2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadFOR aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreFOR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:04 · Bennett Henderson 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginOffense timeoutsDefense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:19: Jaedn Skeete 11 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick) — BC win probability +0.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 0:26: Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 13 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK) (Luca Lombardo KICK) — BC win probability +5.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:47: Daveon Crouch 28 Yd Interception Return (Luca Lombardo Kick) — BC win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FOR has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:59: Luca Lombardo 48 Yd Field Goal — BC win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:00: Gunnar Smith 1 Yd Run (Bennett Henderson Kick) — FOR win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: FOR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 6FOR made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 6:04FOR 4th & 5 at BC 29, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.2%41% to convertField goalTheir call3.2%−<0.158% to makePunt2.9%−0.3average punt
- Q1 2:38FOR 4th & 7 at FOR 18, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.3%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q1 1:08BC 4th & 3 at BC 30, up 11Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snapGo for it96.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:11FOR 4th & 9 at FOR 28, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q2 13:47BC 4th & 10 at BC 37, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.9%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.0%average punt
- Q2 12:02FOR 4th & 2 at FOR 28, down 11Close callPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it4.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:27BC 4th & 1 at BC 34, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt95.7%−0.2average punt
- Q2 8:40BC 4th & 4 at BC 45, up 11Close callPunted · 95.6% before the snapGo for it95.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 5:31FOR 4th & 21 at FOR 31, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q2 3:27BC 4th & 9 at BC 28, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.6%−0.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.9%average punt
- Q2 1:53FOR 4th & 11 at FOR 39, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q3 13:27FOR 4th & 15 at FOR 13, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q3 10:59BC 4th & 5 at FOR 30, up 25Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%41% to convertField goalTheir call99.1%−<0.156% to makePunt98.9%−0.2average punt
- Q3 9:38FOR 4th & 12 at FOR 17, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 3:09FOR 4th & 7 at FOR 39, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:30FOR 4th & 4 at FOR 42, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:54FOR 4th & 13 at FOR 42, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:37FOR 4th & 18 at FOR 17, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.112% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8FOR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 8:31BC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:19BC Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:26BC Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:47BC Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:30BC Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:56BC Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:11BC Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:00FOR Touchdown, down 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:55BC Touchdown, up 55 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBCDrive 1TD14 plays · 71 yds · 6:2498% → 97%
Q1 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
98.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 6 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
98.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 2
50
+9
97.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 9 yds to the FOR 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+17
97.7%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 17 yds to the FOR 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
97.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 6 yds to the FOR 18Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
97.1%
Jordan McDonald 11 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 2FG9 plays · 35 yds · 2:173% → 4%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
97.1%
Gunnar Smith pass complete to Ricky Gonzalez II for 18 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
96.7%
Gunnar Smith pass incomplete to Ricky Gonzalez II, broken up by Syair TorrenceSimilar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
96.5%
Gunnar Smith pass incomplete to Ricky Gonzalez II, broken up by Syair TorrenceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD7 plays · 84 yds · 2:3996% → 96%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+27
96.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 27 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+10
95.7%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 10 yds to the FOR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+32
95.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 32 yds to the FOR 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:324% → 4%
BCDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1896% → 95%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
95.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Luke McLaughlin for 2 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
94.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Luke McLaughlin, broken up by Andrew OsmunSimilar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+1
94.7%
Shamus Florio punt for 44 yds , Alex Kemper returns for 1 yd to the FOR 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:485% → 6%
BCDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1495% → 94%
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
94.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jeremiah Franklin, broken up by Sam BuerkleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:356% → 6%
BCDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 3:1294% → 92%
Q2 11:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
93.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jordan McDonald for 2 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
93.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 5 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
92.7%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis Bond, broken up by John Scott IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 3:028% → 8%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
92.0%
Gunnar Smith pass complete to KJ Reed for 13 yds to the FOR 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-12
91.5%
Gunnar Smith sacked by Carter Davis for a loss of 12 yards to the FOR 31Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 21
