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EKU

Eastern Kentucky 17 at Louisville 51

LOU
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadEKU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreEKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:30 · Jacob Baker punt for 35 yds , Bobby Golden returns for 7 yds to the EKU 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Pregame prior+32.7Home team on offense+30.1Score differential+24.1Blowout margin+12.3Garbage-time factor+7.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:48: Isaac Brown run for 31 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK) — LOU win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:44: Miller Moss run for 8 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK) — LOU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:05: Isaac Brown run for 68 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK) — LOU win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:26: Miller Moss pass complete to Duke Watson for 30 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK) — EKU win probability +0.7 pts (now 1%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:58: Keyjuan Brown 1 Yd Run (Nick Keller PAT failed) — LOU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2EKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 7:49EKU 4th & 15 at EKU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:12EKU 4th & 17 at EKU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:57EKU 4th & 15 at EKU 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:35EKU 4th & 7 at EKU 10, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:00EKU 4th & 5 at EKU 30, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:01EKU 4th & 5 at LOU 49, down 41
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:05EKU 4th & 6 at EKU 29, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:08LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 41, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:30EKU 4th & 6 at EKU 20, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:15EKU 4th & 6 at LOU 43, down 41
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:23LOU 4th & 2 at EKU 5, up 34
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:06EKU 4th & 3 at LOU 21, down 37
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6EKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:48LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:44LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:05LOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:26LOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:58LOU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:50EKU Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:06LOU Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:18EKU Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:5699% → 99%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
98.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 9 yds to the LOU 24Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 1
OWN 24
0
98.8%
Isaac Brown run for no gain to the LOU 24Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+3
98.7%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
98.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 7 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+6
98.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 6 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.6%
Duke Watson run for no gain to the LOU 40Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
98.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 1 yd to the LOU 41Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-10
98.5%
(11:20) Shotgun Moss,Miller pass complete deep right to Meeks,Antonio caught at EKU39, for 20 yards to the EKU39, End Of Play PENALTY LOU Holding (Moussa,Mahamane) 10 yards from LOU41 to LOU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 19
OWN 31
+21
98.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Antonio Meeks for 21 yds to the EKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
98.4%
Isaac Brown run for 17 yds to the EKU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
98.5%
Isaac Brown run for 31 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 2PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:402% → 2%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
98.4%
Brayden Latham run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 6
50
0
98.3%
Myles Burkett pass incomplete to Marcus Calwise Jr.Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 6
50
-9
98.3%
Myles Burkett sacked by Clev Lubin for a loss of 9 yards to the EKU 41Similar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 15
OWN 41
+93
98.5%
Jacob Baker punt for 52 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 93 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 2:292% → 2%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.4%
Brayden Latham run for 4 yds to the EKU 29Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
98.4%
Brayden Latham run for 2 yds to the EKU 31Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
98.4%
PENALTY EKU False Start (Hinton,Fred) 5 yards from EKU31 to EKU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-8
98.4%
Myles Burkett sacked by AJ Green for a loss of 8 yards to the EKU 18Similar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+1
98.3%
Jacob Baker punt for 52 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 1 yd to the LOU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:2498% → 99%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
98.4%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+32
98.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 32 yds to the EKU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
98.4%
Duke Watson run for 2 yds to the EKU 45Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+12
98.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 12 yds to the EKU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
98.3%
Keyjuan Brown run for 9 yds to the EKU 24Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
98.3%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+12
98.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 12 yds to the EKU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
98.2%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris Bell for a 1ST down Eastern Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Vito Tisdale) to the EKU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-6
98.2%
Caullin Lacy run for a loss of 6 yards to the EKU 8Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.7%
Miller Moss run for 8 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:031% → 1%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.7%
Myles Burkett run for 4 yds to the EKU 29Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
98.7%
Myles Burkett run for a loss of 2 yards to the EKU 27 Myles Burkett fumbled, recovered by EKU Myles BurkettSimilar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
98.7%
Myles Burkett run for 12 yds to the EKU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.6%
