LAF
Lafayette 13 at Oregon State 45
ORST2025 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2025 · Reser Stadium
Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadLAF aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · Skyler Jackson run for 2 yds to the LAF 22
01
Market gave ORST a 92% pregame chance
+31
02
ORST leading by 32
+6
03
ORST has the ball
+1
04
Blowout context favors the offense
+0
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Graham Smith kickoff for 42 yds
0.0
Q1 14:50
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 27
+1.7
Q1 14:20
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 29
-0.1
Q1 13:46
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 9 yds to the ORST 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 13:22
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 40
+0.2
Q1 12:58
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 6 yds to the ORST 46
+0.1
Q1 12:42
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Trent Walker
0.0
Q1 12:37
AJ Winsor punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kevin Dodard at the LAF 13
-0.1
Q1 12:29
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 3 yds to the LAF 16
-2.3
Q1 11:58
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Ethan Hosak
-0.1
Q1 11:46
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Kente Edwards for 15 yds to the LAF 31 for a 1ST down Oregon State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 11:17
Jason Penza run for 10 yds to the LAF 41 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q1 10:46
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 11 yds to the ORST 48 for a 1ST down
-0.7
Q1 10:24
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Elijah Steward
-0.5
Q1 10:15
Ethan Weber run for no gain to the ORST 48
0.0
Q1 9:20
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Mason Kuehner for 8 yds to the ORST 40
+0.1
Q1 8:54
Kente Edwards run for 3 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 8:13
Jason Penza run for 2 yds to the ORST 35
-0.4
Q1 7:36
(07:42) Shotgun DeNobile,Dean pass intercepted by Sullivan,Aiden at OSU31 QB hurried by Hickle,Takari, End Of Play PENALTY OSU Holding (Tucker,Jalil) 10 yards from OSU35 to OSU25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q1 7:36
PENALTY OSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sullivan,Aiden) 13 yards from OSU25 to OSU12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q1 7:26
PENALTY LAF Illegal Snap (Kinney,Sean) 5 yards from OSU12 to OSU17. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q1 7:00
Kente Edwards run for 1 yd to the ORST 16
-0.4
Q1 6:21
Jason Penza run for 4 yds to the ORST 12
-2.2
Q1 5:45
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 6 yds Carson Persing fumbled, recovered by LAF
-0.1
Q1 5:45
PENALTY LAF Delay Of Game 5 yards from OSU06 to OSU11. NO PLAY.
+0.4
Q1 5:42
Jack Simonetta 28 yd FG GOOD
-2.8
Q1 5:35
Graham Smith kickoff for 50 yds , Cornell Hatcher Jr. return for 23 yds to the ORST 38
+0.8
Q1 5:29
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 40
+3.0
Q1 4:56
Anthony Hankerson run for 9 yds to the ORST 49 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q1 4:22
Gabarri Johnson run for 7 yds to the LAF 44
0.0
Q1 3:56
David Wells Jr. run for 5 yds to the LAF 39 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q1 3:21
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 11 yds to the LAF 28 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q1 2:54
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 7 yds to the LAF 21
0.0
Q1 2:21
Trent Walker pass incomplete to Gabe Milbourn
-0.2
Q1 2:06
Gabarri Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 22
-0.2
Q1 1:33
Caleb Ojeda 40 yd FG GOOD
+2.0
Q1 1:33
Caleb Ojeda kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.9
Q1 1:24
Kente Edwards run for 5 yds to the LAF 30
-2.8
Q1 0:54
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Edwards,Kente rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LAF34 (Shaw,Kord; Vadrawale III,Sailasa) PENALTY LAF Illegal Formation 5 yards from LAF30 to LAF25. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q1 0:24
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Mason Kuehner
-0.1
Q1 0:00
Ethan Weber run for 30 yds to the ORST 45 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 14:57
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Hunter Ditrano
-1.5
Q2 14:53
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Elijah Steward
0.0
Q2 14:48
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Carson Persing
0.0
Q2 14:41
Christian Bush punt for 45 yds for a touchback
+0.2
Q2 14:29
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 9 yds to the ORST 29
+3.3
Q2 13:59
Salahadin Allah run for 3 yds to the ORST 32 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 13:28
Salahadin Allah run for 6 yds to the ORST 38
0.0
Q2 13:12
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 4 yds to the ORST 42 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q2 12:29
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 20 yds to the LAF 38 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q2 12:00
Anthony Hankerson run for 8 yds to the LAF 30
+0.8
Q2 11:22
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the LAF 27 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q2 10:39
Gabarri Johnson pass intercepted Jalen Edwards return for no gain to the LAF 2
-0.3
Q2 10:25
Kente Edwards run for 3 yds to the LAF 5
-3.7
Q2 9:51
Kente Edwards run for no gain to the LAF 5
-0.4
Q2 9:09
Kente Edwards run for 4 yds to the LAF 9
0.0
Q2 8:21
Christian Bush punt for 36 yds , Trent Walker returns for 27 yds to the LAF 18
-0.2
Q2 8:15
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the LAF 15
+3.5
Q2 7:45
Anthony Hankerson run for 11 yds to the LAF 4 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q2 7:09
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the LAF 2
-0.2
Q2 6:31
