3 0:35
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.8%
0.0
Q3 0:28
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sam Franklin for 7 yds to the USF 32 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (Armondo Blount) to the USF 47 for a 1ST down
99.6%
-0.3
Q3 0:00
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 26 yds to the MIA 27 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q4 14:52
Sam Franklin run for 1 yd to the MIA 26
99.6%
0.0
Q4 14:21
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 7 yds to the MIA 19
99.6%
0.0
Q4 14:07
Sam Franklin run for 5 yds to the MIA 14 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q4 13:34
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the MIA 12
99.6%
0.0
Q4 12:54
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Jonathan Echols
99.6%
0.0
Q4 12:54
Timeout Miami, clock 12:54
99.6%
0.0
Q4 12:48
Byrum Brown pass complete to Christian Neptune for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
99.4%
-0.2
MIA · Drive 23TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q4 12:48
Adam Zouagui kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.4%
0.0
Q4 12:39
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the MIA 30
99.9%
+0.5
Q4 12:01
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 2 yds to the MIA 32
99.9%
0.0
Q4 11:14
Carson Beck pass complete to Tony Johnson for 51 yds to the USF 17 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q4 10:39
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the USF 14
99.8%
0.0
Q4 10:00
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the USF 10
99.8%
0.0
Q4 9:20
Timeout Miami, clock 09:20
99.8%
0.0
Q4 9:13
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the USF 4 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q4 8:15
PENALTY MIA False Start (McCoy,Matthew) 4 yards from USF01 to USF05. NO PLAY.
99.8%
0.0
Q4 7:55
Carson Beck run for 4 yds to the USF 1
99.8%
0.0
Q4 7:22
(07:22) Beck,Carson rush middle for 0 yards to the USF01 fumbled by Beck,Carson at USF03 recovered by MIA Fletcher Jr.,Mark at USF01, End Of Play PENALTY USF Delay Of Game. NO PLAY.
99.8%
0.0
Q4 7:04
Carson Beck pass complete to CharMar Brown for 1 yd for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
99.8%
0.0
Q4 7:04
Timeout Miami, clock 07:04
99.4%
-0.4
USF · Drive 24DOWNS · 9 plays · 32 yds
Q4 7:04
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.9%
+0.4
Q4 6:58
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Chas Nimrod
99.6%
-0.2
Q4 6:47
Cartevious Norton run for 7 yds to the USF 32
99.6%
0.0
Q4 6:07
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 17 yds to the USF 49 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q4 5:46
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Christian Neptune
99.6%
0.0
Q4 5:40
Byrum Brown sacked by Booker Pickett for a loss of 10 yards to the USF 39
99.6%
0.0
Q4 4:56
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 13 yds to the MIA 48
99.6%
0.0
Q4 4:08
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 5 yds to the MIA 43
99.6%
0.0
Q4 4:08
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 5 yds to the MIA 43
99.6%
0.0
MIA · Drive 25TD · 8 plays · 57 yds
Q4 4:03
Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIA 35
99.9%
+0.2
Q4 3:37
South Florida Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Cedrick Hawkins Jr.) to the USF 36 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 3:10
Girard Pringle Jr. run for no gain to the USF 36
99.9%
0.0
Q4 2:37
Emory Williams pass complete to Luka Gilbert for 17 yds to the USF 19 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 2:03
Girard Pringle Jr. run for 4 yds to the USF 15
99.9%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Miami, clock 02:00
99.8%
0.0
Q4 1:54
Emory Williams run for 10 yds to the USF 5 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q4 1:48
Girard Pringle Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
99.8%
0.0
USF · Drive 26END OF GAME · 6 plays · 18 yds
Q4 1:48
Bert Auburn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.8%
0.0
Q4 1:36
Gaston Moore pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 7 yds to the USF 32
99.7%
-0.2
Q4 1:19
Gaston Moore pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 4 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:04
Gaston Moore pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 4 yds to the USF 40
99.7%
0.0
Q4 0:40
Gaston Moore pass incomplete to Kory Pettigrew
99.7%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Gaston Moore pass complete to Joshua Porter for 3 yds to the USF 43
99.7%
0.0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q1 9:34
Timeout Miami, clock 09:34
-10.4
KEY PLAY · Q1 9:34
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+10
KEY PLAY · Q1 2:58
Carter Davis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+7.2