Try the model
BC

Boston College 20 at Stanford 30

STAN
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Stanford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:42 · Shamus Florio punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Liam Thorpe at the STAN 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Pregame prior−19.2Home team on offense−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:43: Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 49 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK) — BC win probability +5.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:47: Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 69 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK) — STAN win probability +13.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Offense has -3 timeouts left).
  3. TD · Q2 1:29: Dylan Lonergan pass intercepted Collin Wright return for 19 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK) — STAN win probability +10.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Defense has -3 timeouts left).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Luca Lombardo 31 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +9.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:35: Micah Ford run for 5 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK) — STAN win probability +28.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 7:10STAN 4th & 4 at BC 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.7%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:17BC 4th & 4 at BC 29, down 3
    Close callPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:04STAN 4th & 8 at BC 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:38BC 4th & 6 at STAN 32, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:45STAN 4th & 9 at STAN 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:39STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:49STAN 4th & 5 at BC 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00BC 4th & 3 at STAN 13, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%−0.6
    85% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−8.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:42BC 4th & 16 at BC 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−4.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:12STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:54BC 4th & 13 at BC 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−4.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:56STAN 4th & 26 at STAN 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−5.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:32BC 4th & 1 at STAN 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    53.7%−5.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−19.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:00BC 4th & 19 at BC 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−6.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:26STAN 4th & 5 at BC 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−12.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:36BC 4th & 6 at BC 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 10:43BC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:04BC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:47STAN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:29STAN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:35STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1FG
16 plays · 70 yds · 7:3816% → 20%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
15.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 14 yds to the STAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
15.9%
Micah Ford run for no gain to the STAN 39Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
16.2%
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the STAN 41Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+20
16.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for 20 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
17.0%
Tuna Altahir run for 4 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
17.4%
Tuna Altahir run for no gain to the BC 35Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+7
17.7%
Ben Gulbranson run for 7 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
18.2%
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+13
18.7%
Cole Tabb run for 13 yds to the BC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
19.1%
Cole Tabb run for 5 yds to the BC 6Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+3
19.3%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the BC 3Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 2
OPP 3
-2
19.6%
Micah Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 5Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
20.1%
Emmet Kenney 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:4180% → 77%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
20.3%
Turbo Richard run for no gain to the BC 11Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+5
20.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 5 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+7
21.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 7 yds to the BC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
21.4%
Turbo Richard run for 2 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
21.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for no gain to the BC 25Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+4
22.6%
Dylan Lonergan run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
23.2%
Shamus Florio punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the STAN 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3FG
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:0023% → 26%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+40
23.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 40 yds to the BC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
23.8%
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the BC 18Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
24.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sam RoushSimilar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+1
24.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 1 yd to the BC 17Similar
Q1 1:04
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+35
26.2%
Emmet Kenney 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:2075% → 75%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
25.2%
Turbo Richard run for 8 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
24.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 14 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
24.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 6 yds to the STAN 47Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+11
24.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 11 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
24.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Zeke Moore for 4 yds to the STAN 32Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
24.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Turbo RichardSimilar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
25.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jeremiah FranklinSimilar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+51
24.8%
Luca Lombardo 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4326% → 26%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Cole TabbSimilar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
26.2%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the STAN 21Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-2
26.3%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Ty Clemons for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 21 Ben Gulbranson fumbled, recovered by BC Daveon Crouch , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
25.9%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:5073% → 79%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
26.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jordan McDonald for 10 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
26.8%
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd to the BC 38Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+9
27.2%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 9 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
26.6%
Jordan McDonald run for 4 yds to the STAN 49Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+49
21.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 49 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:5422% → 22%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
22.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sam RoushSimilar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
22.3%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the STAN 26Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
21.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Marcus BrownSimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 6
OWN 26
-5
21.7%
PENALTY STAN False Start (Richardson,Cam) 5 yards from STAN26 to STAN21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:39
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
21.7%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:3477% → 81%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
22.8%
(09:38) PENALTY BC False Start (Taylor,Logan) 5 yards from BC26 to BC21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+24
23.2%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 24 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
22.1%
Jordan McDonald run for 7 yds to the STAN 48Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+46
21.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 46 yds to the STAN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
18.9%
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:0216% → 17%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
16.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Benji Blackburn for 8 yds to the STAN 33Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+13
16.7%
Micah Ford run for 13 yds to the STAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
17.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 11 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
17.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 6 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
17.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Micah FordSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 4
OPP 37
-1
17.6%
Sedrick Irvin run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 38Similar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+2
16.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for 2 yds to the BC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 40 yds · 2:0284% → 86%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
15.8%
Turbo Richard run for 8 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+13
15.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 13 yds to the STAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
15.0%
