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CMU

Central Michigan 17 at Pittsburgh 45

PITT
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:01 · Jadyn Glasser pass complete to DeCorion Temple for 8 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior+20.6Home team on offense+13.6Score differential+5.4Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6Time remaining+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:03: Eli Holstein pass complete to Justin Holmes for 12 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK) — PITT win probability +2.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:08: Trey Butkowski 43 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +3.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:09: Jadyn Glasser run for 2 yds for a TD (Cade Graham KICK) — CMU win probability +3.7 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:01: Joe Labas pass complete to DeCorion Temple for 6 yds for a TD (Cade Graham KICK) — CMU win probability +11.5 pts (now 19%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:43: Desmond Reid run for no gain to the CMU 48 — PITT win probability +11.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 10:18CMU 4th & 18 at CMU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:10PITT 4th & 1 at CMU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:28CMU 4th & 10 at PITT 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:00CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:59CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:08PITT 4th & 5 at CMU 25, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:30CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:30CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:25CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 45, down 14
    Close callPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:19PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 18, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:01CMU 4th & 4 at PITT 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−1.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:35CMU 4th & 4 at PITT 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%−0.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−3.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:42CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:05CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 47, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:05CMU 4th & 21 at PITT 31, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.0 ptsWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%−3.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−3.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:05CMU 4th & 21 at PITT 31, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.0 ptsWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%−3.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:56PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:03PITT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:40PITT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:09CMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:01CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:4794% → 94%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
94.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 4 yds to the PITT 32Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+20
94.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 20 yds to the CMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
94.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 6 yds to the CMU 42Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
93.9%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+4
93.9%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the CMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+32
93.7%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 32 yds to the CMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
93.7%
PENALTY CMU Offside (Demma,Korver) 3 yards from CMU06 to CMU03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:266% → 6%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
93.7%
Nahree Biggins run for 3 yds to the CMU 25Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+11
93.5%
run for 11 yds to the CMU 14 fumbled, recovered by CMU Joe LabasSimilar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 18
OWN 14
0
93.6%
Joe Labas pass incomplete to Tyson DavisSimilar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 18
OWN 14
0
93.6%
Declan Duley punt for 71 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3DOWNS
14 plays · 61 yds · 6:0294% → 93%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
93.5%
Desmond Reid run for no gain to the PITT 15Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-4
93.4%
Eli Holstein sacked by Fernando Sanchez III for a loss of 4 yards to the PITT 11Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+31
93.2%
Eli Holstein run for 31 yds to the PITT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
93.4%
Desmond Reid run for 5 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-6
93.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 4 yds to the CMU 49 Pittsburgh Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cataurus Hicks) to the PITT 41Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+7
93.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 7 yds to the PITT 48Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+5
93.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 5 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
93.2%
Juelz Goff run for 4 yds to the CMU 43Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
93.1%
Juelz Goff run for no gain to the CMU 43Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+10
92.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Juelz Goff for 10 yds to the CMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
93.0%
Juelz Goff run for 4 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
93.0%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Juelz GoffSimilar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+5
92.8%
Desmond Reid run for 5 yds to the CMU 24Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
92.7%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 6:048% → 11%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
92.4%
DeCorion Temple run for 1 yd to the CMU 25Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+3
92.3%
Trey Cornist run for 3 yds to the CMU 28Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+13
92.1%
Joe Labas pass complete to Tyson Davis for 13 yds to the CMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
91.7%
Brock Townsend run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 40Similar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
91.3%
Nahree Biggins run for 2 yds to the PITT 35Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
91.0%
Jadyn Glasser pass incomplete to DeCorion TempleSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+12
91.2%
Jadyn Glasser pass complete to Brock Townsend for 12 yds to the PITT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
90.7%
Jadyn Glasser run for 5 yds to the PITT 18Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+1
90.6%
Trey Cornist run for 1 yd to the PITT 17Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 4
OPP 17
-5
90.7%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Maiava,Dominique) 5 yards from Pitt17 to Pitt22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 9
OPP 22
-1
90.7%
Trey Cornist run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 23Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
