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JMU

James Madison 14 at Louisville 28

LOU
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 5, 2025 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+3.6LOU 73.0%Cooper Ranvier 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 3 · Q2 5:21
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:21 · Cooper Ranvier 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior+21.8Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 5:21: Cooper Ranvier 22 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +3.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 10:10: Matthew Sluka run for 8 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK) — JMU win probability +16.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:37: Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 64 yds for a TD (M. Moss Run For Two-point Conversion) — LOU win probability +20.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. SACK · Q4 13:05: Alonza Barnett III sacked by Clev Lubin for a loss of 8 yards Alonza Barnett III fumbled, forced by Clev Lubin, recovered by LOU AJ Green , return for 0 yards for a TD (Cooper Ranvier PAT MISSED) — LOU win probability +15.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:31: Isaac Brown run for 78 yds for a TD (Miller Moss pass to Dacari Collins for Two-Point Conversion) — LOU win probability +7.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9JMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:50LOU 4th & 21 at LOU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:28JMU 4th & 10 at LOU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:36LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:19JMU 4th & 3 at LOU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    27.4%−1.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:24LOU 4th & 3 at JMU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−1.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:21LOU 4th & 4 at JMU 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.2%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−6.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:02JMU 4th & 1 at JMU 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.0%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:42JMU 4th & 19 at JMU 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−2.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:09LOU 4th & 8 at JMU 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−4.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:31JMU 4th & 10 at JMU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−2.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:00LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:31JMU 4th & 12 at JMU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−4.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 43, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:29JMU 4th & 7 at LOU 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%−0.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−3.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:31LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−3.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:25JMU 4th & 6 at JMU 35, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%−2.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:00LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2JMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:01JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:10JMU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:37LOU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:31LOU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    96.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:5984% → 84%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.3%
Isaac Brown run for no gain to the LOU 25Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
84.2%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 22Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-8
83.9%
Miller Moss sacked by Gannon Weathersby for a loss of 8 yards to the LOU 14Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
83.7%
David Chapeau punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Wayne Knight at the LOU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1516% → 16%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
83.6%
Isaiah Alston pass incomplete to Logan KyleSimilar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
83.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
83.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
83.7%
Patrick Rea punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4784% → 83%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.7%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
83.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 4 yds to the LOU 24Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+6
83.4%
Miller Moss run for 6 yds to the LOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
83.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 4 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+1
83.3%
Duke Watson run for 1 yd to the LOU 35Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+4
83.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 4 yds to the LOU 39Similar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
82.8%
Duke Watson run for no gain to the LOU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 39 yds · 5:2818% → 23%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
82.4%
Matthew Sluka run for 4 yds to the LOU 35Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
82.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Jaylan SanchezSimilar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
82.2%
Wayne Knight run for no gain to the LOU 35Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+9
82.2%
Louisville Penalty, Defensive Holding (9 Yards) to the LOU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
81.6%
Matthew Sluka run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 27Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+12
81.3%
George Pettaway run for 12 yds to the LOU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
81.0%
George Pettaway run for 2 yds to the LOU 13Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+5
80.8%
Matthew Sluka run for 5 yds to the LOU 8Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+3
80.7%
Jordan Fuller run for 3 yds to the LOU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
80.3%
Jordan Fuller run for no gain to the LOU 5Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
80.2%
Matthew Sluka run for 2 yds to the LOU 3Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Lacota Dippre for 3 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5FUMBLE
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:1078% → 78%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.3%
Isaac Brown run for no gain to the LOU 25Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.1%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
77.8%
Moss, Miller pass incomplete to Hurry, TreyShun, PENALTY JMU pass interference (Culp, Elijah) 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
78.6%
Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
78.5%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+5
77.9%
Keyjuan Brown run for 5 yds to the JMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+30
77.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 15 yds to the JMU 32 for a 1ST down James Madison Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the JMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
78.0%
Louisville Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the JMU 22Similar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 15
OPP 22
-9
77.6%
Miller Moss sacked by Jacob Thomas for a loss of 9 yards to the JMU 31 Miller Moss fumbled, forced by Jacob Thomas, recovered by JMU Xavier Holmes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 4:2025% → 28%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
