BC
Boston College 20 at Stanford 30
STAN2025 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2025 · Stanford Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
STAN · Drive 1FG · 16 plays · 70 yds
Q1 15:00
Luca Lombardo kickoff for 65 yds
18.6%
0.0
Q1 14:48
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 14 yds to the STAN 39 for a 1ST down
20.1%
+1.5
Q1 14:19
Micah Ford run for no gain to the STAN 39
20.7%
+0.6
Q1 13:40
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the STAN 41
20.7%
0.0
Q1 12:51
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for 20 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST down
20.7%
0.0
Q1 12:25
Tuna Altahir run for 4 yds to the BC 35
21.9%
+1.2
Q1 11:47
Tuna Altahir run for no gain to the BC 35
21.9%
0.0
Q1 11:01
Ben Gulbranson run for 7 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST down
21.7%
-0.2
Q1 10:22
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the BC 24
21.9%
+0.2
Q1 9:41
Cole Tabb run for 13 yds to the BC 11 for a 1ST down
21.9%
0.0
Q1 9:03
Cole Tabb run for 5 yds to the BC 6
22.0%
+0.1
Q1 8:25
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the BC 3
22.1%
+0.1
Q1 7:48
Micah Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 5
21.9%
-0.2
Q1 7:11
Timeout Stanford, clock 07:11
20.7%
-1.2
Q1 7:10
Emmet Kenney 23 yd FG GOOD
25.8%
+5.1
Q1 7:06
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 65 yds , VJ Wilkins return for 21 yds to the BC 44 Boston College Penalty, (10 Yards) to the BC 11
20.7%
-5.1
BC · Drive 2PUNT · 7 plays · 18 yds
Q1 6:58
Turbo Richard run for no gain to the BC 11
22.9%
+2.2
Q1 6:16
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 5 yds to the BC 16
22.9%
0.0
Q1 5:37
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 7 yds to the BC 23 for a 1ST down
23.0%
+0.1
Q1 5:07
Turbo Richard run for 2 yds to the BC 25
23.2%
+0.2
Q1 4:26
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for no gain to the BC 25
23.2%
0.0
Q1 3:49
Dylan Lonergan run for 4 yds to the BC 29
23.2%
0.0
Q1 3:17
Shamus Florio punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the STAN 41
23.3%
+0.1
STAN · Drive 3FG · 6 plays · 42 yds
Q1 3:04
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 40 yds to the BC 19 for a 1ST down
26.1%
+2.8
Q1 2:34
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the BC 18
27.0%
+0.9
Q1 1:53
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sam Roush
27.0%
0.0
Q1 1:44
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 1 yd to the BC 17
26.8%
-0.2
Q1 1:04
Emmet Kenney 35 yd FG GOOD
32.3%
+5.5
Q1 1:04
Timeout Stanford, clock 01:04
23.5%
-8.8
BC · Drive 4FG · 10 plays · 43 yds
Q1 1:04
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
31.9%
+8.5
Q1 0:58
Turbo Richard run for 8 yds to the BC 33
28.1%
-3.9
Q1 0:16
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 14 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST down
28.1%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 6 yds to the STAN 47
27.4%
-0.6
Q2 14:51
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 11 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST down
27.5%
+0.1
Q2 14:26
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Zeke Moore for 4 yds to the STAN 32
27.2%
-0.3
Q2 13:51
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Turbo Richard
27.2%
0.0
Q2 13:43
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jeremiah Franklin
27.2%
0.0
Q2 13:38
Luca Lombardo 51 yd FG GOOD
23.5%
-3.8
Q2 13:38
Timeout Stanford, clock 13:38
29.8%
+6.4
STAN · Drive 5PUNT · 6 plays · 1 yds
Q2 13:33
Luca Lombardo kickoff for 59 yds , Cole Tabb return for 14 yds to the STAN 20
24.1%
-5.7
Q2 13:28
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Cole Tabb
24.0%
-0.1
Q2 13:22
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the STAN 21
24.0%
0.0
Q2 13:19
Timeout Stanford, clock 13:19
22.9%
-1.1
Q2 12:56
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Ty Clemons for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 21 Ben Gulbranson fumbled, recovered by BC Daveon Crouch , return for 0 yards
22.9%
0.0
Q2 12:45
Aidan Flintoft punt for 52 yds
22.4%
-0.5
BC · Drive 6TD · 5 plays · 73 yds
Q2 12:33
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jordan McDonald for 10 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST down
24.1%
+1.7
Q2 12:02
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd to the BC 38
24.1%
0.0
Q2 11:23
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 9 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST down
23.5%
-0.7
Q2 11:09
Jordan McDonald run for 4 yds to the STAN 49
24.1%
+0.6
Q2 10:43
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 49 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
13.6%
-10.5
STAN · Drive 7PUNT · 6 plays · -1 yds
Q2 10:37
Luca Lombardo kickoff for 58 yds , Cole Tabb return for 15 yds to the STAN 22
14.4%
+0.8
Q2 10:33
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sam Roush
16.7%
+2.3
Q2 10:24
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the STAN 26
16.8%
+0.1
Q2 9:49
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Marcus Brown
16.8%
0.0
Q2 9:49
PENALTY STAN False Start (Richardson,Cam) 5 yards from STAN26 to STAN21. NO PLAY.
