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UNC

North Carolina 18 at California 21

CAL
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 17, 2025 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:46 · Michael Kern punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Pregame prior+10.0Home team on offense+3.1Garbage-time factor+0.7Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:42: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK) — CAL win probability +3.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:22: Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK) — CAL win probability +9.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:14: Davion Gause run for 4 yds for a TD (Gio Lopez pass to Benjamin Hall for Two-Point Conversion) — UNC win probability +18.9 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:43: Davion Gause run for 5 yds to the CAL 32 — UNC win probability +6.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:48: Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 22 — CAL win probability +20.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 9 of 10UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:43UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:51CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:21UNC 4th & 10 at CAL 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    27.8%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:03CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:47CAL 4th & 1 at UNC 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.8%−0.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:35UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:51CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:23UNC 4th & 2 at CAL 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.7%−1.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:14UNC 4th & 3 at CAL 23, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.2%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:15CAL 4th & 11 at UNC 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:23UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:46CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:24UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:07CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.7%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:56UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:59CAL 4th & 12 at CAL 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:29CAL 4th & 14 at CAL 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−7.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:25UNC 4th & 1 at CAL 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    26.1%−7.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−6.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:06CAL 4th & 3 at UNC 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 12:48CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:48UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:42CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:22CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:14UNC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    26.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
69.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shanard Clower for 7 yds Shanard Clower fumbled, forced by Cam Sidney, recovered by CAL Cam SidneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:5069% → 70%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
69.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for 11 yds to the UNC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
69.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for 8 yds to the UNC 6Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+3
69.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the UNC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5830% → 30%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
69.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Connor Cox for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 33Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+5
69.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 5 yds to the UNC 38Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+5
69.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Nathan Leacock for 5 yds to the UNC 43Similar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+1
70.0%
Tom Maginness punt for 48 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 1 yd to the CAL 10 Jacob De Jesus fumbled, recovered by CAL Kyion GrayesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5270% → 70%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
70.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 12Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
70.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Kendrick RaphaelSimilar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 8
OWN 12
0
70.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 8
OWN 12
+13
70.1%
Michael Kern punt for 43 yds , Will Hardy returns for 13 yds to the CAL 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3030% → 29%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
69.8%
North Carolina Penalty, False Start (Austin Blaske) to the CAL 47Similar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+1
69.9%
Demon June run for 1 yd to the CAL 46Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+4
70.2%
Demon June run for 4 yds to the CAL 42Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
70.2%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Nathan LeacockSimilar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
70.6%
Tom Maginness punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the CAL 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:1871% → 71%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
70.6%
Jacob De Jesus run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 10Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 13
OWN 10
0
70.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jordan KingSimilar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 13
OWN 10
-5
70.4%
California Penalty, False Start (Frederick Williams III) to the CAL 5Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 18
OWN 5
+23
70.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 23 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
70.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 2 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
71.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
71.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
70.8%
Michael Kern punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:1529% → 34%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
70.8%
Benjamin Hall run for 5 yds to the UNC 35Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+37
70.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 37 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
69.7%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Benjamin HallSimilar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
69.8%
Lopez, Gio pass incomplete to Leacock, Nathan, PENALTY CAL holding (Masses, Hezekiah) 10 yards to the CAL18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
66.3%
Benjamin Hall run for 18 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0668% → 74%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
67.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mark Hamper for 12 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
68.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the CAL 42Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
67.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+23
67.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 23 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
69.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 9 yds to the UNC 26Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 1
OPP 26
0
69.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
69.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason MiniSimilar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+14
68.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the UNC 24 for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (D'Antre Robinson) to the UNC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
69.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the UNC 7Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
73.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:0028% → 27%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
72.0%
California Penalty, Delay of Game (Tyson Ford) to the UNC 26Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 5
OWN 26
+12
71.6%
Benjamin Hall run for 12 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
71.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Benjamin Hall for a loss of 5 yards to the UNC 33Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+3
72.3%
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the UNC 36Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
72.6%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Nathan Leacock North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (Will O'Steen) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
72.9%
Tom Maginness punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the CAL 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:4473% → 72%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
72.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for 11 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
72.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
72.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 33Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+3
72.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 3 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
72.2%
Michael Kern punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 5:3728% → 31%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
72.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 10 yds to the UNC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
71.9%
Benjamin Hall run for 1 yd to the UNC 43Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+10
72.0%
Benjamin Hall run for 10 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
71.4%
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
71.5%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Chris CulliverSimilar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+5
71.8%
Gio Lopez run for 5 yds to the CAL 39Similar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+9
72.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Connor Cox for 9 yds to the CAL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
71.2%
Davion Gause run for 2 yds to the CAL 28Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+5
71.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Benjamin Hall for 5 yds to the CAL 23Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
72.2%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Jordan ShippSimilar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
69.2%
Rece Verhoff 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 2:5970% → 70%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason MiniSimilar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
69.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 19 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
71.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 4 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+9
71.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 9 yds to the UNC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
72.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the UNC 43Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-5
71.9%