OWN 31
0
91.6%
Will Haslett punt for 42 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for no gain to the BC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11Uncategorized4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1890% → 88%
Q2 4:45
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-5
89.9%
Dylan Lonergan sacked by Sam Buerkle for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 1:2510% → 15%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
90.3%
Gunnar Smith pass complete to Jabril Carter for 5 yds to the FOR 32Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+8
90.0%
Gunnar Smith pass complete to Jabril Carter for 8 yds to the FOR 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
90.6%
Gunnar Smith sacked by Daveon Crouch for a loss of 5 yards to the FOR 35Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 17
OWN 33
+6
85.6%
Gunnar Smith pass complete to Jamell James for 6 yds to the FOR 39Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+5
85.5%
Will Haslett punt for 48 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for 5 yds to the BC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13TD10 plays · 82 yds · 1:1883% → 89%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
83.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 10 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
83.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Luke McLaughlin for 8 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+6
82.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 6 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
83.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 2
50
0
83.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Turbo Richard, broken up by Alex KemperSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 2
50
+5
82.7%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Kaelan Chudzinski for 5 yds to the FOR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
83.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 11 yds to the FOR 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
83.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 21 yds to the FOR 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
89.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 13 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK) (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 14FUMBLE2 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
93.1%
Jacob Rodriguez run for a loss of 11 yards to the BC 35 Jacob Rodriguez fumbled, recovered by FOR Gunnar Smith Rodriguez,Jacob rush middle for loss of 11 yards to the FOR14, fumble by Rodriguez,Jacob recovered by FOR Smith,Gunnar, Smith,Gunnar rush , FOR wins the toss and chooses receive.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 15TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:134% → 1%
FORDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:141% → 1%
Q3 14:09
2ND & 13
OWN 15
-2
98.9%
Gunnar Smith pass complete to KJ Reed for a loss of 2 yards to the FOR 13Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 15
OWN 13
0
98.8%
Gunnar Smith pass incomplete to Nodin Tracy, broken up by Amari JacksonSimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 15
OWN 13
+20
98.8%
Will Haslett punt for 42 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for 20 yds to the FOR 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17FG4 plays · 5 yds · 2:1599% → 100%
FORDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:150% → 0%
BCDrive 19TD9 plays · 51 yds · 4:07100% → 100%
FORDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 2:120% → 0%
Q3 4:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.9%
Gunnar Smith pass complete to Matt Buron for 4 yds to the FOR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Gunnar Smith pass complete to Nodin Tracy for 3 yds to the FOR 39Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Gunnar Smith pass incomplete to Nodin Tracy Fordham Penalty, Offensive holding (Dylan Haines) to the FOR 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21TD5 plays · 19 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q3 1:52
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+5
99.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Brady Clough for 5 yds to the FOR 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:000% → 0%
BCDrive 23TD7 plays · 84 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q4 13:04
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+52
99.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Dawson Pough for 52 yds to the FOR 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+22
99.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Dawson Pough for 22 yds to the FOR 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Alex Broome run for 1 yd for a TD Fordham Penalty, substitution infraction (Krystian Pothel) to the FOR 0 (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
100.0%
Gunnar Smith pass complete to Nodin Tracy for 20 yds to the FOR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.9%
Gunnar Smith pass complete to Jack Freeburg for 7 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 3
OPP 48
-10
99.9%
Gunnar Smith pass incomplete to Ricky Parks, broken up by Mike Bumpus Fordham Penalty, Offensive holding (Cooper LaFond) to the FOR 42Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Gunnar Smith pass incomplete to Nodin Tracy, broken up by Max TuckerSimilar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 13
OWN 42
+24
100.0%
Dominic Sansone punt for 39 yds , Michael Landolfi returns for 24 yds to the BC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25TD2 plays · 57 yds · 0:28100% → 100%
FORDrive 26TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:090% → 0%
Q4 7:19
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+13
100.0%
Gunnar Smith pass complete to Matt Buron for 13 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
100.0%
Gunnar Smith pass complete to Jack Betten for 15 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+17
100.0%
Gunnar Smith pass complete to Troy Worrell for 2 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, roughing passer (Jayden Fry) to the BC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+16
100.0%
Gunnar Smith pass complete to Jamell James for 16 yds to the BC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:05100% → 100%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+39
100.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Luke McLaughlin for 39 yds to the FOR 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 28PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
100.0%
Gunnar Smith sacked by Micah Amedee for a loss of 12 yards to the FOR 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 29Uncategorized1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:26
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 13 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK) (Luca Lombardo KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q3 14:47
Daveon Crouch 28 Yd Interception Return (Luca Lombardo Kick)
+2.7
TD · Q1 3:19
Jaedn Skeete 11 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)
+0.8