16.8%
0.0
Q2 9:39
Aidan Flintoft punt for 53 yds
16.8%
0.0
BC · Drive 8TD · 6 plays · 74 yds
Q2 9:38
(09:38) PENALTY BC False Start (Taylor,Logan) 5 yards from BC26 to BC21. NO PLAY.
14.5%
-2.3
Q2 9:23
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 24 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST down
14.5%
0.0
Q2 8:54
Jordan McDonald run for 7 yds to the STAN 48
13.8%
-0.7
Q2 8:07
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 46 yds to the STAN 2 for a 1ST down
12.7%
-1.1
Q2 8:05
Timeout Stanford, clock 08:05
15.8%
+3.1
Q2 8:04
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
6.7%
-0.5
STAN · Drive 9DOWNS · 8 plays · 39 yds
Q2 8:05
Luca Lombardo kickoff for 65 yds
7.2%
-8.6
Q2 7:51
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Benji Blackburn for 8 yds to the STAN 33
8.0%
+1.3
Q2 7:20
Micah Ford run for 13 yds to the STAN 46 for a 1ST down
8.0%
0.0
Q2 6:34
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 11 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST down
7.5%
-0.5
Q2 6:04
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 6 yds to the BC 37
8.5%
+1.0
Q2 5:32
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Micah Ford
8.5%
0.0
Q2 5:25
Sedrick Irvin run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 38
8.5%
0.0
Q2 4:49
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for 2 yds to the BC 36
8.4%
-0.1
BC · Drive 10FUMBLE · 5 plays · 40 yds
Q2 4:43
Turbo Richard run for 8 yds to the BC 44
7.1%
-1.2
Q2 4:06
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 13 yds to the STAN 43 for a 1ST down
6.9%
-0.2
Q2 3:36
Turbo Richard run for 3 yds to the STAN 40
6.8%
-0.1
Q2 2:54
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 23 yds to the STAN 17 for a 1ST down
6.8%
0.0
Q2 2:41
Dylan Lonergan run for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 24 Dylan Lonergan fumbled, recovered by BC Clay Patterson
6.8%
0.0
STAN · Drive 11TD · 4 plays · 76 yds
Q2 2:32
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 3 yds to the STAN 27
6.9%
+0.1
Q2 2:00
Timeout Stanford, clock 02:00
6.6%
-0.3
Q2 1:59
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 4 yds to the STAN 31
6.6%
0.0
Q2 1:47
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 69 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
20.3%
+13.7
BC · Drive 12INT TD · 4 plays · 0 yds
Q2 1:42
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 65 yds , VJ Wilkins return for 17 yds to the BC 17
20.3%
0.0
Q2 1:38
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis Bond
14.6%
-5.8
Q2 1:29
Dylan Lonergan pass intercepted Collin Wright return for 19 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
30.9%
+16.4
Q2 1:29
PENALTY STAN Illegal Substitution (Brown,Ziron) 5 yards from BC03 to BC08. NO PLAY.
23.6%
-7.3
BC · Drive 13FG · 16 plays · 62 yds
Q2 1:29
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
33.3%
+9.7
Q2 1:24
Turbo Richard run for 13 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST down
30.9%
-2.3
Q2 1:13
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 20 yds to the STAN 42 for a 1ST down
30.8%
-0.1
Q2 1:03
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed Harris
29.3%
-1.5
Q2 1:02
(01:04) PENALTY BC False Start (Bowry,Jude) 5 yards from STAN42 to STAN47. NO PLAY.
