2025 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2025 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:01 · Damon Greaves punt for 53 yds , Eric Rivers returns for no gain to the GT 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:33: Haynes King run for 4 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +7.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:00: Alejandro Mata 29 yd FG GOOD — COLO win probability +6.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:14: Haynes King run for 17 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +18.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:25: Kaidon Salter run for 7 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +28.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:07: Haynes King run for 45 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +38.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 9:55COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snapGo for it45.1%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.3%average punt
- Q1 5:01COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 43, up 7Close callPunted · 48.8% before the snapGo for it49.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.5%−0.6average punt
- Q2 13:31GT 4th & 14 at COLO 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snapGo for it45.7%−1.316% to convertField goalTheir call47.0%84% to makePunt42.9%−4.0average punt
- Q2 10:30COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 48, up 4Close callPunted · 49.6% before the snapGo for it49.4%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:39COLO 4th & 9 at GT 24, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snapGo for it43.5%−1.031% to convertField goalTheir call44.5%68% to makePunt38.7%−5.8average punt
- Q2 0:00GT 4th & 2 at COLO 26, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snapGo for it56.1%57% to convertField goalTheir call54.8%−1.364% to makePunt48.6%−7.5average punt
- Q3 12:54COLO 4th & 7 at midfield, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snapGo for it43.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.1%average punt
- Q3 10:15GT 4th & 9 at GT 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snapGo for it54.3%−1.830% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.1%average punt
- Q3 6:00COLO 4th & 11 at GT 11, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snapGo for it42.0%−2.422% to convertField goalTheir call44.3%87% to makePunt32.4%−12.0average punt
- Q3 3:41GT 4th & 1 at GT 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt49.3%−4.0average punt
- Q4 10:38COLO 4th & 1 at GT 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.8%71% to convertField goal26.0%−4.770% to makePunt13.7%−17.1average punt
- Q4 5:19GT 4th & 18 at GT 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snapGo for it38.5%−9.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.9%average punt
- Q4 2:51COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snapGo for it51.5%−2.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 12:08COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.7%97% to makeGo for two43.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:33GT Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.7%97% to makeGo for two55.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:14GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.3%97% to makeGo for two67.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:25COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.8%97% to makeGo for two48.0%−0.845% to convert
- Q4 1:07GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call85.1%−0.997% to makeGo for two86.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1FUMBLE5 plays · 11 yds · 0:1669% → 69%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
31.5%
Haynes King run for a loss of 2 yards to the GT 36 Haynes King fumbled, recovered by GT Martavius FrenchSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
31.5%
Haynes King run for a loss of 2 yards to the GT 36 Haynes King fumbled, recovered by GT Martavius FrenchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2TD5 plays · 36 yds · 2:1232% → 34%
GTDrive 3FUMBLE5 plays · 27 yds · 1:2666% → 66%
COLODrive 4PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2336% → 35%
Q1 9:55
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
35.3%
Damon Greaves punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Eric Rivers at the GT 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5INT6 plays · 38 yds · 2:4465% → 63%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
36.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 10 yds to the GT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5038% → 40%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
38.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 3 yds to the COLO 31Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+3
39.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Micah Welch for 3 yds to the COLO 43Similar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
39.5%
Damon Greaves punt for 53 yds , Eric Rivers returns for no gain to the GT 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7FG15 plays · 84 yds · 6:2461% → 59%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
39.5%
(05:01) Shotgun King,Haynes pass incomplete deep left to Canion,Isiah thrown to GTU35 PENALTY COLO Pass Interference (Parks,Teon) 15 yards from GTU02 to GTU17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+10
40.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 10 yds to the GT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+5
39.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 5 yds to the COLO 31Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
40.9%
(14:27) Shotgun King,Haynes pass incomplete short right thrown to COLO02 QB hurried by French,Martavius PENALTY GTU Holding (Carney,Malachi) 10 yards from COLO08 to COLO18. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 2:5441% → 42%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
40.7%
(13:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Taylor,DeKalon rush right for 0 yards to the COLO25 (Stone,Akelo) PENALTY COLO Holding (Atkins,Zach) 10 yards from COLO25 to COLO15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+15
41.0%
Georgia Tech Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Omar Daniels) to the COLO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9TD12 plays · 80 yds · 5:5257% → 65%
Q2 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
42.9%
Haynes King sacked by Quency Wiggins for a loss of 2 yards to the GT 18Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+10
43.9%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun King,Haynes sacked for loss of 4 yards to the GTU14 (Okunlola,Samuel) PENALTY COLO Holding (Davis,Tyrecus) 10 yards from GTU18 to GTU28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+23
42.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 23 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
41.7%
(08:14) PENALTY GTU False Start (Mackenny,Ethan) 5 yards from COLO42 to COLO47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+24
42.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Malachi Hosley for 24 yds to the COLO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+10
41.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Rivers for 10 yds to the COLO 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10FG13 plays · 51 yds · 2:4538% → 46%
Q2 3:14
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
40.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Simeon Price for 3 yds to the COLO 36Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+39
37.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 39 yds to the GT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
42.3%
PENALTY COLO False Start (Harden,Kareem) 5 yards from GTU25 to GTU30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11FG11 plays · 49 yds · 1:3258% → 65%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 1:5939% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 14 yds · 2:3962% → 60%
COLODrive 14FG8 plays · 39 yds · 4:0242% → 49%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
50
+21
41.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dekalon Taylor for 21 yds to the GT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
43.8%
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the GT 10 for a 1ST down Georgia Tech Penalty, Personal Foul (Ahmari Harvey) to the GT 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-6
42.5%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Jordan van den Berg for a loss of 6 yards to the GT 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2955% → 80%
COLODrive 16TD16 plays · 75 yds · 6:3526% → 59%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
26.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 16 yds to the COLO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+9
28.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 9 yds to the GT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+9
29.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dekalon Taylor for 9 yds to the GT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
32.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Zach Atkins for 8 yds to the GT 24Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+10
30.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Zach Atkins for 10 yds to the GT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 2:3751% → 49%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
48.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 27 yds to the COLO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-5
43.9%
(06:09) PENALTY GTU Illegal Snap (Alo-Tupuola,Tana) 5 yards from COLO46 to GTU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 13
OWN 49
-5
47.6%
PENALTY GTU False Start (Beetham,Josh) 5 yards from GTU49 to GTU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 18
OWN 44
0
51.4%
Marshall Nichols punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dekalon Taylor at the COLO 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 2:1355% → 53%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
54.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Micah Welch for 8 yds to the COLO 19Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+10
56.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 10 yds to the COLO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+21
52.8%
Damon Greaves punt for 49 yds , Eric Rivers returns for 21 yds to the GT 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19TD7 plays · 61 yds · 1:3655% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20END OF GAME7 plays · 25 yds · 0:5112% → 14%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Micah Welch for 2 yds to the COLO 23Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
10.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 11 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
11.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Isaiah Hardge for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:07
Haynes King run for 45 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
-38.5
TD · Q4 8:25
Kaidon Salter run for 7 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
+28.5
TD · Q3 0:14
Haynes King run for 17 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
-18.2