Turbo Richard run for 3 yds to the STAN 40Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+23
14.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 23 yds to the STAN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-7
14.0%
Dylan Lonergan run for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 24 Dylan Lonergan fumbled, recovered by BC Clay PattersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 0:4516% → 30%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
16.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 3 yds to the STAN 27Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+4
16.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 4 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+69
30.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 69 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12INT TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0970% → 57%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
29.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-19
39.7%
Dylan Lonergan pass intercepted Collin Wright return for 19 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
Q2 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
42.8%
PENALTY STAN Illegal Substitution (Brown,Ziron) 5 yards from BC03 to BC08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 1:2461% → 72%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
39.2%
Turbo Richard run for 13 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
37.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 20 yds to the STAN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
35.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed HarrisSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
35.6%
(01:04) PENALTY BC False Start (Bowry,Jude) 5 yards from STAN42 to STAN47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+7
38.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 7 yds to the STAN 40Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+9
37.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 9 yds to the STAN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
36.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 4 yds to the STAN 27Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
36.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Kaelan ChudzinskiSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+7
37.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 7 yds to the STAN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
36.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Turbo RichardSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
37.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 7 yds to the STAN 13Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
38.2%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+31
28.4%
Luca Lombardo 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:1269% → 66%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.0%
Turbo Richard run for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
30.7%
Turbo Richard run for 7 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
30.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed HarrisSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
30.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to VJ Wilkins for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 16
OWN 31
0
33.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jaedn SkeeteSimilar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 16
OWN 31
0
34.2%
Shamus Florio punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Liam Thorpe at the STAN 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2436% → 35%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
35.6%
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
36.7%
Cole Tabb run for 3 yds to the STAN 37Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
37.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Tuna AltahirSimilar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
35.2%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:1166% → 63%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
33.7%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 4 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
34.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jeremiah FranklinSimilar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-7
35.2%
Dylan Lonergan sacked by Ernest Cooper for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 12Similar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 13
OWN 12
0
37.0%
Shamus Florio punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 1:4841% → 37%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
41.3%
(09:49) No Huddle Gulbranson,Ben pass complete short right to Williams,CJ caught at BC33, for 9 yards to the BC33 (Farris,Isaiah) PENALTY STAN Ineligible Downfield on Pass declined STAN Pass Interference (Williams,CJ) 15 yards from BC42 to STAN43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 25
OWN 43
+4
38.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Myles Libman for 4 yds to the STAN 47Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 21
OWN 47
0
39.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to C.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 21
OWN 47
-5
37.6%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Ty Clemons for a loss of 5 yards to the STAN 42Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 26
OWN 42
+12
36.6%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 35 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for 12 yds to the BC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18FUMBLE
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:1766% → 65%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
34.3%
Turbo Richard run for no gain to the BC 35Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
34.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 6 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+8
33.4%
Dylan Lonergan run for 8 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
32.9%
Turbo Richard run for 5 yds to the STAN 46Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+25
32.7%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 25 yds to the STAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
30.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Kaelan Chudzinski for 11 yds to the STAN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
31.1%
Turbo Richard run for 6 yds to the STAN 4Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
31.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jeremiah FranklinSimilar
Q3 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
33.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 3 yds to the STAN 1Similar
Q3 2:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.3%
Turbo Richard run for 1 yd Turbo Richard fumbled, recovered by BC Jay GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:5743% → 71%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+75
42.5%
Micah Ford run for 75 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
71.3%
Micah Ford run for 5 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2335% → 30%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jordan McDonald for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
65.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed HarrisSimilar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-11
67.6%
Dylan Lonergan sacked by Zach Johnson for a loss of 11 yards to the BC 16Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+3
69.9%
Shamus Florio punt for 43 yds , Liam Thorpe returns for 3 yds to the STAN 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:2476% → 80%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+31
75.5%
Micah Ford run for 31 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
77.5%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
78.5%
Micah Ford run for 5 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+4
77.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 4 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
79.8%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the BC 9Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+1
80.6%
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the BC 8Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
79.7%
Stanford Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
80.3%
Emmet Kenney 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:4219% → 13%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.2%
Turbo Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 24Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
83.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 4 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
85.3%
(10:05) Shotgun Lonergan,Dylan sacked for loss of 1 yard to the BC27 (Rose,Matt, Johnson,Zach) PENALTY STAN Offside (Aybar,Wilfredo) 5 yards from BC28 to BC33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
84.2%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 3 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
84.1%
Turbo Richard run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 34Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+6
86.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 6 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
86.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
87.5%
Shamus Florio punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Liam Thorpe at the STAN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23END OF GAME
17 plays · 38 yds · 7:3096% → 99%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
95.6%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the STAN 21Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
95.8%
Micah Ford run for 7 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
96.5%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the STAN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
96.8%
Bryce Farrell run for 7 yds to the STAN 38Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+8
97.2%
Tuna Altahir run for 8 yds to the STAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
97.4%
Tuna Altahir run for 5 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
97.7%
Tuna Altahir run for 6 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
98.0%
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+4
98.4%
Tuna Altahir run for 4 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+5
98.4%
PENALTY BC Offside (Hutchins,Quintavious) 5 yards from BC37 to BC32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
98.6%
B. Gulbranson takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 15
OPP 37
-2
98.6%
B. Gulbranson takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 39
-3
98.7%
B. Gulbranson takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:35
Micah Ford run for 5 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
+28.7
TD · Q2 1:47
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 69 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
+13.6
TD · Q2 1:29
Dylan Lonergan pass intercepted Collin Wright return for 19 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com