29.3%
0.0
Q2 0:55
Timeout Boston College, clock 00:55
29.0%
-0.3
Q2 0:51
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 7 yds to the STAN 40
29.6%
+0.6
Q2 0:51
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 9 yds to the STAN 31 for a 1ST down
29.0%
-0.6
Q2 0:44
Timeout Boston College, clock 00:44
29.1%
+0.1
Q2 0:42
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 4 yds to the STAN 27
29.1%
0.0
Q2 0:40
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Kaelan Chudzinski
29.1%
0.0
Q2 0:34
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 7 yds to the STAN 20 for a 1ST down
29.1%
0.0
Q2 0:26
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Turbo Richard
29.0%
-0.1
Q2 0:07
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 7 yds to the STAN 13
29.4%
+0.4
Q2 0:02
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis Bond
29.4%
0.0
Q2 0:00
Luca Lombardo 31 yd FG GOOD
21.4%
-8.0
BC · Drive 14PUNT · 8 plays · 6 yds
Q3 15:00
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 62 yds
27.7%
+6.3
Q3 14:54
Turbo Richard run for 5 yds to the BC 30
24.6%
-3.1
Q3 14:15
Turbo Richard run for 7 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST down
24.6%
0.0
Q3 13:39
Timeout Stanford, clock 13:39
23.8%
-0.8
Q3 13:38
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed Harris
23.8%
0.0
Q3 13:30
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to VJ Wilkins for 6 yds to the BC 31
23.8%
0.0
Q3 12:50
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jaedn Skeete
23.8%
0.0
Q3 12:42
Shamus Florio punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Liam Thorpe at the STAN 30
23.8%
0.0
STAN · Drive 15PUNT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q3 12:36
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the STAN 34
28.9%
+5.0
Q3 11:57
Cole Tabb run for 3 yds to the STAN 37
28.9%
0.0
Q3 11:20
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Tuna Altahir
29.1%
+0.2
Q3 11:12
Aidan Flintoft punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 15
28.8%
-0.3
BC · Drive 16PUNT · 4 plays · -8 yds
Q3 11:05
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 4 yds to the BC 19
23.8%
-5.0
Q3 10:36
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jeremiah Franklin
24.8%
+1.0
Q3 10:31
Dylan Lonergan sacked by Ernest Cooper for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 12
24.8%
0.0
Q3 9:54
Shamus Florio punt for 35 yds
25.3%
+0.5
STAN · Drive 17PUNT · 6 plays · -16 yds
Q3 9:51
Timeout Stanford, clock 09:51
31.5%
+6.2
Q3 9:44
(09:49) No Huddle Gulbranson,Ben pass complete short right to Williams,CJ caught at BC33, for 9 yards to the BC33 (Farris,Isaiah) PENALTY STAN Ineligible Downfield on Pass declined STAN Pass Interference (Williams,CJ) 15 yards from BC42 to STAN43. NO PLAY.
32.7%
+1.2
Q3 9:13
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Myles Libman for 4 yds to the STAN 47
31.5%
-1.2
Q3 8:46
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to C.J. Williams
31.5%
0.0
Q3 8:39
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Ty Clemons for a loss of 5 yards to the STAN 42
31.3%
-0.2
Q3 7:56
Aidan Flintoft punt for 35 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for 12 yds to the BC 35
30.8%
-0.5
BC · Drive 18FUMBLE · 11 plays · 65 yds
Q3 7:49
Turbo Richard run for no gain to the BC 35
25.3%
-5.5
Q3 7:49
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 6 yds to the BC 41
25.3%
0.0
Q3 6:24
Dylan Lonergan run for 8 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST down
24.5%
-0.8
Q3 5:56
Turbo Richard run for 5 yds to the STAN 46
23.9%
-0.6
Q3 5:16
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 25 yds to the STAN 21 for a 1ST down
23.7%
-0.2
Q3 4:38
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Kaelan Chudzinski for 11 yds to the STAN 10 for a 1ST down
24.5%
+0.8
Q3 4:02
Turbo Richard run for 6 yds to the STAN 4
25.9%
+1.4
Q3 3:20
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jeremiah Franklin
25.9%
0.0
Q3 3:10
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 3 yds to the STAN 1
25.9%
0.0
Q3 2:38
Timeout Boston College, clock 02:38
26.5%
+0.6
Q3 2:32
