Try the model
DUKE

Duke 27 at Tulane 34

TULN
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Yulman Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:09 · Alec Clark punt for 59 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Home team on offense+5.5Score differential+1.2Garbage-time factor+2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Pregame prior−2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:00: Jake Retzlaff run for 20 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK) — TULN win probability +8.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:54: Patrick Durkin 29 yd FG GOOD — TULN win probability +10.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:18: Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — DUKE win probability +11.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:46: Darian Mensah pass complete to Landen King for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +9.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:06: Todd Pelino 47 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +11.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6DUKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 14:04DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:35DUKE 4th & 15 at TULN 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 5 at TULN 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−5.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:09TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 41, up 11
    Close callPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:14DUKE 4th & 7 at TULN 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    34.1%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:14DUKE 4th & 7 at TULN 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    34.1%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:54TULN 4th & 11 at DUKE 11, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−6.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:35TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 45, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.7%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:04DUKE 4th & 7 at TULN 24, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−5.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:04DUKE 4th & 7 at TULN 24, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−5.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:12TULN 4th & 9 at DUKE 9, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−6.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:11DUKE 4th & 2 at TULN 45, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−1.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:11DUKE 4th & 2 at TULN 45, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−1.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:31TULN 4th & 1 at DUKE 30, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:56DUKE 4th & 13 at TULN 34, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:28TULN 4th & 5 at DUKE 42, up 10
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    93.4%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:50TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:56TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:00TULN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:18DUKE Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:46DUKE Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:31TULN Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:57DUKE Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5154% → 53%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.5%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper BarkateSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
46.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the DUKE 26Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
46.7%
Darian Mensah pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
46.8%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TULN 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:4647% → 50%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
46.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 11 yds to the TULN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
47.1%
Zuberi Mobley run for 2 yds to the TULN 49Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+13
47.3%
Jake Retzlaff run for 13 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
47.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Omari Hayes for 13 yds to the DUKE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
48.0%
Arnold Barnes III run for 6 yds to the DUKE 19Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
49.6%
Jake Retzlaff run for 19 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:0451% → 49%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
48.8%
Jaquez Moore run for 7 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+32
48.9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 17 yds to the TULN 36 for a 1ST down Tulane Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Santana Hopper) to the TULN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
48.8%
Jaquez Moore run for 9 yds to the TULN 12Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 1
OPP 12
-4
49.0%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the TULN 16Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
49.6%
Darian Mensah pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 5
OPP 16
-5
50.0%
PENALTY DUK False Start (Taylor,Jake) 5 yards from TLN16 to TLN21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 10
OPP 21
-5
50.3%
PENALTY DUK False Start (Pickett,Justin) 5 yards from TLN21 to TLN26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 15
OPP 26
+44
50.6%
Todd Pelino 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 5:2651% → 60%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
50.7%
Javin Gordon run for 14 yds to the TULN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
51.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Zycarl Lewis Jr. for 13 yds to the DUKE 47 Tulane Penalty, Personal Foul (Jimmy Calloway) to the TULN 38Similar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 12
OWN 38
+29
51.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Anthony Brown-Stephens for 14 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Wesley Williams) to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
52.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Javin Gordon for 15 yds to the DUKE 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
52.9%
Zuberi Mobley run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 20Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+3
53.3%
Tulane Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+14
53.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 14 yds to the DUKE 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
54.3%
Jake Retzlaff run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 6Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
54.8%
Javin Gordon run for no gain to the DUKE 6Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
60.3%
Jake Retzlaff run for 6 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 2:4641% → 44%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.7%
Nate Sheppard run for 4 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+30
58.5%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 30 yds to the TULN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
58.3%
Nate Sheppard run for 12 yds to the TULN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
57.8%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper BarkateSimilar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+13
58.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 13 yds to the TULN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
58.2%
Peyton Jones run for 5 yds to the TULN 11Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
58.6%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper BarkateSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
59.4%
Peyton Jones run for no gain to the TULN 11Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
56.4%
Todd Pelino 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5158% → 60%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
58.4%
Arnold Barnes III run for 2 yds to the TULN 37Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
