2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreIDHO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:26 · LJ Harm punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tony Freeman at the WSU 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q4 7:25: Art Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Cameron Pope KICK) — IDHO win probability +21.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:00: Art Williams run for 2 yds to the WSU 9 — IDHO win probability +20.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- FG · Q4 1:42: Cameron Pope 21 yd FG GOOD — IDHO win probability +20.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:03: Jack Stevens 32 yd FG GOOD — WSU win probability +28.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:03: Joshua Wood pass complete to Jake Cox for 18 yds to the IDHO 7 — IDHO win probability +11.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9IDHO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 9:26IDHO 4th & 5 at WSU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it15.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.3%average punt
- Q1 7:07WSU 4th & 7 at WSU 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snapGo for it83.6%−<0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.7%average punt
- Q1 5:04IDHO 4th & 12 at WSU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snapGo for it16.5%−0.124% to convertField goal16.5%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call16.6%average punt
- Q1 2:46WSU 4th & 3 at WSU 10, tiedClose callPunted · 81.9% before the snapGo for it82.0%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:16IDHO 4th & 6 at WSU 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snapGo for it19.0%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call19.0%62% to makePunt17.9%−1.2average punt
- Q2 11:30WSU 4th & 3 at IDHO 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.7%46% to convertField goal80.5%−0.391% to makePunt78.7%−2.1average punt
- Q2 9:25WSU 4th & 8 at IDHO 43, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snapGo for it83.8%−<0.134% to convertField goal83.4%−0.428% to makePuntTheir call83.8%average punt
- Q2 1:18IDHO 4th & 21 at WSU 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it15.5%−0.99% to convertField goal16.2%−0.327% to makePuntTheir call16.5%average punt
- Q2 0:28WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 49, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt83.0%−0.5average punt
- Q3 12:51WSU 4th & 8 at WSU 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snapGo for it81.5%−1.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.7%average punt
- Q3 9:35IDHO 4th & 13 at WSU 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snapGo for it16.5%−1.421% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.9%average punt
- Q3 4:53WSU 4th & 11 at WSU 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snapGo for it82.3%−1.826% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.1%average punt
- Q3 1:18WSU 4th & 5 at IDHO 13, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snapGo for it86.1%−0.239% to convertField goalTheir call86.3%85% to makePunt79.5%−6.8average punt
- Q4 14:58IDHO 4th & 1 at IDHO 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt11.2%−1.1average punt
- Q4 5:40WSU 4th & 29 at WSU 3, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snapGo for it57.4%−16.15% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.5%average punt
- Q4 4:00IDHO 4th & 10 at WSU 46, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 28.7% before the snapGo for it23.6%30% to convertField goal22.9%−0.723% to makePuntTheir call22.0%−1.6average punt
- Q4 1:42IDHO 4th & 3 at WSU 4, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.6% before the snapGo for it23.6%−14.345% to convertField goalTheir call37.9%93% to makePunt10.9%−27.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1IDHO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 11:30WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.5%97% to makeGo for two83.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:25IDHO Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.4%97% to makeGo for two23.1%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIDHODrive 1PUNT11 plays · 28 yds · 5:2211% → 12%
Q1 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
89.2%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Michael Graves for 7 yds to the IDHO 32Similar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
88.8%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Ryan Jezioro for 8 yds to the IDHO 42Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
88.1%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Elisha Cummings for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1088% → 87%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
87.8%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Tony Freeman for 3 yds to the WSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 3PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5514% → 14%
Q1 6:21
2ND & 2
OPP 30
-10
86.1%
(06:26) Shotgun Cummings,Elisha rush left for 0 yards to the WSU30 (Palano,Anthony) PENALTY IDA Holding (Vliem,Charlie) 10 yards from WSU30 to WSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 2:1886% → 85%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
86.3%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Leckner,Trey) 1 yard from WSU03 to WSU02. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+5
86.2%
(05:02) Shotgun Potter,Jaxon pass incomplete deep left to Meredith,Joshua thrown to WSU30 PENALTY IDA Offside (Jaskowiak,Mitchel) 5 yards from WSU02 to WSU07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 3
OWN 10
0
85.0%
Ryan Harris punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Elisha Cummings at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 5MISSED FG7 plays · 23 yds · 2:2515% → 16%
Q1 0:51
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+2
83.5%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Emmerson Cortez-Menjivar for 2 yds to the WSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6TD9 plays · 73 yds · 3:3085% → 87%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
