UNC
North Carolina 18 at California 21
CAL2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · California Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey play
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UNC · Drive 1FUMBLE · 2 plays · 7 yds
Q1 15:00
Michael Luckhurst kickoff for 62 yds , Jaylen McGill return for 15 yds to the UNC 18
71.0%
0.0
Q1 14:38
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shanard Clower for 7 yds Shanard Clower fumbled, forced by Cam Sidney, recovered by CAL Cam Sidney
68.3%
-2.7
CAL · Drive 2TD · 4 plays · 25 yds
Q1 14:38
Kendrick Raphael run for 11 yds to the UNC 14 for a 1ST down
72.8%
+4.6
Q1 14:08
Kendrick Raphael run for 8 yds to the UNC 6
72.8%
0.0
Q1 13:22
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the UNC 3 for a 1ST down
72.8%
0.0
Q1 12:48
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
82.0%
+9.1
UNC · Drive 3PUNT · 5 plays · 9 yds
Q1 12:48
Michael Luckhurst kickoff for 63 yds , Jaylen McGill return for 32 yds to the UNC 34
81.3%
-0.7
Q1 12:41
Gio Lopez pass complete to Connor Cox for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 33
77.9%
-3.3
Q1 11:59
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 5 yds to the UNC 38
77.9%
0.0
Q1 11:28
Gio Lopez pass complete to Nathan Leacock for 5 yds to the UNC 43
79.0%
+1.1
Q1 10:43
Tom Maginness punt for 48 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 1 yd to the CAL 10 Jacob De Jesus fumbled, recovered by CAL Kyion Grayes
79.0%
0.0
CAL · Drive 4PUNT · 4 plays · 2 yds
Q1 10:43
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 12
82.1%
+3.0
Q1 10:10
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Kendrick Raphael
82.1%
0.0
Q1 10:07
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De Jesus
82.1%
0.0
Q1 9:51
Michael Kern punt for 43 yds , Will Hardy returns for 13 yds to the CAL 42
81.7%
-0.4
UNC · Drive 5PUNT · 5 plays · 0 yds
Q1 9:51
North Carolina Penalty, False Start (Austin Blaske) to the CAL 47
77.8%
-3.9
Q1 9:50
Demon June run for 1 yd to the CAL 46
78.1%
+0.3
Q1 9:18
Demon June run for 4 yds to the CAL 42
78.1%
+0.1
Q1 8:32
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Nathan Leacock
77.6%
-0.6
Q1 8:21
Tom Maginness punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the CAL 13
78.2%
+0.6
CAL · Drive 6PUNT · 8 plays · 23 yds
Q1 8:21
Jacob De Jesus run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 10
81.9%
+3.8
Q1 7:50
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jordan King
81.9%
0.0
Q1 7:44
California Penalty, False Start (Frederick Williams III) to the CAL 5
81.9%
0.0
Q1 7:43
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 23 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST down
81.9%
0.0
Q1 7:19
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 2 yds to the CAL 30
81.9%
0.0
Q1 6:41
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the CAL 36
81.9%
0.0
Q1 6:14
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond Grizzell
82.3%
+0.4
Q1 6:03
Michael Kern punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 30
81.9%
-0.4
UNC · Drive 7TD · 5 plays · 70 yds
Q1 6:03
Benjamin Hall run for 5 yds to the UNC 35
79.3%
-2.6
Q1 5:26
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 37 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST down
79.3%
0.0
Q1 5:02
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Benjamin Hall
77.5%
-1.8
Q1 4:57
Lopez, Gio pass incomplete to Leacock, Nathan, PENALTY CAL holding (Masses, Hezekiah) 10 yards to the CAL18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.
