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UNC

North Carolina 20 at Charlotte 3

CLT
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDFGEnd of GameFG+0.1CLT 12.5%Rece Verhoff 49 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 0 · Q1 8:34
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:34 · Rece Verhoff 49 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Pregame prior−37.2Home team on offense−1.8Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 12:40: Liam Boyd 39 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +1.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:51: Timeout Charlotte, clock 02:51 — UNC win probability +3.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:50: Timeout North Carolina, clock 00:50 — UNC win probability +3.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:13: Davion Gause run for 12 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — UNC win probability +11.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:46: Rece Verhoff 33 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +0.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 12:18CLT 4th & 2 at CLT 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:34UNC 4th & 4 at CLT 31, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    81.8%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:13CLT 4th & 15 at CLT 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:08UNC 4th & 1 at CLT 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−0.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:08UNC 4th & 1 at CLT 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−0.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:30CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:07UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:40CLT 4th & 4 at UNC 22, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.0%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:51UNC 4th & 17 at CLT 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:51CLT 4th & 5 at UNC 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−5.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:39CLT 4th & 6 at UNC 20, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−3.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:36UNC 4th & 17 at UNC 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−2.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:41UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:54CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:00UNC 4th & 2 at CLT 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%−1.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−2.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:46UNC 4th & 8 at CLT 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−5.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:36UNC 4th & 1 at midfield, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:36UNC 4th & 1 at midfield, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%−0.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:01UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 39, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:01UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:13UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4389% → 89%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
11.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Benjamin Hall for 11 yds to the UNC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
11.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Caleb Hood for 13 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
11.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Chris Culliver for 51 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3711% → 12%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.4%
CJ Stokes run for 5 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
11.6%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Gus McGee for 1 yd to the CLT 31Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
11.7%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 2 yds to the CLT 33Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
11.8%
Bronson Long punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:3788% → 88%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
11.8%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the UNC 37Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
11.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Caleb Hood for 2 yds to the UNC 39Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+24
12.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Javarius Green for 24 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
12.1%
Charleston French run for 3 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+2
12.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Javarius Green for 2 yds to the CLT 32Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+1
12.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Charleston French for 1 yd to the CLT 31Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+49
12.5%
Rece Verhoff 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4813% → 13%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
12.5%
CJ Stokes run for a loss of 9 yards to the CLT 16Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+4
12.4%
CJ Stokes run for 4 yds to the CLT 20Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
12.6%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Javen NicholasSimilar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
12.6%
Bronson Long punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5587% → 87%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
12.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Aziah Johnson for 6 yds to the CLT 46Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+3
12.7%
Gio Lopez run for 3 yds to the CLT 43Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
13.0%
Davion Gause run for no gain to the CLT 43Similar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
13.2%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Javarius GreenSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
13.2%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Javarius GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2813% → 13%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
13.4%
Cameren Smith run for 2 yds to the CLT 45Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
13.4%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Justin OlsonSimilar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
13.3%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Justin OlsonSimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+6
13.2%
Bronson Long punt for 33 yds , Will Hardy returns for 6 yds to the UNC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1887% → 86%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
13.3%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Aziah JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
13.5%
Gio Lopez run for 5 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+15
13.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Chris Culliver for 15 yds to the UNC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
13.8%
Tom Maginness punt for 49 yds , Javen Nicholas returns for no gain to the CLT 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:0813% → 16%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
13.1%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Miles Burris for 15 yds to the CLT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
13.2%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Joey Bearns III for 4 yds to the CLT 37Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
