2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Canvas Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:16 · Tahj Bullock run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:43: Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 35 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK) — WSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 8:43: Timeout Colorado State, clock 08:43 — CSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- FG · Q1 2:05: Jack Stevens 37 yd FG GOOD — WSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 42%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 5:16: Timeout Colorado State, clock 05:16 — WSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 50%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:01: Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Ademola Faleye for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK) — WSU win probability +26.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8WSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
- Q1 11:32CSU 4th & 14 at WSU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.6% before the snapGo for it64.5%−0.119% to convertField goalTheir call64.6%51% to makePunt64.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:35CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 34, down 4Close callPunted · 62.4% before the snapGo for it62.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.4%−0.3average punt
- Q1 2:05WSU 4th & 6 at CSU 20, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snapGo for it38.3%−0.238% to convertField goalTheir call38.5%75% to makePunt35.7%−2.8average punt
- Q2 12:07WSU 4th & 18 at WSU 24, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snapGo for it42.0%−1.812% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.7%average punt
- Q2 10:10CSU 4th & 12 at CSU 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snapGo for it52.4%−1.622% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.0%average punt
- Q2 5:16WSU 4th & 4 at CSU 4, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 50.9% before the snapGo for it50.3%40% to convertField goalTheir call49.7%−0.693% to makePunt43.8%−6.5average punt
- Q2 3:16CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 49, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt44.9%−1.8average punt
- Q3 13:09WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 34, up 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 72.2% before the snapGo for it73.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.7%−1.8average punt
- Q3 6:50CSU 4th & 5 at WSU 7, down 17Close callWent for it · 23.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.2%−0.234% to convertField goal23.3%91% to makePunt14.2%−9.2average punt
- Q3 3:42WSU 4th & 8 at CSU 40, up 17Close callPunted · 84.0% before the snapGo for it84.2%34% to convertField goal83.3%−1.034% to makePuntTheir call83.7%−0.5average punt
- Q4 14:20CSU 4th & 13 at WSU 46, down 17Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 13.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.1%−1.621% to convertField goal12.8%−1.923% to makePunt14.7%average punt
- Q4 12:19WSU 4th & 8 at CSU 37, up 17Close callPunted · 90.9% before the snapGo for it91.0%35% to convertField goal90.7%−0.340% to makePuntTheir call90.5%−0.5average punt
- Q4 9:36CSU 4th & 10 at WSU 49, down 17Close callWent for it · 7.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.4%−0.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.0%average punt
- Q4 7:09CSU 4th & 12 at WSU 26, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.3% before the snapGo for it5.7%−0.523% to convertField goalTheir call6.2%64% to makePunt4.2%−2.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:43WSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.5%97% to makeGo for two36.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:01WSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.2%97% to makeGo for two67.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCSUDrive 1FG8 plays · 33 yds · 3:0765% → 65%
Q1 12:05
2ND & 17
OPP 35
+3
65.4%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Tay Lanier for 3 yds to the WSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2TD7 plays · 82 yds · 2:2835% → 37%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
65.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 19 yds to the WSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+10
65.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kirby Vorhees for 10 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
63.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 35 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0164% → 63%
Q1 8:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
63.5%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Brousseau,Jackson pass complete short right to Ross,Jordan caught at CSU36, for 8 yards to the CSU36, End Of Play PENALTY CSU Holding (Beers,Rocky) 10 yards from CSU28 to CSU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+14
62.6%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Jordan Ross for 14 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+42
62.6%
Bryan Hansen punt for 60 yds , Tony Freeman returns for 42 yds to the WSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4FG12 plays · 32 yds · 4:2238% → 42%
Q1 5:47
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+9
61.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 9 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
61.4%
PENALTY CSU Offside (Tangelo,Paul) 5 yards from CSU35 to CSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+4
60.3%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kirby Vorhees for 4 yds to the CSU 15Similar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 1
OPP 15
-5
60.7%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Lester,Jonny) 5 yards from CSU15 to CSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5FUMBLE7 plays · 56 yds · 1:5757% → 58%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
57.4%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Justin Marshall for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
58.3%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Marshall,Justin rush left for 8 yards gain to the WSU30 (Humphrey,Colby; Durrance,Matthew) PENALTY CSU Holding (Martin,Christian) 10 yards from WSU38 to WSU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+15
57.4%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Brousseau,Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to Ross,Jordan thrown to WSU05 PENALTY WSU Pass Interference (Worthy III,Kenny) 15 yards from WSU48 to WSU33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+16