77.4%
-0.1
Q1 4:48
Benjamin Hall run for 18 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
65.0%
-12.4
CAL · Drive 8TD · 14 plays · 75 yds
Q1 4:48
Rece Verhoff kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
67.4%
+2.4
Q1 4:48
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De Jesus
70.0%
+2.6
Q1 4:44
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the CAL 30
70.0%
0.0
Q1 4:07
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mark Hamper for 12 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST down
70.0%
0.0
Q1 3:40
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the CAL 42
70.7%
+0.7
Q1 3:02
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De Jesus
70.7%
0.0
Q1 2:57
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 23 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST down
70.5%
-0.2
Q1 2:33
Timeout North Carolina, clock 02:33
70.7%
+0.3
Q1 2:32
Kendrick Raphael run for 9 yds to the UNC 26
70.7%
0.0
Q1 1:58
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete
69.6%
-1.1
Q1 1:51
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason Mini
69.4%
-0.2
Q1 1:47
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the UNC 24 for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (D'Antre Robinson) to the UNC 12 for a 1ST down
69.1%
-0.4
Q1 1:21
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the UNC 7
69.6%
+0.6
Q1 0:42
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
80.1%
+10.4
UNC · Drive 9PUNT · 7 plays · 15 yds
Q1 0:42
Michael Luckhurst kickoff for 61 yds , Jaylen McGill return for 17 yds to the UNC 21
79.3%
-0.8
Q1 0:35
California Penalty, Delay of Game (Tyson Ford) to the UNC 26
77.6%
-1.7
Q1 0:00
Benjamin Hall run for 12 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST down
77.6%
-0.1
Q2 15:00
Gio Lopez pass complete to Benjamin Hall for a loss of 5 yards to the UNC 33
77.1%
-0.4
Q2 14:20
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the UNC 36
77.6%
+0.4
Q2 13:45
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Nathan Leacock North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (Will O'Steen) declined
77.6%
0.0
Q2 13:35
Tom Maginness punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the CAL 24
77.6%
0.0
CAL · Drive 10PUNT · 5 plays · 12 yds
Q2 13:35
Kendrick Raphael run for 11 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST down
79.3%
+1.7
Q2 13:05
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete
79.3%
0.0
Q2 13:01
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 33
79.3%
0.0
Q2 12:29
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 3 yds to the CAL 36
79.3%
0.0
Q2 11:51
Michael Kern punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 32
80.4%
+1.1
UNC · Drive 11FG · 11 plays · 45 yds
Q2 11:51
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 10 yds to the UNC 42 for a 1ST down
77.3%
-3.0
Q2 11:15
Benjamin Hall run for 1 yd to the UNC 43
76.7%
-0.6
Q2 10:35
Benjamin Hall run for 10 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST down
76.6%
-0.1
Q2 9:54
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the CAL 44
75.8%
-0.8
Q2 9:14
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Chris Culliver
75.8%
0.0
Q2 9:07
Gio Lopez run for 5 yds to the CAL 39
75.8%
0.0
Q2 8:23
Gio Lopez pass complete to Connor Cox for 9 yds to the CAL 30 for a 1ST down
76.0%
+0.1
Q2 7:41
Davion Gause run for 2 yds to the CAL 28
75.9%
0.0
Q2 7:05
Gio Lopez pass complete to Benjamin Hall for 5 yds to the CAL 23
75.9%
0.0
Q2 6:23
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Jordan Shipp
75.9%
0.0
Q2 6:14
Rece Verhoff 41 yd FG GOOD
70.3%
-5.6
CAL · Drive 12PUNT · 11 plays · 31 yds
Q2 6:14
Rece Verhoff kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
72.0%
+1.8
Q2 6:14
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason Mini
76.1%
+4.0
Q2 6:10
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De Jesus
76.1%
0.0
Q2 6:04
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 19 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST down
76.1%
0.0
Q2 5:25
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 4 yds to the CAL 48
76.5%
+0.5
Q2 4:58
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 9 yds to the UNC 43 for a 1ST down
76.8%
+0.3
Q2 4:33
LJ Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the UNC 43
77.1%
+0.3
Q2 3:56
California Penalty, False Start (Frederick Williams III) to the UNC 48
77.1%
0.0
Q2 3:55
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the UNC 44
76.8%
-0.3
Q2 3:26
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason Mini
76.6%
-0.2
Q2 3:15
Michael Kern punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 18
76.2%
-0.5
UNC · Drive 13PUNT · 8 plays · 16 yds
Q2 3:15
Demon June run for 2 yds to the UNC 20
72.0%
-4.1
Q2 2:37
Demon June run for 3 yds to the UNC 23
71.7%
-0.3
Q2 2:00
Gio Lopez run for 5 yds to the UNC 28 for a 1ST down
71.6%
-0.1
Q2 1:52
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Jake Johnson
71.6%
0.0
Q2 1:46
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 6 yds to the UNC 34
71.6%
0.0
Q2 1:38
Timeout California, clock 01:38
71.9%
+0.3
Q2 1:37
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Shanard Clower
71.9%
0.0
Q2 1:23
Tom Maginness punt for 48 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 1 yd to the CAL 35 California Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ja'ir Smith) to the CAL 9
