View as
Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadCOLG aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreCOLG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:06 · Tripp Woody 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:30: Steve Angeli pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 26 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK) — SYR win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- FG · Q1 5:48: Luke Vogeler 39 yd FG GOOD — COLG win probability +0.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: COLG has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:12: Steve Angeli pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 43 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK) — SYR win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- FG · Q2 10:06: Tripp Woody 22 yd FG GOOD — SYR win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:50: Steve Angeli pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 35 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK) — SYR win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 1 of 2COLG made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 12:59COLG 4th & 7 at COLG 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q1 5:48COLG 4th & 3 at SYR 22, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.7%52% to convertField goalTheir call2.7%−<0.172% to makePunt2.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 1:18COLG 4th & 18 at COLG 17, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q2 11:22COLG 4th & 4 at SYR 47, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:22COLG 4th & 4 at SYR 47, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:06SYR 4th & 4 at COLG 4, up 18Close callKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call97.4%−0.193% to makePunt96.5%−1.0average punt
- Q2 9:12COLG 4th & 4 at COLG 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q2 3:49COLG 4th & 7 at COLG 43, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 12:38SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 36, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 5:17COLG 4th & 6 at COLG 29, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:42COLG 4th & 2 at SYR 32, down 42Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%57% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%−<0.151% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 8 of 8COLG made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 10:30SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:12SYR Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:50SYR Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:43SYR Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:13SYR Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:36COLG Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:00COLG Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:03SYR Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:27COLG Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:26SYR Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:54SYR Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCOLGDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:541% → 1%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.8%
Zach Osborne pass complete to Treyvhon Saunders for 10 yds to the COLG 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:2299% → 99%
Q1 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+24
98.6%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Johntay Cook for 24 yds to the COLG 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+6
98.5%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 6 yds to the COLG 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+26
98.5%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 26 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 3INT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:072% → 2%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.4%
(10:30) PENALTY SYRA Holding 10 yards from COLG25 to COLG35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
98.4%
PENALTY COLG False Start 5 yards from COLG35 to COLG30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+5
98.4%
Zach Osborne pass complete to Danny Shaban for 5 yds to the COLG 35Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
98.4%
Zach Osborne pass complete to Winston Moore for 12 yds to the COLG 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
98.2%
Reed Swanson sacked by Braheem Long Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the COLG 39Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 18
OWN 39
0
98.3%
Zach Osborne pass intercepted Braheem Long Jr. return for no gain to the SYR 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4FUMBLE1 play · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
98.3%
Will Nixon run for 8 yds to the SYR 42 Will Nixon fumbled, recovered by COLG Kenny LangstonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 5FG8 plays · 20 yds · 2:072% → 2%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
98.0%
Zach Osborne pass complete to Treyvhon Saunders for 7 yds to the SYR 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6TD11 plays · 83 yds · 3:0898% → 98%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
97.8%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Tyshawn Russell for 7 yds to the SYR 24Similar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
97.8%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Demetres Samuel Jr. for 10 yds to the SYR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+7
97.6%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Dan Villari for 7 yds to the COLG 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+43
97.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 43 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:502% → 2%
SYRDrive 8TD7 plays · 36 yds · 2:0098% → 98%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
97.8%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 20 yds to the COLG 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.4%
Colgate Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Elijah Hamilton) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.4%
Colgate Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Elijah Hamilton) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 9DOWNS8 plays · 28 yds · 2:272% → 2%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.2%
Zach Osborne pass complete to Treyvhon Saunders for 4 yds to the COLG 29Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+18
98.2%
Zach Osborne pass complete to Reed Swanson for 18 yds to the COLG 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+6
98.1%
Zach Osborne pass complete to Treyvhon Saunders for 6 yds to the SYR 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10FG6 plays · 49 yds · 0:5598% → 99%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+43
98.3%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 43 yds to the COLG 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:501% → 1%
SYRDrive 12TD6 plays · 60 yds · 2:0499% → 100%
Q2 8:18
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+5
98.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 5 yds to the COLG 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