89.5%
Cade Graham 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 1:1590% → 93%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
89.7%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Cataurus HicksSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+33
89.6%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 18 yds to the CMU 44 for a 1ST down Central Michigan Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Caleb Spann) to the CMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
90.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 19 yds to the CMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
90.1%
Desmond Reid run for 5 yds to the CMU 17Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+5
90.1%
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Holstein,Eli pass incomplete short right to Hicks,Cataurus thrown to CMU00 PENALTY CMU Offside (Demma,Korver) 5 yards from CMU17 to CMU12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
92.5%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Justin Holmes for 12 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:588% → 8%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.6%
Nahree Biggins run for no gain to the CMU 25Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
91.6%
Trey Cornist run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMU 22Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
91.9%
Joe Labas pass complete to DeCorion Temple for no gain to the CMU 22Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+20
92.0%
Zac Chapeau punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITT 48 , Desmond Reid returns for 20 yds to the PITT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:1292% → 94%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
92.3%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for no gain to the PITT 48Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
92.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Ja'Kyrian Turner for 1 yd to the PITT 49Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+20
91.7%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Deuce Spann for 20 yds to the CMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
92.1%
Central Michigan Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Fernando Sanchez III) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+21
92.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 21 yds to the CMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Josh Altsman for 2 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:266% → 6%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
93.7%
Angel Flores run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMU 38Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-5
94.2%
Angel Flores sacked by Zach Crothers for a loss of 5 yards to the CMU 33Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 17
OWN 33
+6
94.3%
Joe Labas pass complete to Justin Ruffin Jr. for 6 yds to the CMU 39Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
94.3%
Declan Duley punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:3994% → 97%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
94.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Zion Fowler-El for 6 yds to the CMU 43Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+13
94.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Justin Holmes for 13 yds to the CMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
94.5%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
94.4%
Desmond Reid run for 2 yds to the CMU 28Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 8
OPP 28
-10
94.3%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Holstein,Eli rush right for 8 yards gain to the CMU20 (Blackwell,Maddix) PENALTY Pitt Holding (Cooper,Lyndon) 10 yards from CMU28 to CMU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 18
OPP 38
+13
94.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Zion Fowler-El for 13 yds to the CMU 25Similar
Q2 2:08
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
97.1%
Trey Butkowski 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 0 yds · 0:323% → 3%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.6%
Jadyn Glasser run for 2 yds to the CMU 27Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
96.6%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Blum,Ryan) 5 yards from CMU27 to CMU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
96.7%
Central Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+3
96.7%
Nahree Biggins run for 3 yds to the CMU 25Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+54
96.8%
Declan Duley punt for 55 yds , Desmond Reid returns for 54 yds to the CMU 26Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+54
96.8%
Declan Duley punt for 55 yds , Desmond Reid returns for 54 yds to the PITT 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:3298% → 98%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
97.6%
Juelz Goff run for 6 yds to the PITT 22Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 4
OWN 22
-18
97.6%
Eli Holstein pass intercepted Jordan Kwiatkowski return for 18 yds to the PITT 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 13 yds · 0:364% → 8%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
95.7%
Angel Flores run for 3 yds to the PITT 10Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
95.9%
Angel Flores run for 3 yds to the PITT 7Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+3
96.1%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Glasser,Jadyn pass incomplete short middle to VanTimmeren,Nathan thrown to Pitt00 PENALTY Pitt Illegal Substitution 3 yards from Pitt07 to Pitt04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
96.1%
Jadyn Glasser pass incomplete to Nathan VanTimmerenSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
96.2%
Jadyn Glasser run for 2 yds to the PITT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
95.9%
Jadyn Glasser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
95.9%
Jadyn Glasser pass incomplete to Tommy McIntoshSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.3%
Jadyn Glasser run for 2 yds for a TD (Cade Graham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:0395% → 95%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
94.8%
Desmond Reid run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
50
+19
94.9%
Desmond Reid run for 19 yds to the CMU 31 for a 1ST down Pittsburgh Penalty, Illegal Block (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:227% → 7%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.2%
Joe Labas pass complete to Henry Dryden for 5 yds to the CMU 30Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
92.8%
Joe Labas pass complete to Tommy McIntosh for 9 yds to the CMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
92.7%
Joe Labas pass incomplete to Tommy McIntoshSimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
92.9%
Joe Labas run for 5 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+1
92.6%
Angel Flores run for 1 yd to the CMU 45Similar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
92.9%
Declan Duley punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1994% → 93%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
93.7%
Eli Holstein run for 6 yds to the PITT 16Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-1
93.7%
Desmond Reid run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 15Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+3
93.4%
Eli Holstein run for 3 yds to the PITT 18Similar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+2
