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ORST

Oregon State 14 at Tulsa 31

TLSA
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:33 · (03:33) #38 A.Winsor punt 54 yards to the Tulsa05 fair catch by #19 G.Tempest at Tulsa05
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Home team on offense+11.8Score differential+4.2Garbage-time factor+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Blowout margin+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:14: (08:21) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #80 B.Foley caught at OSU05, for 6 yards to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:14 #11 S.Morgan kick attempt good (H: #29 A.Davies, LS: #42 A.Fedigan) — TLSA win probability +3.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 5:33: (05:33) #11 S.Morgan field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #29 A.Davies, LS: #42 A.Fedigan), clock 05:33 — TLSA win probability +5.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:53: (01:00) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the OSU24 (#2 A.Sullivan; #44 T.Hickle) — TLSA win probability +4.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:32: (12:33) Shotgun #80 B.Foley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:32 #11 S.Morgan kick attempt good (H: #29 A.Davies, LS: #42 A.Fedigan) — TLSA win probability +8.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:57: (02:01) #10 T.Ti'a pass complete short middle to #1 D.Wells Jr. caught at Tulsa00, for 4 yards to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:57 #18 K.Boschma pass attempt Successful — ORST win probability +2.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ORST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:47ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:59ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:44ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:27TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:09ORST 4th & 4 at TLSA 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    32.7%−1.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:59TLSA 4th & 11 at ORST 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    69.8%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:10ORST 4th & 17 at ORST 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:33TLSA 4th & 4 at ORST 7, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.3%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−7.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:33ORST 4th & 20 at ORST 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−3.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:46TLSA 4th & 3 at ORST 24, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.1%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    83.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−6.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:04ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:15ORST 4th & 3 at TLSA 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:14TLSA 4th & 2 at ORST 24, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:16ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 35, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:41TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 41, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:27TLSA 4th & 3 at ORST 40, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:36TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:14TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:32TLSA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:18TLSA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:49ORST Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:57ORST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0151% → 50%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
49.5%
(14:54) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OSU22 (#11 J.Burnett; #21 S.Smith)Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
49.6%
(14:24) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #7 T.Walker thrown to OSU25Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+2
49.6%
(14:19) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson pass complete short left to #0 A.Hankerson caught at OSU21, for 2 yards to the OSU24 (#0 R.Coney)Similar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
49.8%
(13:51) #38 A.Winsor punt 49 yards to the Tulsa27 fair catch by #19 G.Tempest at Tulsa27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:0650% → 52%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
49.7%
(13:46) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa31 (#2 A.Sullivan; #6 J.Patterson)Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+10
49.8%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #21 D.Richardson caught at Tulsa26, for 5 yards to the Tulsa36 (#6 J.Patterson; #47 T.Blake) PENALTY Tulsa Holding (#80 B.Foley) 10 yards from Tulsa31 to Tulsa21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+40
49.8%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #80 B.Foley caught at Tulsa34, for 40 yards to the OSU39 (#6 J.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
50.3%
(12:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 3 yards loss to the OSU42 (#90 J.Johnson)Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+18
50.3%
(12:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes rush middle for 18 yards gain to the OSU24, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
51.8%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 24 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:36, 1ST DOWN #11 S.Morgan kick attempt good (H: #29 A.Davies, LS: #42 A.Fedigan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2349% → 48%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