Myles Burkett pass incomplete to Jalen MontgomerySimilar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
98.6%
Jalen Montgomery run for 2 yds to the EKU 41Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-7
98.7%
Myles Burkett sacked by Clev Lubin for a loss of 7 yards to the EKU 34Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 15
OWN 34
0
98.7%
Jacob Baker punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the LOU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4299% → 99%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.7%
Isaac Brown run for 7 yds to the LOU 32Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
98.7%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Antonio MeeksSimilar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+68
99.3%
Isaac Brown run for 68 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:221% → 1%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
99.3%
PENALTY EKU Delay Of Game (Burkett,Myles) 3 yards from EKU07 to EKU04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+4
99.4%
Brayden Latham run for 4 yds to the EKU 8Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+3
99.3%
Brayden Latham run for 3 yds to the EKU 11Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 6
OWN 11
-1
99.3%
Myles Burkett run for a loss of 1 yard to the EKU 10Similar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 7
OWN 10
+31
99.4%
Jacob Baker punt for 41 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 31 yds to the EKU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
98.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duke Watson for 30 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:161% → 0%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Jalen Montgomery run for 2 yds to the EKU 27Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.5%
Jalen Montgomery run for 3 yds to the EKU 30Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Myles Burkett pass incomplete to Caeleb SchlachterSimilar
Q2 7:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Jacob Baker punt for 37 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for no gain to the LOU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
99.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 18 yds to the EKU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
99.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Keyjuan Brown for 9 yds to the EKU 40Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+4
99.5%
Keyjuan Brown run for 4 yds to the EKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.6%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-2
99.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 13 yds to the EKU 23 for a 1ST down Louisville Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chris Bell) to the EKU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.6%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
99.6%
(05:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Moss,Miller pass complete short left to Brown,Keyjuan caught at EKU38, for 38 yards to the EKU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 04:59 PENALTY EKU Holding offsetting LOU Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+16
99.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 16 yds to the EKU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
99.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 15 yds to the EKU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
99.6%
Keyjuan Brown run for 6 yds to the EKU 1Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Keyjuan Brown 1 Yd Run (Nick Keller PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
99.7%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Jayden West for 21 yds to the EKU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.7%
Brayden Latham run for 1 yd to the EKU 47Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+4
99.7%
Brayden Latham run for 4 yds to the LOU 49Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Brayden Latham run for no gain to the LOU 49Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Jacob Baker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the LOU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12INT TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:07100% → 100%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
99.7%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Moss,Miller pass incomplete short right to Brown,Keyjuan thrown to LOU20, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY EKU Pass Interference (Hence,Rishad) 11 yard from LOU10 to LOU21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-29
99.6%
Miller Moss pass intercepted Vito Tisdale return for 29 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 6 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
99.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Antonio Meeks for 13 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Keyjuan Brown for 3 yds to the LOU 47Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-43
99.6%
Miller Moss pass intercepted Vito Tisdale return for 43 yds to the LOU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:060% → 0%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
99.6%
PENALTY EKU False Start (Coppinger,Liam) 5 yards from LOU46 to EKU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 49
-1
99.7%
Brayden Latham run for a loss of 1 yard to the EKU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:460% → 0%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Brayden Latham run for 4 yds to the EKU 29Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Myles Burkett pass incomplete to Jakobie HughesSimilar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.7%
(14:18) PENALTY EKU False Start (Gaines,Antonio) 5 yards from EKU29 to EKU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
99.7%
PENALTY LOU Offside (Quinn,T.J.) 5 yards from EKU24 to EKU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Myles Burkett pass incomplete to Ron Vann Jr.Similar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+2
99.7%
Jacob Baker punt for 49 yds , Bobby Golden returns for 2 yds to the LOU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.7%
Braxton Jennings run for 6 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+10
99.7%
Braxton Jennings run for 10 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Brady Allen pass incomplete to Kris HughesSimilar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.7%
Braxton Jennings run for 1 yd to the LOU 41Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Brady Allen pass incomplete to Kris HughesSimilar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Carter Schwartz punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EKU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Brady Hensley run for no gain to the EKU 16Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
99.8%
Brady Hensley run for 4 yds to the EKU 20Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Myles Burkett pass incomplete to Brady HensleySimilar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 6
