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ORST

Oregon State 23 at App State 27

APP
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGSAFETYEnd of GameFG+6.9APP 72.6%Dominic De Freitas 45 yd FG GOODAWAY 21 - HOME 27 · Q3 0:50
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:50 · Dominic De Freitas 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remainingDefense timeouts
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Home team on offense+11.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Garbage-time factor+3.7Score differential+1.9Time remaining+0.1Defense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:32: David Wells Jr. run for 30 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK) — ORST win probability +11.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:32: Timeout App State, clock 09:32 — APP win probability +9.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 4:10: Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK) — ORST win probability +9.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Defense has -4 timeouts left).
  4. TD · Q3 8:41: JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 28 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK) — APP win probability +11.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:03: Maalik Murphy pass complete to Cornell Hatcher Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK) — ORST win probability +17.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:15ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:21APP 4th & 9 at ORST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:04ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:39ORST 4th & 3 at APP 11, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.2%−1.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−9.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:16APP 4th & 4 at APP 26, up 17
    Close callPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:58APP 4th & 15 at APP 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:30APP 4th & 10 at ORST 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:56APP 4th & 1 at APP 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.2%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:50APP 4th & 5 at ORST 27, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.1%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−10.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:44ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:25APP 4th & 11 at APP 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−2.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:39APP 4th & 1 at APP 29, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%−3.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:49ORST 4th & 1 at APP 1, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−19.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−27.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:30ORST 4th & 1 at APP 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−14.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−17.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:49APP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:38APP Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:32ORST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:10ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:41APP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:03ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3349% → 49%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the ORST 29Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
51.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the ORST 32Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
51.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz ReddicksSimilar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+6
51.2%
AJ Winsor punt for 60 yds , Jaden Barnes returns for 6 yds to the APP 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:3251% → 53%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
51.2%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 13 yds to the APP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
51.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 9 yds to the APP 36Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+4
51.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
51.7%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Izayah CummingsSimilar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
51.6%
Jaquari Lewis run for 2 yds to the APP 42Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+26
51.6%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 26 yds to the ORST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
52.4%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Kanen Hamlett for 3 yds to the ORST 35Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+4
52.2%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 4 yds to the ORST 39Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 17
OPP 39
+8
52.0%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 8 yds to the ORST 31Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+49
52.7%
Dominic De Freitas 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:0954% → 56%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
53.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 7 yds to the ORST 11Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 3
OPP 11
0
53.6%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+5
53.4%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 5 yds to the ORST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
56.3%
JJ Kohl run for 6 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:3645% → 43%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
55.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 8 yds to the ORST 33Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
55.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
55.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Anthony HankersonSimilar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
55.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Eddie FreauffSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
56.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz ReddicksSimilar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+14
56.7%
AJ Winsor punt for 52 yds , Jaden Barnes returns for 14 yds to the APP 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2163% → 70%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.0%
(05:02) Shotgun Kohl,J.J. pass incomplete short right to Dozier,Davion thrown to App32 QB hurried by Collins,Thomas PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Foster,Dexter) 2 yards from App25 to App27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+68
63.5%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 68 yds to the ORST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
64.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the ORST 2Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6MISSED FG
15 plays · 64 yds · 6:5036% → 30%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 27Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
64.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 16 yds to the ORST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
64.4%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the ORST 46Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+10
64.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Zack Card for 10 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
64.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 5 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
66.5%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the APP 35Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+6
66.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 6 yds to the APP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
66.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 11 yds to the APP 18 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
66.8%
(14:01) Shotgun Hankerson,Anthony rush left for 1 yard loss to the App19 (Fleming,Cam; Cooper,DeNigel) PENALTY OSU Holding (Strand,Jacob) 10 yards from App18 to App28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+16
69.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 16 yds to the APP 12Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+2
68.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the APP 10Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 2
OPP 10
-1
69.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 11Similar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+28
70.5%
Caleb Ojeda 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1881% → 82%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
81.2%
Jaquari Lewis run for 2 yds to the APP 22Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
81.6%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Izayah CummingsSimilar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+4
81.4%
JJ Kohl run for 4 yds to the APP 26Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
81.7%
Ian Ratliff punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 0:3226% → 37%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+37
74.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 37 yds to the APP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
63.3%
David Wells Jr. run for 30 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 1:2573% → 73%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
72.6%
PENALTY App Delay Of Game (Kohl,J.J.) 5 yards from App24 to App19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 15
OWN 19
0
72.8%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Jaden BarnesSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+35
72.7%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 35 yds to the ORST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
74.7%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
74.6%
PENALTY App False Start (Flowers,Will) 5 yards from OSU46 to App49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 15
OWN 49
0
74.3%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Alex SanchezSimilar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 15
OWN 49
0
73.7%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Jaden BarnesSimilar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
73.2%
Ian Ratliff punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10TD
8 plays · 93 yds · 3:3933% → 43%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
67.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 9Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+16
67.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 16 yds to the ORST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Trent WalkerSimilar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
69.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eddie Freauff for 19 yds to the ORST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
68.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eddie Freauff for 22 yds to the APP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+28
67.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 23 yds to the APP 11 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Emory Floyd) to the APP 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
66.8%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the APP 3Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
57.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11MISSED FG
16 plays · 54 yds · 3:2660% → 50%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
60.2%
Jaquari Lewis run for 2 yds to the APP 25Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+11
60.2%
JJ Kohl pass complete to David Larkins for 11 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
61.5%
Jaquari Lewis run for 17 yds to the ORST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
63.5%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 2 yds to the ORST 45Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+11
64.2%
Jaquari Lewis run for 11 yds to the ORST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
65.0%
