2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · DATCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:18 · Makenzie McGill II run for 2 yds to the WSU 19 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:33: Jayden Becks run for 12 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +4.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
- FG · Q1 1:27: Jack Stevens 26 yd FG GOOD — WSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:07: Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Brandon Young Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +6.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:24: Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 6 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +7.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:39: Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 12 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +13.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 12:18UNT 4th & 1 at WSU 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.0%71% to convertField goal67.8%−0.174% to makePunt67.4%−0.5average punt
- Q1 1:27WSU 4th & 9 at UNT 9, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.8% before the snapGo for it24.9%−0.625% to convertField goalTheir call25.4%89% to makePunt21.7%−3.8average punt
- Q2 13:53UNT 4th & 15 at UNT 43, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snapGo for it71.3%−1.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.8%average punt
- Q2 10:07WSU 4th & 2 at UNT 45, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.3%57% to convertField goal24.9%−1.425% to makePunt25.6%−0.7average punt
- Q2 8:30UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 34, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snapGo for it74.9%−0.940% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.7%average punt
- Q2 5:03WSU 4th & 16 at WSU 19, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snapGo for it13.8%−1.914% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.7%average punt
- Q3 13:34WSU 4th & 5 at WSU 30, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q3 9:46UNT 4th & 2 at WSU 8, up 39Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%54% to convertField goalTheir call99.1%−0.190% to makePunt98.7%−0.5average punt
- Q3 7:23WSU 4th & 18 at WSU 17, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q4 14:51WSU 4th & 11 at UNT 39, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.127% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 8 of 8WSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:33UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.7%97% to makeGo for two68.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:33UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.1%97% to makeGo for two72.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:07UNT Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.1%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:24UNT Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.8%97% to makeGo for two91.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:39UNT Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:54UNT Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:30UNT Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:54UNT Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:57WSU Touchdown, down 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNTDrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2266% → 68%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 7 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
66.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 24 yds to the WSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+6
66.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 6 yds to the WSU 25Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+4
66.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 4 yds to the WSU 21Similar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-6
66.2%
Drew Mestemaker sacked by Caleb Francl for a loss of 6 yards to the WSU 25Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 16
OPP 25
+18
66.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 18 yds to the WSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2INT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:3233% → 33%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
67.0%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Kirby Vorhees for 3 yds to the WSU 30Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
67.0%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 3 yds to the WSU 33Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+13
67.4%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Tony Freeman for 13 yds to the WSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-60
67.2%
Jaxon Potter pass intercepted Evan Jackson return for 60 yds to the WSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4FG15 plays · 82 yds · 5:5029% → 30%
Q1 6:34
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+4
71.0%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Maxwell Woods for 4 yds to the WSU 14Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+11
71.4%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Tony Freeman for 11 yds to the WSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
71.5%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Carter Pabst for 43 yds to the UNT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+6
71.2%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Maxwell Woods for 6 yds to the UNT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
70.7%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 2 yds to the UNT 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 2:2870% → 70%
Q1 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
70.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 19 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-10
71.5%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Mestemaker,Drew pass incomplete short right to McGill II,Makenzie thrown to UNT49 QB hurried by Hughes,Michael PENALTY UNT Holding (Williams III,Tre) 10 yards from WSU49 to UNT41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+8
71.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 8 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 9
OWN 49
-10
70.8%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Mestemaker,Drew rush middle for 16 yards gain to the WSU35 (Colson,Jamorri) PENALTY UNT Holding (Dickson III,Johnny) 10 yards from UNT49 to UNT39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 19
OWN 39
+4
70.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Jayden Becks for 4 yds to the UNT 43Similar
Q2 13:53
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
70.1%
Sawyer Evans punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tony Freeman at the WSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6INT10 plays · 41 yds · 4:1629% → 28%
Q2 13:03
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+4
71.5%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Kirby Vorhees for 4 yds to the WSU 13Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+34
72.1%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Landon Wright for 34 yds to the WSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
70.1%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Leon Neal Jr. for 4 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+4
71.5%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 4 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
71.2%
(09:40) Shotgun Potter,Jaxon pass incomplete short left to Meredith,Joshua thrown to UNT27 QB hurried by Pierce,Joshua PENALTY WSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Dieu,Brock) 5 yards from UNT41 to UNT46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 15
OPP 46
0
71.7%
Jaxon Potter pass intercepted Kollin Lewis return for no gain to the UNT 30Similar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 15
OPP 46
0
71.7%
Jaxon Potter pass intercepted Kollin Lewis return for no gain to the UNT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5874% → 73%
