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STAN

Stanford 3 at BYU 27

BYU
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:10 · Aidan Flintoft punt for 54 yds , Parker Kingston returns for 8 yds to the BYU 27 Parker Kingston fumbled, recovered by BYU
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Pregame prior+25.9Home team on offense+10.5Score differential+3.2Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:25: Bear Bachmeier run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — BYU win probability +1.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:52: Will Ferrin 30 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +2.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 9:11: Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Jojo Phillips — BYU win probability +1.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:56: Will Ferrin 21 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +2.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:36: Sione Moa run for 8 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:26STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:15BYU 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:13BYU 4th & 6 at STAN 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    88.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    88.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:41STAN 4th & 9 at BYU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56BYU 4th & 9 at STAN 17, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:52BYU 4th & 12 at STAN 12, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:17STAN 4th & 19 at STAN 16, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:59BYU 4th & 15 at STAN 45, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    89.9%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:03BYU 4th & 21 at BYU 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:10STAN 4th & 17 at STAN 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:15BYU 4th & 19 at STAN 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:56BYU 4th & 3 at STAN 3, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.9%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:57STAN 4th & 12 at STAN 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:00STAN 4th & 1 at BYU 43, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:31STAN 4th & 8 at BYU 8, down 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:33BYU 4th & 6 at STAN 6, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:24STAN 4th & 3 at BYU 45, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:38STAN 4th & 14 at BYU 27, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 3:25BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:36BYU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:288% → 9%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Micah Ford run for no gain to the STAN 25Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.6%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
91.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Bryce FarrellSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+9
91.5%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 50 yds , Parker Kingston returns for 9 yds to the BYU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2DOWNS
11 plays · 30 yds · 5:0891% → 90%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.4%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Jojo PhillipsSimilar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
91.3%
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
91.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 5 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
91.2%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
91.1%
Bear Bachmeier run for 3 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+4
90.9%
Bear Bachmeier run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 1
50
+6
90.7%
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the STAN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
90.7%
Bear Bachmeier sacked by Hunter Barth for a loss of 3 yards to the STAN 47Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+4
90.5%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 4 yds to the STAN 43Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+3
90.3%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the STAN 40Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
90.0%
Bear Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:0210% → 11%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
89.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 19 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
89.2%
Sedrick Irvin run for 1 yd to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
89.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sedrick IrvinSimilar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
89.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to C.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
89.4%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:4189% → 90%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+47
89.2%
LJ Martin run for 47 yds to the STAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
89.5%
LJ Martin run for 11 yds to the STAN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
89.4%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 6 yds to the STAN 21Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+17
89.3%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Sione Moa for 17 yds to the STAN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
89.1%
Bear Bachmeier run for 1 yd to the STAN 3Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.3%
Bear Bachmeier run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1610% → 11%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 6 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
89.0%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the STAN 32Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-26
89.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass intercepted Raider Damuni return for 26 yds to the STAN 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2190% → 90%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
89.9%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for a loss of 5 yards to the STAN 23Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 15
OPP 23
0
89.6%
LJ Martin run for no gain to the STAN 23Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 15
OPP 23
+6
89.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 6 yds to the STAN 17Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+36
89.5%
Will Ferrin 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · -13 yds · 1:4510% → 10%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
89.8%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the STAN 22Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+4
89.8%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the STAN 26Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 2
OWN 26
-5
89.8%
Stanford Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the STAN 21Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-5
90.0%
Stanford Penalty, False Start (Ziron Brown) to the STAN 16Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 12
OWN 16
-11
90.0%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Jack Kelly for a loss of 11 yards to the STAN 5 Ben Gulbranson fumbled, forced by Jack Kelly, recovered by BYU Viliami Po'uha , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8FG
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3890% → 91%
Q2 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-7
89.7%
Parker Kingston run for 3 yds to the STAN 2 BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Keayen Nead) to the STAN 12Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
-1
89.7%
Bear Bachmeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 13Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+7
89.6%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Jojo Phillips for 7 yds to the STAN 6Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
89.3%
Bear Bachmeier sacked by Tevarua Tafiti for a loss of 6 yards to the STAN 12Similar
Q2 10:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
91.4%
Will Ferrin 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:289% → 9%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
90.7%
Micah Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 24Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-8
90.9%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Keanu Tanuvasa for a loss of 8 yards to the STAN 16Similar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
91.0%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:1292% → 91%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
50
0
92.1%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Jojo PhillipsSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
50
+7
92.0%
LJ Martin run for 7 yds to the STAN 43Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+3
91.9%
Bear Bachmeier run for 3 yds to the STAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
91.8%
Parker Kingston run for 3 yds to the STAN 37Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+2
91.8%
Sione Moa run for 2 yds to the STAN 35Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-10
91.6%
Martin, LJ rush for 3 yards to the STAN32, PENALTY BYU illegal block 10 yards to the STAN45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 15
OPP 45
0
91.4%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Jojo PhillipsSimilar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
91.0%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 42 yds, downed at the STAN 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11SF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:369% → 8%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-2
90.8%
Micah Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 1Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 12
OWN 1
-1
91.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete for a SAFETY to Marcus Brown for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 2:3792% → 91%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
50
+2
92.1%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the STAN 48Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+2
92.1%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the STAN 46Similar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 6