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the LAF 1
-1.2
Q2 6:03
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
+7.6
Q2 6:03
Caleb Ojeda kickoff for 58 yds
-0.3
Q2 5:57
Ethan Weber run for no gain to the LAF 25
-0.9
Q2 5:21
Jason Penza run for 2 yds to the LAF 27
0.0
Q2 4:44
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 33 yds to the ORST 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 4:23
Kente Edwards run for 2 yds to the ORST 38
-0.9
Q2 3:53
(03:58) Shotgun DeNobile,Dean pass incomplete deep right to Scerbo,Matthew thrown to OSU15 PENALTY OSU Holding (Singleton,Kobe) 10 yards from OSU38 to OSU28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-0.2
Q2 3:53
PENALTY LAF False Start (Scerbo,Matthew) 5 yards from OSU28 to OSU33. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 3:46
Ethan Weber run for 1 yd to the ORST 32
0.0
Q2 3:03
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 13 yds to the ORST 19
0.0
Q2 2:31
Kente Edwards run for 4 yds to the ORST 15 for a 1ST down
-1.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Oregon State, clock 02:00
+1.5
Q2 1:56
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Kente Edwards
0.0
Q2 1:53
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Matthew Scerbo
0.0
Q2 1:48
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Matthew Scerbo for 15 yds for a TD (Jack Simonetta KICK)
-15.0
Q2 1:48
Graham Smith kickoff for 49 yds
+2.1
Q2 1:38
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 5 yds to the ORST 30
+5.4
Q2 1:22
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 2 yds to the ORST 28
0.0
Q2 0:48
Maalik Murphy sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the ORST 22
0.0
Q2 0:48
Timeout Lafayette, clock 00:48
+0.1
Q2 0:40
AJ Winsor punt for 33 yds
-0.1
Q2 0:33
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 17 yds to the ORST 46 for a 1ST down
-4.7
Q2 0:30
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Elijah Steward
-1.6
Q2 0:25
Ethan Weber run for 7 yds to the ORST 39
-0.7
Q2 0:25
Timeout Lafayette, clock 00:25
+0.9
Q2 0:22
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 5 yds to the ORST 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:17
(00:22) Shotgun DeNobile,Dean pass incomplete short left to Steward,Elijah thrown to OSU15 PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Tucker,Jalil) 15 yards from OSU34 to OSU19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 0:11
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Carson Jacoby
-0.1
Q2 0:07
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Kente Edwards
0.0
Q2 0:07
Timeout Lafayette, clock 00:07
-0.1
Q2 0:04
Jack Simonetta 37 yd FG GOOD
-6.3
Q2 0:03
Graham Smith kickoff for 35 yds , Jake Reichle return for no gain to the ORST 30
+1.6
Q2 0:00
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the ORST 35
+4.1
Q3 15:00
Caleb Ojeda kickoff for 62 yds
-2.9
Q3 14:56
Kente Edwards run for 5 yds to the LAF 30
-4.1
Q3 14:32
Kente Edwards run for 1 yd to the LAF 31
0.0
Q3 13:58
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Kente Edwards
0.0
Q3 13:55
(13:58) Bush,Christian pass complete short right to Cummiskey,Tighe caught at LAF34, for 3 yards to the LAF34, End Of Play PENALTY LAF Illegal Formation 5 yards from LAF31 to LAF26. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 13:32
Christian Bush punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 25
-0.3
Q3 13:25
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Trent Walker
+4.1
Q3 13:17
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the ORST 29
0.0
Q3 12:31
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz Reddicks
-0.1
Q3 12:24
AJ Winsor punt blocked by Tighe Cummiskey blocked by Tighe Cummiskey (12:31) Winsor,AJ punt 7 yards to the OSU36 blocked by Cummiskey,Tighe recovered by OSU Singleton,Kobe at OSU36, End Of Play.
0.0
Q3 11:57
Jason Penza run for 3 yds to the ORST 33
-5.9
Q3 11:42
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Ethan Hosak
0.0
Q3 11:29
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Ethan Weber for 1 yd to the ORST 32
0.0
Q3 10:53
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 5 yds to the ORST 27
-2.0
Q3 10:49
Gabarri Johnson pass incomplete to Cornell Hatcher Jr.
+5.5
Q3 10:39
Gabarri Johnson run for 52 yds to the LAF 21 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 10:15
Anthony Hankerson run for 11 yds to the LAF 10 for a 1ST down
+2.4
Q3 9:33
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the LAF 5
0.0
Q3 9:03
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the LAF 3
0.0
Q3 8:30
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the LAF 1
-0.3
Q3 7:56
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 1 yd for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
+13.4
Q3 7:51
Caleb Ojeda kickoff for 55 yds , Jakyre Henley return for 13 yds to the LAF 23
-0.3
Q3 7:38
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 7 yds to the LAF 30
-3.1
Q3 7:15
Kente Edwards run for 9 yds to the LAF 39 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:50
Kente Edwards run for 4 yds to the LAF 43
-0.5
Q3 6:20
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Carson Persing
-1.1
Q3 6:14
Ethan Weber run for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 42
0.0
Q3 5:35
Christian Bush punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 19
+0.2
Q3 5:28
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 9 yds to the ORST 28
+3.5
Q3 5:02
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 42 yds to the LAF 30 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q3 4:15
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 10 yds to the LAF 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 3:38
Gabarri Johnson run for 20 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
+13.6
Q3 3:38
Caleb Ojeda kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.1
Q3 3:38
PENALTY LAF Delay Of Game 5 yards from LAF25 to LAF20. NO PLAY.
