Try the model
TCU

TCU 48 at North Carolina 14

UNC
2025 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2025 · Kenan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:53 · Tom Maginness punt for 26 yds, downed at the TCU 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Home team on offense−7.8Score differential−4.3Pregame prior−7.0Garbage-time factor−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:08: Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 27 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK) — TCU win probability +3.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:57: Gio Lopez pass intercepted Bud Clark return for 25 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK) — TCU win probability +10.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Kyle Lemmermann 33 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +5.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:48: Kevorian Barnes run for 75 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK) — TCU win probability +14.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:30: Trent Battle run for 28 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK) — TCU win probability +4.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:54TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:39UNC 4th & 21 at UNC 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:37UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:13TCU 4th & 12 at UNC 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:40UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:53UNC 4th & 4 at TCU 46, down 10
    Close callPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:29UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 34, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:40UNC 4th & 2 at TCU 15, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:53TCU 4th & 21 at TCU 14, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:40UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 23, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:20TCU 4th & 4 at UNC 39, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:55UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:08TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:57TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:48TCU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:30TCU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:29UNC Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:21TCU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 3:5037% → 40%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
36.8%
Caleb Hood run for 9 yds to the UNC 26Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+3
37.1%
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the UNC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
37.3%
Caleb Hood run for 8 yds to the UNC 37Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+39
37.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 39 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
38.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 19 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
38.6%
Gio Lopez run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 8Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
40.3%
Caleb Hood run for 8 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:5160% → 59%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
39.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 12 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
40.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 2 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
40.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
41.0%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
41.4%
Ethan Craw punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 2:1541% → 42%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
41.3%
North Carolina Penalty, False Start (Eidan Buchanan) to the UNC 30Similar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
41.3%
Davion Gause run for no gain to the UNC 30Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 15
OWN 30
-8
42.0%
Gio Lopez sacked by Zach Chapman for a loss of 8 yards to the UNC 22Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 23
OWN 22
+2
42.1%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the UNC 24Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 21
OWN 24
0
42.4%
Tom Maginness punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:2257% → 61%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
42.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+15
43.0%
Hoover, Josh pass incomplete to Dwyer, Jordan, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Allen, Marcus) 15 yards to the UNC44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
42.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordyn Bailey for 4 yds to the UNC 40Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
42.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the UNC 35Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
42.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 2 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
42.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+27
39.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 27 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2841% → 40%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.7%
Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the UNC 26Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
40.8%
Caleb Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 25Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
40.6%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Jordan ShippSimilar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
40.4%
Tom Maginness punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jordan Dwyer at the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6FG
16 plays · 55 yds · 6:1760% → 59%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
40.5%
Jeremy Payne run for no gain to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+10
40.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 10 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
40.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
40.3%
Josh Hoover run for 3 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+6
40.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
50
+7
39.9%
Kevorian Barnes run for 7 yds to the UNC 43Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+3
39.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
40.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 9 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+4
39.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the UNC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
39.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 14 yds to the UNC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-15
39.8%
Hoover, Josh pass incomplete to Dwyer, Jordan, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Dwyer, Jordan) 15 yards to the UNC28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 25
OPP 28
+13
40.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 13 yds to the UNC 15Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+5
40.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 5 yds to the UNC 10Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
40.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Chase CurtisSimilar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 7
OPP 10
-5
42.0%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Ryan Hughes) to the UNC 15Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+32
40.7%
Kyle Lemmermann 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2341% → 39%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
40.9%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Alex TaylorSimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-3
40.9%
Gio Lopez run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNC 19Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+4
40.1%
Benjamin Hall run for 4 yds to the UNC 23Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
39.4%
Tom Maginness punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jordan Dwyer at the TCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8INT
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:1860% → 62%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
40.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 12 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
39.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jeremy PayneSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
39.5%
Jeremy Payne run for 1 yd to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+21
40.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 21 yds to the UNC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
37.5%
Jeremy Payne run for 3 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
37.1%
Jeremy Payne run for 5 yds to the UNC 26Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+3
37.9%
Jeremy Payne run for 3 yds to the UNC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
37.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 3 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+3
37.1%
Jeremy Payne run for 3 yds to the UNC 17Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
38.0%
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Kaleb Cost return for no gain to the UNC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9INT TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1341% → 31%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