58.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+4
60.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Shazz Preston for 4 yds to the TULN 41Similar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
60.4%
Alec Clark punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7DOWNS
12 plays · 41 yds · 2:4140% → 38%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
59.6%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Jaquez MooreSimilar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
59.9%
Darian Mensah run for 2 yds to the DUKE 22Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+8
60.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 8 yds to the DUKE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
59.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the DUKE 31Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
60.4%
Anderson Castle run for 5 yds to the DUKE 36Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+15
60.3%
(10:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Mensah,Darian pass incomplete deep left to Anthony,Andrel thrown to TLN40 PENALTY TLN Pass Interference (Green,LJ) 15 yards from DUK36 to TLN49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
59.1%
Anderson Castle run for 13 yds to the TULN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
59.2%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the TULN 33Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
58.2%
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the TULN 33Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
60.1%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper BarkateSimilar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+6
61.9%
run for 6 yds to the TULN 39 fumbled, recovered by DUKE Caleb DorrisSimilar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+6
61.9%
run for 6 yds to the TULN 39 fumbled, recovered by DUKE Caleb DorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:3565% → 76%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
65.1%
Zuberi Mobley run for 4 yds to the TULN 43Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
65.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Anthony Brown-Stephens for 3 yds to the TULN 46Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+6
65.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Zuberi Mobley for 6 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
66.8%
Javin Gordon run for no gain to the DUKE 48Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+28
66.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Shazz Preston for 28 yds to the DUKE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
75.7%
Jake Retzlaff run for 20 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9INT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:0525% → 23%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
74.8%
Nate Sheppard run for 11 yds to the DUKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
74.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 35Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-10
75.6%
(05:15) No Huddle-Shotgun Sheppard,Nate rush middle for 19 yards gain to the TLN46 (Johnson,Jahiem) PENALTY DUK Holding (Craycraft,Matt) 10 yards from DUK35 to DUK25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 21
OWN 25
-5
76.7%
(04:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Mensah,Darian pass complete short right to Brown,Que'Sean caught at DUK22, for 3 yards to the DUK28 (Rodgers,Chris) PENALTY DUK Illegal Shift 5 yards from DUK25 to DUK20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 26
OWN 20
-1
77.2%
Darian Mensah pass intercepted Javion White return for 1 yd to the DUKE 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:3079% → 89%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+26
78.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Omari Hayes for 26 yds to the DUKE 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
78.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Justyn ReidSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
78.9%
Jake Retzlaff run for 2 yds to the DUKE 8Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
77.4%
Jimmy Calloway run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 11Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
89.1%
Patrick Durkin 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:3213% → 27%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Anderson Castle for 4 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
86.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Anderson Castle for 10 yds to the DUKE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
86.1%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Anderson CastleSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
86.2%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Que'Sean BrownSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+14
87.0%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 14 yds to the TULN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
85.6%
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Mensah,Darian pass complete short left to Anthony,Andrel caught at TLN45, for 2 yards to the TLN45 (Shine,E'zaiah) PENALTY TLN Holding (Rodgers,Chris) 10 yards from TLN47 to TLN37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
85.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Anderson Castle for 12 yds to the TULN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
84.2%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Anderson Castle for 4 yds to the TULN 29Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+29
72.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
78.9%
J. Retzlaff takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 30 yds · 0:4679% → 79%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
78.6%
Jake Retzlaff run for 1 yd to the TULN 13Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
79.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Zycarl Lewis Jr.Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+29
78.7%
Jake Retzlaff run for 29 yds to the TULN 42 Jake Retzlaff fumbled, recovered by DUKE Nick Morris Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 2:0125% → 34%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
75.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 15 yds to the TULN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+22
74.1%
Jaquez Moore run for 22 yds to the TULN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
74.4%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the TULN 9Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
74.9%
Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the TULN 3Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Landen King for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1171% → 85%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Johnny PascuzziSimilar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
70.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Johnny PascuzziSimilar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
69.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Arnold Barnes III for 12 yds to the TULN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
72.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Justyn ReidSimilar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
71.9%
Javin Gordon run for no gain to the TULN 37Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+8
71.3%
Jake Retzlaff run for 8 yds to the TULN 45Similar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+3
71.4%
Jake Retzlaff run for 3 yds to the TULN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
74.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Omari Hayes for 19 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
76.1%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Johnny Pascuzzi for 11 yds to the DUKE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
76.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Omari Hayes for 11 yds to the DUKE 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
84.8%
Jake Retzlaff run for 11 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:1617% → 17%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
83.4%
Nate Sheppard run for 13 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+35
82.1%
Nate Sheppard run for 35 yds to the TULN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
