2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadDUQ aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreDUQ score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:14 · Michael Berarducci punt for 44 yds , Desmond Reid returns for 88 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:47: Eli Holstein pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 4 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK) — PITT win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:28: Tyler Riddell pass complete to B.J. Alexander for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Marcinko PAT MISSED) — DUQ win probability +0.6 pts (now 3%) (top driver: DUQ has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:24: Juelz Goff run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Butkowski PAT BLOCKED) — PITT win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:01: Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 20 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK) — PITT win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:48: Eli Holstein pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 16 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK) — PITT win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9DUQ made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
- Q1 12:14DUQ 4th & 8 at DUQ 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q1 11:07DUQ 4th & 13 at DUQ 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 9:52PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 37, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.2%average punt
- Q1 7:37DUQ 4th & 4 at DUQ 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it2.0%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q1 3:22PITT 4th & 1 at DUQ 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.6%71% to convertField goal97.4%−0.247% to makePunt97.4%−0.2average punt
- Q1 2:47PITT 4th & 4 at DUQ 4, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.5%40% to convertField goal97.5%−<0.193% to makePunt97.0%−0.5average punt
- Q1 0:32DUQ 4th & 30 at DUQ 5, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q2 14:18PITT 4th & 3 at DUQ 19, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.8%51% to convertField goal97.8%−0.177% to makePunt97.1%−0.7average punt
- Q2 12:27DUQ 4th & 4 at DUQ 26, down 14Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 11:03PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 25, up 14Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.5%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 5:07DUQ 4th & 16 at DUQ 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.315% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q2 5:07DUQ 4th & 16 at DUQ 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.315% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q2 2:31DUQ 4th & 7 at PITT 47, down 21Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 12:31DUQ 4th & 5 at DUQ 30, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 11:13PITT 4th & 18 at PITT 12, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 6:47DUQ 4th & 25 at PITT 44, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.27% to convertField goal0.1%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 13:56DUQ 4th & 8 at PITT 17, down 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%80% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 13:34PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 29, up 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 11:06DUQ 4th & 6 at DUQ 29, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:03PITT 4th & 9 at DUQ 9, up 39Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%89% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 5:53DUQ 4th & 15 at DUQ 20, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:32PITT 4th & 9 at DUQ 9, up 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%89% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 1:50DUQ 4th & 9 at DUQ 26, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7DUQ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 2:47PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:28DUQ Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call3.7%97% to makeGo for two3.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:24PITT Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:01PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:48PITT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:14PITT Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:14PITT Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:12PITT Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDUQDrive 1PUNT RETURN TD7 plays · 19 yds · 2:411% → 1%
Q1 13:25
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+10
98.9%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Jermaine Johnson for 10 yds to the DUQ 49Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 3
OWN 49
-5
98.9%
PENALTY Dukes Delay Of Game 5 yards from Dukes49 to Dukes44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 8
OWN 44
+88
98.9%
Michael Berarducci punt for 44 yds , Desmond Reid returns for 88 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:021% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1099% → 99%
DUQDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:571% → 1%
PITTDrive 5TD12 plays · 62 yds · 4:4199% → 99%
Q1 6:44
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+18
98.6%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 18 yds to the DUQ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
98.4%
PENALTY Pitt False Start 5 yards from Dukes43 to Dukes48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
98.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 13 yds to the DUQ 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+3
98.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 3 yds to the DUQ 4Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.6%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 4 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 6PUNT6 plays · -20 yds · 2:022% → 2%
Q1 2:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-14
98.4%
Tyler Riddell sacked by Kyle Louis for a loss of 14 yards to the DUQ 13Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 22
OWN 13
-8
98.4%
Tyler Riddell sacked by Kyle Louis for a loss of 8 yards to the DUQ 5Similar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 30
OWN 5
0
98.4%
Michael Berarducci punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DUQ 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7INT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0999% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:432% → 2%
Q2 12:27
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
98.2%
Michael Berarducci punt for 42 yds , Desmond Reid returns for no gain to the PITT 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1798% → 98%
DUQDrive 10TD4 plays · 61 yds · 0:242% → 3%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+59
98.0%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Joey Isabella for 59 yds to the PITT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
97.8%