13.5%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 4 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
13.6%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 3 yds to the CLT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
13.7%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 2 yds to the CLT 46Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-2
13.9%
CJ Stokes run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 44Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+28
13.7%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 13 yds to the UNC 43 for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (Khmori House) to the UNC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
14.7%
CJ Stokes run for 3 yds to the UNC 25Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
14.7%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Joey Bearns III for no gain to the UNC 25Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+3
14.5%
CJ Stokes run for 3 yds to the UNC 22Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+39
16.4%
Liam Boyd 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:1984% → 83%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
15.6%
Demon June run for 16 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
15.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Alex Taylor for 6 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+19
15.0%
Demon June run for 19 yds to the CLT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
14.9%
Demon June run for 2 yds to the CLT 38Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
15.0%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Jordan ShippSimilar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-15
15.2%
(10:12) Shotgun Lopez,Gio pass complete short left to Green,Javarius caught at CLT28, for 10 yards to the CLT28 (Baldwin,Thailand), out of bounds PENALTY UNC Personal Foul (Green,Trevyon) 15 yards from CLT38 to UNC47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 23
OWN 47
+6
16.2%
Davion Gause run for 6 yds to the CLT 47Similar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
16.8%
Tom Maginness punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 5:4616% → 19%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
16.4%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Sean Brown for 17 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
16.6%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 3 yds to the CLT 40Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-3
17.2%
Henry Rutledge run for a loss of 3 yards to the CLT 37Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+19
16.5%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 19 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
18.3%
Henry Rutledge run for 14 yds to the UNC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
19.2%
CJ Stokes run for 1 yd to the UNC 29Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+15
19.4%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Gus McGee for 15 yds to the UNC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
19.7%
Conner Harrell run for no gain to the UNC 14Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-4
19.9%
CJ Stokes run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNC 18Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+9
18.4%
Conner Harrell pass complete to CJ Stokes for 9 yds to the UNC 9Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
18.8%
Liam Boyd 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 2:2483% → 94%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
16.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Chris Culliver for 16 yds to the UNC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
15.8%
Gio Lopez run for 11 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
18.9%
Benjamin Hall run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNC 43Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+7
20.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Chris Culliver for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 7
50
+9
22.6%
Gio Lopez run for 9 yds to the CLT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
21.9%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Javarius GreenSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+8
18.5%
Gio Lopez run for 8 yds to the CLT 33Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+2
18.8%
Gio Lopez run for 2 yds to the CLT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
17.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
18.0%
Charlotte Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamarrion Solomon) to the CLT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
6.4%
Davion Gause run for 12 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
8.9%
C. Harrell takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:1112% → 13%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
12.2%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 16 yds to the CLT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
13.2%
CJ Stokes run for 5 yds to the CLT 46Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+10
13.4%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 10 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
13.6%
CJ Stokes run for 1 yd to the UNC 43Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+4
13.2%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 4 yds to the UNC 39Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+15
13.0%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Kameron Manley for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (Kaleb Cost) to the UNC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
13.8%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Javen Nicholas for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 25Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
13.6%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to E. Jai MasonSimilar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+5
13.0%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 5 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 6
OPP 20
0
12.7%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to E. Jai MasonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:5989% → 89%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
10.8%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Benjamin HallSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
10.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Benjamin Hall for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 19Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-1
10.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Caleb Hood for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 18Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 12
OWN 18
-5
10.6%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Patterson,Jaiden) 5 yards from UNC18 to UNC13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+5
10.6%
Tom Maginness punt for 55 yds , Javen Nicholas returns for 5 yds to the CLT 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -21 yds · 1:2711% → 10%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
11.4%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Javen NicholasSimilar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-10
10.8%
Conner Harrell run for a loss of 10 yards to the CLT 27Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 20
OWN 27
-11
10.3%
Conner Harrell sacked by Andrew Simpson for a loss of 11 yards to the CLT 16Similar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 31
OWN 16
+2
10.2%
