Try the model
LAF

Lafayette 13 at Oregon State 45

ORST
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Reser Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadLAF aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreLAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Skyler Jackson run for 2 yds to the LAF 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:48: Dean DeNobile pass complete to Matthew Scerbo for 15 yds for a TD (Jack Simonetta KICK) — LAF win probability +7.0 pts (now 22%) (top driver: LAF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:04: Jack Simonetta 37 yd FG GOOD — LAF win probability +3.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: LAF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:56: Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 1 yd for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK) — ORST win probability +9.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:38: Gabarri Johnson run for 20 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK) — ORST win probability +6.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:29: Anthony Hankerson run for 15 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK) — ORST win probability +4.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6LAF made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 12:37ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:54LAF 4th & 2 at ORST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:42LAF 4th & 9 at ORST 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:33ORST 4th & 4 at LAF 22, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:41LAF 4th & 10 at ORST 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:21LAF 4th & 3 at LAF 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:40ORST 4th & 13 at ORST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:32LAF 4th & 9 at LAF 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:24ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:53LAF 4th & 6 at ORST 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:56ORST 4th & 1 at LAF 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    65.6%−3.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−13.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:35LAF 4th & 7 at LAF 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:15LAF 4th & 15 at LAF 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:12LAF 4th & 19 at LAF 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:51LAF 4th & 15 at LAF 15, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:29LAF 4th & 7 at LAF 28, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:04ORST 4th & 3 at LAF 35, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6LAF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 6:03ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:48LAF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:56ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:38ORST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:29ORST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:00ORST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:39ORST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:1394% → 93%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 27Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
93.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 29Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
93.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 9 yds to the ORST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
93.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 40Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
93.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 6 yds to the ORST 46Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
93.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Trent WalkerSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
92.9%
AJ Winsor punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kevin Dodard at the LAF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 2FG
18 plays · 76 yds · 6:477% → 9%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
92.9%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 3 yds to the LAF 16Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
92.8%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Ethan HosakSimilar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+15
92.8%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Kente Edwards for 15 yds to the LAF 31 for a 1ST down Oregon State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
92.6%
Jason Penza run for 10 yds to the LAF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
92.4%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 11 yds to the ORST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
92.2%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Elijah StewardSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
92.2%
Ethan Weber run for no gain to the ORST 48Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+8
92.0%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Mason Kuehner for 8 yds to the ORST 40Similar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+3
91.8%
Kente Edwards run for 3 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
91.5%
Jason Penza run for 2 yds to the ORST 35Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+10
91.2%
(07:42) Shotgun DeNobile,Dean pass intercepted by Sullivan,Aiden at OSU31 QB hurried by Hickle,Takari, End Of Play PENALTY OSU Holding (Tucker,Jalil) 10 yards from OSU35 to OSU25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
91.2%
PENALTY OSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sullivan,Aiden) 13 yards from OSU25 to OSU12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
91.1%
PENALTY LAF Illegal Snap (Kinney,Sean) 5 yards from OSU12 to OSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+1
91.0%
Kente Edwards run for 1 yd to the ORST 16Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+4
90.8%
Jason Penza run for 4 yds to the ORST 12Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+6
90.7%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 6 yds Carson Persing fumbled, recovered by LAFSimilar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 4
OPP 6
-5
90.8%
PENALTY LAF Delay Of Game 5 yards from OSU06 to OSU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
90.6%
Jack Simonetta 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:5691% → 90%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
90.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 40Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+9
90.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 9 yds to the ORST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
90.4%
Gabarri Johnson run for 7 yds to the LAF 44Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
90.4%
David Wells Jr. run for 5 yds to the LAF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
90.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 11 yds to the LAF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
90.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 7 yds to the LAF 21Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 3
OPP 21
0
89.9%
Trent Walker pass incomplete to Gabe MilbournSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 3
OPP 21
-1
89.6%
Gabarri Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 22Similar
Q1 1:33
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
89.8%
Caleb Ojeda 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:4311% → 11%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.3%
Kente Edwards run for 5 yds to the LAF 30Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
88.9%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Edwards,Kente rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LAF34 (Shaw,Kord; Vadrawale III,Sailasa) PENALTY LAF Illegal Formation 5 yards from LAF30 to LAF25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
88.9%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Mason KuehnerSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+30
88.9%
Ethan Weber run for 30 yds to the ORST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
88.0%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Hunter DitranoSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
88.0%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Elijah StewardSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
