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Notre Dame 24 at Miami 27

MIA
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:05 · Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ND 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+21.0+10.50−10.5−21.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:21: CJ Carr pass complete to Micah Gilbert for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — ND win probability +11.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:12: Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 20 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK) — MIA win probability +11.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:55: Jordan Faison 1 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette Kick) — ND win probability +18.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:21: CJ Carr run for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — ND win probability +37.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:04: Carter Davis 47 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +29.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 9ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:39ND 4th & 9 at MIA 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:00MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:10MIA 4th & 1 at ND 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.7%−0.4
    83% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:53MIA 4th & 8 at ND 10, tied
    Close callWent for it · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:46ND 4th & 3 at ND 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:33ND 4th & 4 at ND 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:10MIA 4th & 18 at MIA 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−2.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:01ND 4th & 10 at ND 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:11MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 23, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:45MIA 4th & 14 at MIA 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−5.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:42MIA 4th & 2 at ND 20, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%−1.6
    75% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−11.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:32ND 4th & 10 at MIA 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:35MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:04MIA 4th & 3 at ND 29, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.1%−1.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−27.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:03MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:21ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:12MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:23MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:55ND Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:21ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:1160% → 59%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
40.0%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 23Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
40.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 5 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
40.4%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 14 yds to the ND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
40.4%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 15 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
40.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the MIA 42Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
40.6%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jeremiyah LoveSimilar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
40.7%
CJ Carr pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
41.0%
James Rendell punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:2641% → 42%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
41.0%
Jordan Lyle run for 5 yds to the MIA 10Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+14
41.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 14 yds to the MIA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
41.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 5 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+5
41.7%
Jordan Lyle run for 5 yds to the MIA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
42.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Joshua Moore for 8 yds to the MIA 42Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 2
OWN 42
0
42.4%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Joshisa TraderSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
42.2%
Jordan Lyle run for no gain to the MIA 42Similar
Q1 8:00
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+7
42.1%
Dylan Joyce punt for 43 yds , Jordan Faison returns for 7 yds to the ND 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
42.0%
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 2 yds Malachi Fields fumbled, forced by Justin Scott, recovered by MIA Jakobe ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 4 yds · 3:5143% → 44%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
43.2%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
43.2%
Jordan Lyle run for 1 yd to the ND 23Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+8
43.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 8 yds to the ND 15Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+3
43.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the ND 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
44.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the ND 7Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 5
OPP 7
-3
44.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 10Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
44.4%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 8
OPP 10
-8
43.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the ND 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MIA Dylan Joyce TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the ND 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MIA Dylan JoyceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0057% → 56%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
43.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
42.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the ND 29Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-2
42.9%
CJ Carr run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 27Similar
Q1 1:46
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
44.1%
James Rendell punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:3444% → 52%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
44.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 15 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
45.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 48Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
45.9%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Keelan MarionSimilar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+13
45.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 13 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
46.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 11 yds to the ND 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
46.9%
Jordan Lyle run for no gain to the ND 28Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
47.1%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+28
51.7%
Malachi Toney 28 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1850% → 48%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
50.5%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 3 yds to the ND 18Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+3
50.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 21Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
51.9%
CJ Carr pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
52.5%
James Rendell punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0952% → 51%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
52.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 36Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
52.7%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-10
52.0%
Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (Samson Okunlola) to the MIA 26Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 18
OWN 26
0
51.5%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Malachi ToneySimilar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 18
OWN 26
+2
51.0%
Dylan Joyce punt for 44 yds , Jordan Faison returns for 2 yds to the ND 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 5:3949% → 59%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
51.5%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+6
52.0%
CJ Carr run for 6 yds to the ND 40Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+2
51.5%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
52.3%
Jadarian Price run for 14 yds to the MIA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
51.2%
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the MIA 43Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+10
52.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Micah Gilbert for 10 yds to the MIA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
51.3%
CJ Carr pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+30
51.7%
Jadarian Price run for 30 yds to the MIA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
52.2%
CJ Carr run for no gain to the MIA 3Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
52.7%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIA 7 Jadarian Price fumbled, forced by Wesley Bissainthe, recovered by ND CJ CarrSimilar
Q2 5:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
41.3%
CJ Carr pass complete to Micah Gilbert for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0148% → 65%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.8%
CharMar Brown run for 5 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
48.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 7 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
49.2%
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the MIA 40Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
50.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds to the MIA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
51.2%