79.8%
Jaquez Moore run for 7 yds to the TULN 20Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-4
80.4%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the TULN 24Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
82.4%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Nate SheppardSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
83.4%
Todd Pelino 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tavare SmithSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
83.4%
Todd Pelino 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tavare SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:4389% → 97%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
89.4%
Javin Gordon run for 1 yd to the TULN 25Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+3
89.6%
Javin Gordon run for 3 yds to the TULN 28Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+7
90.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Anthony Miller for 7 yds to the TULN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+63
90.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Shazz Preston for 63 yds to the DUKE 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
93.9%
(01:01) Retzlaff,Jake rush left for 1 yard gain to the DUK01 (Williams,Wesley) PENALTY TLN Holding (Hurst,Shadre) 10 yards from DUK02 to DUK12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
94.5%
Jake Retzlaff run for 5 yds to the DUKE 7Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Anthony Brown-StephensSimilar
Q4 14:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
94.3%
Jake Retzlaff sacked by Vincent Anthony Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 9Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
97.4%
Patrick Durkin 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:476% → 5%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.7%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Anderson Castle for 2 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
93.7%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Anderson Castle for 5 yds to the DUKE 32Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
93.7%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Jeremiah HasleySimilar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+15
93.8%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Mensah,Darian pass incomplete deep right to Brown,Que'Sean thrown to TLN36 PENALTY TLN Pass Interference (White,Javion) 15 yards from DUK32 to DUK47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.9%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
93.9%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the DUKE 48Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+7
94.9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 7 yds to the TULN 45Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
94.9%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Que'Sean BrownSimilar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
94.9%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Que'Sean BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:3098% → 99%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.3%
Zuberi Mobley run for no gain to the TULN 45Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
98.3%
Jake Retzlaff run for 1 yd to the TULN 46Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
98.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Bryce BohanonSimilar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 9
OWN 46
+15
98.3%
(09:44) Clark,Alec punt 41 yards to the DUK13 fair catch by Brown,Que'Sean at DUK13 PENALTY DUK Roughing The Kicker (Rivers,Chandler) 15 yards from TLN46 to DUK39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
98.5%
PENALTY TLN Illegal Snap (Hollifield,Jack) 5 yards from DUK39 to DUK44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+13
98.6%
Arnold Barnes III run for 13 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 2
OPP 31
0
98.6%
Javin Gordon run for no gain to the DUKE 31Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+1
98.6%
Jake Retzlaff run for 1 yd to the DUKE 30Similar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-2
98.6%
Jake Retzlaff run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
15 plays · 68 yds · 4:274% → 9%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
96.0%
Darian Mensah pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
96.2%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 7 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+5
96.2%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 5 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
96.4%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 7 yds to the TULN 49Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+7
96.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 7 yds to the TULN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
97.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Nate Sheppard for 6 yds to the TULN 36Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+5
97.0%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Nate Sheppard for 5 yds to the TULN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
96.9%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Mensah,Darian pass incomplete short right thrown to TLN19 PENALTY DUK Holding (Fina,Bruno) 10 yards from TLN31 to TLN41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 20
OPP 41
0
97.2%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Jeremiah HasleySimilar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 20
OPP 41
0
97.3%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper BarkateSimilar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 20
OPP 41
+7
97.5%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 7 yds to the TULN 34Similar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 13
OPP 34
+24
97.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 24 yds to the TULN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
97.1%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Que'Sean BrownSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
97.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Nate Sheppard for 6 yds to the TULN 4Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.2%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Nate Sheppard for 4 yds for a TD Tulane Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined (N. Sheppard Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:2395% → 96%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
95.0%
Jake Retzlaff run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 48Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-2
95.7%
Arnold Barnes III run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 13
50
+8
96.4%
Arnold Barnes III run for 8 yds to the DUKE 42Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
96.3%
Alec Clark punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 1:053% → 15%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
97.0%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Peyton Jones for 5 yds to the DUKE 19Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
96.9%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Peyton JonesSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+14
96.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 14 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
96.3%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+13
96.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Peyton Jones for 13 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
96.5%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+24
96.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Chase Tyler for 39 yds to the TULN 15 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Chase Tyler) to the TULN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+47
85.4%
Todd Pelino 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:5998% → 98%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
98.2%
J. Retzlaff takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-1
98.2%
J. Retzlaff takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:18
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-11.4
FG · Q4 1:06
Todd Pelino 47 yd FG GOOD
-11.1
FG · Q2 1:54
Patrick Durkin 29 yd FG GOOD
+10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com