Turbo Richard run for 1 yd Turbo Richard fumbled, recovered by BC Jay Green
26.5%
0.0
STAN · Drive 19TD · 2 plays · 80 yds
Q3 2:32
Micah Ford run for 75 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST down
34.1%
+7.6
Q3 1:35
Micah Ford run for 5 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
61.5%
+27.5
BC · Drive 20PUNT · 5 plays · -9 yds
Q3 1:35
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 65 yds
60.2%
-1.3
Q3 1:23
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jordan McDonald for 2 yds to the BC 27
52.8%
-7.4
Q3 0:47
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Reed Harris
52.8%
0.0
Q3 0:41
Dylan Lonergan sacked by Zach Johnson for a loss of 11 yards to the BC 16
52.8%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Shamus Florio punt for 43 yds , Liam Thorpe returns for 3 yds to the STAN 44
52.8%
0.0
STAN · Drive 21FG · 9 plays · 48 yds
Q4 14:50
Micah Ford run for 31 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST down
65.3%
+12.5
Q4 14:13
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the BC 22
66.4%
+1.2
Q4 13:35
Micah Ford run for 5 yds to the BC 17
67.7%
+1.3
Q4 13:13
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 4 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST down
67.5%
-0.2
Q4 12:42
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the BC 9
67.7%
+0.2
Q4 12:01
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the BC 8
69.0%
+1.3
Q4 11:26
Stanford Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declined
68.7%
-0.2
Q4 11:26
Emmet Kenney 26 yd FG GOOD
74.6%
+5.8
Q4 11:26
Timeout Stanford, clock 11:26
57.7%
-16.9
BC · Drive 22PUNT · 9 plays · 15 yds
Q4 11:23
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
74.5%
+16.8
Q4 11:18
Turbo Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 24
69.0%
-5.5
Q4 10:37
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 4 yds to the BC 28
69.5%
+0.6
Q4 10:00
(10:05) Shotgun Lonergan,Dylan sacked for loss of 1 yard to the BC27 (Rose,Matt, Johnson,Zach) PENALTY STAN Offside (Aybar,Wilfredo) 5 yards from BC28 to BC33. NO PLAY.
69.5%
0.0
Q4 9:29
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 3 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST down
69.7%
+0.2
Q4 9:10
Turbo Richard run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 34
69.6%
0.0
Q4 8:25
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 6 yds to the BC 40
70.6%
+1.0
Q4 7:42
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis Bond
74.0%
+3.4
Q4 7:36
Shamus Florio punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Liam Thorpe at the STAN 20
74.0%
0.0
STAN · Drive 23END OF GAME · 17 plays · 38 yds
Q4 7:36
Timeout Stanford, clock 07:36
77.1%
+3.1
Q4 7:30
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the STAN 21
80.9%
+3.8
Q4 6:48
Micah Ford run for 7 yds to the STAN 28
81.0%
+0.2
Q4 6:02
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the STAN 31 for a 1ST down
83.3%
+2.2
Q4 5:13
Bryce Farrell run for 7 yds to the STAN 38
83.4%
+0.1
Q4 4:32
Tuna Altahir run for 8 yds to the STAN 46 for a 1ST down
83.7%
+0.3
Q4 3:51
Tuna Altahir run for 5 yds to the BC 49
84.9%
+1.2
Q4 3:51
Timeout Boston College, clock 03:51
84.9%
0.0
Q4 3:44
Tuna Altahir run for 6 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST down
84.9%
0.0
Q4 3:39
Timeout Boston College, clock 03:39
85.0%
+0.1
Q4 3:35
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the BC 41
85.0%
0.0
Q4 2:49
Tuna Altahir run for 4 yds to the BC 37
85.0%
0.0
Q4 2:12
PENALTY BC Offside (Hutchins,Quintavious) 5 yards from BC37 to BC32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
85.0%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Stanford, clock 02:00
85.0%
0.0
Q4 1:56
B. Gulbranson takes a knee
85.6%
+0.5
Q4 1:13
B. Gulbranson takes a knee
85.7%
+0.1
Q4 0:00
B. Gulbranson takes a knee
82.7%
-3.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:35
Micah Ford run for 5 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
+27.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:26
Timeout Stanford, clock 11:26
-16.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:23
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+16.8