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BAY

Baylor 48 at SMU 45

SMU
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q2Q4Q3OTOT2Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4OTTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:55 · Sawyer Robertson sacked by Ahmaad Moses for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTime remaining
+20.5+10.30−10.3−20.5Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q2Q4Q3OTOT2Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4OTPlay 14Home team on offense+0.7Pregame prior+2.3Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:21: T.J. Harden 3 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick) — SMU win probability +5.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:07: Josh Cameron 33 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick) — BAY win probability +10.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Bryson Washington run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK) — SMU win probability +5.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · OT2 15:00: Timeout SMU, clock 15:00 — SMU win probability +7.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 14:57: Kevin Jennings run for 7 yds to the — SMU win probability +14.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:55BAY 4th & 9 at SMU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:03SMU 4th & 7 at BAY 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:07BAY 4th & 4 at SMU 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:14BAY 4th & 2 at SMU 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−0.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:38SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:37SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.6%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:37SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.3%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:36SMU 4th & 18 at BAY 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−2.1
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:45BAY 4th & 1 at SMU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−3.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:45BAY 4th & 1 at SMU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−3.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:35BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 28, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:29BAY 4th & 1 at SMU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%−5.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−3.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:04BAY 4th & 9 at SMU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−10.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:41SMU 4th & 24 at SMU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−4.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:35BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 28, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:48SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:12BAY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:21SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:07BAY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
52.6%
Romello Brinson 75 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 22 yds · 4:4247% → 45%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
52.7%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
52.9%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
53.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+10
53.2%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete deep left to Wilson,Kole thrown to SMU31 PENALTY SMU Holding (Spencer,La'Modrick) 10 yards from BAY42 to SMU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
53.1%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-1
53.3%
Bryson Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+11
53.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
53.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Caden Knighten for 6 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+1
53.7%
Caden Knighten run for 1 yd to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+6
54.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 9
OPP 35
-8
55.0%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Ahmaad Moses for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:4656% → 57%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
55.7%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+4
56.1%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
56.2%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the BAY 45Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+16
56.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 16 yds to the BAY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
56.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to T.J. Harden for 2 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
56.9%
T.J. Harden run for no gain to the BAY 27Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+1
57.1%
Kevin Jennings run for 1 yd to the BAY 26Similar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
56.8%
Collin Rogers 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:3444% → 42%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
56.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 16 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
56.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for no gain to the BAY 47Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
56.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+6
56.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 6 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+13
57.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 13 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
56.1%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+7
56.2%
Bryson Washington run for 7 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
56.7%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 2
OPP 26
-1
58.1%
Bryson Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:2560% → 59%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
59.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 7 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+6
60.0%
T.J. Harden run for 6 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
60.3%
Kevin Jennings run for 3 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-5
60.7%
Kevin Jennings run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+8
59.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Link Rhodes for 8 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+3
59.2%
Wade McSparron punt for 38 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 3 yds to the BAY 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 3:1740% → 46%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
60.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 17 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
59.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 9 yds to the BAY 45Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
58.9%
Caden Knighten run for 2 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
59.4%
Sawyer Robertson run for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+7
59.7%
Bryson Washington run for 7 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
59.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-10
60.1%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short right to Wilson,Kole thrown to SMU43 PENALTY BAY Holding (Fugar,Sidney) 10 yards from SMU42 to BAY48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 20
OWN 48
+15
61.3%
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short left to Hawkins,Ashtyn thrown to SMU33 PENALTY SMU Pass Interference (Harmon,Deuce) 15 yards from BAY48 to SMU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
60.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 9 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 1
OPP 28
0
59.1%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+28
53.8%
Kobe Prentice 28 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:4056% → 66%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
56.0%
Kevin Jennings run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+8
55.5%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+3
56.7%
Kevin Jennings run for 3 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+6
56.3%
Kevin Jennings run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
50
+3
58.1%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-5
58.4%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Jennings,Kevin pass complete short right to Cooper,Jalen caught at BAY45, for 2 yards to the BAY45, End Of Play PENALTY SMU Illegal Formation 5 yards from BAY47 to SMU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+3
57.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for 3 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+4
57.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 19 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Romello Brinson) to the BAY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+28
59.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for 28 yds to the BAY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
60.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 3 yds to the BAY 14Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+11
60.5%
Kevin Jennings run for 7 yds to the BAY 7 for a 1ST down Baylor Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Kyland Reed) to the BAY 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
66.1%
T.J. Harden 3 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8END OF HALF
13 plays · 1 yds · 12:0161% → 70%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
61.1%
Kevin Jennings run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+8
60.9%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+3
62.3%
Kevin Jennings run for 3 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+6
61.9%
Kevin Jennings run for 6 yds to the Similar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
50
+3
63.8%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+5
63.7%
Kevin Jennings pass to Jalen Cooper, SMU Penalty, illegalformation (5 Yards)Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+3
63.2%
Kevin Jennings pass to Chris Johnson Jr. for 3 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+34
62.9%
Kevin Jennings pass to Romello Brinson for 19 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST down, SMU Penalty, unsportsmanlikeconduct (Romello Brinson)Similar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+28
64.7%
Kevin Jennings pass to Chris Johnson Jr. for 28 yds to the BAY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
65.4%
Kevin Jennings pass to RJ Maryland for 3 yds to the BAY 14Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+11
65.9%
Kevin Jennings run for 7 yds to the BAY 7, Baylor Penalty, horsecollartackle (Kyland Reed)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
69.9%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0535% → 47%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
65.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 19 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
63.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
64.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 10 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
63.4%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+8
63.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 8 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
63.7%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+33
53.5%