Jaquari Lewis run for 6 yds to the ORST 28Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+5
64.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the ORST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
64.9%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Kanen HamlettSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
64.8%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Kanen HamlettSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
61.9%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Davion DozierSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
49.8%
Dominic De Freitas 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:2345% → 44%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
54.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz ReddicksSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
56.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 5 yds to the ORST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13TD
17 plays · 76 yds · 6:0460% → 77%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
60.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the APP 28Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-13
60.4%
JJ Kohl sacked by Zakaih Saez for a loss of 13 yards to the APP 15Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 19
OWN 15
+18
58.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 18 yds to the APP 33Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+2
59.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the APP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
60.8%
Jaquari Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 34Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
60.3%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+18
58.9%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 18 yds to the ORST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
63.8%
Jaquari Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 49Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
62.8%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Jaquari LewisSimilar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+10
61.5%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Kohl,J.J. pass incomplete short right to Stroman,Dalton thrown to OSU35 PENALTY OSU Holding (Glasper,Trey) 10 yards from OSU49 to OSU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
64.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the ORST 35Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+7
65.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 7 yds to the ORST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
66.0%
Jaquari Lewis run for no gain to the ORST 28Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
76.9%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 28 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2126% → 47%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
74.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 12 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
73.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 4 yds to the ORST 41Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+17
73.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 17 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
72.3%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 10 yds to the APP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
71.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 5 yds to the APP 27Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+12
71.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 12 yds to the APP 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
53.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Cornell Hatcher Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:5861% → 73%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
61.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the APP 28Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+29
61.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 29 yds to the ORST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
65.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the ORST 43Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
65.6%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Davion DozierSimilar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+11
64.1%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaquari Lewis for 11 yds to the ORST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
66.7%
Jaquari Lewis run for 4 yds to the ORST 28Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
66.9%
JJ Kohl run for 1 yd to the ORST 27Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
65.7%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Rashod DubinionSimilar
Q3 0:50
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+45
72.6%
Dominic De Freitas 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0034% → 32%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.2%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to David Wells Jr.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 7 yds to the ORST 32Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
66.2%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz ReddicksSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+10
67.8%
AJ Winsor punt for 43 yds , Jaden Barnes returns for 10 yds to the APP 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1272% → 68%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
72.0%
JJ Kohl sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 34Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
71.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the APP 34Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
69.4%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Jaden BarnesSimilar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
68.4%
Ian Ratliff punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18INT
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:4533% → 37%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
67.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 23 yds to the ORST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
63.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Zack CardSimilar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
65.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 10 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
63.5%
(12:09) Shotgun Murphy,Maalik pass incomplete short left to Reddicks,Taz thrown to App40 PENALTY App Targeting (Burks,DJ) 15 yards from App42 to App27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
60.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the APP 22Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+15
60.2%
(11:24) Shotgun Murphy,Maalik pass incomplete short left to Milbourn,Gabe thrown to App03, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY App Pass Interference (Hasz,Dylan) 15 yards from App22 to App07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
60.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the APP 6Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
60.4%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Gabe MilbournSimilar
Q4 10:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
62.8%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted, touchback. Colton Phares return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4475% → 75%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
75.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the APP 22Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
75.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the APP 23Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
75.8%
JJ Kohl run for 6 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
75.4%
Ian Ratliff punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20DOWNS
17 plays · 62 yds · 6:4429% → 25%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
70.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to David Wells Jr.Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
70.9%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for no gain to the ORST 35Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+20
73.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 20 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
66.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eddie Freauff for 7 yds to the APP 38Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+14
66.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 14 yds to the APP 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
64.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the APP 20Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
66.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 5 yds to the APP 15Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+1
70.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the APP 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
65.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Zack Card for 7 yds to the APP 7Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+4
66.4%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the APP 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
66.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the APP 1Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the APP 1Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
74.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21SF
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0595% → 86%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
94.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the APP 3Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
85.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds for a SAFETY Rashod Dubinion fumbled, recovered by APP JJ Kohl for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22INT
15 plays · 19 yds · 1:0928% → 47%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
72.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eddie Freauff for 8 yds to the APP 49Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
66.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to David Wells Jr.Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-5
70.6%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Wells,Van) 5 yards from App49 to OSU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+16
73.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Zack Card for 16 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
68.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 10 yds to the APP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
55.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the APP 29Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
61.9%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Cornell Hatcher Jr.Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
64.2%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz ReddicksSimilar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+4
64.2%
(00:34) Shotgun Murphy,Maalik pass incomplete short right to Reddicks,Taz thrown to App26, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY App Pass Interference (Mc-Cantos,Elijah) 4 yards from App29 to App25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-13
55.8%
Maalik Murphy sacked by Rondo Porter for a loss of 13 yards to the APP 38Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 23
OPP 38
-9
53.5%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted Zyeir Gamble return for 9 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 23
OPP 38
-9
53.5%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted Zyeir Gamble return for 9 yds to the APP 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
84.2%
JJ Kohl run for a loss of 4 yards to the APP 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:03
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Cornell Hatcher Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
-17.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+15.8
TD · Q3 8:41
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 28 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
+11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com