51.4%
(11:26) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 0 yards to the OSU10 (#10 T.Hardiman)Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
51.8%
(10:45) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson pass incomplete deep middle to #7 T.Walker thrown to OSU48 QB hurried by #32 H.BallSimilar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+6
52.0%
(10:45) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson pass complete short left to #1 D.Wells Jr. caught at OSU06, for 6 yards to the OSU16 (#0 R.Coney; #21 S.Smith)Similar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
52.5%
(10:03) #38 A.Winsor punt 35 yards to the Tulsa49, out of bounds at Tulsa49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:4153% → 57%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
52.9%
(09:57) Shotgun #2 A.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OSU47 (#98 T.Collins; #19 T.Glasper)Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+17
53.4%
(09:26) Shotgun #2 A.Allen rush right for 17 yards gain to the OSU30 (#22 J.Tucker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
53.6%
(08:56) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes rush middle for 9 yards gain to the OSU21 (#47 T.Blake)Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+15
54.0%
(08:21) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete deep left to #7 Z.Steptoe thrown to OSU01, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (#19 T.Glasper) 15 yards from OSU21 to OSU06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
57.2%
(08:21) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #80 B.Foley caught at OSU05, for 6 yards to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:14 #11 S.Morgan kick attempt good (H: #29 A.Davies, LS: #42 A.Fedigan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 3:2744% → 41%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.9%
(08:14) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #7 T.Walker thrown to OSU30Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.0%
(08:09) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OSU29 (#0 R.Coney; #33 W.Alexander)Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
56.7%
(07:27) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson pass complete short middle to #1 D.Wells Jr. caught at OSU33, for 13 yards to the OSU42 (#21 S.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
56.8%
(07:02) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OSU43 (#90 J.Hjelle)Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
57.3%
(06:29) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Wells Jr. thrown to OSU47Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+12
57.5%
(06:25) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson pass complete short middle to #1 D.Wells Jr. caught at OSU48, for 12 yards to the Tulsa45 (#21 S.Smith), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY OSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#1 D.Wells Jr.) 15 yards from Tulsa45 to OSU40Similar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
57.5%
(06:12) Shotgun #21 C.Hatcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OSU43 (#7 E.Green; #15 A.Williams)Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
57.9%
(05:38) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush right for 3 yards gain to the OSU46 (#19 T.Cooper; #99 T.Newhouse)Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
58.3%
(04:52) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #8 B.Caufield thrown to OSU50Similar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
59.0%
(04:49) #38 A.Winsor punt 40 yards to the Tulsa14 fair catch by #19 G.Tempest at Tulsa14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1260% → 61%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
60.4%
(04:44) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Tulsa20 (#2 A.Sullivan)Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 4
OWN 20
-2
60.8%
(04:12) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 2 yards loss to the Tulsa18 (#44 T.Hickle; #98 T.Collins)Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
61.0%
(03:34) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short middle to #18 D.Gee Jr. thrown to Tulsa21 broken up by #2 A.Sullivan PENALTY Tulsa Holding declinedSimilar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
60.5%
(03:31) #29 A.Davies punt 44 yards to the OSU38 fair catch by #7 T.Walker at OSU38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:1440% → 38%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
60.1%
(03:25) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush right for 5 yards gain to the OSU43 (#10 T.Hardiman)Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
60.4%
(02:47) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson pass complete short left to #1 D.Wells Jr. caught at OSU46, for 3 yards to the OSU46 (#7 E.Green)Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+8
60.2%
(02:11) #0 A.Hankerson rush right for 8 yards gain to the Tulsa46 (#16 D.Robinson; #90 J.Hjelle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
60.7%
(01:36) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson rush right for 7 yards gain to the Tulsa39, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-1
60.8%
(00:56) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush left for 1 yard loss to the Tulsa40 (#26 J.Anglin)Similar
Q1 0:17
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
61.6%