71.9%
0.0
CAL · Drive 14PUNT · 4 plays · 1 yds
Q2 1:23
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the CAL 10
75.6%
+3.7
Q2 0:58
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond Grizzell
75.6%
0.0
Q2 0:56
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason Mini
75.6%
0.0
Q2 0:46
Michael Kern punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 43
75.1%
-0.5
UNC · Drive 15PUNT · 4 plays · 0 yds
Q2 0:46
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Jordan Shipp
70.9%
-4.2
Q2 0:41
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Chris Culliver
70.8%
-0.1
Q2 0:38
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Chris Culliver
70.8%
0.0
Q2 0:24
Tom Maginness punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the CAL 15
70.0%
-0.8
CAL · Drive 16END OF HALF · 2 plays · -4 yds
Q2 0:24
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 6 yds to the CAL 21
74.5%
+4.6
Q2 0:00
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Tyler Thompson for a loss of 10 yards to the CAL 11
74.5%
0.0
CAL · Drive 17TD · 14 plays · 79 yds
Q3 15:00
Rece Verhoff kickoff for 63 yds , Jacob De Jesus return for 19 yds to the CAL 21
70.8%
-3.7
Q3 14:54
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 23
75.5%
+4.7
Q3 14:29
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 9 yds to the CAL 32 for a 1ST down
75.5%
0.0
Q3 13:58
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 31
75.5%
0.0
Q3 13:28
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 8 yds to the CAL 39
75.1%
-0.4
Q3 12:59
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 2 yds to the CAL 41
75.3%
+0.2
Q3 12:07
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 15 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST down
74.8%
-0.5
Q3 11:37
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 9 yds to the UNC 35
76.0%
+1.2
Q3 10:58
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to QuaRon Adams for 18 yds to the UNC 17 for a 1ST down
77.2%
+1.2
Q3 10:15
Timeout California, clock 10:15
76.9%
-0.3
Q3 10:14
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the UNC 16
76.9%
0.0
Q3 9:33
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Kendrick Raphael
76.8%
-0.1
Q3 9:26
Sagapolutele, Jaron-Keawe pass incomplete to Grizzell, Trond, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Allen, Marcus) 14 yards to the UNC2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CAL.
76.6%
-0.2
Q3 9:22
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
88.8%
+12.2
UNC · Drive 18PUNT · 9 plays · 25 yds
Q3 9:22
Michael Luckhurst kickoff for 65 yds , Jaylen McGill return for 19 yds to the UNC 19
88.6%
-0.3
Q3 9:16
Benjamin Hall run for 7 yds to the UNC 26
85.9%
-2.7
Q3 8:42
Benjamin Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 24
85.9%
0.0
Q3 7:57
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 6 yds to the UNC 30 for a 1ST down
85.9%
0.0
Q3 7:17
Benjamin Hall run for 11 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST down
85.9%
0.0
Q3 6:32
Benjamin Hall run for 2 yds to the UNC 43
85.9%
0.0
Q3 5:55
Gio Lopez run for 1 yd to the UNC 44
86.0%
+0.1
Q3 5:12
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Benjamin Hall
86.1%
+0.1
Q3 4:56
Tom Maginness punt for 45 yds , Kyion Grayes returns for no gain to the CAL 11
87.3%
+1.2
CAL · Drive 19PUNT · 8 plays · 28 yds
Q3 4:56
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 2 yds to the CAL 13
90.5%
+3.1
Q3 4:29
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason Mini
90.4%
-0.1
Q3 4:26
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 12 yds to the CAL 25 for a 1ST down
90.4%
0.0
Q3 3:50
Kendrick Raphael run for 16 yds to the CAL 41 for a 1ST down
90.4%
0.0
Q3 3:08
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the CAL 45
91.2%
+0.8
Q3 2:38
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond Grizzell
91.2%
0.0
Q3 2:29
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Tyler Thompson for a loss of 6 yards to the CAL 39
91.2%
0.0
Q3 1:59
Michael Kern punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 16
91.1%
-0.1
UNC · Drive 20TD · 13 plays · 84 yds
Q3 1:59
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Chris Culliver
88.4%
-2.7
Q3 1:52
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Jordan Shipp
88.4%
0.0
Q3 1:27
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 20 yds to the UNC 36 for a 1ST down
88.4%
0.0
Q3 0:43
Lopez, Gio pass incomplete to Culliver, Chris, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Culliver, Chris) 15 yards to the UNC21, NO PLAY.
88.4%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shanard Clower for 31 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST down
88.4%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Jordan Shipp
87.9%
-0.4
Q4 14:55
Gio Lopez sacked by Chris Victor for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 49 for a 1ST down California Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chris Victor) to the CAL 34 for a 1ST down
87.9%
0.0
Q4 14:31
Benjamin Hall run for no gain to the CAL 34
87.7%
-0.3
Q4 13:48
Lopez, Gio pass incomplete to Hall, Benjamin, PENALTY CAL holding (Masses, Hezekiah) 10 yards to the CAL24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.