-2.4
Q3 3:35
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Elijah Steward
0.0
Q3 3:30
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Kente Edwards
0.0
Q3 3:25
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Elijah Steward
0.0
Q3 3:15
Christian Bush punt for 38 yds , Trent Walker returns for 14 yds to the LAF 44
0.0
Q3 2:59
Anthony Hankerson run for 9 yds to the LAF 35
+2.6
Q3 2:28
(02:33) Shotgun Johnson,Gabarri sacked for loss of 10 yards to the LAF45 (Blair,Callahan) PENALTY LAF Horse Collar Tackle (Blair,Callahan) 15 yards from LAF35 to LAF20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
+0.1
Q3 1:57
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 5 yds to the LAF 15
0.0
Q3 1:29
Anthony Hankerson run for 15 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
+2.2
Q3 1:29
Caleb Ojeda kickoff for 53 yds
0.0
Q3 1:24
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Jakyre Henley for 2 yds to the LAF 27
-0.7
Q3 0:59
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Carson Jacoby
0.0
Q3 0:54
Dean DeNobile pass intercepted Jojo Johnson return for 6 yds to the LAF 19
0.0
Q3 0:48
David Wells Jr. run for 6 yds to the LAF 13 David Wells Jr. fumbled, recovered by LAF Jalen Edwards
+0.7
Q3 0:38
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Kente Edwards for 4 yds to the LAF 17
-0.7
Q3 0:00
Kente Edwards run for no gain to the LAF 17
0.0
Q4 14:48
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Kente Edwards for 7 yds to the LAF 24 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 14:31
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Elijah Steward
+0.1
Q4 14:20
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Ethan Hosak for 4 yds to the LAF 28
0.0
Q4 13:42
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Mason Kuehner for 20 yds to the LAF 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 13:16
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Devin Paige
0.0
Q4 13:11
Ethan Weber run for a loss of 4 yards to the LAF 44
0.0
Q4 12:37
PENALTY LAF False Start 5 yards from LAF44 to LAF39. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 12:18
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Ethan Hosak
0.0
Q4 12:12
Christian Bush punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 22
0.0
Q4 12:05
Oregon State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ORST 14
+0.7
Q4 11:39
Gabarri Johnson run for 2 yds to the ORST 16
0.0
Q4 10:57
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 6 yds to the ORST 22
0.0
Q4 10:23
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Karson Boschma for 20 yds to the ORST 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 9:58
Timeout Oregon State, clock 09:58
0.0
Q4 9:49
Anthony Hankerson run for 21 yds to the LAF 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 9:20
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Karson Boschma for 28 yds to the LAF 9 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 9:00
Anthony Hankerson run for 9 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
+0.2
Q4 8:55
Caleb Ojeda kickoff for 60 yds , Devin Paige return for 15 yds to the LAF 20
0.0
Q4 8:47
Ethan Weber run for a loss of 2 yards to the LAF 18
-0.3
Q4 8:11
Jakyre Henley run for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 17
0.0
Q4 7:33
Jakyre Henley run for a loss of 2 yards to the LAF 15
0.0
Q4 6:51
Christian Bush punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ORST 35
0.0
Q4 6:39
Anthony Hankerson run for 65 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
+0.3
Q4 6:39
Caleb Ojeda kickoff for 62 yds
0.0
Q4 6:30
Jakyre Henley run for a loss of 4 yards to the LAF 21
-0.2
Q4 5:47
Payton Greer run for 1 yd to the LAF 22
0.0
Q4 5:06
Jason Penza pass complete to Jonathan Moyer for 6 yds to the LAF 28
0.0
Q4 4:29
Christian Bush punt for 31 yds
0.0
Q4 4:17
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the ORST 46
+0.2
Q4 3:46
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 12 yds to the LAF 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 2:54
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 43
0.0
Q4 2:16
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the LAF 40
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Oregon State, clock 02:00
0.0
Q4 1:54
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the LAF 35
0.0
Q4 1:04
Tristan Ti'a pass complete to Jhae Drummer for 4 yds to the LAF 31 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 0:44
Anthony Hankerson run for 7 yds to the LAF 24
0.0
Q4 0:00
Skyler Jackson run for 2 yds to the LAF 22
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:48
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Matthew Scerbo for 15 yds for a TD (Jack Simonetta KICK)
-15
TD · Q3 3:38
Gabarri Johnson run for 20 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
+13.6
TD · Q3 7:56
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 1 yd for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
+13.4