(00:21) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #0 A.Hankerson thrown to Tulsa37Similar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 4
OPP 40
-10
62.1%
(00:17) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson sacked for loss of 10 yards to the Tulsa50 (#88 N.Johnson), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:0866% → 67%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
50
+11
65.5%
(00:07) Shotgun #1 B.Presley rush left for 11 yards gain to the OSU39 (#88 A.Alfieri), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
65.7%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 A.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OSU35 (#47 T.Blake)Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+1
66.3%
(14:21) Shotgun #2 A.Allen rush left for 1 yard gain to the OSU34 (#47 T.Blake; #88 A.Alfieri)Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+9
66.4%
(13:48) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes rush middle for 9 yards gain to the OSU25 (#47 T.Blake), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Tulsa UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#52 I.Mayes) 15 yards from OSU25 to OSU40Similar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
67.2%
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #19 G.Tempest caught at OSU45, for 1 yard to the OSU39 (#47 T.Blake)Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-1
67.5%
(13:07) Shotgun #2 A.Allen rush right for 1 yard loss to the OSU40 (#98 T.Collins)Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-1
67.4%
(12:35) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #19 G.Tempest caught at OSU43, for 1 yard loss to the OSU41 (#47 T.Blake)Similar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
66.8%
(12:03) #29 A.Davies punt 33 yards to the OSU08 fair catch by #7 T.Walker at OSU08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:4434% → 31%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
65.9%
(11:56) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OSU09 (#54 B.Turner Jr.)Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
66.5%
(11:19) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #7 T.Walker thrown to OSU19Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+8
66.9%
(11:18) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson pass complete short right to #0 A.Hankerson caught at OSU12, for 8 yards to the OSU17 (#15 A.Williams) PENALTY Tulsa Roughing The Passer (#54 B.Turner Jr.) 15 yards from OSU17 to OSU32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
65.9%
(10:50) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson pass incomplete deep right to #12 Z.Card thrown to Tulsa25 PENALTY Tulsa Offside (#88 N.Johnson) 5 yards from OSU32 to OSU37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+4
65.4%
(10:41) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OSU41 (#15 A.Williams)Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+3
65.7%
(10:04) Shotgun #21 C.Hatcher Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the OSU44 (#32 H.Ball; #0 R.Coney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
67.0%
(09:21) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson sacked for loss of 8 yards to the OSU36 (#19 T.Cooper)Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 18
OWN 36
+1
68.2%
(08:52) Shotgun #21 C.Hatcher Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the OSU37 (#1 C.Lewis; #19 T.Cooper)Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 17
OWN 37
0
68.9%
(08:20) Shotgun #5 G.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to #82 G.Milbourn thrown to OSU38Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 17
OWN 37
0
69.5%
(08:10) #5 G.Johnson punt 13 yards to the OSU50, out of bounds at Tulsa50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:3571% → 78%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
50
+15
70.7%
(08:08) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete deep left to #19 G.Tempest thrown to OSU10 PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (#0 K.Singleton) 15 yards from Tulsa50 to OSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
71.2%
(07:58) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #80 B.Foley caught at OSU30, for 6 yards to the OSU29 (#47 T.Blake)Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+5
71.7%
(07:25) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes rush right for 1 yard gain to the OSU28, out of bounds at OSU28 PENALTY Tulsa Illegal Formation 5 yards from OSU29 to OSU34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+21
72.0%
(07:02) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short middle to #80 B.Foley caught at OSU35, for 21 yards to the OSU13 (#0 K.Singleton; #17 S.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
72.5%
(06:32) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #80 B.Foley thrown to OSU00Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
72.6%
(06:19) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #18 D.Gee Jr. thrown to OSU00Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+6
72.1%
(06:14) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #21 D.Richardson caught at OSU08, for 6 yards to the OSU07 (#2 A.Sullivan; #0 K.Singleton)Similar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
77.7%
(05:33) #11 S.Morgan field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #29 A.Davies, LS: #42 A.Fedigan), clock 05:33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 1:5125% → 22%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
75.1%
(05:25) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OSU42 (#26 J.Anglin)Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