85.1%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Kirby Vorhees for 4 yds to the WSU 31Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+14
84.7%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 14 yds to the WSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
85.0%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 17 yds to the IDHO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+25
85.0%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 25 yds to the IDHO 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+9
85.0%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Leon Neal Jr. for 9 yds to the IDHO 4Similar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+6
86.8%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 6 yds for a TD Washington State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Joshua Meredith) to the IDHO 0 (Jack Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 7FUMBLE3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4514% → 14%
WSUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0087% → 86%
Q2 9:25
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
86.3%
Jaxon Potter punt for 40 yds , Aaron Kinsey returns for no gain to the IDHO 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 9PUNT18 plays · 53 yds · 7:5913% → 14%
Q2 7:58
3RD & 4
OWN 9
-2
87.2%
Joshua Wood run for 5 yds to the IDHO 14 for a 1ST down Idaho Penalty, Personal Foul (Joshua Wood) to the IDHO 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+8
86.4%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Ryan Jezioro for 8 yds to the IDHO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
86.0%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Ryan Jezioro for 10 yds to the IDHO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
85.4%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Art Williams for 3 yds to the IDHO 42Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+15
84.1%
(02:18) Shotgun Wood,Joshua rush left for 3 yards loss to the IDA49 (Terrell,Isaac; Palano,Anthony) PENALTY WSU Face Mask (Tucker,Malijah) 15 yards from WSU48 to WSU33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10END OF HALF12 plays · 36 yds · 1:1387% → 88%
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+10
86.6%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Tony Freeman for 10 yds to the WSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
86.4%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Kirby Vorhees for 5 yds to the WSU 25Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+15
86.3%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 15 yds to the WSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+9
86.3%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Tony Freeman for 9 yds to the WSU 49Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
87.6%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 1 yd to the WSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 12 yds · 2:0285% → 84%
IDHODrive 12PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 3:1316% → 16%
Q3 10:49
2ND & 13
OPP 47
-11
83.0%
Joshua Wood run for 4 yds to the IDHO 43 Idaho Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Joshua Wood) to the IDHO 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 4:4286% → 84%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
85.5%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Tripp,Ashton) 5 yards from WSU10 to WSU05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 16
OWN 4
-2
85.1%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Faleye,Ademola) 2 yards from WSU04 to WSU02. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+6
85.2%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Tony Freeman for 6 yds to the WSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
86.0%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Trey Leckner for 17 yds to the WSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
86.6%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Branden Ganashamoorthy for 1 yd to the WSU 38Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-2
86.7%
Kirby Vorhees run for a loss of 2 yards to the WSU 36 Kirby Vorhees fumbled, recovered by WSU Kirby VorheesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 14FUMBLE3 plays · -4 yds · 1:2917% → 16%
WSUDrive 15FG4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5488% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 16TD17 plays · 75 yds · 8:4512% → 33%
WSUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -19 yds · 1:2476% → 73%
IDHODrive 18PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3534% → 30%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19FUMBLE5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3379% → 86%
IDHODrive 20FG6 plays · 7 yds · 0:1835% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21FG11 plays · 59 yds · 1:2559% → 96%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
58.9%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Tony Freeman for 19 yds to the WSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
63.4%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Tony Freeman for 6 yds to the IDHO 49Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
65.0%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Kirby Vorhees for 3 yds to the IDHO 46Similar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
67.8%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Kirby Vorhees for 2 yds to the IDHO 33Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+4
67.6%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Kirby Vorhees for 4 yds to the IDHO 29Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+14
64.9%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Leo Pulalasi for 14 yds to the IDHO 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 22Uncategorized2 plays · -18 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:03
Jack Stevens 32 yd FG GOOD
+28.3
TD · Q4 7:25
Art Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Cameron Pope KICK)
-21
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:00
Art Williams run for 2 yds to the WSU 9
-20.9