75.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Nick DeGennaro for 9 yds to the JMU 40Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
74.3%
Wayne Knight run for 2 yds to the JMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
73.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for 7 yds to the JMU 49Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
73.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for 4 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
72.8%
George Pettaway run for 5 yds to the LOU 42Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+1
72.1%
George Pettaway run for 1 yd to the LOU 41Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+1
71.9%
Alonza Barnett III run for 1 yd to the LOU 40Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
71.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Landon EllisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 5:5274% → 73%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
73.8%
Isaac Brown run for 6 yds to the LOU 46Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
73.8%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+8
73.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 8 yds to the JMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
73.8%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
73.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Isaac Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the LOU 49Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+12
70.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Isaac Brown for 12 yds to the JMU 39Similar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+19
71.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 19 yds to the JMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
72.3%
Miller Moss run for 4 yds to the JMU 16Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+5
72.1%
James Madison Penalty, Delay of Game (Trent Hendrick) to the JMU 11Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+8
71.9%
Duke Watson run for 8 yds to the JMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
72.6%
James Madison Penalty, Offside Defense (2 Yards) to the JMU 1Similar
Q2 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.5%
Duke Watson run for no gain to the JMU 1Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
71.1%
Keyjuan Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the JMU 4Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
69.4%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q2 5:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
73.0%
Cooper Ranvier 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 3 yds · 3:2329% → 31%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
70.8%
Jordan Fuller run for 3 yds to the JMU 29Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
70.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for no gain to the JMU 29Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+6
70.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 6 yds to the JMU 35Similar
Q2 3:02
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+3
68.9%
Matthew Sluka run for 3 yds to the JMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
67.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 4 yds to the JMU 42Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
66.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for no gain to the JMU 42Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-5
66.1%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (Riley Robell) to the JMU 37Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 11
OWN 37
-8
68.0%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Wesley Bailey and Clev Lubin for a loss of 8 yards to the JMU 29Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 19
OWN 29
0
69.4%
Patrick Rea punt for 8 yds, downed at the JMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9FG
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:2672% → 72%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
71.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 7 yds to the JMU 30Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 3
OPP 30
0
73.5%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+8
71.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the JMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
73.3%
Louisville Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the JMU 27Similar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+7
72.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Isaac Brown for 7 yds to the JMU 20Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
70.7%
Isaac Brown run for no gain to the JMU 20Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
68.4%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
71.6%
Cooper Ranvier 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
69.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4431% → 54%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.8%
Wayne Knight run for no gain to the JMU 25Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
68.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 20 yds to the JMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
66.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Lacota DippreSimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
66.5%
Wayne Knight run for 4 yds to the JMU 49Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+15
65.7%
Barnett III, Alonza pass incomplete to Dippre, Lacota, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Holloway, Tayon) 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN JMU.Similar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
64.8%
James Madison Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the LOU 41Similar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+4
65.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 4 yds to the LOU 37Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+3
64.7%
Matthew Sluka run for 3 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+19
64.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Nick DeGennaro for 19 yds to the LOU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
62.3%
Alonza Barnett III run for 7 yds to the LOU 8Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
46.2%
Matthew Sluka run for 8 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2751% → 72%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.3%
Isaac Brown run for 7 yds to the LOU 32Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
52.8%
Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
51.2%
Duke Watson run for 2 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
71.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 64 yds for a TD (M. Moss Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5932% → 31%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.7%
Wayne Knight run for 6 yds to the JMU 31Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-6
66.0%
Alonza Barnett III run for a loss of 6 yards to the JMU 25Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
68.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Patrick Rea punt for 36 yds, downed at the LOU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2171% → 69%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
71.1%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 42Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
72.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+5
69.7%
James Madison Penalty, Delay of Game (Andrew Taddeo) to the LOU 47Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-3
71.5%
Caullin Lacy run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 44Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+51
68.6%
David Chapeau punt for 46 yds , Wayne Knight returns for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 43 James Madison Penalty, Offensive Holding (5 Yards) to the JMU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 4:2434% → 34%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