58.0%
Justin Marshall run for 16 yds to the WSU 19 Justin Marshall fumbled, recovered by WSU Caleb FranclSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 2:4043% → 44%
Q2 13:17
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+11
56.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Landon Wright for 11 yds to the WSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
54.8%
Zevi Eckhaus sacked by Jake Jarmolowich for a loss of 8 yards to the WSU 24Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 18
OWN 24
0
56.4%
Ryan Harris punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Dagan Myers at the CSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 1:5556% → 54%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
55.8%
Javion Kinnard run for 6 yds to the CSU 34 Colorado State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Rocky Beers) to the CSU 24Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-5
55.4%
PENALTY CSU False Start (Wortmann,Liam) 5 yards from CSU28 to CSU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
54.1%
Bryan Hansen punt for 52 yds , Tony Freeman returns for no gain to the WSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8FG12 plays · 74 yds · 4:5445% → 48%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
55.3%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Leckner,Trey) 5 yards from WSU22 to WSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
56.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 9 yds to the WSU 43Similar
Q2 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
52.5%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kirby Vorhees for 5 yds to the CSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9DOWNS6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5550% → 50%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
50.1%
(05:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Brousseau,Jackson pass incomplete short left to Antwi,Kojo thrown to CSU40 PENALTY WSU Pass Interference (Colson,Jamorri) 15 yards from CSU25 to CSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
51.3%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Tay Lanier for 9 yds to the CSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10TD9 plays · 48 yds · 2:0850% → 79%
CSUDrive 11MISSED FG13 plays · 48 yds · 0:5830% → 26%
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.5%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Tommy Maher for 2 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
29.0%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Jalen Dupree for 2 yds to the CSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
31.7%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Armani Winfield for 14 yds to the WSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
32.1%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 12 yds to the WSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4471% → 72%
CSUDrive 13DOWNS14 plays · 63 yds · 6:1229% → 24%
WSUDrive 14PUNT13 plays · 52 yds · 3:0181% → 87%
Q3 5:58
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+9
18.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for 9 yds to the WSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
16.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for 2 yds to the WSU 20Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+15
16.9%
(04:59) Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi pass incomplete deep left to Wright,Landon thrown to WSU40 broken up by Joe,Lemondre PENALTY CSU Personal Foul (Rogers,Jahari) 15 yards from WSU20 to WSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
16.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 23 yds to the CSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15DOWNS12 plays · 40 yds · 4:119% → 6%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
9.4%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Jalen Dupree for 8 yds to the CSU 17Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+23
7.9%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Tommy Maher for 23 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
8.8%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Jordan Ross for 2 yds to the CSU 42Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
7.3%
PENALTY CSU False Start (Wortmann,Liam) 5 yards from WSU43 to WSU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 13
OPP 46
-5
5.9%
Jackson Brousseau sacked by Raam Stevenson for a loss of 5 yards to the CSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:5694% → 94%
Q4 14:03
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
6.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Trey Leckner for 9 yds to the CSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17MISSED FG15 plays · 54 yds · 4:574% → 3%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
4.3%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Tommy Maher for 6 yds to the CSU 26Similar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
3.9%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 9 yds to the CSU 42Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+9
4.0%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Tommy Maher for 9 yds to the WSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
3.7%
Jackson Brousseau run for 12 yds to the CSU 39 Jackson Brousseau fumbled, recovered by CSU Lloyd AvantSimilar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 10
OPP 49
+13
3.5%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 13 yds to the WSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
3.7%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 9 yds to the WSU 27Similar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
4.0%
Jackson Brousseau sacked by Soni Finau for a loss of 6 yards to the WSU 30Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 16
OPP 30
-7
3.5%
Jackson Brousseau sacked by Soni Finau for a loss of 7 yards to the WSU 37Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 23
OPP 37
+11
3.0%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Tommy Maher for 11 yds to the WSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18END OF GAME13 plays · 43 yds · 7:0297% → 99%
Q4 3:04
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+18
1.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Leo Pulalasi for 18 yds to the CSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:01
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Ademola Faleye for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)
-26.3
FG · Q1 2:05
Jack Stevens 37 yd FG GOOD
-3
TD · Q1 8:43
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 35 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)
-2