PENALTY Dukes False Start (Brandt,Tommy) 5 yards from Pitt02 to Pitt07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.1%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to B.J. Alexander for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Marcinko PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD5 plays · 18 yds · 0:4798% → 98%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
97.6%
(10:12) Shotgun Holstein,Eli pass incomplete short middle to Williams Jr.,Raphael thrown to Dukes05, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Dukes Pass Interference (Harper,Dallas) 13 yards from Dukes18 to Dukes05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 12PUNT11 plays · 8 yds · 4:082% → 2%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.0%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Joey Isabella for 4 yds to the DUQ 29Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
97.8%
PENALTY Dukes Illegal Substitution 5 yards from Dukes33 to Dukes28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
97.9%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Joey Isabella for 11 yds to the DUQ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
97.7%
(07:17) No Huddle-Shotgun Solomon, Jr.,Shawn rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Dukes44 (Brookins,Cruce) PENALTY Dukes Holding (Fallah,Michael) 10 yards from Dukes39 to Dukes29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+4
97.7%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Shawn Solomon Jr. for 4 yds to the DUQ 33Similar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 16
OWN 33
+4
97.7%
Michael Berarducci punt for 33 yds for a 1ST down , Desmond Reid returns for 4 yds to the PITT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 16
OWN 33
+4
97.7%
Michael Berarducci punt for 33 yds for a 1ST down , Desmond Reid returns for 4 yds to the DUQ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13TD3 plays · 47 yds · 0:5398% → 99%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
97.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 12 yds to the DUQ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
97.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Deuce Spann for 15 yds to the DUQ 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 20 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 28 yds · 1:271% → 1%
Q2 3:14
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+8
98.9%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Joey Isabella for 8 yds to the PITT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD7 plays · 80 yds · 1:2599% → 100%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Zion Fowler-El for 5 yds to the PITT 25Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+45
99.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 45 yds to the DUQ 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.7%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 16 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 16END OF HALF3 plays · -2 yds · 0:410% → 0%
PITTDrive 17TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:28100% → 100%
DUQDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q3 12:31
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Michael Hartshorn punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
99.8%
Eli Holstein sacked by Jack Dunkley for a loss of 6 yards to the PITT 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 21 yds · 4:190% → 0%
Q3 10:36
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+30
99.8%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Joey Isabella for 30 yds to the PITT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.8%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Joey Isabella for no gain to the PITT 29Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-10
99.8%
(09:13) Shotgun Solomon, Jr.,Shawn rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Pitt25 (Brookins,Cruce) PENALTY Dukes Holding (Fallah,Michael) 10 yards from Pitt29 to Pitt39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 20
OPP 39
+1
99.8%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Jermaine Johnson for 1 yd to the PITT 38Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 19
OPP 38
-10
99.9%
(08:05) Shotgun Riddell,Tyler pass complete short middle to Solomon, Jr.,Shawn caught at Pitt36, for 7 yards to the Pitt31 (Biles,Rasheem) PENALTY Dukes Holding (Gunn,Aaron) 10 yards from Pitt38 to Pitt48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 29
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
Tyler Riddell pass complete to Alex Gochis for 4 yds to the PITT 44Similar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 25
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Michael Hartshorn punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Bryce Yates for 9 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+34
99.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 34 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)Similar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
99.9%
PENALTY Pitt UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Thomas,Malachi) 15 yards from Pitt35 to Pitt20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 22FG12 plays · 33 yds · 4:070% → 0%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
99.9%
Logan Kushner pass complete to Joey Isabella for 6 yds to the PITT 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-5
99.9%
PENALTY Dukes False Start (Satterwhite III,Gary) 5 yards from Pitt16 to Pitt21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+9
99.9%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shadarian Harrison) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:26
3RD & 3
OPP 12
-5
99.9%
PENALTY Dukes Delay Of Game 5 yards from Pitt12 to Pitt17. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:18100% → 100%
Q4 13:34
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Caleb Junko punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Joey Isabella at the DUQ 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:210% → 0%
PITTDrive 25FG9 plays · 31 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
Q4 10:11
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+13
99.9%
Cole Gonzales pass complete to Josh Altsman for 13 yds to the DUQ 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
99.9%
Cole Gonzales pass complete to Jalynn Williams for 9 yds to the DUQ 17Similar
Q4 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.9%
Cole Gonzales pass complete to Zion Fowler-El for 2 yds to the DUQ 6Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
99.9%
Cole Gonzales pass complete to Deuce Spann for 3 yds to the DUQ 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 26PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 2:000% → 0%
PITTDrive 27FG7 plays · 12 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q4 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
100.0%
Cole Gonzales pass complete to Caleb Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the DUQ 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:350% → 0%
PITTDrive 29TD2 plays · 60 yds · 0:23100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:01
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 20 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 10:28
Tyler Riddell pass complete to B.J. Alexander for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Marcinko PAT MISSED)
-0.6
TD · Q2 9:24
Juelz Goff run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Butkowski PAT BLOCKED)
+0.6