98.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to David Clement for 4 yds to the COLG 38Similar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.5%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 35 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:530% → 0%
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.6%
Zach Osborne pass complete to Reed Swanson for 15 yds to the COLG 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14TD7 plays · 80 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
99.5%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Johntay Cook for 12 yds to the SYR 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.6%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jaylan Hornsby for 3 yds to the SYR 35Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+11
99.5%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Dan Villari for 11 yds to the COLG 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.6%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jaylan Hornsby for 25 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 15INT15 plays · 68 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q2 1:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
99.7%
Zach Osborne pass complete to Winston Moore for 6 yds to the COLG 32Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
99.7%
Zach Osborne pass complete to Reed Swanson for 14 yds to the SYR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
99.8%
Zach Osborne pass complete to Treyvhon Saunders for 26 yds to the SYR 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
99.7%
Zach Osborne pass complete to Brady Hutchison for 6 yds to the SYR 7Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
99.7%
Zach Osborne pass intercepted, touchback. Demetres Samuel Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 12 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
99.7%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Dan Villari for 9 yds to the SYR 33Similar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
99.7%
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Angeli,Steve pass incomplete short middle to Russell,Tyshawn thrown to SYRA50 PENALTY SYRA Holding 10 yards from SYRA35 to SYRA25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+11
99.7%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Darien Williams for 11 yds to the SYR 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 18Uncategorized6 plays · 6 yds · 2:570% → 0%
Q3 11:47
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Jake Stearney pass complete to Treyvhon Saunders for 7 yds to the COLG 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
99.8%
Jake Stearney pass complete to Brady Hutchison for 5 yds to the COLG 37Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-15
99.8%
Colgate Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the COLG 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19TD4 plays · 26 yds · 0:11100% → 100%
Q3 9:13
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.8%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Darien Williams for 26 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 20TD11 plays · 90 yds · 4:270% → 0%
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+7
99.9%
Jake Stearney pass complete to Mason Mozo for 7 yds to the COLG 17Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+9
99.9%
Jake Stearney pass complete to Treyvhon Saunders for 9 yds to the COLG 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Jake Stearney pass complete to Reed Swanson for 1 yd to the COLG 27Similar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.8%
Jake Stearney pass complete to Treyvhon Saunders for 5 yds to the SYR 26Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+12
99.8%
Jake Stearney pass complete to Treyvhon Saunders for 12 yds to the SYR 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
Jake Stearney pass complete to Reed Swanson for 12 yds for a TD (Luke Vogeler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21INT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
COLGDrive 22TD9 plays · 60 yds · 2:450% → 0%
Q3 2:19
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+15
99.9%
PENALTY SYRA Pass Interference 15 yards from COLG42 to SYRA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
99.9%
Jake Stearney pass complete to Cole Fulton for 9 yds to the SYR 36Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Jake Stearney pass complete to Reed Swanson for 23 yds for a TD (Luke Vogeler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23TD10 plays · 71 yds · 3:39100% → 100%
Q4 13:02
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+13
99.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Dan Villari for 13 yds to the COLG 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
99.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Gabe Daniels for 17 yds to the COLG 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+21
99.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jaylan Hornsby for 21 yds to the COLG 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 24TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.9%
Jake Stearney pass complete to Cole Fulton for 16 yds to the COLG 41 for a 1ST down Syracuse Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Jake Stearney pass complete to Winston Moore for 2 yds to the COLG 43Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+13
99.9%
Jake Stearney pass complete to Treyvhon Saunders for 13 yds to the SYR 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 25TD8 plays · 93 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+35
99.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Darien Williams for 35 yds to the SYR 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
99.9%
Rickie Collins pass complete to Daunte Bacheyie for 11 yds to the COLG 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Rickie Collins pass complete to Gabe Daniels for 12 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 26FUMBLE5 plays · -10 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q4 5:17
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-14
100.0%
run for a loss of 14 yards to the COLG 13 fumbled, recovered by COLG Jahide Lesaine Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 27TD2 plays · 13 yds · 0:01100% → 100%
COLGDrive 28MISSED FG11 plays · 43 yds · 3:570% → 0%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
100.0%
Aleks Sitkowski pass complete to Jariyah Sawyer for 8 yds to the COLG 33Similar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
100.0%
Aleks Sitkowski pass complete to Jariyah Sawyer for 3 yds to the COLG 39Similar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
100.0%
Aleks Sitkowski pass complete to Matt Fogler for 7 yds to the SYR 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 29END OF GAME1 play · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:50
Steve Angeli pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 35 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK)
+0.6
FG · Q2 10:06
Tripp Woody 22 yd FG GOOD
+0.5
TD · Q1 2:12
Steve Angeli pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 43 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK)
+0.4