40.8%
Benjamin Hall run for 4 yds to the UNC 23Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+2
41.1%
Benjamin Hall run for 2 yds to the UNC 25Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 25
-25
30.3%
Gio Lopez pass intercepted Bud Clark return for 25 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
30.5%
TCU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bud Clark) to the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5231% → 29%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
31.1%
Caleb Hood run for 3 yds to the UNC 38Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+10
31.6%
Benjamin Hall run for 10 yds to the UNC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
31.8%
Caleb Hood run for 3 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+3
32.2%
Gio Lopez run for 3 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
30.8%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Jordan ShippSimilar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
29.3%
Tom Maginness punt for 26 yds, downed at the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11END OF HALF
11 plays · 63 yds · 0:4870% → 80%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
29.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 5 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+12
29.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 12 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
28.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
28.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 11 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
28.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 18 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
26.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 7 yds to the UNC 26Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+10
26.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 10 yds to the UNC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
25.9%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+33
20.0%
Kyle Lemmermann 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
12.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 75 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0017% → 14%
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
16.9%
Gio Lopez run for 3 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+3
17.6%
Gio Lopez run for 3 yds to the UNC 35Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-1
17.9%
Benjamin Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 34Similar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
14.3%
Tom Maginness punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jordan Dwyer at the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:5089% → 97%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
11.5%
Jeremy Payne run for 13 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
10.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+18
10.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for 18 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
8.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 6 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+11
7.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 11 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
7.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-10
7.5%
Payne, Jeremy rush for 21 yards to the UNC17, PENALTY TCU holding (Manjack IV, Joseph) 10 yards to the UNC48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 20
OPP 48
0
7.6%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 20
OPP 48
+20
7.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 20 yds to the UNC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
2.8%
Trent Battle run for 28 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15FUMBLE TD
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:233% → 2%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
2.8%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Chris CulliverSimilar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
2.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Caleb Hood for 15 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
2.7%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-4
2.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Davion Gause for a loss of 4 yards to the UNC 42Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+37
1.9%
Gio Lopez sacked by Jonathan Bax for a loss of 5 yards Gio Lopez fumbled, forced by Jonathan Bax, recovered by TCU Devean Deal , return for 0 yards , return for 37 yds (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 6:162% → 1%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
1.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Javarius Green for 2 yds to the UNC 22Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
1.6%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Benjamin HallSimilar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+16
1.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 16 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+39
1.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Javarius Green for 39 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
2.1%
North Carolina Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+2
2.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Davion Gause for 2 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+1
1.8%
Davion Gause run for 1 yd to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+10
0.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Davion Gause for 10 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+3
0.6%
Davion Gause run for 3 yds to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
0.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 10 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:3298% → 99%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
1.5%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordyn BaileySimilar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-13
0.9%
Hoover, Josh pass complete to Dwyer, Jordan for 11 yards to the TCU38, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Rogers, DJ) 13 yards to the TCU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
0.8%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Trent BattleSimilar
Q4 13:53
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
0.9%
Ethan Craw punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the TCU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 25 yds · 2:031% → 1%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
1.2%
Davion Gause run for 3 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+16
0.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Javarius Green for 16 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
0.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Alex Taylor for 6 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 4
OPP 24
0
0.5%
Davion Gause run for no gain to the TCU 24 Davion Gause fumbled, recovered by TCU Zach ChapmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
0.5%
Nate Palmer run for 16 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
0.4%
Nate Palmer run for 26 yds to the UNC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+33
0.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 33 yds to the UNC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
0.3%
Nate Palmer run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNC 4Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
0.2%
Caleb Hood run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNC 22Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
0.2%
Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the UNC 23Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
0.2%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Javarius GreenSimilar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
0.2%
Tom Maginness punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21END OF GAME
13 plays · 47 yds · 7:30100% → 100%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
0.2%
Jon Denman run for 5 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
0.2%
Jon Denman run for 4 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
0.2%
Jon Denman run for 2 yds to the UNC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
0.2%
Jon Denman run for 4 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
0.2%
Nate Palmer run for 2 yds to the UNC 39Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
0.2%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Dozie EzukanmaSimilar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+4
0.2%
Nate Palmer run for 4 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
0.2%
Jon Denman run for 6 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+2
0.1%
Jon Denman run for 2 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+3
0.1%
Jon Denman run for 3 yds to the UNC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
0.1%
Nate Palmer run for 5 yds to the UNC 19Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+11
0.1%
Nate Palmer run for 11 yds to the UNC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:48
Kevorian Barnes run for 75 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
-14.2
TD · Q2 3:57
Gio Lopez pass intercepted Bud Clark return for 25 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
-10.8
FG · Q2 0:00
Kyle Lemmermann 33 yd FG GOOD
-5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com