OWN 20
+7
99.8%
Jacob Baker punt for 35 yds , Bobby Golden returns for 7 yds to the EKU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.8%
Keyjuan Brown run for 3 yds to the EKU 45Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
99.8%
Keyjuan Brown run for 2 yds to the EKU 43Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+12
99.8%
Brady Allen pass complete to Kris Hughes for 12 yds to the EKU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.8%
Brady Allen pass complete to Kris Hughes for 31 yds for a TD (Nick Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 3:510% → 0%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.8%
PENALTY EKU False Start (Riffe,Brody) 5 yards from EKU25 to EKU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Brady Hensley run for 4 yds to the EKU 24Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
99.9%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Dequan Stanley for 7 yds to the EKU 31Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
(07:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Burkett,Myles pass incomplete short left to Vaka,Kyle thrown to EKU37, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LOU Pass Interference (Gordon,Corey) 4 yards from EKU31 to EKU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Myles Burkett run for 2 yds to the EKU 37Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Myles Burkett pass incomplete to Kyle VakaSimilar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+16
99.9%
Myles Burkett run for 6 yds to the LOU 43 for a 1ST down Louisville Penalty, Defensive Holding (Rae'mon Mosby) to the LOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
99.9%
Brady Hensley run for 3 yds to the LOU 44Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+1
99.9%
Brady Hensley run for 1 yd to the LOU 43Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Myles Burkett pass incomplete to Kyle VakaSimilar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Jacob Baker punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 4:07100% → 100%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
99.9%
Brady Allen pass complete to Davon Mitchell for 8 yds to the LOU 11Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+8
99.9%
Shaun Boykins Jr. run for 8 yds to the LOU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
99.9%
Brady Allen pass complete to Kris Hughes for 7 yds to the LOU 26Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Shaun Boykins Jr. run for 3 yds to the LOU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
99.9%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun Boykins Jr.,Shaun rush left for 0 yards to the LOU29 (McGowan,Jacquez; Ingram V,Charles) PENALTY LOU Holding (Secrest,Sam) 10 yards from LOU29 to LOU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+6
99.9%
Brady Allen pass complete to Braxton Jennings for 6 yds to the LOU 25Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Brady Allen pass complete to Dacari Collins for 5 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-20
99.9%
Brady Allen pass intercepted Brody Wells return for 20 yds to the LOU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.9%
Brady Hensley run for 5 yds to the LOU 11Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+5
99.9%
Brady Hensley run for 5 yds to the LOU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.9%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Burkett,Myles pass incomplete short left to West,Jayden thrown to LOU02 PENALTY LOU Pass Interference (Agu,Justin) 4 yards from LOU06 to LOU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
Brady Hensley run for no gain to the LOU 2Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Brady Hensley run for 2 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:47100% → 100%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Braxton Jennings run for 2 yds to the LOU 27Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
99.9%
Deuce Adams run for 10 yds to the LOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
99.9%
Deuce Adams pass complete to Dacari Collins for 16 yds to the EKU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
99.9%
Braxton Jennings run for 3 yds to the EKU 44Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
Deuce Adams pass complete to Shaun Boykins Jr. for 5 yds to the EKU 39Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+10
99.9%
Shaun Boykins Jr. run for 10 yds to the EKU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
99.9%
Shaun Boykins Jr. run for 16 yds to the EKU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
99.9%
Shaun Boykins Jr. run for 3 yds to the EKU 10Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
Braxton Jennings run for 5 yds to the EKU 5Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Louisville Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+23
99.9%
Cooper Ranvier 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 23FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 7:010% → 0%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
99.9%
Telly McCallister run for 5 yds to the EKU 15Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+1
100.0%
Telly McCallister run for 1 yd to the EKU 16Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+5
100.0%
Myles Burkett run for 5 yds to the EKU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
100.0%
Myles Burkett sacked by Trent Carter for a loss of 5 yards to the EKU 16Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+2
100.0%
Telly McCallister run for 2 yds to the EKU 18Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 13
OWN 18
+29
100.0%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Marcus Calwise Jr. for 29 yds to the EKU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
100.0%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Dequan Stanley for 14 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
100.0%
Telly McCallister run for 3 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+8
100.0%
Myles Burkett run for 8 yds to the LOU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
99.9%
Telly McCallister run for 2 yds to the LOU 26Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
100.0%
Myles Burkett pass incomplete to T.J. MitchellSimilar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+5
100.0%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Jakobie Hughes for 5 yds to the LOU 21Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
99.9%
Buzz Flabiano 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
100.0%
(00:49) Kneel down by Louisville at EKU37 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 37
-1
99.9%
(00:17) Kneel down by Louisville at EKU38 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:26
Miller Moss pass complete to Duke Watson for 30 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
-0.7
TD · Q2 11:05
Isaac Brown run for 68 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q1 0:44
Miller Moss run for 8 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
+0.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com