88.3%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Carson PersingSimilar
Q2 14:41
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
88.7%
Christian Bush punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5INT
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:5089% → 89%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
88.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 9 yds to the ORST 29Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
89.1%
Salahadin Allah run for 3 yds to the ORST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
88.6%
Salahadin Allah run for 6 yds to the ORST 38Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+4
89.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 4 yds to the ORST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
88.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 20 yds to the LAF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
88.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 8 yds to the LAF 30Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+3
88.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the LAF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
88.5%
Gabarri Johnson pass intercepted Jalen Edwards return for no gain to the LAF 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0413% → 13%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
86.9%
Kente Edwards run for 3 yds to the LAF 5Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 7
OWN 5
0
86.5%
Kente Edwards run for no gain to the LAF 5Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+4
86.6%
Kente Edwards run for 4 yds to the LAF 9Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 3
OWN 9
+27
86.6%
Christian Bush punt for 36 yds , Trent Walker returns for 27 yds to the LAF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:1288% → 90%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
87.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the LAF 15Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+11
87.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 11 yds to the LAF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
87.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the LAF 2Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
87.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the LAF 1Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 8TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0911% → 22%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.3%
Ethan Weber run for no gain to the LAF 25Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.2%
Jason Penza run for 2 yds to the LAF 27Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+33
89.4%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 33 yds to the ORST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
87.8%
Kente Edwards run for 2 yds to the ORST 38Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+10
87.7%
(03:58) Shotgun DeNobile,Dean pass incomplete deep right to Scerbo,Matthew thrown to OSU15 PENALTY OSU Holding (Singleton,Kobe) 10 yards from OSU38 to OSU28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
86.9%
PENALTY LAF False Start (Scerbo,Matthew) 5 yards from OSU28 to OSU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+1
87.5%
Ethan Weber run for 1 yd to the ORST 32Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+13
87.5%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 13 yds to the ORST 19Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+4
87.0%
Kente Edwards run for 4 yds to the ORST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
85.3%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Kente EdwardsSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
85.3%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Matthew ScerboSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
78.3%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Matthew Scerbo for 15 yds for a TD (Jack Simonetta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:5883% → 81%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 5 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
82.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 2 yds to the ORST 28Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-6
81.3%
Maalik Murphy sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the ORST 22Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
80.8%
AJ Winsor punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 10FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 0:2921% → 26%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
79.3%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 17 yds to the ORST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
77.4%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Elijah StewardSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
77.5%
Ethan Weber run for 7 yds to the ORST 39Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+5
77.5%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 5 yds to the ORST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
76.5%
(00:22) Shotgun DeNobile,Dean pass incomplete short left to Steward,Elijah thrown to OSU15 PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Tucker,Jalil) 15 yards from OSU34 to OSU19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
76.2%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Carson JacobySimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
76.3%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Kente EdwardsSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+37
73.9%
Jack Simonetta 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
78.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the ORST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2424% → 23%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.5%
Kente Edwards run for 5 yds to the LAF 30Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
75.6%
Kente Edwards run for 1 yd to the LAF 31Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
75.8%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Kente EdwardsSimilar
Q3 13:55
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
76.8%
(13:58) Bush,Christian pass complete short right to Cummiskey,Tighe caught at LAF34, for 3 yards to the LAF34, End Of Play PENALTY LAF Illegal Formation 5 yards from LAF31 to LAF26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
77.0%
Christian Bush punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0176% → 73%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Trent WalkerSimilar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the ORST 29Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
74.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz ReddicksSimilar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+7
73.4%
AJ Winsor punt blocked by Tighe Cummiskey blocked by Tighe Cummiskey (12:31) Winsor,AJ punt 7 yards to the OSU36 blocked by Cummiskey,Tighe recovered by OSU Singleton,Kobe at OSU36, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 14DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0428% → 27%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
71.9%
Jason Penza run for 3 yds to the ORST 33Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
70.5%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Ethan HosakSimilar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+1
71.8%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Ethan Weber for 1 yd to the ORST 32Similar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+5
73.0%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 5 yds to the ORST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:5374% → 84%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
73.8%
Gabarri Johnson pass incomplete to Cornell Hatcher Jr.Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+52
73.3%
Gabarri Johnson run for 52 yds to the LAF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
77.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 11 yds to the LAF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
76.9%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the LAF 5Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
76.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the LAF 3Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