Q2 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
73.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 6 yds to the UNT 36Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+2
74.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Gabe Blair for 2 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
73.2%
Sawyer Evans punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tony Freeman at the WSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8FUMBLE2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
UNTDrive 9TD4 plays · 19 yds · 1:0876% → 82%
Q2 7:10
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+15
75.3%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Mestemaker,Drew pass incomplete short right to Coleman,Miles thrown to WSU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WSU Pass Interference (Large,Tucker) 15 yards from WSU17 to WSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Brandon Young Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5619% → 17%
Q2 6:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
81.8%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Angel Johnson for 2 yds to the WSU 22Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+3
82.4%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Leo Pulalasi for 3 yds to the WSU 19Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+11
82.8%
Ryan Harris punt blocked by JJ Jean-Louis blocked by JJ Jean-LouisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11TD6 plays · 30 yds · 1:3083% → 91%
Q2 4:32
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+9
82.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 9 yds to the WSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
83.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Terrence Lewis for a 1ST down Washington State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jamorri Colson) to the WSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 6 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12INT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:1514% → 16%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
86.3%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Maxwell Woods for 11 yds to the WSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
86.1%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Maxwell Woods for 10 yds to the WSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
85.1%
(02:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Potter,Jaxon pass incomplete short left to Woods,Maxwell thrown to WSU40 PENALTY WSU Holding (Vaipulu,AJ) 10 yards from WSU39 to WSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 16
OWN 33
-43
84.0%
Jaxon Potter pass intercepted Shane Whitter return for 43 yds to the WSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13TD1 play · 12 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
97.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 12 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14FUMBLE3 plays · -5 yds · 0:053% → 3%
UNTDrive 15TD2 plays · 20 yds · 0:3097% → 98%
WSUDrive 16END OF HALF3 plays · 10 yds · 0:482% → 2%
WSUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:202% → 1%
Q3 13:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+3
98.6%
Ryan Harris punt for 48 yds , Miles Coleman returns for 3 yds to the UNT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18FG9 plays · 67 yds · 3:4099% → 99%
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
98.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 20 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
98.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 10 yds to the WSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
98.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Makenzie McGill II for 7 yds to the WSU 38Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+22
99.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Terrence Lewis for 22 yds to the WSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
99.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Jayden Becks for 8 yds to the WSU 8Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+2
99.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 2 yds to the WSU 10Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+2
99.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Makenzie McGill II for 2 yds to the WSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 2:151% → 1%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.3%
Julian Dugger sacked by Keviyan Huddleston for a loss of 7 yards to the WSU 18Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-6
99.4%
Julian Dugger sacked by Keviyan Huddleston for a loss of 6 yards to the WSU 17Similar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+3
99.5%
Ryan Harris punt for 54 yds , Miles Coleman returns for 3 yds to the UNT 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD10 plays · 68 yds · 4:4799% → 100%
Q3 6:41
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+6
99.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 6 yds to the UNT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
99.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 13 yds to the WSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Ethan Day for 2 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 36 yds · 2:340% → 0%
Q3 1:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+23
99.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-3
99.8%
Zevi Eckhaus sacked by Joshua Pierce for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 41Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+2
99.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Leyton Smithson for 2 yds to the UNT 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22TD12 plays · 80 yds · 5:52100% → 100%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
99.8%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 8 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+7
99.8%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Shandon King for 7 yds to the UNT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.8%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Shandon King for 5 yds to the WSU 46Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+11
99.8%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 11 yds to the WSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 5 yds to the WSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23TD18 plays · 75 yds · 6:510% → 0%
Q4 8:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
99.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Carter Pabst for 10 yds to the WSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+10
100.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Leon Neal Jr. for 10 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 15
50
+11
100.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Maxwell Woods for 11 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
100.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Carter Pabst for 12 yds to the UNT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
100.0%
(03:29) Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi pass incomplete deep left to Alleyne,Mackenzie thrown to UNT00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UNT Pass Interference (Allen Jr.,BJ) 15 yards from UNT23 to UNT08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
100.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Hudson Cedarland for 4 yds to the UNT 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24END OF GAME4 plays · 10 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:39
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 12 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+13.2
TD · Q2 3:24
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 6 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+7.3
TD · Q2 7:07
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Brandon Young Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+6.3