93.1%
Caleb Junko punt for 47 yds , Caleb Spann returns for 2 yds to the CMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16TD
13 plays · 63 yds · 7:117% → 19%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
92.7%
Joe Labas pass complete to Justin Ruffin Jr. for 7 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+9
92.3%
Trey Cornist run for 9 yds to the PITT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
92.1%
Trey Cornist run for 4 yds to the PITT 43Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
92.0%
Nahree Biggins run for 2 yds to the PITT 41Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-10
92.1%
(07:38) Shotgun Glasser,Jadyn rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Pitt39 (Brookins,Cruce) PENALTY CMU Holding (Koivisto,Martin) 10 yards from Pitt41 to CMU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+10
93.0%
Jadyn Glasser pass complete to Nasir Williams for 10 yds to the PITT 41Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+8
92.4%
Jadyn Glasser pass complete to DeCorion Temple for 8 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
91.4%
Trey Cornist run for 3 yds to the PITT 30Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+2
91.4%
Joe Labas pass complete to Justin Ruffin Jr. for 2 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+1
92.0%
Joe Labas run for 1 yd to the PITT 27Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+21
93.1%
Joe Labas pass complete to Langston Lewis for 21 yds to the PITT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
81.5%
Joe Labas pass complete to DeCorion Temple for 6 yds for a TD (Cade Graham KICK)Similar
Q3 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
81.5%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
2 plays · 48 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.9%
Desmond Reid run for no gain to the CMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18FUMBLE
12 plays · 30 yds · 5:104% → 6%
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+48
95.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 48 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
93.7%
Joe Labas pass incomplete to Tommy McIntoshSimilar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-3
93.8%
Trey Cornist run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMU 18Similar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 13
OWN 18
+12
94.0%
Joe Labas pass complete to Tyson Davis for 12 yds to the CMU 30Similar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+1
93.6%
Joe Labas run for 1 yd to the CMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
93.9%
Nahree Biggins run for no gain to the CMU 31Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
94.1%
Angel Flores run for 14 yds to the CMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
93.6%
Jadyn Glasser sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the CMU 39Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 16
OWN 39
0
94.2%
Nahree Biggins run for no gain to the CMU 39Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+8
94.3%
Joe Labas pass complete to Brock Townsend for 8 yds to the CMU 47Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+4
93.9%
Joe Labas run for 4 yds to the PITT 46 Joe Labas fumbled, recovered by CMU Kyle LouisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20DOWNS
19 plays · 44 yds · 8:269% → 11%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+40
91.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 40 yds to the CMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
91.5%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
91.5%
(11:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Holstein,Eli pass incomplete short right to Hicks,Cataurus thrown to CMU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CMU Pass Interference (Snell,Aakeem) 12 yards from CMU14 to CMU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
91.7%
Juelz Goff run for no gain to the CMU 2Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.6%
Juelz Goff run for 2 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.7%
Angel Flores pass complete to Nahree Biggins for 2 yds to the CMU 27Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
85.9%
Angel Flores run for 4 yds to the CMU 31Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
86.2%
Angel Flores run for 5 yds to the CMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
85.1%
Trey Cornist run for no gain to the CMU 36Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
85.6%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Payne,Collin) 5 yards from CMU36 to CMU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+4
88.1%
Jadyn Glasser pass complete to Justin Ruffin Jr. for 4 yds to the CMU 35Similar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+18
88.9%
Jadyn Glasser pass complete to Collin Payne for 18 yds to the PITT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
84.6%
Nahree Biggins run for 1 yd to the PITT 46Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+26
84.5%
Jadyn Glasser pass complete to Camden Kruisenga for 26 yds to the PITT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
82.4%
Jadyn Glasser sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the PITT 25Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 15
OPP 25
-1
84.6%
Nahree Biggins run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 26 Nahree Biggins fumbled, recovered by CMU Nahree BigginsSimilar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 16
OPP 26
-5
87.1%
Angel Flores sacked by Isaiah Neal for a loss of 5 yards to the PITT 31Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 21
OPP 31
0
89.5%
Angel Flores pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21TD
1 play · 69 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 3:05
4TH & 21
OPP 31
0
89.5%
Angel Flores pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22END OF GAME TD
12 plays · -1 yds · 2:5662% → 49%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
61.5%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Josh Altsman for 9 yds to the PITT 40Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+1
65.0%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 1 yd to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
63.8%
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Heintschel,Mason pass incomplete short left to Altsman,Josh thrown to Pitt43 PENALTY CMU Roughing The Passer (Hayden,Keshawn) 15 yards from Pitt41 to CMU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
65.9%
Mason Heintschel pass incomplete to Max HuntSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
65.7%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 9 yds to the CMU 35Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+6
64.5%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 6 yds to the CMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
67.1%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Deuce Spann for 7 yds to the CMU 22Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+20
66.8%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Josh Altsman for 20 yds to the CMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.7%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 2 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
49.2%
Kadenn Rose run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+50.8
TD · Q3 3:01
Joe Labas pass complete to DeCorion Temple for 6 yds for a TD (Cade Graham KICK)
-11.5
TD · Q3 2:43
Desmond Reid run for no gain to the CMU 48
+11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com