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the ND 48Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+10
51.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to CharMar Brown for 10 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
52.1%
CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+7
53.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 7 yds to the ND 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
53.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to CharMar Brown for 7 yds to the ND 20Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+20
65.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 20 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
61.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 7:3762% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
62.1%
Miami Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MIA 20Similar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
61.9%
Carson Beck run for 5 yds to the MIA 25Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 27Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
61.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 15 yds to the MIA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
65.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 2
50
+11
67.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 11 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
67.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 9 yds to the ND 30Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+3
68.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the ND 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
68.9%
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the ND 25Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
70.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Joshua Moore for no gain to the ND 25Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+16
70.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 16 yds to the ND 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
73.2%
CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the ND 5Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
84.6%
CharMar Brown run for 5 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1820% → 19%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.4%
CJ Carr pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
80.5%
CJ Carr pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
80.9%
CJ Carr pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.5%
James Rendell punt for 55 yds , Malachi Toney returns for 9 yds to the MIA 34 Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (David Blay Jr.) to the MIA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4484% → 84%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
83.7%
CharMar Brown run for 6 yds to the MIA 20Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+3
84.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 3 yds to the MIA 23Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
84.1%
CharMar Brown run for no gain to the MIA 23Similar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
83.8%
Dylan Joyce punt for 41 yds, downed at the ND 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:5518% → 34%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
81.9%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 5 yds to the ND 41Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
81.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 6 yds to the ND 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
81.4%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Eli RaridonSimilar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+13
82.6%
CJ Carr run for 13 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
82.5%
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 26 yds to the MIA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
81.1%
Notre Dame Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIA 24Similar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+11
82.4%
Miami Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the MIA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
81.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the MIA 11Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+3
82.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the MIA 8Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+6
84.4%
CJ Carr run for 6 yds to the MIA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
84.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the MIA 1 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Yards) to the MIA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the MIA 1Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.3%
Jordan Faison 1 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 1:4680% → 78%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the MIA 31Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-10
80.9%
Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (Anez Cooper) to the MIA 21Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+7
79.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 7 yds to the MIA 28Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-7
79.0%
Carson Beck sacked by Boubacar Traore for a loss of 7 yards to the MIA 21Similar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
78.4%
Dylan Joyce punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:4025% → 26%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
75.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the ND 43Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-12
74.1%
CJ Carr pass intercepted Rueben Bain Jr. return for 12 yds to the ND 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0885% → 85%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
84.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the ND 22Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+1
85.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the ND 21Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+1
85.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the ND 20Similar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+38
84.7%
Carter Davis 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:0813% → 18%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.8%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 5 yds to the ND 30Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
85.4%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 7 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
85.5%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 9 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+20
84.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 20 yds to the MIA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
84.7%
CJ Carr run for 7 yds to the MIA 27Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+6
82.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the MIA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-11
85.8%
CJ Carr sacked by Ahmad Moten Sr. for a loss of 11 yards to the MIA 32 Notre Dame Penalty, Intentional Grounding (CJ Carr) to the MIA 32Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 21
OPP 32
0
87.2%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jaden GreathouseSimilar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 21
OPP 32
+11
89.0%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 11 yds to the MIA 21Similar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
82.4%
Noah Burnette 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5389% → 88%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
88.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
89.1%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Malachi ToneySimilar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
88.5%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Malachi ToneySimilar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
87.5%
Dylan Joyce punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:0915% → 61%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+65
85.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 65 yds to the MIA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
77.1%
CJ Carr run for 3 yds to the MIA 7Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
39.4%
CJ Carr run for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 2:1156% → 91%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
56.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
59.6%
CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the MIA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
59.5%
Notre Dame Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Christian Gray) to the ND 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
63.1%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Joshua Moore, broken up by Christian GraySimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
62.3%
CharMar Brown run for 8 yds to the ND 39Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
61.9%
CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
63.4%
CharMar Brown run for 6 yds to the ND 30Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
65.9%
CharMar Brown run for no gain to the ND 30Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+1
65.3%
CharMar Brown run for 1 yd to the ND 29Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+47
91.3%
Carter Davis 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:5413% → 11%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.6%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Eli RaridonSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
88.4%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 12 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
86.6%
CJ Carr sacked by Akheem Mesidor for a loss of 7 yards to the ND 30 Notre Dame Penalty, Intentional Grounding (CJ Carr) to the ND 30Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 17
OWN 30
-6
88.5%
CJ Carr sacked by Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the ND 24Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 23
OWN 24
-5
89.2%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ND 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:21
CJ Carr run for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
-37.7
FG · Q4 1:04
Carter Davis 47 yd FG GOOD
+29.3
TD · Q4 14:55
Jordan Faison 1 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette Kick)
-18.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com