Bronson Long punt for 49 yds , Javarius Green returns for 2 yds to the UNC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0791% → 91%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
8.7%
Caleb Hood run for 3 yds to the UNC 40Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
8.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Javarius Green for 5 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
8.5%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Javarius GreenSimilar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
9.1%
Tom Maginness punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:406% → 5%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
6.3%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 2 yds to the CLT 16Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+8
5.6%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 8 yds to the CLT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
5.4%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to CJ StokesSimilar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
5.4%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Jaylen HamptonSimilar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
5.3%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Jaylen HamptonSimilar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
5.2%
Bronson Long punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Javarius Green at the UNC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18FG
16 plays · 40 yds · 8:0092% → 97%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
8.0%
Caleb Hood run for 7 yds to the CLT 48Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+1
7.7%
Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the CLT 47Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+5
7.6%
Gio Lopez run for 5 yds to the CLT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
7.4%
Demon June run for 3 yds to the CLT 39Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
7.2%
Gio Lopez run for 4 yds to the CLT 35Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+1
7.1%
Jordan Shipp run for 1 yd to the CLT 34Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+7
6.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 7 yds to the CLT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
5.6%
Demon June run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 28Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 11
OPP 28
0
5.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Demon June for no gain to the CLT 28Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+11
4.6%
Demon June run for 11 yds to the CLT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
4.0%
Demon June run for 2 yds to the CLT 15Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+2
3.8%
Demon June run for 2 yds to the CLT 13Similar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-2
3.6%
Demon June run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 15Similar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
3.2%
Rece Verhoff 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · -15 yds · 2:422% → 2%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
2.1%
Cameren Smith run for 1 yd to the CLT 26Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
2.1%
Conner Harrell run for 8 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
2.3%
Cameren Smith run for 2 yds to the CLT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
2.2%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Justin OlsonSimilar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-15
2.2%
Charlotte Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the CLT 26Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 20
OWN 26
-16
2.2%
Conner Harrell run for a loss of 16 yards to the CLT 10Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 36
OWN 10
0
2.1%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Justin OlsonSimilar
Q4 7:59
4TH & 36
OWN 10
0
2.1%
Bronson Long punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1598% → 99%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
2.4%
Benjamin Hall run for 7 yds to the UNC 48Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
2.1%
Benjamin Hall run for no gain to the UNC 48Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
2.0%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 1
50
0
1.4%
Tom Maginness punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 11Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 1
50
0
1.4%
Tom Maginness punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21INT
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:282% → 1%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
1.5%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 4 yds to the CLT 10 Charlotte Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ta'ir Brooks) to the CLT 5Similar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 11
OWN 5
+8
1.2%
Grayson Loftis run for 8 yds to the CLT 13Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 3
OWN 13
0
1.2%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for no gain to the CLT 13Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+20
1.1%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 20 yds to the CLT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
1.1%
(03:46) Shotgun Loftis,Grayson pass intercepted by Gbayor,Mikai at CLT42 Gbayor,Mikai return 0 yards to the PENALTY UNC Illegal Substitution 5 yards from CLT33 to CLT38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 5
OWN 38
+16
1.2%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 16 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
1.1%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 12 yds to the UNC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+25
1.2%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Gus McGee for 25 yds to the UNC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-30
1.4%
Grayson Loftis pass intercepted Greg Smith return for 30 yds to the UNC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5599% → 99%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
0.8%
Gio Lopez run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNC 27Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+9
0.7%
Davion Gause run for 9 yds to the UNC 36Similar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
0.6%
Tom Maginness punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23INT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
0.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 11 yds to the CLT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
0.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Rod Gainey Jr. for 4 yds to the CLT 32Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
0.7%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Gus McGeeSimilar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+11
0.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 11 yds to the CLT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
0.7%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to E. Jai MasonSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
0.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Derrick Eley for 11 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
0.7%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-4
0.7%
Grayson Loftis pass intercepted Malcolm Ziglar return for 4 yds to the UNC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:13
Davion Gause run for 12 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
-11.6
KEY PLAY · Q2 2:51
Timeout Charlotte, clock 02:51
-3.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:50
Timeout North Carolina, clock 00:50
-3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com