OPP 46
-8
91.8%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Jojo Phillips for 2 yds to the BYU 44 BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 46Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 14
OWN 46
-7
91.7%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Sione Moa for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 21
OWN 39
0
91.3%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Collin Wright at the STAN 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:519% → 9%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
91.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 10 yds to the STAN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
91.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Micah Ford for 7 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+4
91.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 4 yds to the STAN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-9
91.3%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Isaiah Glasker for a loss of 9 yards to the STAN 25 Ben Gulbranson fumbled, forced by Isaiah Glasker, recovered by STAN Fisher Anderson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 19
OWN 25
0
91.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Caden HighSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 19
OWN 25
+2
91.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for 2 yds to the STAN 27Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 17
OWN 27
+8
91.3%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 54 yds , Parker Kingston returns for 8 yds to the BYU 27 Parker Kingston fumbled, recovered by BYUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:4591% → 92%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
91.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 15 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
91.7%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Jojo PhillipsSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+21
91.6%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Jojo Phillips for 21 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
91.8%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
91.8%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Parker KingstonSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-9
91.4%
Bear Bachmeier sacked by Clay Patterson for a loss of 9 yards to the STAN 46Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 19
OPP 46
0
91.6%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 41 yds, downed at the STAN 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
92.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 5:4293% → 95%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
92.5%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST down Stanford Penalty, Defensive Holding (Anthony Franklin) to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
92.6%
Bear Bachmeier run for 3 yds to the STAN 40 for a 1ST down Stanford Penalty, Personal Foul (Brandon Nicholson) to the STAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
92.9%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the STAN 43Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+9
92.9%
LJ Martin run for 9 yds to the STAN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
93.0%
Sione Moa run for 4 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
93.0%
Bachmeier, Bear pass incomplete to Roberts, Chase, PENALTY STAN illegal procedure (TEAM) 5 yards to the STAN25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+2
93.0%
Sione Moa run for 2 yds to the STAN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
93.1%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 7 yds to the STAN 16Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+1
93.1%
Sione Moa run for 1 yd to the STAN 15Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+5
92.9%
Sione Moa run for 5 yds to the STAN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
93.3%
Bear Bachmeier run for no gain to the STAN 10Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
93.4%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 7 yds to the STAN 3Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
93.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
95.3%
Will Ferrin 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:266% → 5%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.3%
Micah Ford run for 9 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
93.8%
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
94.6%
Micah Ford run for a loss of 4 yards to the STAN 32Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
95.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to C.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+2
95.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 2 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+44
95.3%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 53 yds , Tiger Bachmeier returns for 44 yds to the STAN 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:5196% → 99%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
96.1%
Bear Bachmeier run for 9 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
96.2%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the STAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
96.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to LJ Martin for 8 yds to the STAN 24Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+16
96.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 16 yds to the STAN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.6%
Sione Moa run for 8 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 7:362% → 1%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Brendan Doyle for 3 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
98.5%
Tuna Altahir run for 4 yds to the STAN 32Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
98.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Marcus Brown for 3 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
98.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 13 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
98.6%
Ben Gulbranson run for 6 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+3
98.7%
Tuna Altahir run for 3 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
98.7%
Micah Ford run for no gain to the BYU 43Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+4
98.9%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
99.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for 26 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
98.9%
Tuna Altahir run for 9 yds to the BYU 4Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+1
98.9%
Tuna Altahir run for 1 yd to the BYU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
98.9%
Tuna Altahir run for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 8Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
98.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Brendan DoyleSimilar
Q4 10:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Marcus BrownSimilar
Q4 10:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
99.0%
Emmet Kenney 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:2399% → 99%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
99.1%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 41 yds to the STAN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.2%
LJ Martin run for 4 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
99.2%
LJ Martin run for no gain to the STAN 30Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+25
99.3%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 25 yds to the STAN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.3%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Parker KingstonSimilar
Q4 7:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
99.3%
LJ Martin run for 4 yds to the STAN 1Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 0
OPP 1
-5
99.3%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Isaiah Jatta) to the STAN 6Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.3%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Parker KingstonSimilar
Q4 6:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
99.4%
Will Ferrin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21INT
16 plays · 51 yds · 3:261% → 0%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+26
99.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 26 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
99.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 7 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
99.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Micah FordSimilar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
99.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sam RoushSimilar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+5
99.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 5 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to C.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
99.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 9 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+8
99.5%
Tuna Altahir run for 8 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
99.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for 1 yd to the BYU 22Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-5
99.5%
Stanford Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the BYU 27Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 14
OPP 27
0
99.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sam RoushSimilar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 14
OPP 27
0
99.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sedrick IrvinSimilar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 14
OPP 27
-24
99.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass intercepted Faletau Satuala return for 24 yds to the BYU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · 13 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
99.6%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
99.7%
Sione Moa run for 7 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+6
99.7%
Jovesa Damuni run for 6 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:36
Sione Moa run for 8 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
+2.3
FG · Q2 10:52
Will Ferrin 30 yd FG GOOD
+2.1
FG · Q3 8:56
Will Ferrin 21 yd FG GOOD
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com