75.5%
(05:02) Shotgun #6 M.Murphy pass complete short right to #1 D.Wells Jr. caught at OSU48, for 7 yards to the OSU49 (#7 E.Green)Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
74.8%
(04:45) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa49 (#0 R.Coney; #26 J.Anglin), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Tulsa UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct declinedSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
75.5%
(03:45) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa47 (#18 Z.Williams) PENALTY OSU Holding (#70 Z.Esty) 10 yards from Tulsa49 to OSU41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 20
OWN 41
0
77.6%
(03:45) Shotgun #6 M.Murphy pass incomplete short right to #7 T.Walker thrown to OSU48 broken up by #18 Z.WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 20
OWN 41
0
77.7%
(03:33) Shotgun #6 M.Murphy pass incomplete short left to #7 T.Walker thrown to Tulsa40Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 20
OWN 41
0
77.9%
(03:33) Shotgun #6 M.Murphy pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Wells Jr. thrown to OSU40Similar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 20
OWN 41
0
78.2%
(03:33) #38 A.Winsor punt 54 yards to the Tulsa05 fair catch by #19 G.Tempest at Tulsa05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12DOWNS
13 plays · 68 yds · 2:4280% → 84%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
80.1%
(03:32) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush left for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa09 (#2 A.Sullivan; #18 K.Wallin)Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+8
80.3%
(02:55) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Tulsa17 (#47 T.Blake; #0 K.Singleton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
81.2%
(02:27) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #18 D.Gee Jr. thrown to Tulsa21 broken up by #0 K.SingletonSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+38
81.2%
(02:15) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete deep right to #18 D.Gee Jr. caught at OSU45, for 38 yards to the OSU45 (#22 J.Tucker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
81.2%
(01:57) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush left for 6 yards gain to the OSU39 (#44 T.Hickle)Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+8
81.5%
(01:26) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes rush right for 8 yards gain to the OSU31, out of bounds at OSU31, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
81.8%
(01:22) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OSU25 (#47 T.Blake; #17 S.Thomas)Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+2
82.0%
(01:04) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #80 B.Foley caught at OSU26, for 2 yards to the OSU23 (#17 S.Thomas; #8 S.Vadrawale III)Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 2
OPP 23
-1
83.1%
(01:00) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the OSU24 (#2 A.Sullivan; #44 T.Hickle)Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 3
OPP 24
-3
83.7%
(00:46) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #80 B.Foley caught at OSU27, for 3 yards loss to the OSU27 (#0 K.Singleton), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:3720% → 19%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
79.7%
(00:44) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OSU28 (#9 D.Collins; #99 T.Newhouse)Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
80.0%
(00:23) Shotgun #6 M.Murphy pass incomplete short left to #14 E.Freauff thrown to OSU43Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+5
80.2%
PENALTY OSU False Start (#64 R.Berger) 5 yards from OSU28 to OSU23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+4
80.4%
(00:19) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OSU27 (#99 T.Newhouse; #18 Z.Williams)Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
80.9%
(00:15) #38 A.Winsor punt 61 yards to the Tulsa12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
83.8%
(00:02) Kneel down by Tulsa at Tulsa11 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2081% → 92%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
81.4%
(15:00) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush right for 22 yards gain to the Tulsa47 (#6 J.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
82.4%
(14:33) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #80 B.Foley caught at OSU38, for 23 yards to the OSU30 (#6 J.Patterson; #22 J.Tucker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+24
82.5%
(14:02) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush left for 24 yards gain to the OSU06 (#10 Z.Saez; #8 S.Vadrawale III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
83.3%
(13:15) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OSU05 (#59 T.Pome'e; #44 T.Hickle)Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
83.8%
(12:37) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #19 G.Tempest thrown to OSU00Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
91.9%
(12:33) Shotgun #80 B.Foley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:32 #11 S.Morgan kick attempt good (H: #29 A.Davies, LS: #42 A.Fedigan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 63 yds · 6:128% → 5%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
91.6%
(12:29) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OSU10 (#99 T.Newhouse)Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+6
92.0%
(11:54) Shotgun #6 M.Murphy pass complete short right to #7 T.Walker caught at OSU10, for 6 yards to the OSU16 (#0 R.Coney; #33 W.Alexander)Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+5