88.0%
+0.3
Q4 13:31
Davion Gause run for 17 yds to the CAL 7 for a 1ST down
88.0%
0.0
Q4 13:01
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 3 yds to the CAL 4
88.0%
0.0
Q4 12:23
Gio Lopez pass incomplete
88.1%
+0.1
Q4 12:14
Davion Gause run for 4 yds for a TD (Gio Lopez pass to Benjamin Hall for Two-Point Conversion)
68.7%
-19.4
CAL · Drive 21PUNT · 6 plays · -4 yds
Q4 12:14
Rece Verhoff kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
71.3%
+2.6
Q4 12:14
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the CAL 26
74.4%
+3.2
Q4 11:42
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De Jesus
74.4%
0.0
Q4 11:38
Sagapolutele, Jaron-Keawe rush for 8 yards to the CAL34, PENALTY CAL holding (Vatikani, Sioape) 10 yards to the CAL16, NO PLAY.
74.4%
0.0
Q4 10:59
Devin Brown pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the CAL 21
74.4%
-0.1
Q4 10:29
Michael Kern punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 47
74.9%
+0.5
UNC · Drive 22FUMBLE · 12 plays · 52 yds
Q4 10:29
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shanard Clower for a loss of 5 yards to the UNC 42
70.0%
-4.9
Q4 9:44
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 13 yds to the CAL 45
71.7%
+1.6
Q4 9:08
Davion Gause run for 1 yd to the CAL 44
70.9%
-0.8
Q4 8:25
Gio Lopez run for 1 yd to the CAL 43 for a 1ST down
71.2%
+0.3
Q4 7:29
Benjamin Hall run for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 47
70.4%
-0.7
Q4 6:53
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Kobe Paysour
70.8%
+0.3
Q4 6:48
Lopez, Gio pass incomplete to Paysour, Kobe, PENALTY CAL holding (Sidney, Cam) 10 yards to the CAL37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.
70.8%
0.0
Q4 6:43
Davion Gause run for 5 yds to the CAL 32
70.1%
-0.6
Q4 6:01
Davion Gause run for 2 yds to the CAL 30
69.9%
-0.2
Q4 5:20
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 15 yds to the CAL 15 for a 1ST down
69.9%
0.0
Q4 4:34
Benjamin Hall run for 2 yds to the CAL 13
69.5%
-0.4
Q4 3:48
Gio Lopez pass complete to Nathan Leacock for 12 yds Nathan Leacock fumbled, forced by Brent Austin, recovered by CAL Brent Austin
69.5%
0.0
CAL · Drive 23PUNT · 14 plays · 32 yds
Q4 3:48
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 22
77.0%
+7.6
Q4 3:04
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 11 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST down
78.9%
+1.8
Q4 2:22
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 31
82.0%
+3.1
Q4 2:22
Timeout North Carolina, clock 02:22
83.7%
+1.7
Q4 2:00
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 11 yds to the CAL 42
83.8%
+0.1
Q4 1:59
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the CAL 45 for a 1ST down
84.4%
+0.6
Q4 1:55
Timeout North Carolina, clock 01:55
84.6%
+0.1
Q4 1:54
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the CAL 49
84.6%
0.0
Q4 1:45
Timeout North Carolina, clock 01:45
84.6%
0.0
Q4 1:44
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line
84.6%
0.0
Q4 0:59
Timeout California, clock 00:59
87.1%
+2.6
Q4 0:58
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the UNC 48
87.1%
0.0
Q4 0:13
Timeout California, clock 00:13
89.5%
+2.4
Q4 0:06
Brook Honore Jr. punt for 35 yds , Will Hardy returns for 6 yds to the UNC 19
89.6%
+0.1
UNC · Drive 24FUMBLE · 1 play · -7 yds
Q4 0:00
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 4 yds to the UNC 12 lat. to Chris Culliver for a loss of 4 yards to the UNC 12 lat. to Gio Lopez for a loss of 6 yards to the UNC 12 lat. to Jordan Shipp for 1 yd to the UNC 12 lat. to Davion Gause for a loss of 2 yards Davion Gause fumbled, recovered by CAL Dru Polidore Jr.
83.4%
-6.2
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:14
Davion Gause run for 4 yds for a TD (Gio Lopez pass to Benjamin Hall for Two-Point Conversion)
-19.4
TD · Q1 4:48
Benjamin Hall run for 18 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q3 9:22
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
+12.2