74.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the LAF 1Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.3%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 1 yd for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:0317% → 18%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
82.6%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 7 yds to the LAF 30Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+9
81.2%
Kente Edwards run for 9 yds to the LAF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
81.0%
Kente Edwards run for 4 yds to the LAF 43Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
79.6%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Carson PersingSimilar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 6
OWN 43
-1
80.8%
Ethan Weber run for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 42Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
82.3%
Christian Bush punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 1:5083% → 92%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
82.7%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 9 yds to the ORST 28Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+42
83.5%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 42 yds to the LAF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
85.3%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 10 yds to the LAF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
92.1%
Gabarri Johnson run for 20 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:239% → 8%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.2%
PENALTY LAF Delay Of Game 5 yards from LAF25 to LAF20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
91.3%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Elijah StewardSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
91.4%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Kente EdwardsSimilar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
91.9%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Elijah StewardSimilar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+14
92.1%
Christian Bush punt for 38 yds , Trent Walker returns for 14 yds to the LAF 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 1:3092% → 97%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
92.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 9 yds to the LAF 35Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+15
92.5%
(02:33) Shotgun Johnson,Gabarri sacked for loss of 10 yards to the LAF45 (Blair,Callahan) PENALTY LAF Horse Collar Tackle (Blair,Callahan) 15 yards from LAF35 to LAF20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
92.5%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 5 yds to the LAF 15Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
97.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 15 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 20INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:304% → 3%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.4%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Jakyre Henley for 2 yds to the LAF 27Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
96.5%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Carson JacobySimilar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
96.6%
Dean DeNobile pass intercepted Jojo Johnson return for 6 yds to the LAF 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
97.4%
David Wells Jr. run for 6 yds to the LAF 13 David Wells Jr. fumbled, recovered by LAF Jalen EdwardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:263% → 3%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
96.7%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Kente Edwards for 4 yds to the LAF 17Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
96.8%
Kente Edwards run for no gain to the LAF 17Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+7
96.8%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Kente Edwards for 7 yds to the LAF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
96.8%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Elijah StewardSimilar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
96.9%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Ethan Hosak for 4 yds to the LAF 28Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+20
97.0%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Mason Kuehner for 20 yds to the LAF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
96.9%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Devin PaigeSimilar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-4
96.9%
Ethan Weber run for a loss of 4 yards to the LAF 44Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 14
OWN 44
-5
97.3%
PENALTY LAF False Start 5 yards from LAF44 to LAF39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 19
OWN 39
0
97.3%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Ethan HosakSimilar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 19
OWN 39
0
97.5%
Christian Bush punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:0598% → 100%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
97.9%
Oregon State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ORST 14Similar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 18
OWN 14
+2
97.5%
Gabarri Johnson run for 2 yds to the ORST 16Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 16
OWN 16
+6
97.5%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 6 yds to the ORST 22Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+20
97.9%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Karson Boschma for 20 yds to the ORST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
98.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 21 yds to the LAF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+28
98.1%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Karson Boschma for 28 yds to the LAF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 9 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:561% → 1%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
99.3%
Ethan Weber run for a loss of 2 yards to the LAF 18Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-1
99.2%
Jakyre Henley run for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 17Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 13
OWN 17
-2
99.4%
Jakyre Henley run for a loss of 2 yards to the LAF 15Similar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
99.3%
Christian Bush punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ORST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
99.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 65 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:010% → 0%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.9%
Jakyre Henley run for a loss of 4 yards to the LAF 21Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+1
99.9%
Payton Greer run for 1 yd to the LAF 22Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+6
99.9%
Jason Penza pass complete to Jonathan Moyer for 6 yds to the LAF 28Similar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Christian Bush punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 27END OF GAME
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:17100% → 100%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the ORST 46Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+12
99.9%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 12 yds to the LAF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
99.9%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 43Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the LAF 40Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+5
99.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the LAF 35Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+4
99.9%
Tristan Ti'a pass complete to Jhae Drummer for 4 yds to the LAF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
100.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 7 yds to the LAF 24Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+2
100.0%
Skyler Jackson run for 2 yds to the LAF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:56
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 1 yd for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q2 1:48
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Matthew Scerbo for 15 yds for a TD (Jack Simonetta KICK)
-7
TD · Q3 3:38
Gabarri Johnson run for 20 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
+6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com