92.9%
(11:15) Shotgun #26 S.Allah rush left for 5 yards gain to the OSU21 (#0 R.Coney; #19 T.Cooper), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
93.1%
(10:41) Shotgun #26 S.Allah rush left for 3 yards gain to the OSU24 (#3 J.Drew; #33 W.Alexander)Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+27
93.4%
(10:00) Shotgun #6 M.Murphy pass complete deep left to #7 T.Walker caught at OSU45, for 27 yards to the Tulsa49 (#15 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
93.3%
(09:29) Shotgun #26 S.Allah rush right for 0 yards to the Tulsa49 (#10 T.Hardiman)Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+11
93.7%
(08:54) Shotgun #6 M.Murphy pass complete short left to #17 M.Durant caught at Tulsa45, for 11 yards to the Tulsa38, out of bounds at Tulsa38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
93.9%
(08:24) Shotgun #6 M.Murphy pass complete short right to #0 A.Hankerson caught at Tulsa37, for 5 yards to the Tulsa33 (#24 B.Garrett)Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+3
93.3%
(07:46) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush right for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa30 (#11 J.Burnett; #99 T.Newhouse)Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-1
94.1%
(06:59) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Tulsa31 (#99 T.Newhouse; #15 A.Williams)Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+2
94.9%
(06:16) Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush right for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa29 (#33 W.Alexander; #13 N.Campbell), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:5496% → 97%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
95.5%
(06:11) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush right for 0 yards to the Tulsa29 (#2 A.Sullivan; #98 T.Collins)Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+12
95.6%
(05:40) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush right for 12 yards gain to the Tulsa41 (#95 T.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.1%
(05:00) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete deep right to #7 Z.Steptoe thrown to OSU30 broken up by #6 J.Patterson QB hurried by #25 N.TaylorSimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
96.1%
(04:57) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush left for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa44 (#18 K.Wallin; #1 M.White)Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+24
96.8%
(04:18) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete deep left to #15 J.Smith caught at OSU32, for 24 yards to the OSU32, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
97.0%
(03:42) Shotgun #2 A.Allen rush right for 5 yards gain to the OSU27 (#26 H.Howard)Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
97.2%
(03:00) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete deep left to #19 G.Tempest thrown to OSU00Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+3
97.2%
(02:55) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OSU24 (#95 T.Hill; #44 T.Hickle)Similar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 2
OPP 24
-10
97.1%
(02:14) Tulsa rush middle for 10 yards loss to the OSU34 fumbled by Tulsa at OSU34 recovered by Tulsa #11 S.Morgan at OSU34, End Of Play, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:493% → 3%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
97.0%
(02:13) Shotgun #6 M.Murphy pass incomplete deep right to #12 Z.Card thrown to Tulsa14 broken up by #3 J.DrewSimilar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
97.0%
(02:05) Shotgun #26 S.Allah rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OSU35 (#16 D.Robinson; #32 H.Ball)Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
97.4%
(01:30) Shotgun #6 M.Murphy pass incomplete short middle to #8 B.Caufield thrown to OSU45Similar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+22
97.3%
(01:27) #38 A.Winsor punt 52 yards to the Tulsa13 #19 G.Tempest return 31 yards to the Tulsa44 (#34 J.Reichle) PENALTY Tulsa Personal Foul (#4 A.Romphf) 15 yards from Tulsa35 to Tulsa20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:4497% → 100%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
97.4%
(01:05) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush left for 13 yards gain to the Tulsa33 (#1 M.White), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
97.7%
(00:34) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush right for 17 yards gain to the Tulsa50 (#6 J.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
50
+2
97.9%
(14:57) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OSU48 (#98 T.Collins)Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
98.1%
(14:17) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OSU45 (#2 A.Sullivan; #88 A.Alfieri) PENALTY OSU Face Mask (#98 T.Collins) 15 yards from OSU45 to OSU30, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
98.3%
(13:52) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes sacked for loss of 1 yard to the OSU31 (#90 J.Johnson)Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+31
99.7%
(13:22) Shotgun #2 A.Allen rush left for 31 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:18, 1ST DOWN #11 S.Morgan kick attempt good (H: #29 A.Davies, LS: #42 A.Fedigan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:190% → 1%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.8%
(13:08) Shotgun #10 T.Ti'a sacked for loss of 10 yards to the OSU15 (#0 R.Coney)Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+5
99.8%