66.3%
Jordan Fuller run for 4 yds to the JMU 9Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+6
66.5%
Jordan Fuller run for 6 yds to the JMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
64.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Za'Ron Collins for 2 yds to the JMU 17Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+9
64.6%
Matthew Sluka run for 9 yds to the JMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
63.6%
Matthew Sluka run for 2 yds to the JMU 28Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-1
62.7%
Matthew Sluka sacked by Antonio Watts for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 27Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-3
64.3%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Rene Konga and Wesley Bailey for a loss of 3 yards to the JMU 24Similar
Q3 1:31
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
65.7%
Patrick Rea punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the LOU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2567% → 66%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
66.6%
Keyjuan Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 33Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+6
65.4%
Caullin Lacy run for 6 yds to the LOU 39Similar
Q3 0:19
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+4
66.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 4 yds to the LOU 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+1
65.9%
David Chapeau punt for 42 yds , Wayne Knight returns for 1 yd to the JMU 44 James Madison Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (8 Yards) to the JMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 17FUMBLE TD
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:3938% → 18%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
62.3%
Matthew Sluka run for 7 yds to the JMU 15Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 3
OWN 15
0
61.3%
Matthew Sluka run for no gain to the JMU 15Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 15
-7
62.4%
James Madison Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the JMU 8Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
78.4%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Clev Lubin for a loss of 8 yards Alonza Barnett III fumbled, forced by Clev Lubin, recovered by LOU AJ Green , return for 0 yards for a TD (Cooper Ranvier PAT MISSED)Similar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
82.5%
Louisville Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the LOU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 25 yds · 5:2626% → 24%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
73.8%
Jordan Fuller run for 7 yds to the JMU 46Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+3
73.9%
Matthew Sluka run for 3 yds to the JMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
73.0%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Wayne Knight for 6 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+3
71.5%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Nick DeGennaro for 3 yds to the LOU 42Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
73.4%
Matthew Sluka run for 3 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
73.2%
George Pettaway run for 1 yd to the LOU 38Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-6
73.8%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Jerry Lawson and Tayon Holloway for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 44Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 15
OPP 44
+8
78.1%
Jordan Fuller run for 8 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q4 7:29
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
76.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Nick DeGennaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5288% → 86%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
87.7%
Miller Moss sacked by Immanuel Bush for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 35Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
87.4%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
86.4%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Antonio MeeksSimilar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+2
86.0%
David Chapeau punt for 36 yds , Michael Scott returns for 2 yds to the JMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0123% → 19%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
77.3%
Matthew Sluka sacked by TJ Quinn for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 29Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+5
79.6%
Matthew Sluka run for 5 yds to the JMU 34Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+1
79.6%
Matthew Sluka run for 1 yd to the JMU 35Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
81.4%
Patrick Rea punt for 46 yds, downed at the LOU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 0:4990% → 99%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
89.7%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 22Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+78
97.6%
Isaac Brown run for 78 yds for a TD (Miller Moss pass to Dacari Collins for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+15
98.6%
James Madison Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22INT
10 plays · 37 yds · 1:554% → 5%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 9 yds to the JMU 34Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-10
95.2%
James Madison Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the JMU 24Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
95.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 6 yds to the JMU 30Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
95.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 6 yds to the JMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Logan KyleSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
95.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Logan Kyle for 7 yds to the JMU 43Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
95.4%
Matthew Sluka run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
50
+12
95.4%
Matthew Sluka run for 12 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
94.8%
Matthew Sluka pass intercepted Jabari Mack return for no gain to the LOU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:2099% → 99%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
99.1%
Duke Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 9Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+4
99.0%
Duke Watson run for 4 yds to the LOU 13Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+1
99.2%
Keyjuan Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 14Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
99.2%
David Chapeau punt for 26 yds, downed at the LOU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:452% → 2%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Jaylan SanchezSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
98.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Nick DeGennaroSimilar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+13
98.4%
Matthew Sluka run for 13 yds to the LOU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+26
98.1%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Landon Ellis for 26 yds to the LOU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.0%
Matthew Sluka pass incomplete to Jaylan SanchezSimilar
Q4 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.1%
Matthew Sluka run for no gain to the LOU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:37
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 64 yds for a TD (M. Moss Run For Two-point Conversion)
+20.3
TD · Q3 10:10
Matthew Sluka run for 8 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
-16.1
SACK · Q4 13:05
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Clev Lubin for a loss of 8 yards Alonza Barnett III fumbled, forced by Clev Lubin, recovered by LOU AJ Green , return for 0 yards for a TD (Cooper Ranvier PAT MISSED)
+15.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com