California Penalty, False Start (Frederick Williams III) to the UNC 48Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+4
71.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
70.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason MiniSimilar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
69.8%
Michael Kern punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:5230% → 29%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
70.2%
Demon June run for 2 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+3
70.1%
Demon June run for 3 yds to the UNC 23Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+5
71.0%
Gio Lopez run for 5 yds to the UNC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
70.2%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Jake JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
70.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 6 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
70.0%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Shanard ClowerSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+1
71.0%
Tom Maginness punt for 48 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 1 yd to the CAL 35 California Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ja'ir Smith) to the CAL 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3770% → 68%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
69.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the CAL 10Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
69.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
68.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason MiniSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
67.6%
Michael Kern punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2232% → 29%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
68.4%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Jordan ShippSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
68.9%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Chris CulliverSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
69.8%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Chris CulliverSimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
71.1%
Tom Maginness punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the CAL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:2470% → 70%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
69.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 6 yds to the CAL 21Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 21
-10
69.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Tyler Thompson for a loss of 10 yards to the CAL 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 5:3269% → 83%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
69.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 23Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+9
69.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 9 yds to the CAL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
69.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 31Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+8
69.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 8 yds to the CAL 39Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+2
69.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 2 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+15
68.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 15 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
71.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 9 yds to the UNC 35Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+18
74.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to QuaRon Adams for 18 yds to the UNC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
74.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the UNC 16Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
74.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Kendrick RaphaelSimilar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+14
73.8%
Sagapolutele, Jaron-Keawe pass incomplete to Grizzell, Trond, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Allen, Marcus) 14 yards to the UNC2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CAL.Similar
Q3 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:2019% → 17%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
81.2%
Benjamin Hall run for 7 yds to the UNC 26Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 3
OWN 26
-2
80.6%
Benjamin Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 24Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+6
82.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 6 yds to the UNC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
81.2%
Benjamin Hall run for 11 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
80.6%
Benjamin Hall run for 2 yds to the UNC 43Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+1
80.9%
Gio Lopez run for 1 yd to the UNC 44Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
81.3%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Benjamin HallSimilar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
83.3%
Tom Maginness punt for 45 yds , Kyion Grayes returns for no gain to the CAL 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:5783% → 85%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
83.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 2 yds to the CAL 13Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
83.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason MiniSimilar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+12
82.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 12 yds to the CAL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
83.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 16 yds to the CAL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
85.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
86.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-6
85.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Tyler Thompson for a loss of 6 yards to the CAL 39Similar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
84.6%
Michael Kern punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 4:4515% → 37%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
85.3%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Chris CulliverSimilar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
85.8%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Jordan ShippSimilar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+20
86.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 20 yds to the UNC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
84.0%
Lopez, Gio pass incomplete to Culliver, Chris, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Culliver, Chris) 15 yards to the UNC21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 25
OWN 21
+31
85.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shanard Clower for 31 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
82.3%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Jordan ShippSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+14
82.8%
Gio Lopez sacked by Chris Victor for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 49 for a 1ST down California Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chris Victor) to the CAL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
81.4%
Benjamin Hall run for no gain to the CAL 34Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
81.6%
Lopez, Gio pass incomplete to Hall, Benjamin, PENALTY CAL holding (Masses, Hezekiah) 10 yards to the CAL24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
81.1%
Davion Gause run for 17 yds to the CAL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
81.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 3 yds to the CAL 4Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
81.6%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
62.6%
Davion Gause run for 4 yds for a TD (Gio Lopez pass to Benjamin Hall for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:4572% → 69%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the CAL 26Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
71.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-10
69.5%
Sagapolutele, Jaron-Keawe rush for 8 yards to the CAL34, PENALTY CAL holding (Vatikani, Sioape) 10 yards to the CAL16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+5
69.1%
Devin Brown pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the CAL 21Similar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
69.1%
Michael Kern punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22FUMBLE
12 plays · 52 yds · 6:4136% → 42%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
63.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shanard Clower for a loss of 5 yards to the UNC 42Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+13
67.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 13 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
62.6%
Davion Gause run for 1 yd to the CAL 44Similar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+1
64.5%
Gio Lopez run for 1 yd to the CAL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
61.8%
Benjamin Hall run for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 47Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 14
OPP 47
0
65.3%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+10
67.4%
Lopez, Gio pass incomplete to Paysour, Kobe, PENALTY CAL holding (Sidney, Cam) 10 yards to the CAL37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
61.4%
Davion Gause run for 5 yds to the CAL 32Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+2
58.7%
Davion Gause run for 2 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+15
60.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 15 yds to the CAL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
58.3%
Benjamin Hall run for 2 yds to the CAL 13Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+12
58.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Nathan Leacock for 12 yds Nathan Leacock fumbled, forced by Brent Austin, recovered by CAL Brent AustinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23PUNT
14 plays · 32 yds · 3:4279% → 95%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
78.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 22Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+11
80.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 11 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
85.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 31Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+11
86.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 11 yds to the CAL 42Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
87.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the CAL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
89.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the CAL 49Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
90.0%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 5
50
+2
93.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the UNC 48Similar
Q4 0:06
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+6
94.7%
Brook Honore Jr. punt for 35 yds , Will Hardy returns for 6 yds to the UNC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24FUMBLE
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
89.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 4 yds to the UNC 12 lat. to Chris Culliver for a loss of 4 yards to the UNC 12 lat. to Gio Lopez for a loss of 6 yards to the UNC 12 lat. to Jordan Shipp for 1 yd to the UNC 12 lat. to Davion Gause for a loss of 2 yards Davion Gause fumbled, recovered by CAL Dru Polidore Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:48
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 22
+20.7
TD · Q4 12:14
Davion Gause run for 4 yds for a TD (Gio Lopez pass to Benjamin Hall for Two-Point Conversion)
-18.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com