(12:51) Shotgun #21 C.Hatcher Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OSU20 (#21 S.Smith; #0 R.Coney)Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+15
99.8%
(12:11) Shotgun #10 T.Ti'a pass complete short middle to #18 K.Boschma caught at OSU30, for 15 yards to the OSU35 (#35 C.Turner III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+43
99.8%
(11:30) Shotgun #10 T.Ti'a pass complete deep middle to #7 T.Walker caught at Tulsa44, for 43 yards to the Tulsa22 (#7 E.Green), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
99.8%
(10:50) Shotgun #21 C.Hatcher Jr. rush left for 10 yards gain to the Tulsa12 (#15 A.Williams; #10 T.Hardiman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
99.8%
(10:13) Shotgun #21 C.Hatcher Jr. rush right for 2 yards loss to the Tulsa14 (#0 R.Coney; #90 J.Hjelle)Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+11
99.9%
(09:39) Shotgun #10 T.Ti'a rush middle for 11 yards gain to the Tulsa03 (#3 J.Drew; #15 A.Williams)Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
99.4%
(08:49) #10 T.Ti'a pass complete short left to #7 T.Walker caught at Tulsa02, for 3 yards to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:49, 1ST DOWN #10 T.Ti'a pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:57100% → 100%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.5%
(08:40) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush left for 0 yards to the Tulsa27 (#91 J.Hill; #47 T.Blake)Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
99.6%
(07:57) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush right for 8 yards gain to the Tulsa35 (#1 M.White; #47 T.Blake)Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+5
99.6%
(07:20) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush right for 5 yards gain to the Tulsa40 (#6 J.Patterson; #32 W.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.7%
(06:41) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush left for 1 yard gain to the Tulsa41 (#2 A.Sullivan; #32 W.Harris)Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
99.7%
(06:01) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Tulsa42 (#33 S.Craig; #98 T.Collins)Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-1
99.7%
(05:18) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush left for 1 yard loss to the Tulsa41 (#33 S.Craig)Similar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
99.7%
(04:41) #29 A.Davies punt 45 yards to the OSU14 fair catch by #7 T.Walker at OSU14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 2:390% → 3%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
99.7%
(04:41) #10 T.Ti'a pass incomplete short middle to #82 G.Milbourn thrown to OSU20 broken up by #18 Z.WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+16
99.7%
(04:33) #10 T.Ti'a pass complete short right to #1 D.Wells Jr. caught at OSU18, for 16 yards to the OSU30 (#18 Z.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
99.7%
(04:20) #10 T.Ti'a pass complete short right to #0 A.Hankerson caught at OSU33, for 9 yards to the OSU39 (#26 J.Anglin)Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+4
99.7%
(04:00) #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OSU43 (#26 J.Anglin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.7%
(03:39) #10 T.Ti'a pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.Wells Jr. thrown to Tulsa25Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
99.7%
(03:35) #10 T.Ti'a pass incomplete short middle to #82 G.Milbourn thrown to OSU47 broken up by #26 J.AnglinSimilar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+38
99.7%
(03:34) #10 T.Ti'a pass complete deep right to #7 T.Walker caught at Tulsa22, for 38 yards to the Tulsa19 (#7 E.Green), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
99.7%
(03:02) #10 T.Ti'a pass complete short left to #82 G.Milbourn caught at Tulsa10, for 13 yards to the Tulsa06 (#21 S.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
99.7%
(02:34) #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa04 (#18 Z.Williams)Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.4%
(02:01) #10 T.Ti'a pass complete short middle to #1 D.Wells Jr. caught at Tulsa00, for 4 yards to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:57 #18 K.Boschma pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23END OF GAME
11 plays · 8 yds · 1:1499% → 99%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
98.6%
(01:51) Shotgun #2 A.Allen rush right for 1 yard gain to the OSU46 (#24 T.Hopper)Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+3
98.9%
(01:46) Shotgun #2 A.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OSU43 (#80 C.Kolb)Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+3
98.9%
(01:35) Shotgun #9 S.Kittleman rush right for 3 yards gain to the OSU40 (#33 S.Craig)Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+3
98.8%
(01:28) Shotgun #2 A.Allen rush right for 3 yards gain to the OSU37 (#80 C.Kolb; #58 K.Howard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
99.0%
(01:25) Kneel down by Tulsa at OSU38 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-1
99.0%
(00:35) Kneel down by Tulsa at OSU39 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:32
(12:33) Shotgun #80 B.Foley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:32 #11 S.Morgan kick attempt good (H: #29 A.Davies, LS: #42 A.Fedigan)
+8
FG · Q2 5:33
(05:33) #11 S.Morgan field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #29 A.Davies, LS: #42 A.Fedigan), clock 05:33
+5.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:53
(01:00) Shotgun #21 D.Richardson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the OSU24 (#2 A.Sullivan; #44 T.Hickle)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com