Josh Cameron 33 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10MISSED FG
15 plays · 19 yds · 11:3657% → 60%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
57.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass to Ashtyn Hawkins for 19 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
55.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
55.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass to Ashtyn Hawkins for 10 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
54.7%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+8
54.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass to Josh Cameron for 8 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
54.8%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
63.5%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jalen CooperSimilar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
63.2%
Kevin Jennings run for no gain to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+16
61.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 16 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
64.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 6 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+5
64.9%
T.J. Harden run for 5 yds to the BAY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
65.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to T.J. Harden for 9 yds to the BAY 35Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 19
OPP 35
0
63.6%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 19
OPP 35
+1
61.9%
Derrick McFall run for 1 yd to the BAY 34Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 18
OPP 34
+51
59.6%
Collin Rogers 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
58.1%
Jalen Cooper 75 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 3:5942% → 47%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
57.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the BAY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
57.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 13 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
55.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
56.3%
Caden Knighten run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 5
50
+4
55.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 4 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+4
56.4%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
54.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 5 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+13
53.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 13 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
52.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 9 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+8
52.7%
Bryson Washington run for 8 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
52.7%
Bryson Washington 7 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13PUNT
15 plays · 8 yds · 18:0142% → 45%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
57.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the BAY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
57.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass to Ashtyn Hawkins for 13 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
55.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
56.3%
Caden Knighten run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 5
50
+4
55.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass to Ashtyn Hawkins for 4 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+4
56.2%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the Similar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
54.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass to Michael Trigg for 5 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+13
53.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass to Ashtyn Hawkins for 13 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
52.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass to Michael Trigg for 9 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+8
52.7%
Bryson Washington run for 8 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
52.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Louis Brown IVSimilar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
52.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 8 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
52.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+4
55.0%
Palmer Williams punt for 51 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 4 yds to the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 16:5545% → 22%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
55.0%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
75.5%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
77.8%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the BAY 35 Bryson Washington fumbled, recovered by SMU Cameron RobertsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:1533% → 34%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+27
66.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 27 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
65.2%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the BAY 45Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
66.0%
Bryson Washington run for 9 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
64.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-1
66.2%
Bryson Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 5:2732% → 30%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
68.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+28
68.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 28 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
65.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 5 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+2
63.8%
Caden Knighten run for 2 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+8
65.9%
Sawyer Robertson run for 8 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
64.2%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete deep right to Prentice,Kobe thrown to SMU00 PENALTY BAY Holding (Price,Coleton) 10 yards from SMU23 to SMU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+10
65.9%
Sawyer Robertson run for 10 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
65.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 3 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+13
66.4%
Bryson Washington run for 13 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
64.7%
(06:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Washington,Bryson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SMU04 (Nwokobia,Isaiah) PENALTY BAY Holding (Johnson,Kelsey) 10 yards from SMU07 to SMU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
0
65.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Caden KnightenSimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+8
66.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 8 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
67.8%
Baylor Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jackie Marshall) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
69.8%
Connor Hawkins 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1775% → 73%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
75.3%
Baylor Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
77.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to T.J. Harden for 1 yd to the SMU 41 SMU Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Kevin Jennings) to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 14
OWN 36
0
75.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Yamir KnightSimilar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
74.8%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 24
OWN 26
+52
73.2%
Wade McSparron punt for 43 yds , Josh Cameron returns for no gain to the BAY 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 35:0476% → 79%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
75.5%
Chris Johnson Jr. run, Baylor Penalty, unnecessaryroughness (Kendrick Simpkins)Similar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
77.3%
Kevin Jennings pass to T.J. Harden, SMU Penalty, illegalforwardpass (Kevin Jennings)Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
75.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 14
OWN 36
-10
74.8%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Travion Barnes for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 24
OWN 26
+43
73.1%
Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 2
OPP 3
+2
79.0%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:5081% → 81%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
80.9%
T.J. Harden run for 9 yds to the BAY 13Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+1
81.0%
T.J. Harden run for 1 yd to the BAY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
81.3%
Kevin Jennings pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:5081% → 81%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
80.9%
T.J. Harden run for 9 yds to the BAY 13Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+1
81.0%
T.J. Harden run for 1 yd to the BAY 12Similar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
81.3%
Kevin Jennings pass intercepted for touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21MISSED FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0226% → 22%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
74.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass to Bryson Washington for 8 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
74.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+4
77.8%
Palmer Williams punt for 51 yds to the , Yamir Knight returns for 4 yds to the SMU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0556% → 61%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.2%
T.J. Harden run for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.9%
T.J. Harden run for no gain to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
57.3%
(00:38) No Huddle-Shotgun Jennings,Kevin pass incomplete deep left to Brinson,Romello thrown to BAY34 PENALTY BAY Pass Interference (Williams III,Tevin) 15 yards from SMU36 to BAY49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
61.3%
Dramekco Green run for 2 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+7
61.7%
Kevin Jennings run for 7 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+40
61.2%
T.J. Harden 40 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3256% → 62%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.2%
T.J. Harden run for 11 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+28
57.9%
T.J. Harden runSimilar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
57.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete, Baylor Penalty, passinterference (Tevin Williams III)Similar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
61.2%
Dramekco Green run for 2 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+7
61.7%
Kevin Jennings run for 7 yds to the Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24DOWNS
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
41.1%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the SMU 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+15
41.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass to Josh Cameron for 15 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
41.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete, SMU Penalty, passinterference (Jaelyn Davis-Robinson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-56
FG · Q4 14:57
Kevin Jennings run for 7 yds to the
+14.4
TD · Q2 5:07
Josh Cameron 33 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)
-10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com